Business Model Innovation. technology isn't Enough - Professor Henry Chesbrough
© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 1 Open Innovation: The Next Frontier in R&D Presentation to ALA 2008 Henry...
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Transcript of © 2007 Henry Chesbrough 1 Open Innovation: The Next Frontier in R&D Presentation to ALA 2008 Henry...
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 1
Open Innovation: The Next Frontier in R&D
Presentation to ALA 2008
Henry ChesbroughExecutive Director, Center for Open Innovation
Haas School of BusinessUC Berkeley
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 2
The Current Paradigm: A Closed Innovation System
ResearchResearchInvestigationsInvestigations
DevelopmentDevelopment New ProductsNew Products & Services& Services
TheMarket
Science&
TechnologyBase
R D&E
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 3
Great Successes from the Closed Innovation Model
• The Chemicals Industry – Germany and later US• Edison, GE, and the rise of electrification• Rockefeller and Standard Oil• World War II scientific achievements• Chandler: Internal R&D key to the rise of the
modern US corporation in 20th century
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 4
Rising Costs of R&D
Then (25 years ago)• <$ 30 million for a fab• <$ 50 million for a new
drug• < $ 10 million for a
new consumer product
Now• > $ 3 billion for a fab• > $ 800 million for a
new drug• > $50 million for a
new consumer product
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 5
Shorter Shipping Lives
• Disk drives
• Cell phones
• Generic drugs
• “80% of the senior executives we surveyed indicated that the productive lives of their strategies were getting shorter.”
» Chris Zook, HBR April 2007
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 6
Diminishing Economies of Scale:US Industrial R&D by Size of Enterprise
Company Size 1981 1989 1999 2003
< 1000 employees 4.4 % 9.2% 22.5% 22.5%1,000 – 4,999 6.1 % 7.6 % 13.6% 14.8%5,000 – 9,999 5.8 % 5.5% 9.0% 7.5%10,000 – 24,999 13.1% 10.0% 13.6% 13.4%25,000 + 70.7% 67.7% 41.3% 40.9%
Sources: National Science Foundation, Science Resource Studies, Survey of Industrial Research Development, 1991, 1999, 2001, 2003.
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 7
What changed? Five Erosion Factors
1. Increasingly mobile trained workers
2. More capable Universities
3. Diminished US hegemony
4. Erosion of oligopoly market positions
5. Enormous increase in Venture Capital
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 8
Hidden Assumptions in the Internally-Focused Innovation System
If I discover it, I will find a market for it.
If I discover it first, I will own it.
The important technologies I will need can be anticipated in advance.
“Misfits” are regrettable, but are a cost of doing business.
The best people in this field work for us.
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 9
Type I and Type II: Xerox and PARC
Designed to minimize “false positive” errorsIgnores risk of “false negative” errors
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 10
A Classic Example: the Xerox 914 copier• Chester Carlson develops electrostatic method to place
toner on paper, a “dry” process for copying documents
• In 1955, existing processes (wet or thermal) used to make 15-20 copies per day. Machines cost ~ $300.
• Joe Wilson estimates cost of building dry process copiers at ~$2000
• Wilson seeks manufacturing and distribution partners
– IBM, Kodak, GE
• IBM engages ADL to study: “Although it may be admirably suited for a few specialized copying applications, the Model 914 has no future in the office-copying-equipment market.”
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 11
Wilson’s Business Model• ADL’s study (and the other companies) viewed the dry
process technology through a traditional business model– charge for the equipment (dry technology very high cost)– charge for the supplies as needed (no savings vs. wet)
• Joe Wilson ignored these rejections, and took the technology to market through a new Business Model– $95/ month for first 2000 copies, 4 cents each for additional– Low barrier for customer trial, Haloid/Xerox bore the risk– Enormous usage: 2000 copies per day– Revenues grow 41% compounded for next 20 years
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 12
3Com
• Metcalfe left PARC in Jan. 1979
• Did consulting work until Feb. of 1981– DEC, GE, Exxon
• Brokered alliance between Xerox, DEC, and Intel for IEEE 802 (aka Ethernet)
• Initial plan: sell to Unix workstations, via direct sales force
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 13
Then….• As part of consulting, created directory of LAN
dealers and VARs across US– first of its kind– sold many hundreds of copies at $125 each– did this for 5 years
• IBM PC took the world by storm• 3Com formed, Krause joined from HP
– VCs financed:
• New plan: add-on boards for IBM PCs, sold through IBM retailers and VARs
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 14
Different Financial Processes
Chess: Type I errors• Plan several moves
ahead• No new information
needed• You know what
you’ve got, what opponent has
• NPV
Poker: Type II errors
• Pay to play
• Pay for new information
• You discover what you’ve got, what other players have
• Options
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 15
Xerox: Great at Chess, Lousy at Poker
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
4000019
78
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Year
US D
ollar
s (m
illions)
Xerox 3ComAdobe Doc SciDocumentum FileNetKomag ObjectshareSynOptics SDLIVLSI Sum (10)
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 16
CurrentMarket
InternalTechnology
Base
R D
The Open Innovation Paradigm
Technology Insourcing
New Market
Technology Spin-offs
ExternalTechnology
Base
Other Firm’s MarketLicensing
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17 C 2002 Henry Chesbrough EIRMA SIG III, 2005-10-20
Closed innovation
Our current market
Our new market
Other firm´s market
Open innovation
External technology insourcing
Internal technology base
External technology base
Stolen with pride from Prof Henry Chesbrough UC Berkeley, Open Innovation: Renewing Growth from Industrial R&D, 10th Annual Innovation Convergence, Minneapolis Sept 27, 2004
Internal/external venture handling
Licence, spin out, divest
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 18
The Division of Innovation Labor
• Open Innovation separates innovation into multiple stages– From a marathon to a relay race
• Lab and Test Equipment are Fundamental to this division of labor– Customer’s ability to verify that spec was met
– Supplier’s confidence that good product was delivered
– Enables the innovation baton to be passed efficiently and effectively
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 19
IBM: Its Closed Value ChainV
alue
-Add
ed A
ctiv
itie
s
Materials
Chips, devices
Computers
Operating Systems
Applications
Productivity SW
Atoms
Solutions
Value Chain
All IBM – pre 1993
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 20
IBM’s Open Business ModelV
alue
-Add
ed A
ctiv
itie
s
Materials
Chips, devices
Computers
Operating Systems
Applications
Productivity SW
IBM Chain OEM Market
Materials
Chips, devices
Computers
Operating Systems
Applications
Productivity SW
Integration
Atoms
Solutions Other Integrators
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 21
IBM’s Open Source Business Model
• Spends about $100M each year on Linux– 50% for general improvement– 50% for specific improvements for IBM gear
• Others spend another $800M a year • IBM creates value through Linux
– Also donates development tools, patents
• IBM captures value through value-added services and software “up the stack”
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 22
Procter & Gamble
• P&G used to be a VERY closed organization– “We invented Not Invented Here” – J. Weedman
• P&G financial crisis, in 2000– Missed a series of quarterly financial estimates– Stock market lost confidence in the company– Stock price fell by more than half in 4 months!– CEO (Jagr) was fired
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 23
P&G’s Stock Price: 8/1998-3/2000P&G Stock Price
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Pric
e pe
r sha
re
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 24
Searching for the Root Cause
• “We fundamentally had a growth problem. Our current brands were performing well. But we weren’t developing many new brands.” – C. Wynett
• To get new brands, P&G needed to open up.
• Connect and Develop– SpinBrush, Swiffer, Regenerist
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 25
The New P&G
• Many processes to enable open innovation– Technology scouts– Legal templates for IP, partnering– Investments in Innovation Intermediaries
• The Goal Now: Become the open innovation partner of choice
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 26
Balancing Internal and External R&D Funding: P&G
100
1000
0 % from internal
% fromExternal
Westinghouse
Raytheon
TI
Nokia
Hitachi
P&G 2002
Source: Gassmann, v. Zedtwicz (2002)
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 27
Balancing Internal and External R&D Funding: P&G
100
1000
0 % from internal
% fromExternal
Westinghouse
Raytheon
TI
Nokia
Hitachi
P&G
20022007
Source: Gassmann, v. Zedtwicz (2002)
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 28
Finding Partners: A Massive Filtering Problem
The Unwashed
The Suspects
The ProspectsThe
Finalists
The Partner(s)
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 29
IP Management Innovations
• Scouting technologies (utilizing public domain information)
• Two Innovative Intermediaries: Nine Sigma and Yet2.com– Outbound email “RFPs”/ Contacts and Competencies
– Requires (public) Problem Statement from Client
• A problem well-defined is half-solved
• Establishes context for potential solutions
• Must not “tip your hand” to competitors
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 30
How can one identify promising sources of innovation
(without contamination)?• Another innovative Intermediary: InnoCentive
– Start with public domain Problem Statement
– Solver Agreement (Solver owns solution being proposed)
– Private “rooms” on site for Solver to propose solution
– InnoCentive staff validates potential of idea prior to sharing idea with Client
– Client pays only for valid solution
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 31
Other Innovative IP Intermediaries
Inbound• Innovation Exchange• SSIPEX• YourEncore.com
Outbound• IpValue, ThinkFire (patents)• Utek, Flintbox (university technology)• New Venture Partners, LLC (spinoffs)
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 32
CurrentMarket
InternalTechnology
Base
R D
Intermediaries & Open Innovation
Technology Insourcing
New Market
NVPLLC: spinoffs
ExternalTechnology
Base
Other Firm’s Market
IP Value, Yet2 - licensing
InnoCentiveNineSigmaYet2.com
InvestmentBanks
Sequoia/Cisco
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 33
The Logic of “Open Innovation”• Good ideas are widely distributed today. No one has a
monopoly on useful knowledge anymore.
• Financial managers must play poker, as well as chess, to capture the value in false negatives.
• We must manage IP in order to manage research: – need to access external IP to fuel our business model
– need to profit from our own IP in others’ business model
• Not all of the smart people in the world work for us.
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© 2007 Henry Chesbrough 34
R.I.P
2007
R.I.P
Proudly FoundElsewhere!
A New Perspective Towards R&D
And verified by Lab and Test Equipment!
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