Post on 20-Mar-2017
WTO's 11th Ministerial Conference – Buenos Aires
What's at stake for domestic support
Nelson Illescas – INAI Foundation
February 22, 2017 - IFPRI
Agreement on Agriculture
2
Market access
Export Competition
Domestic Support
Producer Support Estimate – (%PSE)
Source: Generated by the authors based on data from OECD and Agrimonitor-IADB.
Importance of domestic support in agriculture
61%
54%49% 49%
45%
24%19% 19% 18% 17% 15% 15% 12% 12% 11%
9% 8%5% 3% 3% 3% 2% 1%
-23%
Three year average (2010-12)
ERAMA Zero PSE
Demand shock Shock & Zero PSE
10%
Baseline
2025
Elimination
all measures
Elimination
all measures
Co
nte
xt
Producer support
Simulated
Scenarios
5
ERAMA Zero PSE
Demand shock Shock & Zero PSE
120
154 179
142
Co
nte
xt
Producer support
World
grain and
oilseed
imports(Billion USD)
6
16.4%
17.6%
7
1.8%67 000 t
1.8%118 000 t
20%195 000 t
Demand shock (Zero PSE)
Erama(Zero PSE)
3.4%101 000 t
1.5%90 000 t
23.4%171 000 t
ABPUNet
ExportsChange
8
ABPUNet
ExportsChange
4.4%97 000 t
19.3%18 352 000 t
10.7%2 726 000 t
Erama(Zero PSE)
10.9%218 000 t
19.2%17 209 000 t
11.1%2 673 000 t
4.8%520 000 t
13%1 161 000 t
Demand shock (Zero PSE)
9
40 420 000 t
3 311 000 t
Erama(Zero PSE)
38 091 000 t
3 147 000 t
2 289 000 t 20 478 000 t
1 141 000 t 1 128 000 t
NetChange in Imports
Demand shock (Zero PSE)
Different approaches
• Domestic support• Reduction of commitment levels? New rules?
• De minimis
• Notifications
• Cotton
• Market Access?
• Export Competition
• Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes
• Special Safeguard Mechanism
Future developments
Different analysis proposed in Domestic Support
Analysis of the other pillars
Elaboration of alternative proposals
Contact UsINAI Foundation
Street: Av. Corrientes 127 4ºBuenos Aires - Argentina
nillescas@inai.org.ar
www.inai.org.ar
+5411 43121092
@Fundacion_INAI
We are Social Fundación INAI
Fundación INAI