Zen & the Art of Economic$Economic Analysis & Systems Analysis

The University of CaliforniaBerkeley Extension

pmcdermott@msn.com

Copyright © 2007 Patrick McDermott

McDermott, Patrick,Zen and the Art of Systems Analysis:Meditations on Computer Systems Development,New York: iUniverse (0-595-25679-1), 2003 (2002).

What’s I.S. Goal? Efficiency

– Faster, Cheaper– Save Time– Doing things Right

Effectiveness– Better, Smarter– Information as an Asset– Doing the Right Thing– “It’s no use running faster if you’re on the wrong track.”

Innovation– New Area– Something You Didn’t do Before– Doing New Things

Optimist: The Glass is half FullPessimist: The Glass is half EmptyEconomist: The glass is 50% efficient

Internet Categories Content

– Entertain or Inform: Eyeballs Community

– Social• YouTube, Amazon reviews

Commerce– Sell, Sell, Sell

• Meta Categories– ISPs– Portals– Web Services

“Both Magritte and Escher use realism in exploring the worlds of paradox and illusion; both have a sure sense for the evocative power of certain visual symbols, and—something which even their admirers often fail to point out—both of them have a sure sense of the graceful line.”—Crab (Douglas Hofstadter, GEB)

Planning Paradox Companies that plan are more successful than

those that don’t. But companies that actually follow their plans are less successful than those that do not follow their plan.

Target Seeking Arrows The Most Common Plan:

A Budget

Target with Four FacesJasper Johns, c. 1955

Quality Control

The original meaning of QC:

“As good as it needs to be, and NO BETTER.”

• What’s a few Bugs between friends?• Steve Ballmer’s $2 million bug cleanup• Yourdon’s “Good Enough” Software

– Zero Defects, 6 s

Yourdon, Edward, Rise & Resurrection of the American Programmer, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Yourdon Press (0-13-121831-X), 1996.

The Terrible TwinsAnalysis Paralysis

– The Winchester Mystery Model– Its own (first class) airplane seat

Scope Creep– “The main thing is to keep the main thing the main

thing.”—James Thurber– Just say “No”– Allow 10%– Re-negotiate

Self-Fulfilling Prophecies

When people believe something is going to happen, because of their belief, they can unintentionally cause the event to actually happen

Run on a BankStock Market goes Up or DownProject Succeeds or Fails

Measuring Distorts

Never use an Indicator as an Evaluator– Army Spit Shine– Phone Calls (Mis-)Handled– Lines of Code– More Time Testing– Teach to the Test– Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle

• “Observing changes the Observed”

“Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted.”—Albert Einstein

Mallory vs. Hillary• Who was first to climb Mount Everest?• George Mallory (1886-June 8,1924)

– “Because it is There!”– And he’s still There

• Edmund Hillary & Sherpa Tenzing Norgay– May 29, 1953– No doubt: The 1st Successful Climb

• Always consider the Costs

Economic Costs Fixed Cost versus Variable Cost

– Periodic vs. Per Unit– Systems are usually fixed cost

• Even if broken!

Sunk Costs are Junk Costs– Don’t Throw Good Money after Bad

Opportunity Cost– What Might Have Been

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Learning Curve Like The Ugly American, who was not

Ugly inside “Steep learning curve” means it’s easy to

learn

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

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A "Learning Curve"

Total Production (millions of units)

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Mix Apples & OrangesApples and Oranges are Comparable

– A Small, inexpensive fruit– Good School Lunch Choice– Make Delicious Fruit Salad

Paul Cézanne (1839-1906)Apples & Oranges,1895

This is not a PC:

René Magritte (1898-1967)Ceci n'Est Pas une Pomme"This is not an Apple", 1964

René Magritte (1898-1967)La Chambre d'écoute”The Listening Room”, 1952