© 2018 Korn Ferry. All rights reserved 1 · •Who is CIPD? •What is futures/ horizon scanning?...
Transcript of © 2018 Korn Ferry. All rights reserved 1 · •Who is CIPD? •What is futures/ horizon scanning?...
© 2018 Korn Ferry. All rights reserved 1
‘Futures’ approach to strategic workforce planning
Wilson Wong, Ph.D
Today’s whistle-stop tour
• Who is CIPD?• What is futures/ horizon scanning?• Why futures in strategic planning?• Example of strategic workforce planning• Distilling the people issues and questions• HCM considerations• Discussion
1963We celebrate ourGolden Jubilee
The Duke of Edinburgh with Sir Ralph Perring, Lord Mayor of London, and Mr. G. R. Moxon, President of the IPM.
Championing better work and working lives for more than 100 years
1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
1913The Welfare WorkersAssociation is founded at a meeting in Rowntrees in York
1920Our first journalis published
1931We become theInstitute of LabourManagementwith a new journal to match
1937Our first officeoutside theUK opened inIreland
1946Renamed theInstitute of PersonnelManagement (IPM)
1973We reach15,000members
1994IPM joins forces with the Institute of Training andDevelopment in 1994 to create the Instituteof Personnel andDevelopment
2000The IPD is granted aRoyal Charter and sothe CIPD is born
2013We celebrate ourcentenary with more than130,000 membersin more than 100 countries
2010We expand into Asiawith a new office in Singapore
Putting the people profession at the heart of change
Work matters.People matter.Professionalism matters.
The CIPD in numbers
Annual Report 2016/17
A framework for CIPD’s knowledge capital
• Work• Workforce• Workplace
• HC metrics• Bus language of HR • Data analytics
• Behavioural science• Psychology• Neuroscience• Values and ethics• Systems thinking
• Economy• Political and regulatory
• Technologies• HR operating models • HR capabilities
Insight on Changing Context
Science of human and
organisationalbehaviour
HR & Learning Processes, Practices, Policies
Business, Commercial Insight, and
Analytics
Better work and working lives
www.cipd.co.uk/knowledge
Sources of evidence
6 steps
Europe is swamped by refugees!
• What percentage of the world’s refugees are located in Germany (2015)?
@3% <2% <1%
13.13
11.88
7.15
1.48 1.28 1.280.64 0.58 0.36 0.34
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jordon Turkey Lebanon Germany United States France Canada UnitedKingdom
Belgium Austria
Refugee population by country of location 2015
Refugees (% of UNHCR total refugee pop)
Sources: World Bank and UN
36.52
30.26
3.31
0.42 0.38 0.38 0.36 0.31 0.19 0.08
13.13
7.15
11.88
1.28 1.480.64 0.24 0.34 0.58
1.28
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jordon Lebanon Turkey France Germany Canada Belgium Austria UnitedKingdom
United States
Refugee population by country of location 2015
Refugees (% of country pop) Refugees (% of total UNHCR refugee pop)
Sources: World Bank and UN
How does your brain work?
• SYSTEM 1• Fast• Intuitive/ associative• Heuristic/ biases• Affective/ emotional
• SYSTEM 2• Lazy• Slow• Deliberate• Rational
Temporal myopia
Solutioneering is the term used to describe the act of working up a solution prior to really understanding the problem that solution is set to solve.
What’s your question?
Example
Security
Capacity
Alternatives Demand
Technology
Social
Cost of energy
Research Questions
• How is 'talent' understood in Singapore?
• What are the most significant factors shaping the understanding of 'talent‘ today?
• What are the drivers shaping the context to that understanding of talent in the next 15 years?
Research Questions
Three Components
1. Delphi Study
2. Trend Analysis
3. Scenario Building
Research Methodology
• Structured communication technique
• Forecasting method relying on a diverse panel of experts
• Experts answers in two or more rounds
Delphi Technique
Questionnaire Iteration 1 Iteration 2 Iteration 3
3 Aug - 13 Aug 28 Sept - 4 Oct
19 Oct - 25 Oct 9 Nov – 15 Nov
Drivers of change & scenario building
• After each round, a summary/ synthesis of experts’ inputs from that round is provided
• The aim is to encourage a crude convergence on the important drivers of change
Findings
Construct of Talent
• Ability to learn, evolve and adapt
• Ability to create and innovate
• Delivery of results effectively and efficiently: high performing individuals
• Potential
• Motivation• Personal
Intelligence
• Uniqueness• Past experience
/ track record
What is Talent?
Signals of Talent
Trend Data & Drivers
Demographics Technology
Environment Political Social
Economic
Labour Market
• Missed opportunities by home-grown talent due to culture
Economic Development
• Low unemployment rate
• Labour/skills shortages
• Migration rate
• Sustaining productivity
• Impact of a benign environment
• High cost of failure• Education and
calibration for the conventional
• Complacency and lower risk appetite
• Policy interventions by the state
• Conflict and instability in the ASEAN region / Singapore
• Environmental Drivers including climate change
• Pandemics
• A global financial crisis
Delphi Drivers
Culture
Policy Interventions
Wild Cards
• Evolution of the State
• Power and Ethics
• Questions of Fairness
• Talent Mobility
• Knowledge and Skills Obsolescence
Implications
Implications for strategic workforce planning
• Capability: Mobility; human cloud; data & AI
• Resilience: Surveillance; privacy; talent selection (academic qualifications?);
• Relevance: Choices; disintermediation; discontinuities; leadership; where is the value in value chains?
• Governance: Shifts in paradigm; diversity of assumptions
Futures in strategyIs
sue Corporate conversations
Iterative clarificationPrioritisation by impact across time horizonsWhether actionableAgreement
Data
& te
stin
g Identify potential drivers of changeSource reliable trend datasetsLook at historical examples of how drivers interact and the effects and actionsUnderstand the ‘weight’ of the ‘data’ on which you rely
Synt
hesis
> S
trat
egy Build scenarios using the
data inputsInclude quiet signals and ‘wild cardsTest scenarios with stakeholdersDistil areas of concern & opportunity that you can respond toIdentify red flags and trigger mechanismsBuild capability and contingency plans to respond
ISO 30409 HRM: Workforce Planning
• Workforce planning: the systematic identification, analysis and planning of organizational needs in terms of people
• Planning: process of thinking about and organizing the activities required to achieve a desired outcome
C a p a b i l i t y; R e s i l i e n c e; R e l e v a n c e; G o v e r n a n c e
See also: BS76000 Valuing people in organizations; BS76005 D & I; PD76006 L & D
People data considerations
• Uniqueness
• Quality
• Access
• Privacy
• Governance
Tine Huus (2015). People Data
HCM guiding principles
• It is possible to estimate and classify value of people as well as cost• Fairness and quality in people decisions and investments generate
organisational success • People data reveals value, cost, fairness, and quality of people
(processes) across the talent management life-cycle• Human capital metrics attempt to compensate, if not eliminate,
biases and mistakes in human judgment
Huus, T. People Data: How to use and apply HCM in your company. 2015
ISO 30414 HRM: Human capital reporting
• HC: The cumulative knowledge, skills and abilities of an organization’s people and the impact on an organization’s long-term performance, as well as the competitive advantages from optimizing organization outcomes.
• HC Measurement: Enables an organization to manage one of its most critical resources and risks. Makes evident the contribution of your human capital.
Human Governance; Measuring intangibles; Data-driven management
See also: BS76000 Valuing people in organizations; BS76005 Diversity & Inclusion; PD76006 Learning & Development
The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance, but the
illusion of knowledge.
Thank you.
Thank [email protected]@drwilsonwongHead of Insight & Futures
© 2018 Korn Ferry. All rights reserved 1