2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Tobacco Taxation Frank J. Chaloupka, PhD...
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Transcript of 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Tobacco Taxation Frank J. Chaloupka, PhD...
2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Tobacco TaxationTobacco Taxation
Frank J. Chaloupka, PhDUniversity of Illinois at ChicagoInternational Tobacco Evidence Network
2 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Overview
Why tax tobacco?
Types of tobacco taxes
Impact of tobacco taxes on tobacco product prices
Effects of taxes and prices on cigarette smoking and other tobacco use
Impact of tobacco taxes on tobacco tax revenues
Conclusions
3 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Why Tax Tobacco? Revenue Generation
Efficient revenue generation Primary motive historically and still true in many
countries today Very efficient source of revenue, given:
Low share of tax in price in most countries Relatively inelastic demand for tobacco products Few producers and few close substitutes
4 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Why Tax Tobacco? Revenue Generation
“Sugar, rum, and tobacco are commodities which are no where necessaries of life, which are become objects of almost universal consumption, and which are therefore extremely proper subjects of taxation.”
— Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, 1776
5 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Why Tax Tobacco? Promote Public Health
Promote public health Increasingly important motive for higher tobacco taxes
in many high-income countries Emerging as important factor in some low- and
middle-income countries Based on substantial and growing evidence on the
effects of tobacco taxes and the prices on tobacco use Particularly among young, less-educated, and low-
income populations
6 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Why Tax Tobacco? Promote Public Health
“The Parties recognize that price and tax measures are an effective and important means of reducing tobacco consumption by various segments of the population, in particular young persons.”
— Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, Article 6
7 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Why Tax Tobacco? External Costs
Cover the external costs of tobacco Less frequently used motive Account for costs resulting from tobacco use imposed
on nonusers Can also include “internalities” that result from
addiction and time-inconsistent preferences
8 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Source: Philip Morris. (1985). Smoking and Health Initiatives.
Industry Perspective
Industry understands the importance of tobacco taxes "With regard to taxation, it is clear that in the U.S., and
in most countries in which we operate, tax is becoming a major threat to our existence”
"Of all the concerns, there is one—taxation—that alarms us the most. While marketing restrictions and public and passive smoking (restrictions) do depress volume, in our experience taxation depresses it much more severely. Our concern for taxation is, therefore, central to our thinking . . ."
9 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Types of Tobacco Taxes
Variety of tobacco taxes Taxes on the value of the tobacco crop Customs duties on tobacco leaf imports and/or exports Customs duties on tobacco product imports and/or
exports Sales taxes Value-added taxes Implicit taxes Tobacco excise taxes
10 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Two Types of Excises
Specific taxes: excises based on quantity or weight (e.g., tax per pack of 20 cigarettes)
Ad valorem taxes: excises based on value of tobacco products (e.g., a specific percentage of manufacturer’s prices for tobacco products)
Some countries use a mix of specific and ad valorem tobacco excises
Many countries apply different types of taxes and/or tax rates on different types of tobacco products For example: manufactured cigarettes vs. bidis
11 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Specific vs. Ad Valorem Tobacco Excises
Strengths/weaknesses depend on a variety of factors and goals of tax
Specific taxes Generally produce a more stable stream of revenue Real value falls with inflation Promote higher “quality” products
12 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Specific vs. Ad Valorem Tobacco Excises
Ad valorem taxes More unstable revenues given that revenues depend on
industry pricing Government effectively subsidizes industry price cuts Rises with inflation
If reducing tobacco use is a primary goal, a specific tax is generally preferred Particularly when regularly adjusted for inflation
13 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Taxes and Tobacco Product Prices
Impact of tobacco taxes on tobacco use and other outcomes depends on the impact of tax on prices of tobacco products Impact on prices will vary based on several factors,
including the following: Structure of tobacco product market Cost of tobacco product production Industry price-related marketing efforts Potential for individual tax avoidance and larger-
scale, more organized tobacco product smuggling Most evidence (largely from the United States) indicates
that tobacco tax increases result in comparable tobacco product price increases
That is, tax increases are fully passed on to tobacco users
14 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Inflation-Adjusted Cigarette Prices, U.S., 1955–2006
Source: adapted by CTLT from Tax Burden on Tobacco. (2006); author’s calculations.
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15 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Inflation-Adjusted Cigarette Taxes and Prices: S. Africa
Source: adapted by CTLT from Van Walbeek. (2003).
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16 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Source: adapted by CTLT from Chaloupka, et al. (2000).
Tax Levels and Prices Vary Widely across Countries
17 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Increases in Tobacco Product Taxes and Prices
Induce current users to try to quit Many will be successful in long-term
Keep former users from restarting
Prevent potential users from starting Particularly effective in preventing transition from
experimentation to regular use
18 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Increases in Tobacco Product Taxes and Prices
Reduce consumption among those who continue to use
Lead to other changes in tobacco-use behavior, including: Substitution to cheaper products or brands Changes in buying behavior Compensation
19 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Price and Tobacco Use in High-Income Countries
Well over 100 studies from high-income countries consistently find that: A 10% increase in price reduces overall consumption of
tobacco products by 2.5–5% Consensus estimate: 10% price increase reduces
consumption by 4% Estimated impact on sales higher in presence of
significant tax avoidance and smuggling Long-run impact larger as addicted users respond
over time to permanent increases in taxes and prices
20 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Cigarette Prices and Consumption: U.K.
Source: adapted by CTLT from Townsend. (1998).
21 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Cigarette Prices and Sales: U.S.
Source: adapted by CTLT from Tax Burden on Tobacco. (2007); author’s calculations.
22 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Price and Tobacco Use: Low-/Middle-Income Countries
Growing evidence from low- and middle-income countries suggests that the impact of tax and price increases is up to twice as large as in high-income countries Consistent with predictions from economic theory that
price sensitivity is greater among those on lower incomes
23 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Price and Tobacco Use: Low-/Middle-Income Countries
Growing evidence from low- and middle-income countries suggests that the impact of tax and price increases is up to twice as large as in high-income countries A few estimates
Southeast Asia: 10% price increase reduced overall consumption by 6–9%
China: 10% price increase reduces consumption by6.5–13%
South Africa: 10% price increase reduces consumption by 6–7%
Morocco: 10% price increase reduces consumption by5–15%
24 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Cigarette Prices* and Consumption: South Africa
Source: adapted by CTLT from Van Walbeek. (2003).
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Cigarette Prices* and Consumption: Morocco
Source: adapted by CTLT from Aloui. (2003).
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Price, Smoking Prevalence, and Cessation
Estimates suggest that about half of the impact of price on overall tobacco use result from changes in prevalence Implies that a 10% price increase reduces prevalence
by: 1–2.5% in high-income countries 2.5–5% in low- middle-income countries
Changes in prevalence in response to price increase largely result from cessation among current users
U.S. estimates suggest 10% price increase increases number of smokers trying to quit by more than 10%, with about 2% successful in long-term
27 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Cigarette Prices and Adult Smoking Prevalence: U.S.
Source: adapted by CTLT from Tax Burden on Tobacco. (2007); U.S. National Health Interview, various years; author’s calculations.
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Cigarette Prices and Quitting Smoking: U.S.
Sources: adapted by CTLT from Tax Burden on Tobacco. (2006); U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. (2005); author’s calculations.
29 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Price Sensitivity and Age
Growing evidence that tobacco use among younger persons is two to three times more responsive to price than tobacco use among older persons Largely based on studies from the United States, but
there is growing evidence from other countries Consistent with economic theory, given:
Lower incomes of youth Greater importance of peer influences on youth Influence of addiction Greater preference for the present among youth
30 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Price Sensitivity and Age
Growing evidence that tobacco use among younger persons is two to three times more responsive to price than tobacco use among older persons Changes in youth prevalence largely result from
reductions in initiation of tobacco use Evidence suggests that higher taxes and prices are
most effective in preventing youth from moving beyond experimentation and into regular tobacco use and addiction
31 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Youth Smoking Prevalence and Cigarette Price: U.S.
Source: adapted by CTLT from Tax Burden on Tobacco. (2006); U.S. Monitoring the Future Surveys; author’s calculations.
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Price Sensitivity and Income/Education
A growing number of studies find that tobacco use among less-educated and/or lower-income persons is more responsive to price Economic theory implies that lower-income persons are
generally more responsive to changes in prices for goods or services they consume than are higher-income persons
U.K.: lowest socioeconomic group is very responsive to price, while highest socioeconomic group virtually unresponsive to price*
* Source: Townsend, J. (1994).
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Price Sensitivity and Income/Education
A growing number of studies find that tobacco use among less-educated and/or lower-income persons is more responsive to price U.S.: smoking in households below median income level
are about four times more sensitive to price than smoking in households above median*
Similar evidence emerging from low- and middle-income countries
* Source: Farrelly, M. (2001).
34 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Dedicated Tobacco Taxes
A growing number of governments are using dedicated tobacco taxes (also called hypothecated or earmarked tobacco taxes) to support tobacco control activities Include “health promotion foundations” and
“comprehensive tobacco control programs”
Research evidence, largely from high-income countries, shows that funding for tobacco control programs: Reduces overall tobacco consumption Increases adult cessation and prevents youth initiation Reduces tobacco use in other high-risk populations
35 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Tobacco Taxes and Deaths Caused by Tobacco
Given the evidence on the impact of tobacco taxes and prices on tobacco use, large increases in taxes globally would significantly reduce premature deaths caused by tobacco use Short-run reductions in deaths result from increased
cessation Significant health benefits of cessation
Long-run reductions result from preventing initiation
36 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Source: adapted by CTLT from Jha, et al. (2006).
Tobacco Deaths and Tobacco Control
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Tobacco Taxes and Revenues
Increases in tobacco taxes lead to increases in tobacco tax revenues, despite reductions in tobacco use Low share of tax in price in most countries
Implies large tax increase will raise price by smaller percentage
Less than proportionate fall in consumption in response to given percentage price increase in most countries
Revenues rise even in presence of tax avoidance and smuggling
38 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Federal Cigarette Tax and Tax Revenues, U.S.
Source: adapted by CTLT from Tax Burden on Tobacco. (2006); author’s calculations.
39 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Cigarette Taxes* and Tax Revenues*: South Africa
Source: adapted by CTLT from Van Walbeek. (2003).
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Cigarette Taxes* and Tax Revenues*: Indonesia
Source: adapted by CTLT from Djutaharta, et al. (2005).
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What Is the “Right” Level of Tobacco Taxes?
This is a complex question that depends on a variety of factors, including the following: Motives for tobacco taxation
Improving public health vs. generating revenue? (taxes can accomplish both)
Tax rates in neighboring countries Potential for tax avoidance and smuggling
World Bank suggests that a useful yardstick is two-thirds to four-fifths of the price accounted for by tax in countries that have taken a comprehensive approach to reducing tobacco use
42 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Summary
Higher tobacco taxes will lead to higher tobacco product prices
Increases in tobacco taxes and prices will reduce tobacco use and the disease and death it causes Increase cessation among current users Prevent relapse among former users Prevent initiation of regular tobacco use Reduce consumption among those who continue to use
Higher tobacco taxes raise revenues New revenues can be used to support comprehensive
tobacco-control efforts that would further reduce tobacco use
43 2007 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Additional Resources
International Tobacco Evidence Network www.tobaccoevidence.net
World Bank tobacco page www.worldbank.org/tobacco
World Health Organization’s Tobacco-Free Initiative www.who.int/tobacco/en/
Research for International Tobacco Control www.idrc.ca/en/ev-83280-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html
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Additional Resources
Jha, P., Chaloupka, F.J. (1999). Curbing the Epidemic: Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control. Washington D.C.: World Bank.
Jha, P., Chaloupka, F.J., eds. (2000). Tobacco Control in Developing Countries. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Chaloupka, F.J., Warner, K.E. (2000). “The Economics of Smoking.” In Handbook of Health Economics. New York: North Holland.
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Additional Resources
Ross, H., Chaloupka, F.J. (2006). Economic Policies for Tobacco Control in Developing Countries. Revista de Salud Pública de México, 48(S1):S113-120.
Jha, P., Chaloupka, F.J., et al. (2006). “Tobacco Addiction.” In Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries, 2nd Edition. Washington D.C.: Oxford University Press and the World Bank.