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...2013/01/10 · January 2013 Water Supply Briefing Steve King, NWRFC [email protected]...
Transcript of ...2013/01/10 · January 2013 Water Supply Briefing Steve King, NWRFC [email protected]...
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January 2013 Water Supply Briefing
Steve King, NWRFC [email protected]
(503)326-7291
www.nwrfc.noaa.gov
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Water Supply Summary
Most eastside Apr-Sep forecasts are near or below normal Most forecasts have been on the decline due to current dry regime. Conditions are generally driest in the south-eastern basins Wettest forecasts (above 110%) are in western Washington and in the mid latitudes of Idaho.
Issued Jan 10, 2013
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Observed Conditions
Precipitation Temperature Runoff Snowpack
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Observed Precipitation
Observed Precipitation Water Year to Date (Oct 12 – Dec 12) above Grand Coulee = 137% above Ice Harbor = 128% above The Dalles = 130%
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Temperature Departures
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Runoff Normals Update
** 30 Year runoff normals representing 1981-2010 have replaced 1971-2000 set. For all of the published locations, the updated normals are less than the 1971-2000 dataset. This is due to the relatively dry runoff period from 2001-2010 and is especially true for southeastern river basins. For The Columbia River at the Dalles: 1981-2010 Jan-Jul normal is 101 MAF 1971-2000 was 107 MAF 1961-1990 was 106 MAF
Normals and Monthly Runoff is available from link on Water Supply Forecast Page:
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Current Adjusted Runoff Conditions
Jan 1-8 Oct1 -Jan8 MICA 83 106 LIBBY 94 119 HUNGRY HORSE 106 126 GRAND COULEE 104 128 DWORSHAK 72 134 LOWER GRANITE 63 100 THE DALLES 91 116
Percent of 1981-2010 Normal
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Jan 9, 2012
Current Snow Conditions
Jan 10, 2013
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Upper Columbia Snow Conditions
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Snake River Snow Conditions
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Lower Columbia Snow Conditions
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Future Conditions
Climate Outlooks 10 Day Precipitation Forecast Water Supply Forecasts
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CPC Synopsis: ENSO-neutral conditions favored this winter and into spring 2013.
Enso: Observed and Forecast SST Anomaly (Deg C)
Source: Climate Prediction Center Weekly ENSO Update http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Latest observed: SST 3.4 ~ -0.3 Deg C
Forecast
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SST Anomaly vs Streamflow Columbia River near The Dalles
81-10 Normal = 101 MAF
La Nina El Nino
12
13
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Climate Outlook: Precipitation
Current Month Outlook Three Month Outlook
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Climate Outlook: Temperature
Current Month Outlook Three Month Outlook
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ESP 10 Day Precipitation Forecast
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Precipitation
Observed – Forecast - Climatology
O F C
Jan – Jul Precipitation Inputs to Deterministic Model
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Water Supply Forecasts
Issued Jan 10, 2013
Ensemble Streamflow Procedure Jan 10th Issuance Date Jan 9th th Ensemble Date Official Forecasts include 10 days of forecast precipitation NWRFC offers 3 and 0 day QPF (limited network and releases) Forecasts updated weekly/daily All 10 day forecasts are ‘official NWS’ Agency Collaborated Model States/Snow/Runoff updated continuously through month Compared to 30 yr Runoff Normal (1981-2010)
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NWRFC Water Supply Product
90% -> 9 in 10 chance of volume being exceeded (quite likely) 10% -> 1 in 10 chance of volume being exceeded (a possibility) 50% -> 5 in 10 chance of volume being exceeded (most expected)
‘81-’10
Zoom in on data using mouse to create display area
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Water Supply Forecast: Upper Columbia
92%
93% 95%
Rank: 36/53
Rank: 29/43
96%
Rank: 34/53
Rank: 26/43
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Water Supply Forecast: Snake
99%
95% 93%
Rank: 32/53
Rank: 23/43
98%
Rank: 22/43
Rank: 27/46
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Water Supply Forecast: Lower Columbia
105%
100% 94%
Rank: 34/53
Rank: 17/43
99%
Rank: 24/43
Rank: 23/43
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NWRFC Water Supply Webpage http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/water_supply/ws_schd.cgi
http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/presentations/presentations.cgi
Steve King, NWRFC [email protected]
(503)326-7291