Post on 30-Dec-2015
description
Surface parameters forecast in Vancouver and Whistler area
- Verification of MC2v498 parallel runs
Yan ShenUniversity of British Columbia
Outline
• Reviews of MC2v498 at our group• Verification of • Surface temperature forecast• in Vancouver and Whistler during
Feb 10 -17, 2005:• Verification of surface wind speed forecast
in Whistler area.• Conclusions
Reviews of MC2v498 at UBC
• Installed in May 2004• From June-October, tested on monster• Started in Nov 2004, running for MC2 sensitivity tests
(&CMC)• Started on Jan 1st 2005,running for Duke energy project.
• MC2 parallel runs performed from Jan 21 to Feb 28, 2005
• Started on March 3rd, running as our operational model
Parallel runs on 4 km grid resolution combining:
Cascade files from MC2v498 12 km grid runFCREST surface scheme
Kain-Fristch deep convective schemeKong-Yau microphysics scheme
(KFC&KY)Improved geophysicical file (from RPN)
NEW
UBC&CMC ; RWDI&CMCMC2 sensitivity tests (3rd test)
Preliminary results of parallel runs
• Compare MC2v498’s raw forecasts against MC2v491’s raw forecasts and observation (OBS) surface data(two EC stations) during Feb10-17, 2005.
VANCOUVER INT'L Latitude:49° 12'N
Longitude:123° 10' WElevation: 4.30m
WHISTLERLatitude:50°7'N
Longitude:122° 57' W Elevation:657.80m
Choose two locations : ( both are EC stations)
UBC 4 km domain
Complex Terrain inSouthern BC !
Verification of surface temperature forecast
• Use • surface temperature forecasts from
MC2 4 km operational and parallel runs
• Surface observation data: from EC web page
MC2V498 MC2V49110/02/2005
10/02/05
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PST (0700 - 1700)
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Whistler
10/02/05
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
PST (0100 - 2300 )
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Vancouver
Mc2v498 is close to OBS
MC2v498 MC2v49111/02/2005
Whistler
11/02/05
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
PST (0100 - 2300 )
temperature
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Vancouver
MC2v498 is close to OBS at day timeMC2V491 is close to OBS at night
11/02/05
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PST (0700-1700)
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
mc2v498 mc2v49112/02/2005
12/02/05
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PST (0700-1700)
temperature(c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Whistler
12/02/05
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
PST (0100 -2300)
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491Vancouver
MC2v498 is cold, butwarmer than MC2 v491
MC2v498 MC2v49113/02/2005
13/02/05
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PST (0700- 1700)
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Whistler
13/02/05
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
PST (0100- 2300)
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Vancouver
MC2 is cold
MC2v498 MC2v49114/02/2005
14/02/05
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PST (0700 - 1700)
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491Whistler
14/02/05
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
PST (0100- 2300)
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Vancouver
MC2 is cold !V498 is better at day time, v491 is better at night.
MC2v498 MC2v49115/02/2005
15/02/05
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PST (0700 - 1700 )
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Whistler
15/02/05
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
PST (0100- 2300)
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Vancouver
MC2v498 is close to OBS in Whistler
In Vancouver,MC2v498 is better at day time,MC2v491 is better at night
MC2v498 MC2v49116/02/2005
Whistler
16/02/05
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
PST (0100-2300)
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Vancouver
Perfect
MC2v498 is warmer at day time
16/02/05
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PST (0700-1700)
temperature (c)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
Results for verification of surface temperature forecast
• MC2v498 has a warm bias near water. But it has a good performance in predicting the surface temperature in mountainous area (need more verifications).
• How to use Kalmen filter for MC2 finer grid run’s results in the future?
• Does Kalmen filter know day-time forecast or night-time forecast?
Verification of Surface wind speed
forecast • Use the case of Feb 11, 2005. Both MC2 finished
4 km and 2 km grid runs on that day.• Compare surface wind speed forecasts with OBS
hourly data in Whistler
MC2V498 4 km MC2v491 4km
4PST
10PST
MC2v498 4km MC2v491 4km
16PST
22PST
Parallel runs on 2 km gridcombining:
• Cascade files from MC2v498 4 km grid runFCREST surface scheme
Kain-Fristch deep convective schemeKong-Yau microphysics scheme(KFC&KY) …
• Only completely finished with four days during this experiment of MC2 parallel runs
MC2v498 2 km MC2v491 2km
6PST
8PST
MC2v498 2km
12PST
MC2v491 2km
10PST
MC2v498 2km MC2v491 2km
14PST
16PST
Seems in this case :MC2v498 produces faster wind speed than
MC2v491in Mountainous area of BC
?
11/02/2005
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PST(0700-1700)
wind speed (km/hr)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
mc2v491.KF
From OBS Hourly data between PST 0700 and 1700, the wind speed in Whistler is always equal to zero.What’s wrong??? (even Kalmen Filter forecast) ------ Same location, same day….
Whistler
Our thought
• MC2 model always underestimate the wind speed.
• Really?• (This problem might only exist near
water or low flat surface).
12/02/2005
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
PST(0700-1700)
wind speed (km/hr)
obs
mc2v498
mc2v491
mc2v491.KF
Another Case 12/02/2005
Seems nothing is right if OBS data is right ?
Whistler
Results for verification of surface temperature forecast
• It’s very difficult to accurately forecast surface wind speed in mountainous area of BC ( at least in EC Whistler station)
• Sometimes, Kalmen filter makes surface wind speed forecast worse !?
Optimistic idea for surface wind forecast
• Obtain more OBS data from mountainous area of BC? Some new OBS stations will be build up in Whistler area before 2008 (2010 winter Olympics issue).
• Use more advanced MC2&RPN physics package.
• Use other model initial data than NAM forecasts,
• (GEM or GFS) ?
• Produce half hour forecasts. Need more computer power and …
• Use more advanced Kalmen filter ( mountainous type).
Pessimistic idea
• Forget about surface wind speed forecast
• Don’t waste time on it.
Few available OBS stations in BC mountainous areaPacific data void also affects the surface wind speed forecast in BC
END
• Thanks to Henryk and George for making weather maps and meteograms from MC2 parallel runs