INFLUENZA A (H1N1) INFLUENZA A (H1N1)

AND ITS AFFECT TO THE RECOVERY OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS

CONTENTSCONTENTS

1) Introduction

2) Biological Aspect

3) Economic Aspect

4) Future Prediction

5) Summary

INTRO TO H1N1

• Popular name: Swine (pig) flu.

• Successor of the disastrous Spanish flu pandemic (1918).

• First officially indentified in 24th April 2009 (actually suspected in 18th March).

• 12th May 2009, 30 countries have officially reported 5251 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, 61 deaths.

BIOLOGICAL ASPECT

• This virus spreads from person-to-person, probably in much the same way that regular seasonal influenza viruses spread.

• SYMPTOMS: +) Similar to the symptoms of seasonal flu. +) Fever, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, body

aches, headache, chills and fatigue. +) Some cases even suffer diarrhea and vomiting

TREATMENTS

• CDC recommends the use of Oseltamivir or Zanamivir.

• Antiviral drugs are prescription medicines (pills, liquid or an inhaler) that fight against the flu by keeping flu viruses from reproducing in your body, make your illness milder and make you feel better faster.

STEPS TO PREVENT SWINE FLU

• Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze.

• Wash your hands often with soap and water.• Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. • Try to avoid close contact with sick people.• Stay home if you are sick for 7 days after your

symptoms begin or until you have been symptom-free for 24 hours, whichever is longer.

ECONOMIC ASPECT

We all agree that:

“A worldwide influenza A H1N1 pandemic could have a major effect on the global economy, including travel, trade, tourism, food, consumption and eventually, investment and financial markets”.

• Investors concerned flu will be led to cancellation of tourists to overseas, or even limited travel:

Shares of airline global reduce . For example, the stock of Cathay Pacific decreased 8% or Australia’s Qantas decreased 4% in shares.

Shares of most business travel lower, with shares in Intercontinental Hotels decreased 4.4%, and Thomas Cook travel decreased 4.5%.

Shares of pharmaceutical companies increase, such as Joint Stock Company Switzerland's Roche increased 4%.

Lower oil prices to be afraid that the flu will be impacted negatively to the world economy (about $ 48.96 for each oil barrel)

RATIONALES:

In a financial crisis:

• Businesses in industries affected by pandemic (or fear of pandemic) will fail, leaving their debts unpaid.

• Debtors will die, leaving their debts unpaid as well.

• Families will lose breadwinners, adding to the burden on aid agencies and others.

• Governments will be too distracted by the new crisis to deal effectively with the old one.

CONT’

• Risk premiums for countries affected by the pandemic might rise.

• Worries about safety, justified or not, pose risks to trade. • A pandemic would dent hopes of a rapid recovery

from recession, by providing yet another reason for gloom to continue.

• In 2008, WB estimated if a pandemic occurs in the world, it will cost 3 thousand billion dollars and lose 5% of total world output and make 70 million people died.

Mexico’s economy has been affected HEAVILY by the flu.

• Because of the fear of influenza A (H1N1), people avoid going out and that has costed Mexico City’s service and retail industries $55 mils a day from April 24th, when authorities first closed schools.

• Travel in and out of Mexico is restricted.• Several countries immediately banned pork

imports from Mexico.

=> Mexico’s economy is already weak and it may be more fragile.

FUTURE PREDICTION

• The near future:• Increasing internet shopping as well as

home based pastime instead of oversea touring.

• Extending the depression for an unexpected time (especially in developing and poor countries).

• Reducing the countries’ productivities.

• The far future:• Decline the scale of pandemic due to the

discovery of vaccine and remedy.

SUMMARYSwine flu not just

affects the economy directly, it also creates an anxiety among people.

A new hybrid virus of H1N1 and the fatal H5N1.

REFERENTIAL LISTS

http://www.who.int/http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/http://www.gob.mx/ http://www.fas.org/programs/

ssp/bio/factsheets/H1N1factsheet.

http://www.economist.com/

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