Post on 11-Apr-2017
What’s The Deal?
Labor and Employee Relations in the Trump Era
SHRM Legislative and Legal Conference | March 2017Phillip B. Wilson, Labor Relations Institute, Inc.
Michael VanDervort, CUE Inc.
LOW ER/LR RISKAND
LOW PR RISK
Should I Sleep at Night?Now that the NLRB, Congress and DOL are in Republican control, how concerned should I be about labor issues?
Head to Starbucks.Grab a coffee. Take good notes.
Grab a flask.
LOW ER/LR RISKOR
LOW PR RISK
MED ER/LR RISKAND
MED PR RISK
HIGH ER/LR RISK OR
HIGH PR RISK
HIGH ER/LR RISK AND
HIGH PR RISK
ER = Employee RelationsPR = Public RelationsLR = Labor Relations
Union Membership At All-Time Low
• Total membership fell from 11.1% in 2015 to 10.7% in 2016, and private-sector membership fell from 6.7% to 6.4%
• Many union members do not align with their union’s political bent
• Trump flipped “Blue Wall” States PA, OH, WI, MI
• Exit polls: Trump won 43% of union households (Clinton only 51%)
• Trump 4% better than Romney 2012
• Clinton 9% worse than Obama 2012
Kansas
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Michigan
Iowa
Texas
Arkansas
Lousiana
Alabama
Tennessee
S. Carolina
N. Carolina
Virginia
Missouri
IndianaOhio
Kentucky
Pennsylvania
40%Trump47.6 47.3
43%Trump47.9 46.9
43%Trump
*48.8 47.6
54%Trump52.1 43.5
Source: CNN Exit polls*NOTE: National average - No exit poll data on union households in PA
©2017 Labor Relations Institute, LRIonline.com
How Union Members Elected Trump
Is the Glass Half-Full…
• NLRB and DOL will roll back Obama era regulations, decisions
• Administration will "dismantle" bureaucracy, reduce size and scope of DOL, NLRB
• Traditional left supporters (labor unions, academics) overwhelmed by populism
• Right to work, Janus or Rauner, etc. deal structural death blows to unions
Or Half-Empty?• Administration so disorganized,
crisis prone – no focus on NLRB, DOL
• Urge to deal with unions on infrastructure, immigration, trade, creates pressure to "play nice"
• Backlash against administration builds support for unions, academics (left-wing populism)
• Mid-term elections dismantle Trump "coalition" – stops any progress
Does Trump Deserve Credit For Saving Jobs?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/business/economy/trump-jobs.html?ref=business
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/business/economy/trump-jobs.html?ref=business
Does Trump Deserve Credit For Saving Jobs?
• Silicon Valley companies support suit against travel ban (or pause)
• Immigration Policy Raises Concerns
• ACA Repeal or Replace Uncertainty
Trump’s early moves trigger business backlash
What worries me? How NOT worried this guy is.
• Watch this video http://www.foxbusiness.com/features/2017/03/01/afl-cio-president-trumka-unions-will-help-trump-rewrite-rules-economy.html
What the heck is populism?
• Political doctrine based on power of “common people” versus political and economic “elites”
• Can be right, left or centrist (Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, Occupy Wall Street)
• Typically democratic (US Revolution, French Revolution, Joseph McCarthy)
• Sometimes Authoritarian, Facist, or Socialist (Hugo Chavez, Xi Jinping)
1. Think big2. Maximize the options3. Use your leverage4. Get the word out5. Fight back6. Deliver the goods7. Contain costs, protect downside8. Have Fun
https://qz.com/894419/trumps-border-wall-is-a-negotiating-tactic-straight-out-of-his-book-the-art-of-the-deal/
“I keep a lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising they seem at first.”Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal
Negotiator In ChiefPresident Trump Already Taught Us How He'll Do Deals
❤ Businesses Unions (AFSCME, SEIU, 🚫NEA) Environmentalists🚫Rally Point for Left (anti-Populist)
Anti-Regulation Trump
1
🚫 Most Businesses Most Unions🚫 World Community🚫 Immigrants🚫 ❤ Trump’s Base
“Build a Wall” Trump
❤ Manufacturers 🚫
Retailers/Consumers ❤ UnionsBig PR Risks
Trade Deal Trump
2
❤ Construction/Energy Co’s ❤ Construction Unions Service Unions🚫 Environmentalists🚫 Deficit Hawks🚫
Infrastructure Trump
4
Which Trump(s) Will We Get? 3
Puzder Takedown• Unions targeted from the
start• Fast food billionaire (not very
populist)• Anti-regulation (minimum
wage, overtime)• Horrible vetting• Gave left (especially
Elizabeth Warren) easy target
Puzder: Down in Flames. Here's How Acosta Stacks Up.
• The Anti-Puzder• Hearing March 15• First Hispanic on
Trump’s Cabinet• Unions support him• Sided with unions 67%
of time sided when at NLRB
• Also worked at DOJ• May be more accepting
of workplace regulation
DOL Changes to expect
• Blacklisting = DOA• Persuader rule – dead• Overtime rule – probably
dead• Decreased funding for
enforcement, outreach• Likely end of “strategic
enforcement”• Minimum wage? Paid leave?
Maybe…
The NLRB
Miscimarra – Term Expires December 17, 2017
McFerrin – Term Expires December 16, 2019
Pearce – Term Expires August 27, 2018
Griffin (GC) – Term Expires November 4, 2017
Potential nominees for 2 open seats
Doug SeatonSeaton, Peters, Revnew
Marvin KaplanOSHA
Bill EmanuelLittler
• Quickie Election Rule
• Specialty Healthcare (Community of Interest Standard)
• Joint Employer• Email• Employee
Handbooks• Privacy –
Confidentiality• Class Action
Waiver
• Graduate Assistant, College Student Athlete Jurisdiction
• Management Rights
• Successor Employer
• Definition of Supervisor
• Replacement Workers
• Dues Obligation Post-Contract
Key Issues New NLRB Will Target
Next WE Apex2023
PendulumLast ME Apex 1983
Next ME Apex 2063
I’m OK, You’re Not OK(Witch Hunt)
I’m OK, You’re OK(Rainbows and Unicorns)
I’m Not OK, You’re not OK(We’re Both Broken)
I’m Not OK, You’re OK(Hero Worship)
Assessing your risk profile
LOWER RISK• Lower external union vulnerability (geography, industry, competitors)
• Lower internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.)
• Lower risk of PR pressure (privately held, low public profile, customers don't care, community doesn’t care)
Your risk profile is determined by your internal and external vulnerability to union activity AND your overall sensitivity to negative PR events.
MEDIUM RISK• Higher risk of union activity (geography, industry, competitors); OR
• Higher internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.); AND
• Lower risk of PR pressure (privately held, low public profile, customers don't care, community doesn’t care)
MEDIUM RISK• Lower risk of union activity (geography, industry, competitors)
• Lower internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.)
• Higher risk of PR pressure (publicly held, high public profile, customers care, community cares)
HIGHER RISK• Higher risk of union activity (geography, industry, competitors); AND
• Higher internal union vulnerability (engagement, treatment, etc.); AND
• Higher risk of PR pressure (publicly held, high public profile, customers care, community cares)
LaborEmployment
Risk
PR Risk
Lower
Higher
HigherLower
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Daily Actions MatterWork HR and managers can (and should) do daily!
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101
Michael VanDervortExecutive DirectorCUE Inc. – an organization for positive employee relations863-370-3560Mvandervort@cueinc.com
Website:CUEinc.comTwitter: @MikeVanDervortLinkedIn:LinkedIn.com/in/michaelvandervort
Phillip WilsonPresident
Labor Relations InstituteFounder
Approachable Leadership800-888-9115
pbwilson@LRIonline.com
Websites:LRIonline.com
ApproachableLeadership.comTwitter:
@ApproachableLDRLinkedIn:
Linkedin.com/in/pbwilson
Keep in Touch!