“What promises us a project of the year 2017?

Dr. Gubad Ibadoghlu,

Senior Analyst

Oil and non-oil GDP in 2016

monthly, in mln. manats

2 695,8 2 572,9

2 971,7

2 698,3 2 867,7

3 790,8

3 222,9

4 161,8

1 315,4 1 304,6

1 728,3 1 580,9

1 777,2 1 698,7

1 897,4 1 743,4

1 000,0

1 500,0

2 000,0

2 500,0

3 000,0

3 500,0

4 000,0

4 500,0

Yanvar Fevral Mart Aprel May İyun İyul Avqust

Foreign trade indicators in 8 months

442,81

537,07

846,05 768,26 737,26 715,79 710,03

782,73

657,08 566,39 557,15

669,19 600,16

771,49 768,33

-300,0

-200,0

-100,0

0,0

100,0

200,0

300,0

400,0

500,0

0,00

200,00

400,00

600,00

800,00

1000,00

1200,00

Yanvar Fevral Mart Aprel May İyun İyul Avqust

İdxal İxrac Saldo

Composition of GDP in 2016

6,4

36.2

9.9

39.6

7.8

Kənd, meşə və balıqçılıq təsərrüfatı

Sənaye

Tikinti

Xidmətlərin istehsalı

Məhsula və idxala xalis vergilər

Trend of state budget in l0 years

Years Revenue of state budget (mln.manats)

Expenditure of state budget (mln.manats)

Budget deficit(-), (mln.manats)

2008 10762,7 10774,2 -11,5

2009 10325,9 10503,9 -178,0

2010 11403,0 11766,0 -363,0

2011 15700,7 15397,5 +303,2

2012 17038 17672,0 -634,0

2013 19159,0 19850,0 -691,1

2014 18 400,6 18 709,0 -308,4

2015 17 497, 9 17784,5 -286,6

2016 (forecast) 16822,0 18495,0 -1673,0

2017 (forecast) 15955 16600 -645,0

Average 15306 15765

Transfert from SOFAZ, mln. manat

Years Transfer from

SOFAZ

The share of SOFAZ’s

transfer in the total

revenues of budget, %

The share of SOFAZ’s

transfer in the GDP, %

2003 100,0 8,2 1,3

2004 130,0 8,8 1,5

2005 150,0 7,2 1,2

2006 585,0 15,1 3,2

2007 585,0 9,7 2,1

2008 3800,0 35,3 9,5

2009 4915,0 47,6 14,2

2010 5915,0 51,9 14,2

2011 9000,0 57,3 18,0

2012 9905,0 57,3 18,3

2013 11350,0 58,2 19,7

2014 9337,0 50,7 15,8

2015 8130,0 47,6 14,2

2016 (forecast) 7615,0 45,2 13,2

2017 (forecast) 6100,0 38,2 9,9

Transfert from SOFAZ, mln. manats

4915 5915

9000 9905

11350

9337

8130 7615

6100

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

65,8

68,8

73,8

73,1

73,1

66,0

58,4

54,8

49.2

34,2

31,2

26,2

26,9

26,9

34,0

41,6

45,2

50.8

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

State revenues by sectors

2014 2015 İndustry 3 107,50 2 857,50

Servic e 1 342,00 1 236,40

Construction 929,6 849,3

Communaication 317,1 351,2

Banks and insuramce

262,8 395,8

Transport 209,2 296,9

Agricultura 12,8 15,7

Others 431,2 442,7

Investment expenditure during the 2008-2017

Years Investment

expenditure,

mln.manats

The share of total

budget expenditure,

per cent

2008 4,292 39,8

2009 3,567 33,9

2010 4 ,147 35,2

2011 5,866 38,1

2012 5,753 32,5

2013 6,934 34,9

2014 6,278 33,5

2015 5,002 28,1

2016 (forecast) 3, 024 16,3

2017 (forecast) 2,521 15,1

Total 33,935 24,4

Expenditure each 100 manats during 2006-2015 years

33 manats 70 cent to

construction

8 manats 91 cent to

education

8 manats 39 cent

Social protection and defense

7 manats 63 cent to

Administrative

3 manats 55 cent

Health

State budget in crisis times

2015 fact

2016 Forecast

2017 Forecast

Parallel between the forecast 2016 and 2017

Discrepancy (+; -)

Per cent

Revenue 17498,0 16822,0 15955,0 -867,0 -5,2

Ependiture 17784,6 18495,0 16600,0 -1895,0 -10,2

Composition of budget revenues in 2017

Ministry of

Taxes

45% State Oil Fund

38%

State Customs

Committee

14%

Other revenues

3%

Each 100 manats coming from …

49 manats

20 cent

50 manats

80 cent

67 manats 30 cent

27 manats 20 cent

5 manats 50 cent

•Oil sector

• Non oil sector

• Ministry of taxes

• State Customs Committee

• State Property Committee and others.

Each 100 manats coming from …

25

AZN

• VAT

12,96 AZN

• Profit taxes from companies

7,3

AZN

•Income taxes from individuals

Composition of expenditures in state budget for 2017

9745,25213,0

1641,8

current expenditure capital expenditure service for state debts

58,7 %

31,18

9,9 %

Economic clarification of state budget for 2017

Composition of expenditure of state budget for 2017

Adminstrative 8%

Education 12% Science

1%

Health 5%

Millitary defence 18%

Social protection

and defence

14%

Construction 17%

Culture 2%

Agrarian sector 3%

Ecological 0%

Law enforesments 9%

Service for state bets

11%

Composition of education expenditure for 2017 budget

Composition of health expenditure for 2017 budget

Main message of state budger for 2017

1) There is no expertation for big scale privatiation. Revenues from privatized state enterprises and receipts from the lease of land projected 1 million more than compare with last year.

2) Reduced subsidies to the regions. Centralized expenditures for regulation of local revenues and expenditures will decrease more than 10 times from 774.9 mln. Manats in 2016 to 68.5 mln. Manats in 2017.

3) Reduced of investment expenditures.

Risk factors in state budget for 2017

Risk factors

Revenues

Price of oil Envoriment of non oil

sector

Expenditures

Currency of manats

• Thanks for your attention

• Questions