Post on 11-Feb-2016
description
Global and Regional Factors of Inter-Annual and Inter-Decadal
Variability of Hydro-meteorological conditions on the Black Sea
Ukrainian ShoresYuriy ILYIN
Marine Branch of Ukrainian Hydro-meteorological Institute (MB UHI)
Soviet street, 61, 99011, Sevastopol, Ukrainemb_uhmi@stel.sebastopol.u
Main issuesPart 1: Scales of variability: interannual, decadal and
climatic; AMO and NAO as indices of external climatic
influence on the Black Sea.Part 2: Latent (no measured directly) exogenic and
endogenic factors on inter-annual and decadal scales;
Is there direct correlation between AMO (or NAO) and complex regional hydrometeo indices of the Black Sea (Ukrainian shores)?
Introduction MB-UHI is dealing a long time with studies of
hydrometeorological conditions (regime) of the Azov and Black seas (last works are: Ilyin and Repetin, 2006; Ilyin, 2008-2010; Lipchenko et al., 2006; Ilyin et al., 2009, etc…). See also poster by Ilyin and Repetin
Long-term changes of marine meteorological and hydrological parameters (such as air and water temperatures, wind velocity, atmospheric precipitations, sea level, water salinity) can be described as the sum of linear trends and quasi-periodic (inter-decadal and inter-annual) fluctuations.
Time-series representation:''
30 300 )()()(
ttattT T
IC
Linear (secular)
trend
Climatic (inter-
decadal) variations
Inter-annual and
decadal fluctuation
s
Modern estimates of trends and climatic variability in time-series of main meteorological and hydrological parameters mean annual values were discussed in previous works (Ilyin, 2009-2011, Ilyin & Repetin, 2006, 2011).
They were obtained on the base of FSU and Ukrainian marine stations network observations which are performed since the end of 19th century till this time.
Some results are on poster by Ilyin and Repetin
How natural climatic periodicities are manifested in observational data? Secular linear trends in the first approximation can be considered as
evidence of unidirectional human impact on global and regional climate systems. However there are long-term fluctuations of climatic parameters with different periods on their background.
Unfortunately even long enough secular series of instrumental hydrometeorological observations on the Black Sea coast do not allow to obtain the statistically significant estimates of low-frequency periodicities using the standard methods of spectral analysis.
At the same time it is known that the regional climate in the Black Sea is under the influence of global processes that can be adequately described by the indices of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
Characteristics of the ocean influence and the values of these indices for regional climate studies are in the monograph (Polonsky, 2008).
Climate change indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) were subjected to spectral analysis in order to obtain their significant low-frequency spectral peaks of variability.
AMO index (1856-2008)
0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,08 0,09 0,1Frequency
10
20
30
40
50
60
Pow
er
Source: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Timeseries/AMO/ Series: Mean annual values, smoothed by 5-year moving averageSpectral analysis: Lomb periodogram (significant peak 66 years)
18601870188018901900 1910 1920193019401950196019701980199020002010Year
-0,4
-0,3
-0,2
-0,1
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
AM
O
NAO index (1824 – 2008)
0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,08 0,09 0,1Frequency
123456789
1011121314151617181920
Pow
er
Source: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/datapages/naoi.htm Series: winter (Dec-Mar), smoothed by 5-year average, detrendedSpectral analysis: Lomb periodogram (significant peaks on 76, 38, 22 yrs)
1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 19902000 2010Year
-1
0
1
2
NA
O w
in (
G-I
), 5
-yr
aver
aged
NAO index paleo-reconstruction (1500 – 2001)Series: winter (Dec-Feb), smoothed by 5-year average, detrendedSpectral analysis: Lomb periodogram (significant peaks on 173, 95, 67, 34, 22 yrs)
0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05 0,06 0,07 0,08 0,09 0,1Frequency
10
20
30
Pow
er
Reference:Luterbacher, J., Xoplaki, E., Dietrich, D., Jones, P.D., Davies, T.D., Portis, D., Gonzalez-Rouco, J.F., von Storch, H., Gyalistras, D., Casty, C., and Wanner, H., 2002. Extending North Atlantic Oscillation Reconstructions Back to 1500. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 2, 114-124.
ftp://ftp.cru.uea.ac.uk/data
Revealed periods of climatic variability obtained for the NAO series practically coincide with the low-frequency oscillations in solar activity (SA) described by the series of Wolf numbers (Herman and Goldberg, 1981; Landscheidt, 1998).
As is known, except of the most expressed 11-year Schwabe cycles, changes in the SA have 22-year Hale cycles and the secular Gleissberg cycles. Additionally there is a 180-year cycle explained by the period of the Sun rotation relative to the centre of the solar system mass and an associated 35-year cycle.
In a circle of geo- and astrophysics possible mechanisms for the external (space) influences on Earth's climate are discussed (Landscheidt, 1998), but the debate about the prevalence of natural climate variability over anthropogenic factors (greenhouse gases) is far from complete.
Evidently the 70-year cycle of AMO is not related to extraterrestrial factors while NAO reflects both own low-frequency vibrations of the “ocean-atmosphere” and the variation of external influences on global climate.
Given the fact that climatic changes are low-frequency oscillations with periods of no less than 30 years (Polonsky, 2008), it was attempted the Least Squares (LS) approximation of the hydrometeorological series by the superposition of harmonics with periods 95, 67 and 34 years.
Previously linear trends were removed from the original series
Long-period variations in the Black Sea:
189019001910 19201930 1940 195019601970 198019902000 2010Год
-1
0
1
2
Тем
пера
тура
, °C
Yalta
189019001910 19201930 1940 1950 1960 1970 198019902000 2010Год
-1
0
1
2
Тем
пера
тура
, °С
Odessa
Climatic changes of the mean annual air temperature in Yalta and Odessa approximated by the sum of harmonic functions with periods of 95, 67 and 34 years, revealed from spectrum of paleo-NAO
1900 1910 1920 19301940 1950 1960 1970 1980 19902000 2010
Год
-0,7-0,6-0,5-0,4-0,3-0,2-0,1
00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,9
Ско
рост
ь ве
тра,
м/с
Odessa
19001910 1920 1930 19401950 1960 197019801990 2000 2010Год
-0,9-0,8-0,7-0,6-0,5-0,4-0,3-0,2-0,1
00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,9
1
Ско
рост
ь ве
тра,
м/с
Sevastopol
Long-period variations in the Black Sea:
Climatic changes of the mean annual wind velocity in Sevastopol and Odessa approximated by the sum of harmonic functions with periods of 95, 67 and 34 years, revealed from spectrum of paleo-NAO
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Год
-100
0
100
200
Объ
ем, к
м3
Precip.
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Год
-100
0
100
200
Объ
ем, к
м3
River inf.
Long-period variations in the Black Sea:
Climatic changes of the mean annual river discharge and precipitations (km3) approximated by the sum of harmonic functions with periods of 95, 67 and 34 years, revealed from spectrum of paleo-NAO
Above approximations satisfactorily describe the long-period (decadal and secular) changes in observations series, which serve as proof of the natural global climatic oscillations impact on regional climate changes.
However, the nature of the original series and the low-frequency variations is unequal for different areas of the coast which reflect the impact of the various regional factors on local hydro-meteorological conditions.
Thus, climate changes reflect significant differences of physical-geographical conditions of the north-western Black Sea and the southern coast of the Crimea peninsula.
Main period of the last centuries inter-decadal variability is the period of about 70 years. Besides, significant spectral peaks were discovered in the NAO time-series on the scales of secular changes (95, 173 years) and more high-frequency inter-decadal oscillations (34, 22 years). Close periods exist also in the SA index time series (i.e. Wolf numbers).
Superposition of harmonic functions with periods 95, 67 and 34 years describes satisfactory the multi-annual fluctuations of the observed hydro-meteorological values for the Black Sea.
Regional differences of climatic variability are manifested for different regions of Ukrainian seashore
Conclusion (1) :
Factor analysis of data series
To study how related “global” and “regional” factors in time series of different parameters measured in different points of the shore, exploratory factor analysis was performed using the algorithm of principal components (PC) for correlation matrices;
Latent (not measured directly) factors: exogenic (“globality”) – unidirectional changes in all points of measurements and endogenic (“regionality”) – differently directed changes for different regions of the shore
Odessa
Sevastopol
YaltaCape Khersones
Feodosia
Khorly
Evpatoria
Primorskoye
Location of observation points used for the time series construction
2 kinds of time series were constructed for the each parameter:
1) Yearly mean values for 1945 – 2009 (1952 -2009 for S): inter-annual scale (2-year and more periods)
2) 5-year mean values for 1925-2009 (1950-2009 for S): decadal scale (10-year and more periods)
Hydrometeorological variables:
Wind velocity (W or WV)
Air temperature (TA)
Water temperature (TW)
Precipitations (P or Pr)
Sea level (SL)
Salinity (S)
Odessa
Sevastopol
YaltaCape Khersones
Feodosia
Evpatoria
Wind velocity: yearly mean values, 1945-2009
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 3.78253 64.4542 0.984687 16.7793 0.44019 7.50074 0.342968 5.84415 0.192841 3.2866 0.125398 2.1368Jolliffe cut-off 0.27047
PC-1
PC-2
2 3 4 5 6Component
1
2
3
4
Eig
enva
lue
0.42760.3303
0.44840.3347 0.399
0.4856
W_O
ds
W_E
vp
W_S
tp
W_K
hs
W_Y
lt
W_F
ds
-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.1
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
Load
ing
0.3157
-0.6244
0.1194
0.5643
-0.4217
-0.005996
W_O
ds
W_E
vp
W_S
tp
W_K
hs
W_Y
lt
W_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
1945
1946
19471948
19491950
1951
1952 1953
1954
19551956
1957
1958
19591960
1961
1962
19631964
19651966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
19731974
1975
1976
19771978
1979
19801981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
198819891990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
199819992000
2001
2002
20032004
20052006 200720082009
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4Component 1
-1
0
1
2
Com
pone
nt 2
10 20 30 40 50 60Year number (1945-2009)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
PC
sco
re
Odessa
Sevastopol
YaltaCape Khersones
Feodosia
Evpatoria
2 3 4 5 6Component
1
2
3
4
Eig
enva
lue
0,4411 0,35250,4449
0,3469 0,34220,4957
W_O
ds
W_E
vp
W_S
tp
W_K
hs
W_Y
lt
W_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
-0,3584
0,4422
0,01047
-0,5773
0,5853
-0,005026
W_O
ds
W_E
vp
W_S
tp
W_K
hs
W_Y
lt
W_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
1927
19321937
19421947
19521957
1962
1967
1972
197719821987
19921997
2002
2007
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3Component 1
-1
0
1
2
Com
pone
nt 2
Wind velocity: 5-year mean values, 1925-2009
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 3,76792 69,9162 0,898886 16,6793 0,302493 5,6134 0,265352 4,92385 0,116313 2,15836 0,0382312 0,7094Jolliffe cut-off 0.62874
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
PC
sco
re
PC-1
PC-2
Odessa
Sevastopol
Yalta
Feodosia
Evpatoria
Air temperature: yearly mean values, 1945-2009
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 4,54574 92,4042 0,210356 4,2763 0,091396 1,85794 0,0402877 0,818965 0,0316175 0,64271Jolliffe cut-off 0.68872
2 3 4 5Component
1
2
3
4
5
Eig
enva
lue
0,4315 0,452 0,4494 0,4487 0,4542
TA
_Ods
TA
_Evp
TA
_Stp
TA
_Ylt
TA
_Fds
-0,9-0,8-0,7-0,6-0,5-0,4-0,3-0,2-0,1
00,10,20,30,40,50,60,70,80,9
1
Load
ing
10 20 30 40 50 60Year number (1945-2009)
-4-3-2-1012345
PC
sco
re
Odessa
Sevastopol
Yalta
Feodosia
Evpatoria
2 3 4 5Component
1
2
3
4
5
Eig
enva
lue
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 4,12873 91,8722 0,209957 4,6723 0,110598 2,4614 0,0300555 0,668795 0,0146398 0,32577 Jolliffe cut-off 0.62916
Air temperature: 5-year mean values, 1925-2009
0,451 0,4549 0,4361 0,4399 0,4539
TA
_Ods
TA
_Evp
TA
_Stp
TA
_Ylt
TA
_Fds
0
1
Load
ing
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
PC
sco
re
Odessa
Sevastopol
Yalta
Feodosia
Evpatoria
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 4,5332 92,2192 0,153216 3,11693 0,116208 2,3644 0,0709133 1,44265 0,0421697 0,85785Jolliffe cut-off 0.6882
Water temperature: yearly mean values, 1945-2009
2 3 4 5Component
1
2
3
4
5
Eig
enva
lue
0,4458 0,4516 0,4497 0,4434 0,4456
TW
_Ods
TW
_Evp
TW
_Stp
TW
_Ylt
TW
_Fds
0
1
Load
ing
10 20 30 40 50 60Year number (1945-2009)
-4-3-2-1012345
PC
sco
re
Odessa
Sevastopol
Yalta
Feodosia
Evpatoria
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 4,10097 90,9182 0,278897 6,18313 0,0726385 1,61044 0,0351542 0,779375 0,0229547 0,5089 Jolliffe cut-off 0.63149
Water temperature: 5-year mean values, 1925-2009
2 3 4 5Component
1
2
3
4
5
Eig
enva
lue
0,4447 0,4468 0,4483 0,4476 0,4487
TW
_Ods
TW
_Evp
TW
_Stp
TW
_Ylt
TW
_Fds
0
1
Load
ing
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
-3-2-101234
5
PC
sco
re
Odessa
Sevastopol
Yalta
Feodosia
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 3.21358 64.2792 0.7646 15.2943 0.465429 9.30974 0.333887 6.67855 0.221895 4.4384Jolliffe cut-off 0.6986
Precipitations: yearly mean values, 1945-2009
PC-1
PC-2
2 3 4 5Component
1
2
3
4
Eig
enva
lue
0.33840.4938 0.4702 0.4697 0.4473
P_O
ds
P_S
tp
P_K
hs
P_Y
lt
P_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
Cape Khersones
-0.8831
0.24840.3976
-0.008975-0.01452
P_O
ds
P_S
tp
P_K
hs
P_Y
lt
P_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
19451946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
19531954
19551956
1957
1958
19591960
19611962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967 1968
1969
19701971
19721973
19741975
197619771978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
19911992
1993
1994
19951996
19971998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
20062007
2008 2009
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6Component 1
-1
0
1
2
3
Com
pone
nt 2
10 20 30 40 50 60Year number (1945-2009)
-3-2-1012345
PC
sco
re
Odessa
Sevastopol
Yalta
Feodosia
Cape Khersones
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 3,35931 67,2392 0,682865 13,6683 0,456327 9,13374 0,322828 6,46165 0,174731 3,4974Jolliffe cut-off 0.69945
Precipitations: 5-year mean values, 1925-2009
2 3 4 5Component
1
2
3
4
Eig
enva
lue
0,37070,4883 0,4843 0,4272 0,4551
P_O
ds
P_S
tp
P_K
hs
P_Y
lt
P_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
0,8072
-0,153-0,3345
0,2601
-0,3815
P_O
ds
P_S
tp
P_K
hs
P_Y
lt
P_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
19271932
1937
1942
19471952
19571962
1967
19721977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4Component 1
-1
0
1
2
Com
pone
nt 2
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
PC
sco
re
PC-1
PC-2
Sevastopol
Yalta
Feodosia
Khorly
Evpatoria
Chernomorsk
Sea level: yearly mean values, 1945-2009
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 5.69787 95.1542 0.161114 2.69063 0.0533152 0.890364 0.043241 0.722125 0.0224371 0.37476 0.0100571 0.16795Jolliffe cut-off 0.69992 2 3 4 5 6
Component
1
2
3
4
5
6
Eig
enva
lue
0.4111 0.4102 0.411 0.4157 0.4099 0.391
SL_
Khl
SL_
Chm
SL_
Evp
SL_
Stp
SL_
Ylt
SL_
Fds
0
1
Load
ing
10 20 30 40 50 60Year number
-6-5-4-3-2-1012345
PC
sco
re
Sevastopol
Yalta
Feodosia
Khorly
Evpatoria
Chernomorsk
Sea level: 5-year mean values, 1925-2009
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 5,80404 97,652 0,0741789 1,2483 0,0307556 0,517454 0,0246876 0,415365 0,00772474 0,129966 0,00234684 0,039484Jolliffe cut-off 0.69344
2 3 4 5 6Component
1
2
3
4
5
6
Eig
enva
lue
0,4109 0,4081 0,4099 0,4114 0,4069 0,4021
SL_
Khl
SL_
Chm
SL_
Evp
SL_
Stp
SL_
Ylt
SL_
Fds
0
1
Load
ing
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
-4-3-2-101234
PC
sco
re
Odessa
Yalta
Cape Khersones Feodosia
Primorskoye
Salinity: yearly mean values, 1952-2009
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 2,09728 44,932 1,0009 21,4423 0,78665 16,8534 0,51704 11,0775 0,265998 5,6984Jolliffe cut-off 0.65351
PC-1
PC-2
2 3 4 5Component
1
2
3
Eig
enva
lue
0,3081 0,34980,5124 0,5596
0,455
S_P
rm
S_O
ds
S_K
hs
S_Y
lt
S_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
0,813
-0,4121
0,04358 0,09377
-0,3982
S_P
rm
S_O
ds
S_K
hs
S_Y
lt
S_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
194519461947194819491950
1951 19521953
1954
19551956
1957
1958195919601961 19621963
1964
1965
19661967
1968 1969
1970
1971
1972
197319741975
1976
1977
197819791980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
19861987
19881989
1990
19911992
1993
1994
19951996
1997
1998
199920002001
2002
20032004
20052006
20072008
2009
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4Component 1
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Com
pone
nt 2
10 20 30 40 50Year number (1952-2009)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
PC
sco
re
Odessa
Yalta
Cape Khersones Feodosia
Primorskoye
Salinity: 5-year mean values, 1950-2009
PC Eigenvalue % Variance 1 1,93269 55,82 1,14691 33,1133 0,264239 7,6294 0,089541 2,58525 0,0302281 0,8727 Jolliffe cut-off 0.48491
2 3 4 5Component
1
2
Eig
enva
lue
0,6078 0,583
0,2559 0,3092 0,3601
S_P
rm
S_O
ds
S_K
hs
S_Y
lt
S_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
0,4043 0,3551
-0,399 -0,4251-0,6087
S_P
rm
S_O
ds
S_K
hs
S_Y
lt
S_F
ds
0
1
Load
ing
1927193219371942
1947
19521957
1962
1967
19721977
1982
1987
19921997
20022007
-2 -1 0 1 2 3Component 1
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Com
pone
nt 2
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
-2
-1
0
1
2
PC
sco
re
PC-1
PC-2
Percentage of “globality” (PC-1) and “regionality” (PC-2)
Variable 1-year averaged 5-year averagedPC-1 PC-2 PC-1 PC-2
Wind veloc. 65 17 70 17
Air temperat. 92 92
Water temp. 92 91
Precipitations 64 15 67 14
Sea level 95 98
Salinity 45 21 56 33
Complex variables of the Ukrainian coast HM state: from 5 to 2 variables:
-0,4475
0,4191 0,4099 0,469 0,4858
W TA
TW P
r
SL
0
1
Load
ing
0,3389
0,5677 0,575
-0,3816 -0,2943
W TA
TW P
r
SL
0
1
Load
ing
PCA (correlation matrix) 5-year mean values: WV, TA, TW, Pr, SLPC Eigenvalue % Variance1 3,24748 69,5432 0,9457 20,2523 0,37465 8,0224 0,0854076 1,8295 0,0165286 0,353 Jolliffe cut-off 0.65377
PC-1: not windy, warm and watery
PC-2: windy, warm and dry
19271932
1937
19421947
1952
1957
1962
19671972
19771982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4Component 1
-2
-1
0
1
2C
ompo
nent
2
1927
1932
1937
1942
1947
1952
1957
1962
1967
1972
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
PC
sco
re1927
1932
1937
19421947
1952
1957
1962
19671972
19771982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
-0,2 -0,1 0 0,1 0,2 0,3AMO
-2
-1
0
1
2
PC
-2
r = 0.54 (p=0.03)
Significant (but not too close) correlation was obtained only between AMO and PC-2 on decadal scale
On inter-annual and decadal scales, variations of air and water temperatures as well as sea level are under global influence while changes of wind velocity, precipitations and salinity are subjected also by substantial regional impact (more or less evident result, except for water temperature)
To date, no practically significant linear correlations were obtained between global indices (AMO and NAO) and some measured or latent parameters used for the description of HM conditions within the Ukrainian Black Sea shore on inter-annual and decadal scale of variability.
Conclusion (2) :
Thanks for your attention!