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© 2015. For information, contact Deloitte China Taking advantage of China’s transition XU Sitao Chief Economist, Deloitte China Vilnius August 28, 2015

Transcript of © 2015. For information, contact Deloitte China Primary colors R 0 G 39 B 118 R 0 G 161 B 222 R 60...

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© 2015. For information, contact Deloitte China

Taking advantage of China’s transitionXU SitaoChief Economist, Deloitte China

VilniusAugust 28, 2015

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Agenda

1

2

3

4

5

What’s China Dream

China’s global impact

China’s economic update

China’s policy

Implications for Sino – Baltic economic collaborations

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Range of Estimate

2015 2020 2025 20300

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

US China India

Japan Germany UK

Brazil Russia

China’s economy is on the verge of surpassing the US economy

Nominal GDP

EIU Prediction

(US$ B)

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The two ‘100-year Goals’ aim to break away from a middle-income trap

Prosperous and strong economy

Democratic politics

Advanced culture

Harmonious society

A modern socialist country

• First 100-year GoalIn 2021 when the CPC celebrates its centenary, China should achieve initial prosperity in all respects

• Second 100-year GoalIn 2049, PRC will be 100 years old and should become a modern socialist country

2010 20210

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Nominal GDP (US$, bn) Per capita income(US$)

Nominal GDP Affluent Society

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2008

-01

2008

-04

2008

-07

2008

-10

2009

-01

2009

-04

2009

-07

2009

-10

2010

-01

2010

-04

2010

-07

2010

-10

2011

-01

2011

-04

2011

-07

2011

-10

2012

-01

2012

-04

2012

-07

2012

-10

2013

-01

2013

-04

2013

-07

2013

-10

2014

-01

2014

-04

2014

-07

2014

-10

2015

-01

2015

-04

2015

-07

35.00

40.00

45.00

50.00

55.00

60.00

China Manufacturing PMI

2008-01

2008-07

2009-01

2009-07

2010-01

2010-07

2011-01

2011-07

2012-01

2012-07

2013-01

2013-07

2014-01

2014-07

2015-01

2015-07

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

y-o-y growth of gross import value (%)

y-o-y growth of gross export value (%)

2008-01

2008-07

2009-01

2009-07

2010-01

2010-07

2011-01

2011-07

2012-01

2012-07

2013-01

2013-07

2014-01

2014-07

2015-01

2015-07

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

CPI: y-o-y growth (%)

(%)

The Chinese economy is seeing more evidence of a broad slowdown

Source: Wind

China Manufacturing PMI

Trade

CPI

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© 2015. For information, contact Deloitte China 6Source: Wind

The PBOC should fulfill market's expectations on RMB

2015-01-15

2015-01-30

2015-02-14

2015-03-01

2015-03-16

2015-03-31

2015-04-15

2015-04-30

2015-05-15

2015-05-30

2015-06-14

2015-06-29

2015-07-14

2015-07-29

2015-08-13

6.15

6.20

6.25

6.30

6.35

6.40

6.45

6.50

6.55

USD/CNH USD/CNY

Trend of exchange rate

2008-01-14

2009-03-14

2010-05-14

2011-07-14

2012-09-14

2013-11-14

2015-01-14

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

EUR/USD Closing Exchange Rate

2008

-01-

14

2008

-08-

14

2009

-03-

14

2009

-10-

14

2010

-05-

14

2010

-12-

14

2011

-07-

14

2012

-02-

14

2012

-09-

14

2013

-04-

14

2013

-11-

14

2014

-06-

14

2015

-01-

14

2015

-08-

1476

86

96

106

116

126

USD/JPY Closing Exchange Rate

Exchange rate of USD/JPY

Exchange rate of EUR/USD

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Cons

RMB Devaluation

• Unsure about unfulfilled expectations of investors;

• Reactions from neighbors and the US;

• RMB's Internationalization drive might be derailed.

Pros

• To enhance monetary policy's effectiveness;

• To restore some competiveness;

• To reform China's exchange rate mechanism;

• Inflation is low;

• China's status as a creditor – no worries about debt overhang.

Cons

• Unsure about unfulfilled expectations of investors;

• Reactions from neighbors and the US;

• RMB's Internationalization drive might be derailed.

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“One Belt, One Road” and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) – seeking more inclusive growth models

China Partners

• To broaden the concept of “Made in China”

• China reserves +China invests

• Digest excess capacity in a win-win manner

• Geopolitical strategy

• Improve Infrastructure

• To promote a more inclusive growth model

• To go beyond infrastructure

• To speed up RMB’s internationalization

Focus on infrastructure， HQ in Beijing， Registered capital US$ 100 billion with 50% from China

Currently 60 members, including over 20 Europeans and broad representation from ASEAN, other emerging markets and the Middle East

Revival of Silk Road —— Gross project investment， US$ 43 billion

Contract foreign projects revenue

2014Y:US$ 137bn

2015Y:US$ 142.4bn

Vision for the AIIB “One Belt, One Road”

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Implications

China needs a more inclusive growth model in order to achieve the goals

Baltic countries could benefit from strategic initiatives such as "one belt, one road"

Baltic countries could take advantage of China's consumption boom


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