Behind the

Page:

Text Analysis

Uncovers Trends

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Jay Gendron, SimIS Inc.

www.linkedin.com/in/jaygendron

Hampton Roads, Virginia April 15-17, 2014

Consider…

The Plan

• Understand the Problem (Use Case)

• Look at Past Predictions. Met?

• Analysis – speed boat, not SCUBA dive

• Results of Analysis

• Trends in Commercial Technologies and

Gamification

Problem (NATO Use Case)

Management Questions

• What are trends in industry and gamification?

• Have we met the predictions?

• How do we know this?

2003

Small Biz…

2008

Predictions

2013

Now What

Predictions

1. Highly realistic scenarios would become affordable those outside military training

2. Training games would be become more realistic than those for entertainment

3. New types of training scenarios would drive new types of training technologies

4. Joint missions would drive interoperable solutions

5. End-user experience would command greater emphasis in development processes

Analysis Plan

Workshop Date and Location Page Count

MSG-074 May 18 – 20, 2009; Farnborough, UK 12

MSG-078 September 22-24, 2009; Suffolk, US 4

MSG-093 November 2-4, 2010; Rome, IT 12

MSG-108 October 25-28, 2011; Farnborough, UK 24

MSG-113 April 16-18, 2012; Genoa, IT 31

MSG-114 November 13-15, 2013; Kjeller, NO 35

MSG-130 October 9-11, 2013; La Spezia, IT 39

Topic Model LSA/SVD

Cluster Analysis

Topic Definition

Topic Traces

Topic Model

ID Importance Topic Keys

A 1.34305

mr nato game technologies learning provided development dr system immersive buck virtual presentation education games examples commercial technical world

2 0.04586

italy genoa immersive information university bruzzone fear diptem scorm thurkettle lms april plans web united procedural miss busetta belief

3 0.09772

maritime navy things data people domain includes noted naval threats series number effects platform cmre knowledge team large case

Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA)

Singular Value Decomposition

Clustering

Topic “Gut Check” from Clusters

Topic Definition – People Power

Topic ID: 1 Topic: Immersive Learning Environments for Education and Training

Topic Keys:

italy,genoa,immersive,information,university,bruzzone,fear,diptem,scorm,thurkettle,lms,april,plans,web,united,p

rocedural,miss,busetta,belief

Topic ID: 2 Topic: Assessing Pedagogical Effectiveness of Maritime Training

Topic Keys:

maritime,navy,things,data,people,domain,includes,noted,naval,threats,series,number,effects,platform,cmre,know

ledge,team,large,case

Topic ID: 5 Topic: Social Media Dimension of Gamification Topic Keys:

gave,worlds,garcia,learners,aims,free,simulation,gamification,crowd,johnny,november,digital,cdr,social,traditio

nal,technology,supervision,unlimited,coffee

Topic ID: 6 Topic: Future of Commercially Available Games in Military

Applications

Topic Keys:

mosbe,bluefor,dive,civilian,lto,big,test,actual,fit,subject,simon,sensurprys,summation,versus,programme,strategi

es,back,belief,insurgency

Topic ID: 8 Topic: Human Dimension of Serious Games Implementation

Topic Keys:

figure,norway,transmedia,guest,server,ffi,players,massively,mmo,illusion,persistence,member,social,diablo,tank

s,motivation,observer,sondergaard,raybourn

Topic ID: 9 Topic: Technical Dimension of Serious Games Implementation

Topic Keys:

interfaces,topic,fawkes,morrison,common,chair,cloud,security,mod,commercial,devices,ltc,garcia,architecture,t

hurkettle,graphics,processes,talking,physical

Topic ID: 11 Topic: Virtual Worlds in Evolution of Immersive Training

Topic Keys:

virtual,world,worlds,presented,language,coe,roman,act,vbs,overview,called,required,paul,culture,investigation,t

hurkettle,framework,center,spruill

Topic ID: 13 Topic: Open Source and User-Created Content

Topic Keys:

day,applications,tracing,ray,workshop,proprietary,realism,worlds,licensing,mod,access,attendance,simply,alterna

tive,cojack,insurgent,product,offer,investment

Topic ID: 14 Topic: Immersive Military Training

Topic Keys:

vbs,open,game,military,application,presentation,cots,world,real,uk,ai,time,source,end,based,make,qinetiq,realist

ic,products

Topic ID: 21 Topic: Market Trends for Procurement of Military Gaming

Technologies

Topic Keys:

user,source,terrains,techniques,bistudio,wg,xpi,learning,scenarios,potential,main,engine,fact,found,benefit,norw

ay,roughsedge,aos,ways

Topic ID: 23 Topic: Selection Criteria in Procuring Military Gaming Technologies

Topic Keys:

companies,esp,afmp,noted,force,player,builder,considered,french,op,community,visual,produced,study,briefed,c

ommand,detail,tr,careful

Topics Overlaid on Cluster

Finding 1: Scenario realism continues to improve and

shows an association with the level of discussion of social

media and the human dimension during workshops

Recommendation: Future events should strive to balance discussions on technological and human dimension topics by considering different use cases at each event.

Finding 2: Discussions focused on solving new

requirements tend to lag the introduction of the topic by

three workshop events.

Recommendation: Workshop planners should use an outreach plan to align topic introduction with desired solution timeframe and assume an 18-month lead-time for a trend to emerge.

Finding 3: Discussions focused on user experience have

emerged within the workshop reports and persist in current

discourse

Recommendation: Process topics seem a likely evolution from technology to people to process. Harness user experience discourse to highlight process-oriented games and training requirements.

Finding 4: Assessment of training effectiveness, return on

investment, and time efficiencies recently emerged as a

workshop topic and this will likely continue

Recommendation: Assessment includes topics ranging from pedagogy to return on investment to time savings. Extend calls for papers on these topics for future workshops.

Qualitative Trends

Technology Industry Government Massive Open

Online Course (MOOC)

Mobile Learning Technologies

Alternate Reality Games (ARG)

Networks and

Architectures

Open Source or Proprietary

Understanding the Needs of Government eLearning

MOOCs as a Disrupting Technology

Standards for Gaming

Collaboration Architecture for

MOOCs Augmented Reality

and Virtual Worlds

Summary

• Management

questions on ROI

• Predictions stated

• Application of

humanities

approaches

• Supported ROI and

predictions

Consider…

• Text Analysis

combined with

clustering can see the

unseeable

• Models may also

support predictive

analysis

• All work done with

open-source tools