Post on 26-Dec-2015
www.vsnlinternational.com
A new Telecom World unfolding - The IPv6 factor
Yves PoppeDirector – IP Strategy
First Thailand IPv6 SummitMay 2-4, 2006 - Bangkok
www.vsnlinternational.com
Agenda
Why the acceleration?
Some perceived drivers
VSNL - Teleglobe and IPv6
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
A View from the Top
“ With the internet and the proliferation of semiconductors, you’ll end up with trillions of things connected – not just individuals but cars, roads, homes, appliances, health-care data, and pacemakers. All of these things are available today that weren’t available in the past. In a way, everybody needs a challenge or the threat to get them going. The threat is that all these competitors are coming on-line that have global capabilities. They’re all enabled by these technologies… »
Samuel J. Palmisano, Chairman IBM, interviewed by Business Week - April 3th 2006 North-American issue, pp 52-53
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Why the Acceleration?
A telecom Industry desperate for stability and renewed revenue growth: Coming out of a major recession; relentless technological change; changing
regulatory environments; consolidation; globalization.
Consensus : the next multibillion revenue opportunities imply IP based network convergence, multi-functional end-devices, always on, always p2p reachable, mobile and endowed with end to end security.
Intense pressure on existing carrier business models with the advent of VoIP and new broadband wireless technologies
Visions of ubiquitous communications between billions of devices ranging from home networks to global sensor and RFID networks.
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Convergence and disintermediation
Multiplicity of convergences Network: IP convergence Access: Fixed and wireless convergence End device: multimedia convergence Service provision: convergence (triple, quad play)
Disintermediation Applications, from voice to MP3 download to home security to TV distribution,
independent of telecomm infrastructure provider Results in current debate on “network neutrality”
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Blurring distribution models
The old order: discrete and distinct Telecom: voice, fixed and mobile, data, internet Broadcasters : radio, TV Music industry Movie industry Print and publishing Advertising Gaming, gambling Home entertainment Production control, goods tracking Services: banking, travel, auctions, sales of goods
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Some pitfalls of IP convergence
The internet currently suffers from: Uneven distribution & looming shortage of IP addresses Inadequacy for mobile networking Unability for plug an play reconfiguration Elusive quality: QoS not on par with TDM & ATM Major network and user security issues:
Bad guy tricks: phishing, pharming, bots, typosquatting… Internet fraud complaints in the US: from 48,252 in 2002 to 207,449 in 2004(*) After Spam : Spim (Instant messaging Spam) and Spit (Internet Telephony spam)
(*): Internet Crime Complaint Center, as reported by BW May 30 2005 issue
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
IP convergence: the IPv6 factor
Solves address shortage Restores p2p Mobility
Better spectrum utilization Better battery life!
Security Ipsec mandatory
Multicast Better QoS (flow labels)
www.vsnlinternational.com
Neighbour discovery Ad-Hoc networking Home networks Plug and play Auto configuration
Permanent addresses Identity (CLID) Traceability (RFID) Sensors and monitoring
ADSL, cable, 3G, Wi-Fi, Wi-Max provide the always-on
www.vsnlinternational.com
IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence
To make a commercial reality of the IP convergence vision is impossible without moving to a new IP version The current one (IPv4) deployed on 01 /01/1983 is totally inadequate to meet
current network needs. IPv6 is the only way out of current IP address shortage for major developing
economies such as China and India. Essential for mobility, improved security and QoS Essential for plug and play home networking, mobile ad-hoc networks
(MANET’s) and networks in motion (NEMO’s) Critical component for session and event based billing in the 3G and B3G
(Beyond 3G) world based on IMS and SIP. One of the building stones toward ITU-T defined NGN
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Some New Telecom World drivers
Application domains: Mobile IP Voice, radio, TV over IP Grid Massive multiplayer games RFID, control and sensor networks Microsoft
Critical mass of: digital communicating end-user devices high speed always on access
National policies: Research and Education networks National Defense National/regional policies and economic weight
www.vsnlinternational.com
Disruptive on most existing carrier business models
www.vsnlinternational.com
17 billion Networkable Devices!
Sun Microsystems estimates that including sensor and RFID networks the world could have a trillion communicating devices in a decade!
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Mobile communications: What a market!
As reported by 3G Americas www.3gamericas.org 2 billion devices was reached sometime mid 2005!
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence
After the European bidding excesses and initial equipment delays 3G finally take off
Number of 3G/UMTS users reached 35 million by mid 2005; 50 million units were forecasted by end 2005 !
Saturation in mobile voice stimulates interest in « rich media » high speed applications, seamless wireless mobility, location based services information. The MNO dilemma is the risk of becoming a bit pipe implied by the move to data.
IMS (Internet Multimedia subsystem) is key to the billing of these new services services and IPv6 essential for a scaleable IMS approach.
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Mobile: Japan shows the way
Graph by CIAJ (Communication & Information Association of Japan)
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence Disruptive effect of the Skype phenomenon : 150 million downloads, 8
billion plus minutes, 1.5 million users on-line after two years. In North-America: 400+ providers Japan’s Yahoo BB is the biggest VoIP provider
Market will really explode with dual wi-fi/cellphone end-devices
What role for Google, Microsoft, E-Bay, Apple iPhone?
Enterprise VoIP: Q1 05 PBX shipments: 15% pure IP (rev. +36%) , 57% hybrid, 28% TDM ; 2008 forecast: 28% IP, 67%
hybrid, 8% TDM (Infonetics) IP centrex market starts to take off: perfect match for IPv6
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Digital radio, mobile TV and IPTV
Other neologisms : podcast(ing) and mobisodes. Radio delivered by web, satellite and cellphones. HD-Radio : CD quality sound; digital plus data
alongside existing AM or FM channels. Barriers to entry to a 21 billion $ industry (in the US) go down; XM,
Sirius, Yahoo, MSN new names in broadcasting. Mobile TV: Qualcomm MediaFlo vs. Modeo Consortium Mobile broadcast : Potentially 270 million subs worldwide by 2009 (Visiongain) Forecasts of 200 million digital TV’s worldwide by 2007 and 20 million IPTV
subscribers by 2008 (IPTV News)
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Grids
Going mainstream IBM : 11 datacenters around the world as computing grid Sun Microsystems; grid on demand service Globus Consortium with IBM, Sun, Intel etc promote de facto standard numerous trials in the R&E world
www.vsnlinternational.com
ESG
www.vsnlinternational.com
Multiplayer games
On-line gaming More than 5 million subscribers for most popular titles Average 20 hours/week on-line! Monthly fee 10 to 15US$ Sales of virtual goods reached US$200 million! Japan on-line gaming to reach 93.8 billion yen end 2005! Multiplayer cellphone gaming takes of exponentially
On-line gambling Virtual poker tables, tournaments etc. Partygaming IPO : US$ 9 billion valuation June 2005
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
RFID’s
January 2005: The bandwagon started rolling Wal-Mart Stores and DoD mandatory
RFID support programs started.
Generalized RFID implies terabytes of traffic daily. RFID for authentication and for traceability: drugs, passports, banknotes,
secure papers, concert entry ticket, casino chips, luggage tags …. 3.1 billion tags for pallets&cases in 2006; by 2008 a US$7.26B market
with 15.3 billion tags for pallets &cases and 6.8 for non retail item level (luggage etc) 48% Asia, 32 % North America by 2010 (source: IDTechEx analysis).
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Sensor networks Self organizing sensor networks
Darpa sensit, Smart Dust, motes and follow-up projects Pervasive computing, context-aware computing etc. Habitat, water&pollution levels, structural integrity, biomedical
Intel’s vision Intel Deep Networking projects: “Locally networking billions of embedded nodes, driving computing
deeper into the infrastructure that surrounds us.” Intel Mote: “Motes are tiny, self-contained, battery-powered computers with radio links, which enable
them to communicate and exchange data with one another, and to self-organize into ad hoc networks. Motes form the building blocks of wireless sensor networks”
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Microsoft Motivation: expand application domains and revenue sources
Multiplayer games (Xbox on-line) Peer 2 peer ( end of NAT issues) Mobility (session continuity , mobile VPN, VoIP) End to end security: temporary addresses and Ipsec Secure neighbor discovery Plug and play (instant network)
Microsoft and IPv6 support Windows XP SP1, PocketPC, CE.NET have an IPv6 stack Messenger, Windows Media Player, Direct Play, Threedegrees Windows Vista will have IPv6 as default protocol. Revised release date Q1 2007
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
The battle for the communicating living-room
Consumer Electronic Show Vegas January 2004 and January 2005 First serious salvos in a titanic battle between the computer industry (Intel, Microsoft) and the
electronics industry (Sony, Philips, Toshiba, Panasonic..) The essence of the battle is a kind of a home « mediacenter » with all devices connected in a plug and
play mode, preferably wireless.
Consumer Electronic Show january 2006 CEA press-release jan 8th: “Convergence was a big trend on the show floor in 2006 as traditional product categories merged
together to create unique, multi-functional digital devices.”
Huge stakes: $135 billion consumer electronics market in the US alone for 2006 (Consumer Electronics Association)
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Prevalence of fast digital access 150.6 million subscribers end 2004
up 26.5 million lines in 6 months (source: Point Topic) 200+ million were estimated end 2005 DSL dominates except in North America
Growth continues unabated: FT: end Q2 2005: 6.4’ subscribers +80% in 1 year Telefonica: end Q2 2005: 4’ subs +56% in 1 year UK: high speed internet connections overtake dial-up (June 05)
It took mobile phones 5.5 years to go from 10 to 100 million subscribers worldwide; Broadband achieved this in 3.5 years.
It took mobile 5.5 years to grow from 10 to 100m worldwide; Broadband achieved same growth in 3.5 years
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
BB: Again, Japan shows the way
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Powerline Communication
Utilities are showing a growing interest Associations in North-America, Europe and Asia Standardization process accelerates Products are coming on the market after
around 100 trials in 40 countries Opens the way to networking for the myriad
home appliances all the way to the individual lightbulbs
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Software Defined Radio
SDR promises seamless interoperability across virtually any wireless standard
Makes software control of operating frequencies and output power possible.. Allows for multimode, multiband, multifunctional devices to be adapted,
updated or enhanced by software Mandated by the US DoD under JTRS (Joint Tactical Radio System) program European Union formed a very active SDR group: E2R (End 2 End
Reconfigurability) Seen as essential for B3G (Beyond 3G) Standard disputes underway
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Wi-Fi, Wi-Max, ZigBee, Mobile-Fi, Ultrawideband….
Disruptive even if a fraction of these market projections are achieved
Constant re-evaluation of current business models both for access and service revenues is essential.
www.vsnlinternational.com
Business Week, April 26th 2004
www.vsnlinternational.com
Wi-Fi and Wi-Max Wi-FI
120 million Wi-Fi chipsets shipped in 2005 100,000 public hotspots reached, 37K in the USA (Jiwire study,
reported in Computerworld January 23, 2006)
Wi-Max Potentially disruptive; rival for fixed BB and 3G? Intel Wi-Max ready chipset started shipping
“We want to enable the next billion broadband users” (Ron Peck, Intel director marketing WiMax, quoted in C|net apr 18th)
$250+ per access down to $50 by 2008 – price level needed for generalized inclusion in laptops, cellphones etc.
Deployments announced and starting: Clearwire, Speakeasy, AT&T, Qwest, Korea’s Wibro Jan 2006: first WiMax Forum certified products
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
R&E networking
R&E networks broke the IPv6 chicken and egg dilemma All major R&E networks are dual stack
Next frontier: ultra high bandwidth communication with projects such as GLIF
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
National Defense
US DoD decision to mandate IPv6 support was major catalyst in the US Resulted in Moonv6 test network
Australian, Canadian, German,Japanese, UK and other defense ministries plan for IPv6
NATO Interoperable Networks for Secure Communication (INSC) project has IPv6 focus
Defense mobile networking needs: adhoc networks (MANET), networks in motion (NEMO) and end system mobility are just not achievable without IPv6
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
IPv6 deployment: The China factor With the support from the Chinese government, China’s five major Carriers started to build the
CNGI: China Next Generation Internet Objective stated in 2004: " It will become one of the largest IPv6 networks in the world by the year
of 2005, speeding up the IPv6 R&D in China and providing tremendous business opportunities for industry global wide. "
CERnet2, China’s new R&E network is IPv6 only and connect 20 cities at speeds of 2.5 and 10 gigabit per second. Became operational in Dec-04.
Chinese officials restated that they want the Chinese internet to be completely IPv6 in time for the 2008 Olympics
China 2005 IPv6 Summit Theme was: “IPv6 & CNGI---Innovation in Action, Connecting Everything”China 2006 IPv6 Summit Theme is: “IPv6: The New Internet-The Future is Here”
2008 will be showcase for the IP converged Olympics with full deployment completed in time for the Shanghai 2010 Worldfair
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
China’s Next Gen Internet
CNGI fund of 1.4 billion Yuan (US$169 million) provided by the NDRC (National Development Reform Commission) to support six next generation networks
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Korea’s u-IT839 U-IT839
Announced feb 8th 2006 Successor to IT839
Emphasis on ubiquity and on convergence: Mobile communications and telematics RFID and USN (ubiquitous sensor network) T-DMB(Digital Multimedia broadcasting) and DTV BCN (Broadband Converged Network) includes IPv6 Some of the 2006 objectives;
Commercialization of HSDPA and Wibro Nation wide DMB and DTV services BB internet and WLAN controlled household robot
Motivation: grow IT from 13.3% of GDP in 2006 to 21.8% in 2010
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Malaysia’s MyICMS 886 blueprint Launched December 19, 2005
8 Services Broadband, 3G, Mobile TV, digital multimedia broadcasting, digital
home, RFID, VoIP, universal service provisioning
8 Infrastructures Three hard: Multi service convergence network, 3G telegram network, satellite 5 soft: IPv6, Information and network security, PC and internet adoption, computer
development and product design and manufacturing
6 Growth areas Content development, ICT education, set talk boxes, digital radio receivers, VoIP phones and
overseas investment consultancy
Motivation: grow C&M from 9.7% of GDP
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
India’s 10 point agenda Declared by the Honourable Minister Maran
1. Convergence of technologies
2. E-Governance
3. Broadband connectivity
4. Next Mobile Wireless
5. National Internet exchange & Indian Domain Name
6. IPv6
7. Security & digital signature
8. Media Lab Asia: seamless communication to rural areas
9. Language computing: given India’s multilingual nature
10.Outsourcing skilled manpower and R&D thrust
Will help grow IT share from current 4.8% of GDP
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
A high stakes game : Internet Governance! The internet juggernaut of the last decade took governments, regulators and carriers by surprise The looming IP convergence and an era of ubiquitous communications raises growing concerns
about national interests, security, privacy and control IPv6 is a once in a generation opportunity to influence governance and control of
telecommunications For the first time since IPv4 was introduced in jan1983, the internet is moving to a new protocol version
and address scheme
At stake: a more regulated structured growth versus a liberal highly creative, competitive more chaotic growth.
July 14th 2005: impasse between the U.N. and the USA. The U.N. panel presents 4 options including status-quo.
November 2005 WSIS conference in Tunis: compromise reached
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
VSNL & IPv6
www.vsnlinternational.com
Home Carrieror ISP
Global Carrieror ISP
Foreign Carrieror ISP
IP Convergence requires seamless connectivity
www.vsnlinternational.com
Wholesale Data | Global Footprint
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Wholesale Data | IP Backbone
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Medak
Rajamundry
Samathanagar
Tirupathy
Vijaywadai
Vishakapatnam
Warangal
Sambhalpur
Tumkuri
Hasan
Nellore
Belgaum
Mangalore
Mandya
Mysore
Kolar
Kakinada
Cannonore
Ahmedabad
Pune
Noida
Delhi Kolkotta
Hyderabad
Bangalore
Chennai
Ernakulam
Bhopal
Surat
Coimbatorei
Lucknow
Gurgaon
Hubli
Trichy
Allepey
Calicut
Kollam
Palghat
Trivandraum
Thrissur
AdoniEluru
Ahmednagar
Aurangabad BaramatiJalgaon
KolhapurNagpurNasik
Pune shivaji
Sangli
Satara
Solapur ErodeHossur
Salem
Tirupur
Tuticorn
Pondicherry
Vellore
Madurai
Korba
Bhilai
Gwalior
Indore
Jabalpur
Raipur
Anand
Baroda
Bharuch
Gandhinagar
Himatnagar
Jamnagar
Mehsana
Rajkot
Silvassa
Valsad
AjmerAlwar
Bhilwara
Jodhpur
Kota
KarnalRohtak
Agra
Amritsar
Ludhiana
PatialaSonepat
Allahabad
Gorakhpur
Meerut
Guwahati
Shillong
Bhubaneshwar
Cuttack
Agartala
Asansol
Durgapur
Jamshedhpur
Ranchi
Vashi
Verna
Panjim
Faridabad
Ghaziabad
Chandigarh
KanpurBarielly
Mumbai
Jaipur
Jalandar
Hissar
Guntur
patna
Pallakad
Udaipur
Ambala
Dehradun
VSNL India:
114 POP’s IPv6 ready
www.vsnlinternational.com
Some concluding thoughts What will the new telecom world we are creating bring?
Homes on-line: triple or quad play; home gateways for work, entertainment, security and monitoring.
Goods on-line: tagging of practically everything Revenues on-line: whole industries attracted by the vortex Nations on-line: prerequisite to compete and generate wealth in a
increasingly global economy. Humans on-line: we will be networks in motion moving around carrying some terabytes
of information and communicating with the rest of the world at gigabit speeds Our brains on-line?
IPv6 will be a small but essential cog in this big wheel.
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Global Teams | Local Support
VSNL Singapore Pte Ltd. No. 5 Shenton WayUIC Building #22-07Singapore 068808+65 637 22 574+65 642 30 315 (Fax)
VSNL America, Inc.2100 Reston Parkway - Suite 320Reston, VA 20191USA+1 703 547 5900+1 703 547 6555 (Fax)
VSNL Telecommunications (US) Inc.90 Matawan RdSuite 101Matawan, NJ 07747+ 1 732 203 3000 + 1 732 203 3003 (Fax)
750 College Road EastPrinceton, NJ 08540+1 609 750 3333+1 609 419 1511 (Fax)
Teleglobe12010 Sunset Hills RoadReston, Virginia 20190+1 703 766 3100+1 703 766 3102 (Fax)
VSNL Telecommunications (UK), Ltd5th Floor, 30-34 Moorgate London, EC2R 6PJUnited Kingdom+44 20 7519 4610+44 20 7519 4609
Suite - 7th Floor2 Harbour Exchange SquareLondon, E14 9GE, England+44 207 519 4610+44 207 519 4609 (Fax)
VSNL Hong Kong Limited2402 Bank of America Tower12 Harcourt RoadCentralHong Kong+852 3693 8888+852 3690 2022 (Fax)
Asia-Pacific - Hong Kong2508 Two Pacific Place88 Queensway, Hong Kong+852 2530-8500 +852 2537 7417 (Fax)
Thailand Office36th Floor, CRC TowerAll Seasons Place, 87/2 Wireless Road+66 2625 3113 +66 2625 3003 (Fax)
Teleglobe1555 Rue Carrie-Derick Montreal (Québec)Canada, H3C 6W2 +1 514 868 7272+1 514 868 7234 (Fax)
VSNL India HeadquartersLokmanya Videsh Sanchar BhavanKashinath Dhuru MargPrabhadevi, Mumbai 400028India+91 22 5652 6400+91 22 5652 6401(Fax)
Middle East & North Africa
Hamdan Street, City Center Building
Block A, Office 204B
P.O. Box 41660
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
+971 2 626 6223
+971 2 627 2624 (Fax)
www.vsnlinternational.com
www.vsnlinternational.com
Thank You!
www.vsnlinternational.com