© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 A Sample Presentation of The State of the...

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use

1

A Sample Presentation of The

State of the Church in Missouri and

the Kansas City and St. Louis Metro

Areas

1990-2000

Dave Olsonwww.TheAmericanChurch.org


2

The first 20 slides are from the

“State of the Church in Missouri”

Powerpoint. The Complete Powerpoint is 43

slides in length, and is available at

http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMO20.ht

m

.

It includes maps of church attendance in every

county, as well as denominational charts, average

size charts, church planting charts, ethnicity charts

and population growth information.


3

In 1996,

polls taken immediately after the Presidential election revealed that 58% of people claimed they had voted, when in reality only 49% actually did. This is called the Halo Effect. People tend to over-inflate their participation in activities that create acceptability within their social group.

For many decades, pollsters such as Gallup and Barna have reported that around 45% of Americans attend church every Sunday. But there is a religious Halo Effect. Actual attendance counts have shown that the percentage of people attending church on any given weekend is much lower than was previously thought.


4

The Intent of this presentation is to answer and then expand

on two key questions:

“How Many People Really Attend Church in Missouri Every Week?”

“Is the Christian Church Going Forwards or Backwards in Influence in Missouri?”

As the data is analyzed county by county assessing a number of factors, a comprehensive picture of the State of the Church in Missouri will begin to take shape.


5

This study

uses weekend church attendance as a more reliable and more immediate snapshot of Christian influence than membership. The following map shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in all 50 states in 2000. Missouri has an average church attendance percentage (21.5%) higher than the national average (18.7%).


6

3.1%UT

9.7%NV

11.2%ME

11.4%ID

11.8%NH

13.2%VT

13.4%HI

14.0%WY

14.0%WA

14.3%AZ

14.4%MA

14.5%OR

14.8%CA

15.1%AK

15.1%FL

15.2%CO

15.5%NY

16.0%NJ

16.0%DE

17.4%WV

17.5%MT

17.7%MD

17.8%NM

18.0%VA

17.2%CT

19.1%TX

20.1%RI

20.3%IL

20.3%OH

20.5%PA

20.6%MI

21.5%MO

21.7%IN

22.0%OK

22.1%KY

22.7%KS

22.7%NC

23.2%MN

23.3%SC

23.3%GA

23.5%TN

23.8%NE

24.6%WI

24.7%IA

25.0%AR

26.7%MS

26.9%AL

28.0%SD

28.6%DC

29.4%ND

29.4%LA

0.0% to 14.4%14.4% to 17.5%17.5% to 20.6%20.6% to 23.5%23.5% to 29.4%

Percentage of Population Attending a ChristianChurch on any Given Weekend 2000


7

The Next Map

shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in Missouri.


8

10.8%

Ralls

12.1%

Douglas

12.5%

Shannon

12.7%

Callaway

12.8%

Andrew

12.9%

Carter

13.2%

McDonald

13.3%

Ozark

13.9%

Butler

14.0%

Crawford

14.1%

Wayne

14.1%

Jefferson

14.8%

Saint Clair

14.9%

Cass

14.9%

Clark

15.0%

Ripley

15.1%

Bollinger

15.2%

Lincoln

15.5%

Christian

15.6%

Howard

16.1%

Newton

16.2%

Stone

16.5%

Pulaski

16.6%

Washington

16.7%

Ray

16.8%

Sullivan

16.9%

Stoddard

16.9%

Clinton

16.9%

Daviess

16.9%

Warren

17.1%

Camden

17.2%

Boone

17.2%

Adair

17.6%

Vernon

17.7%

New Madrid

18.5%

Benton

18.8%

Pike

19.0%

Taney

19.1%

Saint Charles

19.1%

Dallas

19.2%

Dunklin

19.2%

Iron

19.4%

Hickory19.5%

Phelps

19.5%

Lewis

19.7%

Saint Francois

19.8%

Dekalb

19.9%

Johnson

20.2%

Caldwell

20.5%

Saline

20.7%

Mississippi

20.8%

Atchison

20.8%

Miller

20.8%

Carroll

20.9%

Putnam

20.9%

Pemiscot

21.0%

Maries

21.0%

Clay

21.1%

Lawrence

21.2%

Randolph

21.4%

Morgan

21.4%

Sainte Genevieve

21.5%

Pettis

21.6%

Platte

21.7%

Henry

21.8%

Howell

21.8%

Nodaway

22.3%

Saint Louis22.5%

Franklin

22.7%

Webster

22.7%

Lafayette

23.2%

Scott

23.3%

Cooper

23.4%

Laclede 23.4%

Dent

23.5%

Texas

23.6%

Mercer

23.7%

Polk

23.7%

Harrison

23.8%

Linn

23.9%

Monroe

24.3%

Audrain

24.9%

Schuyler

25.0%

Barry

25.0%

Jackson

25.1%

Chariton

25.5%

Grundy

25.5%

Livingston

25.7%

Greene

25.7%

Scotland

25.9%

Moniteau

26.0%

Gasconade

26.0%

Saint Louis City

26.7%

Macon

26.8%

Dade

26.8%

Bates

26.9%

Barton

26.9%

Cedar

26.9%

Marion27.2%

Buchanan

27.4%

Perry

27.5%

Reynolds

28.0%

Gentry 28.3%

Knox

28.9%

Montgomery

28.9%

Cape Girardeau

29.0%

Jasper

29.9%

Wright

30.3%

Madison

30.8%

Osage

32.2%

Oregon

34.8%

Cole

35.7%

Worth

35.9%

Holt

39.3%

Shelby

0.0% to 19.1%19.1% to 23.6%23.6% to 40.3%

Missouri Counties 2000 Percentage of Population at

Worship in Christian

Churches on a Given Weekend

Blue = Lowest Rose = Middle

Beige = Highest


9

The Next 2 Maps

show the population numbers for each county in Missouri. The first map shows the population of each county. The second map shows the growth or decline in population for each county from 1990 – 2000 and highlights the slow population growth in most of the state. Eighteen counties in Missouri have declined in population over the last decade.


10

2,382

Worth 3,757

Mercer

4,170

Schuyler

4,361

Knox

4,983

Scotland

5,223

Putnam

5,351

Holt

5,941

Carter

6,430

Atchison

6,689

Reynolds

6,799

Shelby

6,861

Gentry7,219

Sullivan

7,416

Clark

7,923

Dade

8,016

Daviess

8,324

Shannon

8,438

Chariton

8,850

Harrison

8,903

Marion

8,940

Hickory

8,969

Caldwell

9,311

Monroe

9,542

Ozark

9,626

Ralls

9,652

Saint Clair

10,212

Howard

10,285

Carroll

10,344

Oregon

10,432

Grundy10,494

Lewis

10,697

Iron

11,597

Dekalb

11,800

Maries

12,029

Bollinger

12,136

Montgomery

12,541

Barton

13,062

Osage

13,084

Douglas

13,259

Wayne

13,427

Mississippi

13,509

Ripley

13,733

Cedar

13,754

Linn14,558

Livingston

14,827

Moniteau

14,927

Dent

15,342

Gasconade

15,661

Dallas

15,762

Madison

16,492

Andrew

16,653

Bates

16,670

Cooper

17,180

Benton

17,842

Sainte Genevieve

17,955

Wright

18,132

Perry

18,351

Pike

18,979

Clinton

19,309

Morgan

19,760

New Madrid

20,047

Pemiscot

20,454

Vernon

21,681

Macon

21,912

Nodaway

21,997

Henry

22,804

Crawford

23,003

Texas

23,344

Washington

23,354

Ray

23,564

Miller

23,756

Saline

24,525

Warren

24,663

Randolph

24,977

Adair

25,853

Audrain

26,992

Polk

28,289

McDonald

28,658

Stone

29,705

Stoddard

31,045

Webster

32,513

Laclede

32,960

Lafayette

33,155

Dunklin

34,010

Barry

35,204

Lawrence

37,051

Camden

37,238

Howell

38,944

Lincoln

39,403

Pettis

39,703

Taney

39,825

Phelps

40,422

Scott

40,766

Callaway

40,867

Butler

41,165

Pulaski

48,258

Johnson

52,636

Newton

54,285

Christian

55,641

Saint Francois

68,693

Cape Girardeau

71,397

Cole

73,781

Platte

82,092

Cass

85,998

Buchanan

93,807

Franklin

104,686

Jasper

135,454

Boone

184,006

Clay

198,099

Jefferson

240,391

Greene

283,883

Saint Charles348,189

Saint Louis City

654,880

Jackson

1,016,315

Saint Louis

0 to 20,00020,000 to 100,000100,000 to 1,016,316

Missouri Counties2000 Population


11

-48,496

Saint Louis City

-1,874

Pemiscot

-1,168

New Madrid

-1,027

Atchison

-1,015

Mississippi

-764

Chariton

-683

Holt

-463

Carroll

-143

Shelby

-142

Pulaski

-131

Clark

-131

Linn

-121

Knox-104

Grundy

-66

Schuyler

-58

Worth

-34

Livingston

-29

Iron

13

Gentry

28

Reynolds

34

Mercer

43

Dunklin

144

Putnam

151

Daviess

161

Scotland203

Nodaway

207

Monroe

233

Saline

261

Lewis

293

Randolph

381

Harrison

400

Adair

417

Madison

426

Carter

474

Dade

581

Howard

589

Caldwell

607

McDonald

673

Maries

711

Shannon

781

Montgomery

810

Stoddard

874

Oregon

893

Sullivan

927

Marion

944

Ozark

1,044

Osage

1,046

Scott

1,150

Ralls

1,195

Saint Clair

1,197

Wright

1,206

Ripley

1,208

Douglas

1,225

Dent1,229

Barton

1,336

Gasconade

1,383

Ray

1,410

Bollinger

1,413

Vernon1,484

Perry

1,527

Texas

1,605

Hickory

1,628

Bates

1,630

Dekalb

1,640

Cedar

1,716

Wayne

1,805

Sainte Genevieve

1,835

Cooper

1,853

Lafayette

1,860

Andrew

1,953

Henry

2,102

Butler

2,254

Audrain

2,382

Pike

2,384

Clinton

2,529

Moniteau

2,864

Miller

2,915

Buchanan

2,964

Washington

3,015

Dallas

3,321

Benton

3,631

Crawford

3,735

Morgan

3,966

Pettis

4,577

Phelps

4,743

Macon

4,968

Lawrence

4,991

Warren

5,166

Polk

5,355

Laclede

5,744

Johnson

5,791

Howell6,463

Barry

6,737

Saint Francois

7,060

Cape Girardeau7,292

Webster

7,818

Cole

7,957

Callaway

8,191

Newton

9,556

Camden

9,580

Stone

10,052

Lincoln

13,204

Franklin

14,142

Taney

14,221

Jasper

15,914

Platte

18,284

Cass

21,641

Christian

21,648

Jackson

22,786

Saint Louis

23,075

Boone

26,719

Jefferson

30,595

Clay

32,442

Greene

70,976

Saint Charles

-48,500 to 00 to 10,00010,000 to 70,977

Missouri Counties1990 - 2000 Population

Growth or Decline


12

The Next 2 Slides

show the ethnicity of Missouri in 1990 and 2000. The third slide shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population for each ethnic group.


13

1990 Ethnicity of Missouri

Non-Hispanic White87%

Non-Hispanic Black11%

Hispanic1%

Asian1%

Non-Hispanic White

Non-Hispanic Black

Hispanic

Asian


14

2000 Ethnicity of Missouri

Non-Hispanic White85%

Non-Hispanic Black12%

Hispanic2%

Asian1%

Non-Hispanic White

Non-Hispanic Black

Hispanic

Asian


15

-3.7%

8.9%

79.5% 78.6%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

Non-Hispanic White Non-Hispanic Black Hispanic Asian

Missouri 1990 - 2000 Growth or Decline in an Ethnic Group's Percentage of the Population


16

The Next Graph

shows the attendance numbers for the churches in Missouri in 1990 and 2000. Evangelical and total attendance have grown slightly, while Mainline and Catholic have declined. As overall worship attendance has declined, the population has changed. A more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph. This graph reflects a decrease in the percentage of the population attending church for all groups.


17

649,123 690,980

195,224 189,918

336,439 319,130

1,182,468 1,201,834

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1990

Eva

ng

elic

al

2000

Eva

ng

elic

al

1990

Mai

nlin

e

2000

Mai

nlin

e

1990

Cat

ho

lic

2000

Cat

ho

lic

1990

To

tal

2000

To

tal

Missouri Worship Attendance - 1990 & 2000


18

12.7% 12.3%

3.8% 3.4%

6.6%5.7%

23.1%

21.5%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total

Missouri Worship Attendance in 1990 & 2000 by Percentage of Population

1990

2000


19

The 3 Next Charts

show the relative strength of the 8 major denominational groups in Missouri. The first chart illustrates the dominance of the Catholic and Baptist churches. The second and third charts show the significant decline of all denominations in Missouri.


20

Missouri 2000 Church Attendance by "Denominational Family"

Baptist24%

Methodist8%

Lutheran6%

Reformed3%

Pentecostal7%Christian

10%

Catholic26%

Other16%

Baptist

Methodist

Lutheran

Reformed

Pentecostal

Christian

Catholic

Other


21

5.2% 5.1%

1.9%1.7%

1.3% 1.2%

0.7% 0.6%

1.7% 1.6%

2.2% 2.1%

6.6%

5.7%

3.6%3.4%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Baptist Methodist Lutheran Reformed Pentecostal Christian Catholic Other

Missouri 1990-2000 Percentage of the Population Attending Churches by "Denominational Family"

1990

2000


22

-1.8%

-6.4% -6.4%

-8.7%

-4.3%

-2.4%

-13.3%

-7.6%

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Baptist Methodist Lutheran Reformed Pentecostal Christian Catholic Other

Missouri 1990-2000 Increase or Decline in Percentage of the Population Attending Christian Churches by "Denominational Family"

Baptist

Methodist

Lutheran

Reformed

Pentecostal

Christian

Catholic

Other


23

The Complete Missouri Powerpoint is 43

slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/MO20.htm.


county in the metro area, as well as denominational

charts, average size charts, church planting charts,

ethnicity charts and population growth information.


24

The next 11 slides are from the

“State of the Church in Kansas City”



http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/KansasCity.htm.






25

The Next Map

shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the Kansas City Metro in 1990 and 2000. Most noteworthy is that Evangelical, Mainline and Catholic churches grew numerically. However, as population has grown, the percentage of the population attending Mainline and Catholic churches has declined. This is a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence. The percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend is shown in the second graph.


26

178,444

201,974

71,451 76,213

102,919 107,883

356,265

390,176

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1990Evangelical

2000Evangelical

1990 Mainline 2000 Mainline 1990 Catholic 2000 Catholic 1990 Total 2000 Total

Kansas City MSA Worship Attendance 1990 & 2000


27

11.3% 11.4%

4.5% 4.3%

6.5%6.1%

22.5%22.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%


Kansas City MSA 1990 & 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship

1990

2000

© 2004 by David T. Olson

0.9%

-4.9%

-6.6%

-2.4%

-7.0%

-6.0%

-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%


Kansas City MSA Growth or Decline in Worship Percentage 1990 - 2000


29

The Next Chart

shows the 1990 & 2000 average church attendance by group for both this metro area and the nation. The second chart shows the 1990 & 2000 population per church for this state and the nation.

In 2000, Arkansas had the lowest population per church ratio with 411 people per church. Utah had the highest ratio with 4,586 people per church.


30

158 172

124 131 136153

112 115

872

981

794 794

201218

172 175

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000


1990 & 2000 Kansas City MSA Average Church Attendance

1990 Kansas City MSA

2000 Kansas City MSA

1990 US Average

2000 US Average


31

891

843

993

939

750

800

850

900

950

1,000

1990 2000

1990 & 2000 Kansas City MSA Population per Church

State

National


32

The First Factor

to evaluate is the Percentage of the Population that attends a worship service on any given weekend. The first map shows the 2000 percentage for all orthodox Christian churches.


33

Kansas City Metro - Percentage of Population Attending a ChristianChurch on any Given Weekend

by County in 2000

14.1%

Leavenworth

19.8%

Wyandotte

21.8%

Johnson

21.4% - 25.0%

21.0%

Clay

16.7%

Ray

16.7%

Clinton

25.0%

Jackson

21.6%Platte

14.9%

Cass

22.7%

Lafayette

19.1%

Miami

17.0% - 21.4%

14.0% - 17.0%


34

The Next Map

shows the 2000 growth or decline in the percentage of the population that attends a worship service on any given weekend for all Mainline churches.


35

Kansas City Metro - Growth or Decline in Percentage of Population Attending a Mainline Church

on any Given Weekend by County - 1990-2000

- 23 %

Leavenworth

- 19 %

Wyandotte

4 %

Johnson

Decline

Growth

- 7 %

Clay

- 26 %

Ray

- 4 %

Clinton

- 2 %

Jackson

- 12 %

Platte

- 28 %

Cass

- 20 %

Lafayette

- 10 %

Miami


36

The Complete Kansas City Powerpoint is 49

slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/KansasCity.htm.






37

The next 9 slides are from the

“State of the Church in St. Louis ”



http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/StLouis.htm.






38

The Next Map

shows the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend in 2000 for each county in the St. Louis area.

The St. Louis MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) consists of Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, Saint Charles, Saint Louis, Saint Louis City, and Warren (MO), Clinton, Jersey, Madison, Monroe, and Saint Clair counties (IL).


39

St. Louis Metro Area 2000 Percentage of the Population Attending a Christian Church on Any

Given Weekend26.0%

Saint Louis City

16.9%

Warren

15.2%

Lincoln

22.5%

Franklin

22.3%

Saint Louis

14.1%

Jefferson

19.1%

Saint Charles

22.4%

Saint Clair

23.2%

Jersey

26.9%

Clinton

26.6%

Monroe

21.4%

Madison


40

The Next Graph

shows the attendance numbers for the churches in the St. Louis area in 1990 and 2000. Evangelical churches have grown, while Mainline and Catholic churches have declined in attendance numbers. As population has grown however, a more reliable standard for evaluating increasing or declining influence is the percentage of the population attending church on any given weekend, shown in the second graph.


251,530264,001

80,683 74,200

256,435

224,909

590,555

564,964

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1990Evangelical

2000Evangelical

1990 Mainline 2000 Mainline 1990 Catholic 2000 Catholic 1990 Total 2000 Total

St. Louis MSA Worship Attendance 1990 & 2000


10.1% 10.1%

3.2% 2.8%

10.3%

8.6%

23.7%

21.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%


St. Louis MSA 1990 & 2000 Percentage of Population at Worship

1990

2000


43

The Next Map

shows the growth or decline in the percentage of the population attending a Christian church on any given weekend from 1990 to 2000 for each county. No counties in the St. Louis area grew in attendance percentage and twelve declined.


44

St. Louis Metro Area 1990 – 2000 Growth or Decline in Christian Church Attendance

-9.5%

Saint Louis City

-9.4%

Warren

-27.5%

Lincoln

-4.2%

Franklin

-3.6%

Saint Louis

-7.5%

Jefferson

-6.6%

Saint Charles

-3.5%

Saint Clair

-24.0%

Jersey

-13.1%

Clinton

-33.2%

Monroe

-13.7%

Madison


45

The Next Chart

shows the net increase in the number of churches in the St. Louis metro area from 1990 - 2000. The net increase equals the number of new churches started minus the number of closed churches. There was a net gain of 38 churches. However, to keep up with the population growth in the St. Louis area, there would have needed to have been a net gain of 79 churches from 1990 - 2000. This chart reveals a net gain smaller than needed to keep with population growth. Since closure rates of churches tend to remain constant, the low numbers reflect a smaller than normal number of new churches started.


82

-19-22

38

79

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Evangelical Mainline Catholic Total Gain Increase Needed toMaintain 1990 Ratio of

Churches toPopulation

St. Louis MSA Net Growth in Number of Churches 1990 - 2000


47

The Complete St. Louis Powerpoint is 46

slides in length, and is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/StLouis.htm.






48

This Presentation

is based on a nationwide study of American church attendance, as reported by churches and denominations. The database currently has average worship attendances for each of the last 10 years for over 200,000 individual churches.

It also uses supplementary information (actual membership numbers correlated with accurate membership to attendance ratios) to project the attendances of all other denominational and independent churches. All told, accurate information is provided for over 300,000 orthodox Christian churches.1

1 This presentation looks only at people attending orthodox Christian churches. Approximately 3 million people attend non-orthodox Christian churches, and perhaps 3 million attend a religious service of another religion. Those ‘houses of worship’ would add another 35,000 churches in the United States and increase the 2000 percentage to 20.5%.


49

For More Information . . . Please go to www.theamericanchurch.org for additional

information on the American Church. 12 Surprising Facts about the American Church is available at

http://www.theamericanchurch.org/12supm.htm

The complete Missouri Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/state/UMO20.htm

The Complete Kansas City Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/KansasCity.htm

The Complete St. Louis Powerpoint presentation is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/metro/StLouis.htm

A Combo Pack (12 Surprising Facts, Missouri, Kansas City & St. Louis Powerpoints) is available at http://www.theamericanchurch.org/combo/MO0.htm

© 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 A Sample Presentation of The State of the...

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Transcript of © 2004 by David T. Olson Sample - Not for Public Use1 A Sample Presentation of The State of the...