Grain and Livestock Marketing LaVell Winsor Commodity Advisor Loewen & Associates 785-220-5451 lavellwinsor@cox.net

Agenda

• Commodity Marketing Basics • Fundamental and Technical Analysis

and the major issues that affect each • World Issues to Watch • Marketing Terms • Market Outlook

Risk Disclosure This does constitute a solicitation to buy or sell commodities futures and/or options. The information contained herein is provided for informational purposes only. The information is not guaranteed as to its accuracy or completeness, although the information was taken from sources we believe to be reliable. The market recommendations of Loewen and Associates, Inc. are based solely on the judgment of Loewen and Associates, Inc. personnel. We do not guarantee or warranty, either expressed or implied, of success to you in the use of this information. Loewen and Associates, Inc. disclaims responsibility for or loss associated with use of information from our commentary, analysis or recommendations. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. The risk in trading can be substantial; therefore only genuine “risk” funds should be used.

Marketing 101

Cash Price

• Cash = Futures + Basis • Cash Corn in Topeka, KS

$4.40 Cash = $4.45 Futures - $.05 Basis

Futures

• Cash = Futures + Basis • Cash Corn in Topeka, KS

– $4.40 Cash = $4.45 Futures - $.05 Basis

• What Impacts the Futures Price?

Basis

• Cash = Futures + Basis • Cash Corn in Topeka, KS

– $4.40 Cash = $4.45 Futures - $.05 Basis

• What Impacts the Basis? – Basis is a local barometer of supply and demand.

Fundamental & Technical Analysis

• Fundamentals – Weather – Supply and Demand – Logistics – Exports

Fundamental & Technical Analysis

Supply and Demand

• USDA Supply and Demand Report monthly US CORN SUPPLY & DEMAND

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2013/14JAN 2014 FEB 2014

Planted Acres 88.2 91.9 97.2 95.4 95.4Harvested Acres 81.46 84 87.4 87.7 87.7% Harvested 92.36% 91.40% 89.92% 91.93% 91.93%Yield 152.8 147.2 123.4 158.8 158.8Beg Stocks 1708 1128 989 821 821Production 12447 12360 10780 13925 13925Imports 28 29 162 35 35Total Supply 14183 13517 11932 14781 14781Feed 4793 4557 4335 5300 5300Food & Seed 1407 1428 1396 1400 1400Ethanol 5019 5000 4648 5000 5000Export 1835 1543 731 1450 1600Total Use 13054 12528 11111 13150 13300Ending Stocks 1128 989 821 1631 1481Stocks to Use % 8.64% 7.89% 7.39% 12.40% 11.10%

Countries to Watch

• Brazil and Argentina • China • India • Russia • Continent of Africa • United States Consumers

Marketing Terms

• Bullish/Bearish • Carry/Inverse • Long/Short • Hedger/Speculator • Marketing Plan • Grain Buyer/Broker/Commodity Advisor

Role of a Commodity Advisor

• Works with you to execute your marketing plan – Move all grain at harvest or all farm storage – Where can you ship your grain to? – How to capture the best overall price

• Futures market pricing then add in basis and carry into marketing

Market Outlook

• Corn • Soybean • Wheat • Cattle

LaVell Winsor, Commodity Advisor Loewen and Associates 785-220-5451, lavellwinsor@cox.net