SERC Talks June 3, 2020 1

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How Do We Make Sure Future Cyber-Physical Systems Are Human Centered, and In Particular, Trustworthy?June 3, 2020 | 1:00 PM ETDr. Martin Törngren, Professor, Department of Machine Design (MMK), KTH Royal Institute of Technology

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy

Cyber-Physical Systems

3

Martin Törngren, Professormartint@kth.se; www.kth.se/profile/martint

Mechatronics and Embedded Control Systems, Machine Design, KTH - Royal Institute of Technology

• Sustainable Industry and Society – the IRIS initiative• Centers

Trustworthy Edge Computing Systems and Applications

KTH & industry competence network - www.ices.kth.se

The lecturer - Dr. Who?

• Background in Mechatronics and Embedded control systems• Professor at KTH in Embedded Control Systems 2002

• Autonomous CPS - architecting, safety and MBSE • Sabbaticals at UC Berkeley and Stevens Institute of Tech.• CPS roadmapping

4Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren

Human-centered Cyber-physical systems?

Elaborated from FE Bureau: www.financialexpress.com/education-2/what-will-shape-future-smart-cities-of-india-find-out-here/968678/

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 5

Millions of tons of CO2 emissionsfrom 1850 with projection

Outline

Towards Human-Centered Trustworthy CPS

4. Directions3. Complexity analysis

1. Automotive and Automated Vehicles

2. CPS generalization andimplications

5. Conclusions

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 6

Mechanics Mechatronics

XXXDriver

XEng

XXClutch

XXTrans

XXDiff

XXXXWheel

XXSteer

XXBrake

XXSusp

DriverEngClutchTransDiffWheelSteerBrakeSusp

X

PX+PPPX+PX+PPDriver

PX+PPPPPPPEng

PX+PX+PPPPClutch

PPX+PX+PPPPPTrans

PPX+PX+PPPPDiff

XX+PXXWheel

X+PPPPPX+PPPSteer

X+PPPPPX+PPPBrake

X+PPPPPX+PPPSusp

DriverEngClutchTransDiffWheelSteerBrakeSusp

Design structure matrices illustrating vehicle components and relations: P – Programmable relations. X – Possible change

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 7

10100011010011100101001110100011010011100101001110100011010011100

101001110100011010011100010011

Organizational complexity

Production/parameterization

ProjectManagement

Sensing,estimation

and controlIntegration tests

CAD, PDM

ECU/electronics

Quality

ArchitectureNetworking

CAN database

Diagnostics,Support tools

Safety

Maintenance,After-market

Vehicledynamics

Software

• Power• Propulsion• Thermal

Mechanical components

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 8

Transportation melting pot

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 9

Digital infrastructure and connectivity

Telecommunication: …3G, 4G, 5G, …Smart phones/padsWireless and wired communicationInternet and cloudIndustrial computingSmart devices and embedded systems

The world as a connected and

distributed system

Courtesy of Ericsson

www.energimyndigheten.se/tester/tester-a-o/elmatare-smarta

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 10

Edge Computing systems – with severalinterpretations

Cloud Computing

Embedded nodes Internet / MobileNetwork

Edge nodes

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 11

Drivers: - Real-time ”AI” augmentation (e.g. prediction, coordination)- Cost-efficiency, bandwidth and energy- Privacy

Autonomy: Basic functions

Observation LocalizationObject detection& classification

Planning and generation

Control

Steering Propulsion Braking

Energy managementVehicle dynamics

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 12

Unprecedented capabilities and complexity

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 13

Breaking new ground – generalized knowledge

ADI – ”Autonomous Driving Intelligence”

Illustration: Harry Campbell, IEEE Spectrumhttp://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/nxps-bluebox-bids-to-be-the-brains-of-your-car

By Veronica538 (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0) or GFDL (http://www.gnu.org/copyleft/fdl.html)], via Wikimedia Commons

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 14

What drives AV development?

Business MIT Tech Review:- Can We Put a Price on Autonomous Driving?

• Transport services: ~ Trillions of dollars!• Traffic accidents: 100’s of billions of dollars• Traffic efficiency, productivity and public health: - II -

The beginning of wisdom is to call things by their proper name– attributed to Confucius

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 15

1849 – Gold rush

Today: Billions poured in toget to the Trillions!

Key question:When will the Gold emerge?

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 16

Socio-technical impact

Automatedvehicle(s)

:

s

Societal aspects, ethics, values

Technology, methodology, standards

Research & education

Transportation systems

Desired propertiesLife-cycle operation

Legal frameworks

Business eco-systems &organizations

Human machine

Software engineeringElectronics and mechanical engineering

Robotics, Artificial intelligence & machine learningEmbedded and high performance computing

Safety, security and dependabilityPower and energy systems

Systems engineeringTowards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 17

Outline

Towards Human-Centered Trustworthy CPS

4. Directions3. Complexity analysis

1. Automotive and AVs 2. CPS generalization andimplications

5. Conclusions

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 19

Digitalization in a physical world- with concepts mirroring different perspectives

Edge/Fog (~2012)DevOps (2009)

Cyber-Physical Systems (2006) Internet of things (1999)

Ubiquitous computing (1988)Artificial Intelligence (1956)

Cybernetics (1948)Teleautomation (1926)

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 20

CPS etymology

cyber - the use of computers or computer networks [Merriam-Webster] – with many connotations; cyber-space, -security, ...

cyber – “coined” by Norbert Wiener in the 1940’s, from the Greek word “kubernetes” - "governance", referring to feedback systems!

Both interpretations make sense for CPS! • interactions and integration among “C” and “P” elements!• Involving sensing and/or control for “C” and “P” interactions• Humans as an additionally important element!

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 21

CPS characterization (from the CyPhERS project)

• Physical vs. Embedded/Edge/Cloud vs. Communication• Scale, Openness, Mobility• Capabilities, level of automation, hierarchy, decentralization• Role of humans - In-/Outside the Loop• Degree of life-cycle connectivity• Governance and Jurisdiction

• Single Domain vs. Cross Domain • CPSoS – multi-organizational

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 22

Cengarle M.V. and Törngren M., et al. Structuring of CPS Domain: Characteristics, trends, … associated with CPS. Deliverable D2.2, CyPhERS project, May 2014

Cyber-physical systems (~2006)

Integration of computation, networking and physicalprocesses where CPS range from minuscule (pace makers) to large-scale (e.g. national power-grid).

Not new but with• Improved and entirely new capabilities• Increasing integration across technologies, systems,

domains and life-cycle• Open society scale deployment• Business model evolution

Unprecedented opportunities and risks

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 23

CPS capabilities

Gather, store and process all kinds of dataAwareness and prediction, including “mind reading”Plan and make decisionsAffect and create physical as well as software systemsGenerate and control energyCollaborate - exchange information, visualization, AR/VRCapabilities as part of “loops” with various time and system perspectives (e.g. OODA, MAPE-K)

Reinforced by multiple progressing technological fronts Unprecedented opportunities and risks!

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 24

Snapshot of benefits and concerns/risks

How do we consume as much ofyour time and attention as possible?… dopamine hits (Sean Parker)

Air bags - 1968ABS - 1970

ESP - 1982AEB – 2012

”… the mere prescence of one’sown smartphone reducesavailable cognitive capacity”

Threats and risks

25

Deep fakes, inspection, Digital surveillance economies

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 25

Safety/Assurance cases

Safety case: “… a structured argument, supported by a body of evidence, that provides a compelling, comprehensible and valid case that a system is safe …” - NASA System Safety Handbook ver. 1 (2014)

Safety cases are non trivial even for current systems• Boeing 737 MCAS; Current level 3 systems in testing • Automation paradox will not go away!• Socio-technical!• Safety requires a constant struggle!

2626

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 26

Herbert Simon on industrial revolutions

• There is no single technology behind a revolution!• Technological revolutions are slow

• But the disruption can be hard to anticipate!• Digital platforms enable faster market launch• The first revolution (involving steam engines) took 150 years

to change society (6 generations)• We shape technological revolutions!!

– Social impact becomes tangible in the 2nd half

Amara’s law: We tend to overestimate impact in the short run, but underestimate in the long run

H. Simon: The steam engine and the computer

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 27

Several parallel gold rushes!

Strong market forces!Partly unregulated areas!

1200? IoT platforms

Automated driving/transportation services

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 28

Disruption and change

Fortune 500 top list changing more frequently• Since 2000, more than 50% of the companies have

disappeared due to the digitalization wave

http://www.internethistorypodcast.com/2016/07/inventor-of-the-first-digital-camera-steven-sasson/

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 29

Largest internet companies wikipedia, Jan 2020)

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 30

CPS – as representing a socio-technicalrevolution

Learning from previous technical revolutions- Time constants, multiple technologies, ”shaping”- Connected collaborating smarter electrified CPS CPSoS, - Data and service age- Strong economical drivers and disruption- Evolving technologies and business eco-systems- Changing behaviors, systemic and socio-technical effects- Complexity reflecting new capabilities and open environments

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 31

Outline

Towards Human-Centered Trustworthy CPS

4. Directions3. Complexity analysis

1. Automotive and AVs 2. CPS generalization andimplications

5. Conclusions

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 32

How can we handle the increasingcomplexity?

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_brain

Visualization of software and electronic functionalities in a truck (2013) Courtesy of Scania

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 33

Source: www.techiestuffs.com/trend-of-computer-aided-engineering-worldwide/

CAE support

The degree of difficulty in accurately predicting behavior over time

CPS complexity

facets

ORG. limitations

Consequences of complexity(on humans and projects):Difficulty to understandDifficulty to predict and trade-off EmergenceProject overruns (cost and time)Requirements not metResources & competences needed

Facets causing humans toperceive complexity

Environment

characteristics characteristics

CPS ORGs

Heterogeneity/diversitySize and computabilityUncertainty and changeDynamics and/or StructureIncidental/essential

Human memory capacityBounded rationality&biasesHumans: autonomous agentsCommunication barriersInformation capture OHInformation managementInteroperability barriers

Means:- Process &

organizational-Design &

architecting- MBE /CAE- Business models

- Software and data- Interrelations management- Competence and Life-long learning

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 34

M. Törngren and P. Grogan: How to Deal with the Complexity of Future Cyber-Physical Systems? Designs, 4, 2018

Physical vs. Software vs. Data systems – a broader view is essential!

Physical systems Software DataPhenomenaand effects

Multiple coupled physicalphenomena, (wear, fatigue, heat, …)”slow cycles”

State space; bugs; connectivity; variabilityFast local & global effects”very fast cycles”

Super-human performance; Brittleness

Abstractions, synthesis, and platforms

Approximations, Cont. time & value; No single “platform”, Behavioral model sim. vs. Geometry based synthesis

Digital / discretization”platform” foundations; Logic preserving transf.; Abstracted physical props!

New programming model; model- or learning based(“ML”, “RL”, “DL”)

Extra-functionalproperties

Established cost models Dependencies and reusecreate additional relations.Difficult to estimate life-cycle cost

SW under the hoodFailure modes; Quality, availability; accessibility; quality

Combined … and in systems at different levels

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 35

Human cognitive abilities and limitations

Short-term MEM

Long-term MEM

Actions/proceduresConceptsAssociations

Sensors

Cere-bellum

”slow system”

Narrating selfHeuristics and biases

Capacity: ~ 5-10 ”chunks”

Limited budget ofattention & interference

Learning and adaptation

Potentialoverruling

Super-vision

”Cache”

Spinal cord

Actuators

”fast system”

We tend to divide separate aspects into categories (Sapolsky)• Boxing helps focus but is devastating to ”thinking out of the box”• Viewpoints are arbitrary; Group think

Difficulty in dealing with feedback and delayed systemsWe are not primarily rational beings (Kahneman)

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 36

Outline

Towards Human-Centered Trustworthy CPS

4. Directions3. Complexity analysis

1. Automotive and AVs 2. CPS generalization andimplications

5. Conclusions

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 37

Industrial and societal transformation -towards sustainability

Leverage CPS and digitalization for Sustainability• Transport, agriculture, energy …

New methodologies to engineer CPS, towards• managed complexity, ensuring trustworthiness: H-CPS• mitigate side-effects, unintended emergence and unreasonable risk

What can various actors do?• Collaboration, open data sharing, testbeds, • Policies and incentives: balancing innovation & risk• Education

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 38

CPS example – opportunities and co-design

Fuel-cellDistributed controlElectrical actuators

Hy-Wire Skateboard conceptIn 2002 (GM)

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 39

CPS capabilities and design towards sustainability

Leveraging CPS and CPSoS design: • Replacing/reducing CO2 emissions

– “system level effects”• Energy use and management

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 40

Gather, store and process dataAwareness and predictionPlan and make decisionsAffect and create physical & SW systemsGenerate and control energyCollaborate - exchange information, visualizationAt various time and system perspectives

Towards a circular economy• Tracing, identification, prediction• Modularity• Individualized tailored production of spare parts• Reuse, recycling, upgrading, downgrading, maintenance

Modeling and simulation tools

Co-simulation FMI, HLA, DDS, ModelCONNECT, AD-EYE

KTH survey on Modeling & sim. tools:Dated: ”Jan. 2019”!Courtesy: Xinhai Zhang

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 41

A need for new CPS methodologies- to manage complexity and incorporate sustainability

Design for X – integrated design – Co-design• Humans - CPS; Trustworthiness properties; Cyber & Physical • Energy, Materials, Digitalization, Resilience, Learning, Incentives

Supporting humans in dealing with complexity • Dealing with large design space and complex environments! • Embedded situation awareness and risk metrics/management• Visualization - AI-Assistants• Collaboration and communication skills• Awareness: Complexity; knowledge on human cognitive abilities

The Cynefin model

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 42

Anchoring and bridging viewpoints

43

Con

cept

Leve

lM

odel

Leve

lTo

ol/

cmpo

nent

ConceptLevel

Model

LevelTool/

cmponent

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 43

M. Törngren et al. Integrating Viewpoints in the Development of Mechatronic Products. Mechatronics, Dec. 2013

Resilience principles from social-ecological systems

Maintain diversity and redundancyManage connectivityManage slow variables and feedbacks Foster complex adaptive systems thinkingEncourage learningBroaden participation Promote polycentric governance systems

Book: Principles for Building Resilience -Sustaining Ecosystem Services in Social-Ecological Systems, 2015

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 44

Education and training challenges

Need for educational renewal!

Need for life-long learning!

Low status of education is a problem!

Role of competence networks!

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 45

Martin Törngren et al. Competence networks in the era of CPS – lessons learnt in the ICES cross-disciplinary and multi-domain center. Workshop on Embedded and Cyber-Physical Systems Education (WESE), 2019

How is KTH responding to these challenges?

• Emphasizing educational renewal and life-long learning• Broader view of competence

• Testbeds for future CPSoS, including• Intelligent transportation

• Smart homes – Live In Lab: www.liveinlab.kth.se/en

• Competence networks: students; faculty; industry• Sustainable Industry and Society – the IRIS initiatve• Digitalization and Trustworthy CPS

• Trustworthy Edge Computing Systems and Applications

46Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren

Outline

Towards Human-Centered Trustworthy CPS

4. Directions3. Complexity analysis

1. Automotive and AVs 2. CPS generalization andimplications

5. Conclusions

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 47

How can we trust future CPS?

Failure modes, explainability, understandability, ethics/valuesSafety, security, reliability and privacy – multiple attributes!

The Automation paradox!

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 48

Towards human-centered and sustainablecyber-physical systems!

Elaborated from FE Bureau: www.financialexpress.com/education-2/what-will-shape-future-smart-cities-of-india-find-out-here/968678/

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 49

Millions of tons of CO2 emissionsfrom 1850 with projection

Selected references

Martin Törngren et al. Competence networks in the era of CPS – lessons learnt in the ICES cross-disciplinary and multi-domain center. Workshop on Embedded and Cyber-Physical Systems Education (WESE) at ESWEEK 2019, SpringerMartin Törngren and Paul T. Grogan. How to Deal with the Complexity of Future Cyber-Physical Systems?, Journal of Designs, Vol. 2, No. 4, 2018 Martin Törngren and Ulf Sellgren. Complexity Challenges in Development of Cyber-Physical Systems. In Principles of Modeling; M. Lohstroh et al – editors; Springer, 2018; Vol. 10760, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, July 2018Martin Törngren et al. Architecting Safety Supervisors for High Levels of Automated Driving. 21st IEEE Int. Conf. on Intelligent Transp. Systems, Nov. 2018.Martin Törngren et al. Integrating Viewpoints in the Development of Mechatronic Products. Mechatronics, special issue on Model-based mechatronic system-design, Elsevier Dec. 2013Patricia Derler, Edward Lee, Martin Törngren, Stavros Tripakis. Cyber-Physical System Design Contracts, ICCPS '13: ACM/IEEE 4th International Conference on Cyber-Physical Systems, 2013Platform4CPS recommendations: www.platforms4cps.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/E-Book_-_Platforms4CPS_Key_Outcomes_and_Recommendations.pdf

Towards Human-Centered and Trustworthy Cyber-Physical Systems, June 2020, Martin Törngren 50

Herbert Simon. The Steam engine and the computer. EDUCOM Bulletin Vol. 22, no. 1, 1987)Daniel Kahneman. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Macmillan, 2011Robert M. Sapolsky. Behave - The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst, 2017

SERC Talks June 3, 2020 52

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