Post on 26-Mar-2015
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
Wilfried Kurtzke
Answers of IG Metall to
the Financial and Economic Crisis
- Protection of Jobs
- Stabilisation of the Economy
- Shaping the Future
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
2Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
Reasons of the Financial Crisis
1. Excess of capital caused by a wrong income distribution
2. Deregulation of financial markets
3. Securitization of credits –a huge risk for financial markets
4. Worldwide imbalances –the stimulation of speculation
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
3Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
Reasons of the Financial Crisis
10,1
29,4 31,744,5
63,3
12
64
93
140
214
1980 1995 2000 2005 2010*
Sozialprodukt
Finanzvermögen
Entwicklung von Sozialprodukt und Finanzvermögen weltweit,1980-2010 in Billionen US-Dollar
Quelle: McKinsey Quarterly, January 2007, Mapping the global capital markets, S.8
Worldwide development of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [blue bar]
and
financial capital [red bar]
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
4Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
Economic Framework
Cyclical decline
Financial market crisis influences the producing economy
Too high dependence of foreign trade
Weak domestic economy
Result: massive collapse of foreign demandlead to a heavy recession in Germany
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
5Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
Economy Faces Deep Crisis
The largest decline of the GDP for 80 yearsgross domestic product, annual percentage change
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, alle Zahlen vor 1992 w egen diverser statistischer Änderungen nur bedingt vergleichbar, Zahlen für 2009 und 2010 Frühjahrsprognose der InstituteGrafik: IG Metall
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
6Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
German Economy Faces a Deep Crisis
Gross Domestic Product,2000=100, seasonally adjusted
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
1.VJ05
2.VJ05
3.VJ05
4.VJ05
1.VJ06
2.VJ06
3.VJ06
4.VJ06
1.VJ07
2.VJ07
3.VJ07
4.VJ07
1.VJ08
2.VJ08
3.VJ08
4.VJ08
1.VJ09
2.VJ09
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Grafik: IG Metall
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
7Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
German Economy Faces a Deep Crisis
The sharpest decline of GDP for 80 years
gross domestic product, annual percentage change
2,0 2,0
3,2
1,2
3,02,5
1,3
+1,2
-4,9to
-6,5
to -0,5
0,81,1
0,0-0,2
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Forecast
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Prognosen der Institute im Frühjahr/Sommer 2009Grafik: IG Metall
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
8Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
German Economy Faces a Deep Crisis
Aggregated Components of GDP 2009Forecast
annual percentage change
-17,8
-3,7
0,2
1,7
-6,5
-22,0 Investment in new equipment
Exports
Building investments
Private consumption
Public consumption
Gross domestic product
Quelle: IMK, Juli 2009 Grafik: IG Metall
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
9Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
Crisis Reaches Labour Market
-12,7 -11,6
-8,9
-4,7
5,0 5,3
7,9 7,9 8,6
-1,8
2,2
Okt 08 Nov 08 Dez 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mrz 09 Apr 09 Mai 09 Jun 09 Jul 09 Aug 09
Quelle: Bundesagentur für Arbeit Grafik: IG Metall
Rising Unemployment annual percentage change
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
10Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
Crisis Reaches Labour Market
270.472
572.217
1.076.160
1.246.618
130.13370.983
Okt 08 Nov 08 Dez 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mrz 09
Quelle: Bundesagentur für Arbeit Grafik: IG Metall
Short-time workers
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
11Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
A Sharp Decline of Orders
Orders in different branches organized by the IG Metall
Change July 2009/08 in percent
-16,5
-21,7
-29,5
-32,4
-40,7
-15,7
-6,4
-16,8
-21,7
DV, Elektronik, Optik
Automobilindustrie
Textilindustrie
Metallerzeugung und -bearbeitung
Metall- und Elektroindustrie
Metallerzeugnisse
Elektr. Ausrüstungen
Bekleidungsindustrie
Maschinenbau
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Darstellung ohne sonstigen Fahrzeugbau Grafik: IG Metall
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
12Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
Production Collapses Overall
-10,0
-11,9
-14,1
-15,3
-20,7
-23,5
-24,5
-25,2
-28,4
-31,5
-24,5
-26,4
Holzgewerbe
Möbelindustrie
Bekleidungsindustrie
Textilindustrie
Automobilindustrie
Metallerzeugnisse
Metall- und Elektroindustrie
Elektrische Ausrüstungen
DV, Elektronik, Optik
Luft-, Wasser-, Schienenfahrzeuge
Metallerzeugung und -bearbeitung
Maschinenbau
Production collapses in all branches organized by the IG Metall Change July 2009/08 in percent
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Grafik: IG Metall
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
13Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
Economy is Going Through the Trough
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
calendar and seasonally adjusted
original data
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt Grafik: IG Metall
Orders in metalworking industryIndex: 2005 = 100
July 09/ Jun 09: + 3,7%July 09/ July 08: -21,7%
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
14Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
No dismissals –the agenda of IG Metall against the crisis
As an answer to the crises in November 2008IG Metall released seven points in orderto protect employment and to stabilise the economy
1. No dismissals
2. Protection of temporary working persons
3. Corporate financing must be guaranteed
(by banks and the government)
4. Stabilising private demand by „cash for clunkers“ (2500.- Euro for an at least 10year-old junk car)
5. Stabilising private demand by „consumption cheques“
6. Public Future Fund „Work - Education - Environment“
7. Increase of participation of workers and employees
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
15Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
No dismissals –the agenda of IG Metall against the crisis
Still facing the crises in March 2009
IG Metall created another action program
Leaving the crises actively behind –united for good working and living conditions
1. Protection of employment in the producing economy
2. More democracy in the economy, i.e.
more participation for the working class
3. A stronger regulation of financial markets
4. The costs and burden of the crises should be paid by the wealthy
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
16Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
Anticyclical policy of the government
The government had to act and must still act in order to stabilise the economy. The government acted unassertively. But by taking off the ideological blinkers the government decided to switch to an anti-cyclical economic policy. So it prevented a worse economic development.
An improved regulation of “short-time work” helped to reduce the rise of unemployment.
“cash for clunkers / junk cars” strengthened car sales.
Tax- and duty-reductions are not helpful to stimulate economic growth.
Instead: More public investment is the better way to generate economic growth. Especially here we need stronger efforts.Annually eight to nine billions Euro are much to less.
All in all the economic programs of the government are created not big enough and come much too late. The Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK) estimates the impulses for growth of the whole package of measures only at 0.6 percentage points in this year.
WirtschaftTechnologie
Umwelt Vorstand
17Study visit of the group of impartial chairmen (OpO, Sweden) 09-10-01
Assumptions of Economic Trends
GDP-Forecast 2009 bis 20134 possible trends
2008 = 100
88,0
90,0
92,0
94,0
96,0
98,0
100,0
102,0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt. Ab 2009: Szenarien IG Metall
S 1: depression (91,1)
S 2: stagnation (96,2)
S 3: low growth (98,2)
S 4: high growth(101,1)