Post on 18-Jul-2020
Major data source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates released April 9, 2019, unless otherwise indicated. Projections will change over the course of the year depending on weather and other
developments.
World Wheat Supply and
Demand Situation
April 2019
Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA’s 2018/19 Supply and Demand Estimates
1. 2018/19 global wheat production to fall for first time in 5 years• Global wheat production to fall to 733 MMT, down 4% from 2017/18• Wheat production in the European Union (EU) to fall to 138 MMT, 9% below the 5-year average• U.S. wheat production estimated at 51.3 MMT, 8% above 2017/18 levels, but 8% below the 5-year
average
2. Global consumption forecast at 739 MMT, slightly below the 2017/18 record, but 2% above the 5-year average
• EU feed wheat consumption expected to drop 8% from last year to 51 MMT • Brazil’s domestic consumption to total 12.1 MMT, 6% above the 5-year average• U.S. domestic consumption expected to reach 29.8 MMT, up slightly from 2017/18, but 6% below
the 5-year average, if realized
3. World wheat trade to fall 2% from 178 MMT in 2017/18, still 3% above the 5-year average, if realized
• Exports from the EU to increase 3% over last year’s 23.2 MMT to 24.0 MMT • U.S. 2018/19 exports to increase to 25.7 MMT, up 5% from 2017/18, if realized
Supply and Demand
Highlights of USDA’s 2018/19 Supply and Demand Estimates
4. World beginning stocks estimated at record 282 MMT, 7% higher than last year and 27% higher than the 5-year average
• India’s beginning stocks are expected to total12.3 MMT, up 35% year over year• U.S. beginning stocks estimated at 29.9 MMT, 7% below 2017/18 levels, but 30% above the 5-
year average
5. Global ending stocks projected at 276 MMT, 2% below last year, but 14% above the 5-year average
• Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 140 MMT account for 50% of global ending stocks and will rise 43% above the 5-year average, if realized
• U.S. ending stocks expected to total 29.6 MMT, slightly below last year, but 18% above the 5-year average, if realized
6. U.S. farm gate average price forecast 10% higher in 2018/19• Projected average range: $5.15 to $5.25/bushel ($189-$193/MT)*
*Average U.S. farm gate price, marketing year weighted average
Supply and Demand
World Production and Use
756 763
733
739 744739
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
MM
T
Production Use
Supply and Demand
Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*
*Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
63 72 72
405 395 368
468 468 442
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500M
MT
Beginning Stocks Production
Supply and Demand
World Wheat Supply and Demand16/17 17/18 18/19
MMTSUPPLY: Beginning Stocks 245 262 282
Production 756 763 733Supply Total 1001 1026 1015
TRADE: Exports/Imports 183 181 178
DEMAND Food & Seed 592 597 600Feed & Residual 147 147 140Use Total 739 744 739
ENDING STOCKS: 262 282 276
Supply and Demand
World Beginning Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
52 56 57
17 21 21
79 70 73
97 115131
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Historical Five Major Exporters Black Sea Others China
Supply and Demand
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio
*Ending stocks
3538 37
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Perc
ent
Supply and Demand
Global Stocks*-to-Use Ratio w/o China
*Ending stocks
24 2422
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
Perc
ent
Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks
Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU-27. Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
56 57 50
21 2113
70 7372
115131
140
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
5 Major Exporters Black Sea Other China
Supply and Demand
World Ending Stocks by Position(million metric tons)
Exporters, 63.8
Importers, 71.8
China, 140
Supply and Demand
Global Ending Stocks and Price
56 57 50
21 2113
185204
212
188214
237
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
05/06 09/10 13/14 17/18
$US/
MT
MM
T
Historical 5 Majors Black Sea Rest of World HRW price
Major ExportersImport DemandU.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
Exportable Supplies in Top Exporting Countries
50 51
19 18
53 43
1110
3229
27
28
20
14
13
15
0
50
100
150
200
250
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Argentina
Australia
Canada
EU-25
Kazakhstan
Russia
Ukraine
U.S
Canada Situation
5.2 6.9 5.9
32.130.0 31.8
20.222.0 24.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Canada Ending Stocks
6.9
5.9
4.9
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19
MM
T
Australia Situation
3.9 5.7 5.9
31.821.3
17.322.6
13.9 10.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Australia Ending Stocks
5.7 5.9
4.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
Argentina Situation
0.8 0.3 0.9
18.4 18.5
19.5
13.8 12.213.7
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Argentina Ending Stocks
0.3
0.9 1.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
EU- 27 Situation
15.5 10.7 14.1
145151
138
27.4 23.3 24.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
EU-27 Ending Stocks
10.7
14.1
10.7
0
5
10
15
20
25
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
Russia Situation
5.6 10.8 12.0
73
85
72
27.8
41.437.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Russia Ending Stocks
10.8
12.0
6.7
0
5
10
15
20
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
Black Sea Region Situation
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are the most important wheat producers in the Black Sea Region.
17.0 21.2 21.0
130142 125
54.469.1 63.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic use
Black Sea Exports
27.8
41.4 37.0
18.1
17.816.5
7.4
9.08.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan
Black Sea Ending Stocks
21.2 21.0
13.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
U.S. Situation
26.6 32.1 29.9
62.8
47.451.3
28.624.5 25.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports Domestic Use
U.S. Ending Stocks
32.129.9 29.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MM
T
Major Exporters
Import DemandU.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
Major World Wheat Importers(from all origins)
0123456789
10111213
MM
T
2018/19 2017/18
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
5-year average
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of April 4, 2019
Top 10 Customers for U.S. Wheat
Year-to-date
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
MM
T
2018/19 2017/18
World Wheat Imports
Trend in “other” importers denoted ( )
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
02/03 08/09 12/13 16/17
MM
T
"Other" China FSU EU-28
Major ExportersImport Demand
U.S. Situation by ClassOutlook
U.S. Wheat Plantings by Class
*Source: USDA Prospective Plantings Report, March 29, 2019
26.5 23.8 23.2
6.65.6 5.9
4.24.0 4.1
2.12.3 2.0
11.410.3 12.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19*
Mill
ion
Acre
sU.S. Wheat Plantings by Class
HRW SRW White Durum HRS
U.S. Hard Red Winter
16.0 15.8
20.4 18.0
10.1 9.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Hard Red Spring
6.4 5.2
10.5
16.0
6.2 7.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Soft Red Winter
5.9 5.6
7.9
7.8
2.53.5
0
5
10
15
20
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. White
2.9 2.4
7.0 7.4
5.3 5.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Durum
1.0 1.0
1.5 2.1
1.4
1.5
0.50.7
0
1
2
3
4
5
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
MM
T
Beginning stocks Production Imports Exports
U.S. Wheat Sales by Class(year-to-date)
Source: USDA FAS export sales data as of April 4, 2019
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
HRW HRS White SRW Durum
MM
T
2018/19 2017/18
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks by Class
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
HRW HRS SRW White Durum
MM
T
13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
HRW HRS SRW17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19
MMTBeginning Stocks 16.0 15.8 6.4 5.2 5.9 5.6Production 20.4 18.0 10.5 16.0 8.0 7.8Imports 0.2 0.2 2.4 2.0 0.1 0.2Supply Total 36.6 34.0 19.2 23.1 14.0 13.5
Domestic Use 10.7 11.7 7.8 7.8 5.9 5.4Exports 10.1 9.0 6.2 7.1 2.5 3.5Use Total 20.8 20.7 14.0 14.9 8.4 9.0Ending Stocks 15.8 13.3 5.2 8.3 5.6 4.6Stocks-to-Use 76% 65% 37% 56% 67% 51%
U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand
17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19 17/18 18/19
Beginning Stocks 2.9 2.4 1.0 1.0 32.1 29.9Production 7.0 7.4 1.5 2.1 47.4 51.3Imports 0.2 0.2 1.4 1.5 4.3 3.9Supply Total 10.1 9.9 3.9 4.5 83.8 85.1
Domestic Use 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.4 29.4 29.9Exports 5.3 5.4 0.5 0.7 24.5 25.7Use Total 7.7 8.1 2.9 3.0 53.9 55.6Ending Stocks 2.4 1.9 1.0 1.5 29.9 29.6Stocks-to-Use 31% 23% 33% 49% 56% 53%
MMT
White Durum Total
U.S. FOB Gulf Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, April 5, 2019
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW ords HRS 14% SRW
U.S. FOB PNW Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, April 5, 2019
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
$/M
etric
Ton
HRW 11.5% HRS 14% SW
SRW and Soft White Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, April 5, 2019
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
$/M
etric
Ton
SW SRW
U.S. Gulf Basis Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, April 5, 2019
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 13.5 HRW 12 SRW
U.S. PNW Basis Prices
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, April 5, 2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19
$/M
etric
Ton
HRS 14 HRW 12
Major ExportersImport DemandU.S. Situation by Class
Outlook
U.S. Wheat Area and Production
17.715.2 16.0
62.8
47.4
51.3
3.5
3.1 3.2
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
MT/
hect
ares
Prod
uctio
n (M
MT)
and
Har
vest
ed A
rea
(mh)
Harvested Area Production Yield
U.S. Crop Planted Area Comparison
*Source: USDA Prospective Planting Report, March 29, 2019
45.7 47.345.8
90.2
89.1
92.8
90.1
89.6
84.6
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18 19/20*
Mill
ion
Acre
s
Wheat All Corn for Grain Soybeans
World WheatProduction, Use and Trade
735 75
6
763
733
711 73
9
744
739
173
183 181178
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
World CornProduction, Use and Trade
1123
1076
1107
1060
1090 1128
160147 168
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
World SoybeansProduction, Use and Trade
349
342 36
1
331
339
349
148 153 154
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
Trad
e (M
MT)
Prod
uctio
n an
d U
se (M
MT)
Production Use Trade
Ocean Freight Rates for Grains
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
3/1/
17
4/1/
17
5/1/
17
6/1/
17
7/1/
17
8/1/
17
9/1/
17
10/1
/17
11/1
/17
12/1
/17
1/1/
18
2/1/
18
3/1/
18
4/1/
18
5/1/
18
6/1/
18
7/1/
18
8/1/
18
9/1/
18
10/1
/18
11/1
/18
12/1
/18
1/1/
19
2/1/
19
3/1/
19
$/m
etric
ton
PNW to Japan Gulf to Middle East
Great Lakes to East Med Gulf to West Africa
*Source: U.S. Wheat Associates Price Report, April 5, 2019
Summary• Global production to fall for first time in 5 years
• Chinese wheat production to fall to 131 MMT, 2% below 2017/18• Russian wheat production to fall to 71.7 MMT, 16% below last year• EU wheat production to fall 9% year over year to 138 MMT• Wheat production in the United States to reach 51.3 MMT, up 8% from 2017/18, if realized
• Global ending stocks to reach 276 MMT, 14% above the 5-year average, if realized
• Estimated Chinese ending stocks of 140 MMT are 7% higher than last year and 43% above the 5-year average, if realized
• U.S. ending stocks to total 29.6 MMT, down 1% from 2017/18, but 18% above the 5-year average
• World consumption and trade expected to fall slightly below 2017/18; but will both exceed their 5-year average by 3%
• EU total domestic consumption to fall 6% from last year to 123 MMT• Chinese domestic consumption to reach 125 MMT, 3% above last year and 5% above the 5-year
average, if realized • U.S. 2018/19 exports revised down from 26.3 MMT in February to 25.7 MMT in March, up 5% year
over year, if realized