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©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. AFS and all AFS product trademarks Are registered trademarks of Automated Financial Systems, Inc. The content of this document represents confidential and proprietary information of AFS. This information may not be disclosed to any third party, other than the direct addressee and its employees, agents, and representatives. The infringement of this prohibition may violate AFS proprietary and trade secret rights with resulting irreparable damage to AFS. Your cooperation is requested and appreciated. Thank you for your help in this matter. AFS 123 Summit Drive, Exton, Pennsylvania 19341. Telephone (610) 524-9300 Fax (610) 524-7977
November 2, 2017
Winners and LosersCommercial Lending Dynamics
AFS Best Practices Leadership Council Webinar Series Presents:
Special FeatureOptimizing Risk and Return Using
The AFS Pricing Dashboard
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AFS Pricing Dashboard
The Industry Source for Commercial Lending Pricing Trends
Includes $1 trillion in commercial loan commitments, with 80,000 new or renewed loans added per quarter
Benchmarking of key loan pricing and volume growth metrics against market peers
Robust platform for analytics, reporting and monitoring
Metrics Spread Pricing Fees Balance Growth New/Renewed Volume
Northeast Region
Middle Atlantic Region
South Region
Eastern Midwest Region
Western Midwest Region
Southwest Region
West Region
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Financial Market Overview
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
Source: Federal Reserve Board – Statistical Releases
…Oil prices hovered around a spot price of $50, a higher price than seen a year ago…
The pace of annualized Real GDP growth held steady in 3Q17 at approximately 3%…
…The yield on 10‐year treasuries was up 57 bps in September when compared to the same month a year earlier…
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0
10-Year Treasuries
010203040506070
Jan
2015
Feb
2015
Mar
201
5A
pr 2
015
May
201
5Ju
n 20
15Ju
l 201
5A
ug 2
015
Sep
2015
Oct
201
5N
ov 2
015
Dec
201
5Ja
n 20
16Fe
b 20
16M
ar 2
016
Apr
201
6M
ay 2
016
Jun
2016
Jul 2
016
Aug
201
6Se
p 20
16O
ct 2
016
Nov
201
6D
ec 2
016
Jan
2017
Feb
2017
Mar
201
7A
pr 2
017
May
201
7Ju
n 20
17Ju
l 201
7A
ug 2
017
Sep
2017
Oct
201
7
Cushing OK WTISpot Price FOB Dollars per Barrel
% Change Real GDPSeasonally Adjusted
Annual Rates
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0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
10-Year Treasuries Fixed-Rate Loans >10 Years(AFS Pricing Dashboard)
One-Month LIBOR LIBOR-Rate Loans(AFS Pricing Dashboard)
5-Year Treasuries
Bank Pricing vs. Market Rates
Bank Pricing vs. Market Rates
Sources: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017Federal Reserve Board – Statistical Releases
+54 BPS y/y
+70 BPS y/y
+64 BPS y/y
+57 BPS y/y
+62 BPS y/y
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.6November 2, 2017
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Agenda
September 2017 Market Review Balance Growth Line Utilization New/Renewed Volume Spread Pricing Fee Pricing
Special Topic: Optimizing Risk and Return Using the AFS Pricing Dashboard
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100
150
200
250
300
350New Renewed 10-Year Treasuries
LIBOR-Equivalent Spread (in BPS) TrendAll Loan Types
$0$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35
New Renewed
New and Renewed Loans Trend ($ Billions)All Loan Types
Commercial Loan Market Overview: September 2017
Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
Sep 20120.39%
Sep 20131.40%
Sep 20141.80% Sep 2015
1.56% Sep 20160.23%
Sep 20170.20%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Perc
ent G
row
th
Growth in Outstandings - Quarterly Trend(Quarter-over-Quarter Growth Rates)
05
1015202530354045
2016* 2017*
Total Fees Upfront Fees
Total Fees Paid (in BPS) - Bilateral LoansYear-over-Year Comparison
* Based on Comparative Jan-Sep Periods
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What Trump Bump? Businesses are Confident but They Aren’t Borrowing from Banks
“Since President Donald Trump’s election, bankers and investors predicted that pro‐business policies would lead to a surge in corporate borrowing, which would help bank profits.
Instead, the growth of loans to companies has dropped precipitously since last November.
But analysts say the prolonged slowdown in commercial‐loan growth may simply be a function of the metric returning to its normal level in recent decades. Growth in the category ran far above gross domestic product growth in the years following the financial crisis, a streak that is difficult to maintain for any prolonged period.
Lending profits at the banks largely depend on the dynamic between loan growth and interest rates. While recent increases in short‐term rates have made floating‐rate commercial loans more lucrative, the benefit has been limited by the fact that banks aren’t making many more loans.”
—Wall Street Journal, October 10, 2017
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Balances for Both Bilateral Loans and Participations Were Up Modestly in 3Q17
Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%
Perc
ent G
row
th
Bilateral Loans Participations
Growth in Outstandings - Quarterly Trend)Quarter-over-Quarter Growth Rates(
-3.41%-1.84%
2.40%
7.26%
2.37%
-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
< $1M $1M to< $5M
$5M to< $25M
>= $25M CRE
Perc
ent G
row
th
Growth in Outstandings - Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017Bilateral Loans
C&I BilateralLoans
-4.91%
-8.21%
1.82%0.60%
5.68%
-10.0%-8.0%-6.0%-4.0%-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%
< $1M $1M to< $5M
$5M to< $25M
>= $25M CRE
Perc
ent G
row
th
Growth in Outstandings - Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017Participations
C&I Participations
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Participations Fueled CRE Balance Growth in 3Q17
Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Perc
ent G
row
th
Bilateral Loans Participations
Growth in Outstandings - Quarterly Trend - CRE(Quarter-over-Quarter Growth Rates)
-3.42%
0.34%2.69%
7.01%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
< $1M $1M to< $5M
$5M to< $25M
>= $25M
Perc
ent G
row
th
Growth in Outstandings - Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017Bilateral Loans - CRE
-10.98%
5.14%1.28%
11.18%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
< $1M $1M to< $5M
$5M to< $25M
>= $25M
Perc
ent G
row
th
Growth in Outstandings - Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017Participations - CRE
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Participations Drive Total Balance Growth Over the Long Term
Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Percen
t Growth vs. 201
2 Ba
seline
< $1M $1M to < $5M $5M to < $25M >= $25M CRE Participations
Growth in Outstandings ‐ December 2012 BaselineBy Loan Size
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Bilateral Loans Only ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
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New York Ranks in the Top 5 for Both Bilateral Loans and Participations
Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
9.5%4.8%
3.9%3.6%2.9%
2.0%-1.5%-2.0%
-3.6%-3.6%
-6.1%
Georgia
New YorkNorth Carolina
California
Florida
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
TennesseeColorado
Louisiana
Growth in Outstandings - Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017Bilateral Loans
Nat'l Avg
4.9%4.4%4.3%
2.3%2.1%0.8%
-1.8%-3.1%
-3.7%-4.3%
-6.3%
Georgia
North Carolina
New York
CaliforniaFlorida
Massachusetts
ColoradoMinnesota
TennesseeArizona
Growth in Outstandings - Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017All Loan Types
Nat'l Avg
9.0%7.8%
6.0%3.0%2.8%
-2.2%-1.5%-1.6%
-5.7%-5.7%-5.7%
Maryland
North CarolinaNew Jersey
New York
Pennsylvania
CaliforniaTexasGeorgia
Massachusetts
Tennessee
Growth in Outstandings - Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017Participations
Nat'l Avg
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* Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs)Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan.Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
Drilling Down to the CBSA* Level
2.90%
4.35%
0.15%
12.76%
0.62%
-0.32%-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
Flor
ida
Mia
mi,
FL
Tam
pa, F
L
Orl
ando
, FL
Jack
sonv
ille,
FL
Nor
th P
ort-
Sar
asot
a, F
L
Per
cent
Gro
wth
Growth in Outstandings - BilateralFlorida
Dec 2016 to Sep 2017
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Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
Bilateral Loan Balances Up Year to Date Across Half of the States
Top 5 States1. California2. New York3. Georgia4. Florida5. North Carolina
Bottom 5 States1. Pennsylvania2. New Jersey3. Tennessee4. Colorado5. Louisiana
AL
ARAZ
CA CO
CT
DCDE
FL
GA
IA
ID
IL INKS KY
LA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
MO
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PARI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UTVA
VTWA
WI
WV
WY
Growth in OutstandingsDec 2016 vs. Sep 2017
Bilateral Loans
Negative Growth$0 to $100M$100M to $250M $250M to $500M Greater-than $500MInsufficient Data
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Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
Participation Balance Growth Remains Heavily Concentrated Within a Small Number of States
Top 5 States1. New York2. Maryland3. New Jersey4. Pennsylvania5. North Carolina
Bottom 5 States1. Massachusetts2. Georgia3. California4. Texas5. Tennessee
AL
ARAZ
CA CO
CT
DCDE
FL
GA
IA
ID
IL INKS KY
LA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
MO
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PARI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UTVA
VTWA
WI
WV
WY
Growth in OutstandingsDec 2016 vs. Sep 2017
Participations
Negative Growth$0 to $100M$100M to $250M $250M to $500M Greater-than $500MInsufficient Data
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Finance & Insurance Drives Bilateral Balance GrowthParticipations Up Significantly in the Retail Trade Sector
Note: Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
4.7%4.6%
3.3%3.1%2.9%
0.8%-3.5%
-4.8%-6.9%
-9.7%-12.7%
Accommodation & Food Services
Finance & Insurance
Admin, Support, Waste Mgmt Public Administration
Health Care & Social Assistance
Manufacturing (Machinery, Elec)
Information Professional, Scientific, & Tech
Mining, Oil & Gas
Transportation (Air, Water, Truck)
Growth in Outstandings - Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017All Loan Types
All Industries Avg
14.9%9.8%
4.0%3.9%3.7%
2.0%-1.5%
-3.6%-4.9%
-5.8%-6.1%
Utilities
Finance & Insurance
Accommodation & Food Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Public Administration
Retail Trade (Motor, Elec, Bldg)
Manufacturing (Wood, Chem) Professional, Scientific, & Tech
Transportation (Air, Water, Truck) Agriculture
Growth in Outstandings - Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017Bilateral Loans
All Industries Avg
7.8%6.9%6.6%6.3%
2.9%-2.2%
-7.6%-8.2%-8.3%
-9.8%-11.6%
Retail Trade (Motor, Elec, Bldg) Admin, Support, Waste Mgmt
Accommodation & Food Services
Retail Trade (Hobby, General) Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing (Food, Bev, Apparel) Manufacturing (Machinery, Elec)
Information
Professional, Scientific, & Tech Mining, Oil & Gas
Growth in Outstandings - Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017Participations
All Industries Avg
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Note: Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
Drilling Down to the 6‐Digit NAICS Level
3.99%
2.73%
4.10%
7.97%
-0.34%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
72Accommodation& Food Services
722Food Services &Drinking Places
722513Limited-Service
Restaurants
722511Full-ServiceRestaurants
722320Caterers
Per
cent
Gro
wth
Growth in Outstandings - BilateralAccommodation& Food Services
Dec 2016 to Sep 2017
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Balance Growth by State and Industry: Bilateral Loans
Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
AL
ARAZ
CA CO
CT
DCDE
FL
GA
IA
ID
IL INKS KY
LA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
MO
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PARI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UTVA
VTWA
WI
WV
WY
Growth in Outstandings - Predominant C&I Industries*Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017
Bilateral Loans
Retail & Wholesale TradeHealth CareFinance & Management of CompaniesManufacturingMining and TransportationAccommodation, Entertainment, & FoodOther
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Industry Classification
Industry Sector NAICSAccommodation, Entertainment, & Food 71 Arts, Entertainment, & RecreationAccommodation, Entertainment, & Food 72 Accommodation & Food ServicesFinance & Management of Companies 52 Finance & InsuranceFinance & Management of Companies 55 Management of Companies & EnterprisesHealth Care 62 Health Care & Social AssistanceManufacturing 31 ManufacturingManufacturing 32 ManufacturingManufacturing 33 ManufacturingMining and Transportation 21 Mining, Quarrying, & Oil & Gas ExtractionMining and Transportation 48 Transportation & WarehousingMining and Transportation 49 Transportation & WarehousingOther 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & HuntingOther 22 UtilitiesOther 51 InformationOther 54 Professional, Scientific, & Technical ServicesOther 56 Administrative & Support & Waste Management & RemediationOther 61 Educational ServicesOther 81 Other Services (except Public Administration)Other 92 Public AdministrationRetail & Wholesale Trade 42 Wholesale TradeRetail & Wholesale Trade 44 Retail TradeRetail & Wholesale Trade 45 Retail Trade
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Balance Growth by State and Industry: Participations
Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
AL
ARAZ
CA CO
CT
DCDE
FL
GA
IA
ID
IL INKS KY
LA
MA
MD
ME
MI
MN
MO
MS
MT
NC
ND
NE
NH
NJ
NM
NV
NY
OH
OK
OR
PARI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UTVA
VTWA
WI
WV
WY
Growth in Outstandings - Predominant C&I Industries*Dec 2016 vs. Sep 2017
Participations
Retail & Wholesale TradeHealth CareFinance & Management of CompaniesManufacturingMining and TransportationAccommodation, Entertainment, & FoodOther
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GDP and Loan Growth: Is there a Correlation?
During every quarter since 2016, total commercial loan balance growth for the top 10 CBSAs* in terms of Real GDP outpaced the balance growth for all other geographic regions, sometimes substantially so.
* Top 10 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) based on contribution to total U.S. Real GDP. Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017Real GDP data sourced from the Bureau of Economic Analysis
3.0%
4.8%5.5% 5.8%
6.3%
7.3%
8.4%
1.5%
2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 3.0% 3.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Mar 2016 Jun 2016 Sep 2016 Dec 2016 Mar 2017 Jun 2017 Sep 2017
% G
row
th
Growth in Outstandings - December 2015 BaselineTop 10 CBSAs vs. All Other Regions
Top 10 CBSAsAll Other Regions
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Overall Line of Credit Utilization Remained Flat in September
Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
20%
30%
40%
50%
60% Overall Line Usage < $1M $1M to < $5M $5M to < $25M >= $25M Participations
Line of Credit Utilization Rate - By Deal SizeRevolving Lines of Credit Only
49.4%47.3%46.2%
44.8%44.2%
38.4%31.8%31.0%
29.6%28.5%28.3%
UtahNew Hampshire
Kansas
Oregon
MissouriNorth Carolina
WashingtonRhode Island
Arizona
Top 5 / Bottom 5 States - Line Utilization Sep 2017 All Loan Types
South Carolina
Nat'l Avg
48.8%48.4%
45.3%44.8%
41.2%38.4%
32.6%32.5%32.2%
23.1%22.1%
Transportation (Postal, Courier)
Agriculture
Wholesale Trade Retail Trade (Motor, Elec, Bldg)
Other Services
Information
Retail Trade (Hobby, General)
Management
Educational Services Utilities
Top 5 / Bottom 5 C&I Industries - Line Utilization Sep 2017 All Loan Types
All Industries Avg
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100
150
200
250
300
350
400New Renewed 10-Year Treasuries
LIBOR-Equivalent Spreads (in BPS) TrendBilateral Loans
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20New Renewed
New and Renewed Loan Volume ($ Billions)Bilateral Loans
New and Renewed Bilateral Volume Down Year Over YearWith Loan Spreads Trending Beneath the Averages Seen a Year Ago
Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
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Volume vs. Spread Pricing: New/Renewed Bilateral LoansState and Industry Detail for the Most Recent 6‐Month Period
Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
$27.3$13.2
$8.9$6.5
$5.7$5.5$5.0$4.7$4.4$4.0
California
New York
Texas
Florida
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Ohio
New Jersey
Minnesota
Georgia
Top 10 States New/Renewed Volume Apr 2017 to Sep 2017 Bilateral Loans
$25.9$15.0
$8.7$6.5$6.3
$4.6$3.5$3.2$3.1$2.7
Finance & Insurance
Wholesale Trade
Manufacturing (Machinery, Elec)
Health Care & Social Assistance
Retail Trade (Motor, Elec, Bldg)
Professional, Scientific, & Tech
Other Services
Manufacturing (Wood, Chem)
Accommodation & Food Services Agriculture
Top 10 C&I Industries New/Renewed Volume Apr 2017 to Sep 2017 Bilateral Loans
220211224
185191
228270
226258
279235
Finance & Insurance
Wholesale Trade Manufacturing (Machinery, Elec)
Health Care & Social Assistance Retail Trade (Motor, Elec, Bldg)
Professional, Scientific, & Tech Other Services
Manufacturing (Wood, Chem)
Accommodation & Food Services Agriculture
Top 10 C&I Industries New/Renewed Volume - LIBOR-Equ. Spread Bilateral Loans
All Industries Avg
234237
269260
212228237243
225176
208
CaliforniaNew York
Texas
Florida
North Carolina
PennsylvaniaOhio
New Jersey
Minnesota
Georgia
Top 10 States New/Renewed Volume - LIBOR-Equ. Spread Bilateral Loans
Nat'l Avg
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100
150
200
250
300
350
400New Renewed 10-Year Treasuries
LIBOR-Equivalent Spreads (in BPS) TrendParticipations
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20New Renewed
New and Renewed Loan Volume ($ Billions)Participations
New Participation Volume Down from Last Year’s LevelsSpreads on New Participations Continued to Trend Downwards
Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
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Volume vs. Spread Pricing: New/Renewed ParticipationsState and Industry Detail for the Most Recent 6‐Month Period
Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
$8.9$6.5$6.3
$3.4$2.9$2.8$2.6$2.5$2.0$1.9
Texas
California
New York
Pennsylvania
Florida
Georgia
Ohio
Massachusetts
Illinois
New Jersey
Top 10 States New/Renewed Volume Apr 2017 to Sep 2017 Participations
$10.0$5.4
$4.5$4.4$3.7$3.3$2.8$2.4$2.2$2.1
Finance & Insurance
Manufacturing (Machinery, Elec)
Wholesale Trade
Information
Mining, Oil & Gas
Professional, Scientific, & Tech
Manufacturing (Wood, Chem)
Manufacturing (Food, Bev, Apparel)
Accommodation & Food Services
Retail Trade (Motor, Elec, Bldg)
Top 10 C&I Industries New/Renewed Volume Apr 2017 to Sep 2017 Participations
268219
184181
232209
184162
195224
254
Texas
California
New YorkPennsylvania
Florida
Georgia
OhioMassachusetts
Illinois
New Jersey
Top 10 States New/Renewed Volume - LIBOR-Equ. Spread Participations
Nat'l Avg
193197188183
330209
257171
153232
166
Finance & Insurance
Manufacturing (Machinery, Elec) Wholesale Trade
Information
Mining, Oil & Gas
Professional, Scientific, & Tech Manufacturing (Wood, Chem)
Manufacturing (Food, Bev, Apparel)
Accommodation & Food Services Retail Trade (Motor, Elec, Bldg)
Top 10 C&I Industries New/Renewed Volume - LIBOR-Equ. Spread Participations
All Industries Avg
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.27November 2, 2017
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Total Annualized Fee Performance in September Down Slightly from Same Period a Year Ago
Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
05
1015202530354045
2016* 2017*
Total Fees Upfront Fees
Total Fees Paid (in BPS) - Bilateral LoansYear-over-Year Comparison
* Based on Comparative Jan-Sep Periods
05
1015202530354045
East
ern
Mid
wes
t
Mid
dle
Atla
ntic
Nor
thea
st
Sout
h
Sout
hwes
t
Wes
t
Wes
tern
Mid
wes
t2016* 2017*
Total Upfront Fees Paid (in BPS) Year-over-Year Comparison - By Geographic Region
* Based on Comparative Jan-Sep Periods
05
1015202530354045
Min
ing
Info
rmat
ion
Fina
nce
&In
sura
nce
Adm
in, S
uppo
rt,
Was
te M
gmt,
& R
emed
iatio
nPr
ofes
sion
al,
Scie
ntifi
c,&
Tec
h
Hea
lth C
are
and
Soci
al A
ssis
tanc
e
Art
s, E
nter
tain
men
t,an
d R
ecre
atio
n
Ret
ail T
rade
(Mot
or, E
lec,
Bld
g)
Educ
atio
nal
Serv
ices
Publ
icA
dmin
istr
atio
n
2016* 2017*
Total Upfront Fees Paid (in BPS) Year-over-Year Comparison - By Industry
* Based on Comparative Jan-Sep Periods
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.28November 2, 2017
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Balance Growth: Industry Drivers by Geographic Region
The AFS Pricing Dashboard enables Users to pinpoint industry loan growth drivers across their unique geographic footprints.
Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
6.2%
1.2% 1.7%1.9%
8.2%
1.3%
Finance& Insurance
WholesaleTrade
Health Care& SocialAssistance
Bilateral Participations
10.1%
2.4%1.2%
8.9%
‐0.5%
5.9%
Finance& Insurance
Health Care& SocialAssistance
Professional,Scientific,& Tech
Bilateral Participations
2.8% 1.4% 2.8%3.2%
27.1%
1.0%
Finance& Insurance
Admin,Support,
Waste Mgmt
OtherServices
Bilateral Participations
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.29November 2, 2017
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Balance Growth: Industry Drivers by Geographic Region
Note: Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Source: AFS Pricing Dashboard – September 2017
1.9%1.0% 1.2%
3.4%
9.3%
‐0.9%Health Care& SocialAssistance
Manufacturing(Machinery,
Elec)
Real Estate
Bilateral Participations
9.6%
9.7%
5.4%
‐2.9%
2.9%4.3%
Finance& Insurance
Manufacturing(Machinery,
Elec)
Retail Trade(Hobby,General)
Bilateral Participations
0.7%
‐0.4%
5.9%
‐0.6%
19.8%
6.9%
Real Estate WholesaleTrade
Admin,Support,
Waste Mgmt
Bilateral Participations
2.0%9.2%
0.3%
44.0%
15.4%
16.5%
Real Estate Retail Trade(Hobby,General)
Agriculture
Bilateral Participations
Special Topic:Optimizing Risk and Return Using the
AFS Pricing Dashboard
November 2, 2017©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.31November 2, 2017
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How Do We Define “Best”?
Balance Growth Percent change in outstandings. Is there positive growth momentum in the industry? Are banks getting their fair share of wallet?
The three criteria listed below are used to evaluate industry performance in the database. Industries in the top quartile for all three categories represent sustainable growth opportunities for banks.
Pricing Is pricing above average for the industry, or is the sector showing signs of pricing compression?
Credit Risk Are default levels and projections trending downward for the industry?
Market Trend
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.32November 2, 2017
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Risk‐Return Profiles Vary Widely Across the Industry Spectrum
The Spread Per Unit of Risk is equal to the Weighted Average LIBOR‐Equivalent Spread divided by the Weighted Average Risk Rating.
61
51 51 49 49 49 48 47 47 46 46 46 45 45 44 44 44 43 42
3328
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Spread
Per Unit o
f Risk
Risk and Return by IndustryC&I Loans ‐ Sep 2017
Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Risk ratings based on the RMA 10‐point obligor risk rating scale.
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.33November 2, 2017
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Balance Growth by Industry
Participations fueled balance growth in the Retail Trade industry, whereas balance growth in the Finance & Insurance sector was driven predominantly by bilateral loans.
‐1.0%
‐4.2%
2.8%4.2%
‐6.5%
‐10.0%
‐7.5%
‐5.0%
‐2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
AllIndustries
Manufacturing RetailTrade
Finance&
Insurance
Professional,Scientific,& Tech
Percen
t Growth
Growth in Outstandings ‐ Dec 2016 to Sep 2017C&I Loans
1.4%
‐0.8%
1.2%
9.5%
‐4.9%‐5.5%
‐7.8%
6.6%
‐3.2%
‐8.7%‐10.0%
‐7.5%
‐5.0%
‐2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
10.0%
AllIndustries
Manufacturing RetailTrade
Finance&
Insurance
Professional,Scientific,& Tech
Percen
t Growth
Bilateral Loans
Participations
Growth in Outstandings ‐ Dec 2016 to Sep 2017C&I Loans
Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.34November 2, 2017
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Subsector Composition:Best Industries in Terms of Risk‐Return
Funds, Trusts, & Financial Vehicles
Securities & Commodity Contracts
Credit Intermediation
Other Finance & Insurance
Distribution of Outstandings ‐ Sep 2017Finance & Insurance
Computer Systems Design
Management & Technical Consulting
Architectural & Engineering
Services
Scientific R&D
Accounting & Tax
Preparation
Other Professional Services
Distribution of Outstandings ‐ Sep 2017Professional Services
Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.35November 2, 2017
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Subsector Composition: Below‐Average Industries for Risk‐Return
Food Manufacturing
Computer & Electronic
Manufacturing
Chemical Manufacturing
Fabricated Metal
ManufacturingMachinery Manufacturing
Other Manufacturing
Distribution of Outstandings ‐ Sep 2017Manufacturing
Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers
Gasoline Stations
Food & Beverage Stores
General Merchandise
Stores
Clothing Stores
Other Retail Trade
Distribution of Outstandings ‐ Sep 2017Retail Trade
Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.36November 2, 2017
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Balance Growth by Subsector:Participations Drive Growth in Top Subsectors
For most of the top subsectors for balance growth, such as Food Manufacturing, participations outpaced bilateral loans in 2017.
‐1.0%
6.3%
0.7%
15.4% 16.3%
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
All Industries
FoodManufacturing
Motor Vehicle& PartsDealers Credit
Intermediation
Scientific R&D
Percen
t Growth
Growth in Outstandings ‐ Dec 2016 to Sep 2017C&I Loans
1.4% 1.6% 1.4%
12.9%
7.7%
‐5.5%
13.7%
‐3.3%
18.9%
23.4%
‐10.0%
‐5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
All Industries
FoodManufacturing
Motor Vehicle& PartsDealers Credit
Intermediation
Scientific R&D
Percen
t Growth
Bilateral Loans
Participations
Growth in Outstandings ‐ Dec 2016 to Sep 2017C&I Loans
Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.37November 2, 2017
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Risk Rating Distribution by Industry
Compared with the risk profile for the Finance & Insurance industry, Professional Services is skewed more towards the riskier end of the standardized obligor risk rating scale, with a greater percentage of outstandings focused in risk band 06 (Low Pass).
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
RR 03 RR 04 RR 05 RR 06 RR 07
% of O
utstan
dings
Distribution of Outstandings ‐ Sep 2017By Risk Rating
All C&I Industries Manufacturing Retail Trade Finance & Insurance Professional Services
Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).Risk ratings based on the RMA 10‐point obligor risk rating scale.
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Risk and Return by Micro Geographic Markets: Finance & Insurance
Atlanta, GA
Chicago, IL
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NYSan Francisco, CA
Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).The Spread Per Unit of Risk is equal to the Weighted Average LIBOR‐Equivalent Spread divided by the Weighted Average Risk Rating.Risk ratings based on the RMA 10‐point obligor risk rating scale.
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Nat'l Avg NewYork(NY)
Atlanta(GA)
Chicago(IL)
LosAngeles(CA)
SanFrancisco
(CA)Spread
Per Unit o
f Risk
Finance & Insurance
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Risk and Return by Micro Geographic Markets: Finance & Insurance – Bilateral Loans vs. Participations
Atlanta, GA
Chicago, IL
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NYSan Francisco, CA
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Nat'l Avg NewYork(NY)
Atlanta(GA)
Chicago(IL)
LosAngeles(CA)
SanFrancisco
(CA)Spread
Per Unit o
f Risk
Finance & Insurance Bilateral Loans
Participations
Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).The Spread Per Unit of Risk is equal to the Weighted Average LIBOR‐Equivalent Spread divided by the Weighted Average Risk Rating.Risk ratings based on the RMA 10‐point obligor risk rating scale.
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Risk and Return by Micro Geographic Markets: Professional Services
Boston, MA
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
Washington DC
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Nat'l Avg Boston(MA)
NewYork(NY)
NewYork(NJ)
WashingtonDC(VA)
LosAngeles(CA)
Spread
Per Unit o
f Risk
Professional Services
Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).The Spread Per Unit of Risk is equal to the Weighted Average LIBOR‐Equivalent Spread divided by the Weighted Average Risk Rating.Risk ratings based on the RMA 10‐point obligor risk rating scale.
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.41November 2, 2017
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Risk and Return by Micro Geographic Markets: Professional Services – Bilateral Loans vs. Participations
Boston, MA
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
Washington DC
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Nat'l Avg Boston(MA)
NewYork(NY)
NewYork(NJ)
WashingtonDC(VA)
LosAngeles(CA)
Spread
Per Unit o
f Risk
Professional Services Bilateral LoansParticipations
Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).The Spread Per Unit of Risk is equal to the Weighted Average LIBOR‐Equivalent Spread divided by the Weighted Average Risk Rating.Risk ratings based on the RMA 10‐point obligor risk rating scale.
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Risk and Return by Micro Geographic Markets: Manufacturing
Atlanta, GA
Boston, MA
Chicago, IL
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Nat'l Avg Boston(MA)
NewYork(NY)
Atlanta(GA)
Chicago(IL)
LosAngeles(CA)
Spread
Per Unit o
f Risk
Manufacturing
Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).The Spread Per Unit of Risk is equal to the Weighted Average LIBOR‐Equivalent Spread divided by the Weighted Average Risk Rating.Risk ratings based on the RMA 10‐point obligor risk rating scale.
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.43November 2, 2017
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Risk and Return by Micro Geographic Markets: Manufacturing – Bilateral Loans vs. Participations
Atlanta, GA
Boston, MA
Chicago, IL
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Nat'l Avg Boston(MA)
NewYork(NY)
Atlanta(GA)
Chicago(IL)
LosAngeles(CA)
Spread
Per Unit o
f Risk
Manufacturing Bilateral LoansParticipations
Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).The Spread Per Unit of Risk is equal to the Weighted Average LIBOR‐Equivalent Spread divided by the Weighted Average Risk Rating.Risk ratings based on the RMA 10‐point obligor risk rating scale.
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.44November 2, 2017
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Risk and Return by Micro Geographic Markets: Retail Trade
Atlanta, GADallas, TX
Houston, TX
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Nat'l Avg NewYork(NY)
Atlanta(GA)
Dallas(TX)
Houston(TX)
LosAngeles(CA)
Spread
Per Unit o
f Risk
Retail Trade
Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).The Spread Per Unit of Risk is equal to the Weighted Average LIBOR‐Equivalent Spread divided by the Weighted Average Risk Rating.Risk ratings based on the RMA 10‐point obligor risk rating scale.
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.45November 2, 2017
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Risk and Return by Micro Geographic Markets: Retail Trade – Bilateral Loans vs. Participations
Atlanta, GADallas, TX
Houston, TX
Los Angeles, CA
New York, NY
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Nat'l Avg NewYork(NY)
Atlanta(GA)
Dallas(TX)
Houston(TX)
LosAngeles(CA)
Spread
Per Unit o
f Risk
Retail Trade Bilateral LoansParticipations
Geographic data refers to the location of the borrower, not necessarily the bank booking the loan. Industry categories based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).The Spread Per Unit of Risk is equal to the Weighted Average LIBOR‐Equivalent Spread divided by the Weighted Average Risk Rating.Risk ratings based on the RMA 10‐point obligor risk rating scale.
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.46November 2, 2017
Achieving Success through Execution
Thank You for Joining Us Today
A recording and a copy of this presentation will be made available by the end of this week.
Questions?
Doug Skinner+1 484‐875‐1562
dskinner@afsvision.com
Don Dougherty+1 484‐875‐1334
ddougherty@afsvision.com
Jeremy Chalson+1 484‐875‐1546
jchalson@afsvision.com
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Stay Connected with AFS
Stay on top of all the latest news and happenings with AFS. Follow us and stay connected.
Automated Financial Systems, Inc.
@afs_vision
AFS@AFSVision
Additional Features:Delivering Market Data
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary. November 2, 2017
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Delivering Market Data: Simple Pricing Grid
AFS will work with the Bank to define the appropriate segmentation criteria and level of granularity. This can be used for integration into other systems at the Bank.
Min/Median/Max/Avg of Banks in Market
Segmentation Criteria
Sample data for illustration purposes only.
Region Collateral Pricing Index Product
New & RenewedFlag
Term Deal Size EL Number of Observations
Bank Minimum LIBOR
Equivalent Spread
Bank Medium LIBOR
Equivalent Spread
Bank Maximum LIBOR
Equivalent Spread
Market AverageLIBOR
Equivalent Spread
South Secured Re Prime Line of Credit New <= 1 Year $100,000‐$249,999 4.0% < 8.0% 42 3.58 3.70 4.01 3.70
Eastern Midwest Secured No Fixed Line of Credit New 2‐5 Years $5,000,000‐$24,999,999 4.0% < 8.0% 20 2.03 2.03 2.03 2.03
South Secured No Prime Line of Credit New 5‐10 Years <$100,000 4.0% < 8.0% 18 5.64 5.64 5.64 5.64
Eastern Midwest Secured No Fixed Line of Credit New 1‐2 Years $5,000,000‐$24,999,999 4.0% < 8.0% 16 2.16 2.16 2.16 2.16
Eastern Midwest Secured No Fixed Line of Credit New 2‐5 Years <$100,000 4.0% < 8.0% 15 2.09 2.09 2.09 2.09
Eastern Midwest Unsecured LIBOR Line of Credit New <= 1 Year $50,000,000+ 4.0% < 8.0% 14 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
South Secured No Fixed Term/Time Loan New 5‐10 Years <$100,000 4.0% < 8.0% 14 4.25 5.90 7.55 4.30
Middle Atlantic Secured Re Prime Line of Credit New <= 1 Year $100,000‐$249,999 4.0% < 8.0% 9 3.77 3.77 3.77 3.77
Eastern Midwest Secured No Fixed Line of Credit New <= 1 Year $5,000,000‐$24,999,999 4.0% < 8.0% 7 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
South Secured No Fixed Term/Time Loan New 2‐5 Years <$100,000 4.0% < 8.0% 7 4.03 4.03 4.03 4.03
South Secured No Prime Line of Credit New Unknown/ <$100,000 4.0% < 8.0% 7 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85
Middle Atlantic Secured Re LIBOR Term/Time Loan New <= 1 Year $1,000,000‐$4,999,999 4.0% < 8.0% 6 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
South Secured Re LIBOR Term/Time Loan New 1‐2 Years $5,000,000‐$24,999,999 4.0% < 8.0% 6 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Middle Atlantic Secured No Prime Line of Credit New 5‐10 Years <$100,000 4.0% < 8.0% 5 5.13 5.13 5.13 5.13
Western Midwest Secured Re Prime Line of Credit New <= 1 Year $250,000‐$499,999 4.0% < 8.0% 5 2.93 2.93 2.93 2.93
©2017 Automated Financial Systems, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential & Proprietary.50November 2, 2017
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Upcoming Renewals Report
PDB View – Provides the Upcoming Renewals Report. Business Purpose – Provides actionable data to support pricing decisions on loans coming up for renewal.
Key Insights – Provides a total market equivalent price for each obligation based on shared loan characteristics. Allows the Bank to maximize the revenue on each deal while still maintaining its competitive advantage. From an accountability perspective, shows how the pricing of each individual obligation compares to external standards.
For the borrower circled below, the Bank can reprice at more advantageous terms while still undercutting its competitors.
Sample data for illustration purposes only.
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Pricing Performance: Recent New and Renewed Deals
For enforcement of policy, reporting on all New and recently Renewed deals provides an audit of pricing exceptions.
Sample data for illustration purposes only.