Post on 30-Dec-2015
description
Weekly Weather BriefingWeekly Weather Briefing09/29/201109/29/2011
www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing
Keith StellmanKeith StellmanWarning Coordination MeteorologistWarning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Overview
Today and FridayToday and Friday Near Record high temps ~100 TodayNear Record high temps ~100 Today Cold front pushes through the 4 state area Thur Cold front pushes through the 4 state area Thur
Night.Night. Strong winds and Low RH values on Fri make for Strong winds and Low RH values on Fri make for
potential Red Flag Conditions.potential Red Flag Conditions.
WeekendWeekend Much Cooler and remaining dry.Much Cooler and remaining dry.
Monday through WednesdayMonday through Wednesday Slow warmup through the week…remains dry.Slow warmup through the week…remains dry.
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana
Currently at Currently at the Surfacethe Surface
Old FrontOld FrontMore Humid AirmassMore Humid Airmass
Tonight/Friday Tonight/Friday FrontFront
Thursday HighsThursday Highs Sept 29Sept 29thth is is
the latest the latest recorded 100 recorded 100 degree day for degree day for SHV.SHV. Oct 1,2 for Oct 1,2 for
East TXEast TX Low RH Low RH
values today values today as wellas well
Fire Danger Fire Danger ThursdayThursday RH values will RH values will
be low be low combined with combined with dry fuels from dry fuels from lack of rain the lack of rain the past week.past week.
Winds running Winds running less than 10 less than 10 mph during mph during the daythe day
FridayFriday
LH
Front Front moves moves throughthrough
Cooler Cooler …but …but much much drier drier with with strong strong windswinds
Friday Max WindsFriday Max Winds Winds Winds
strongest strongest through 1 – 2 through 1 – 2 pm… pm… decreasing decreasing through the through the afternoonafternoon
Strongest Strongest across East TXacross East TX
Wind Direction Wind Direction = N -> NE= N -> NE
20-25 mph15-20 mph
10-15 mph
Friday Minimum RH %Friday Minimum RH % RH values RH values
decreasing decreasing through the through the day as drier air day as drier air filters in.filters in.
Lowest RH Lowest RH values 2 - 6 values 2 - 6 PMPM
< 15%15% - 20 %
20% - 25 %
SundaySunday Upper level low Upper level low
over great over great lakes will shift lakes will shift easteast
Upper ridge Upper ridge and surface and surface ridge build in.ridge build in.
Nice weekendNice weekend Highs – low Highs – low
80’s80’s Lows – 50’sLows – 50’s
LH
TuesdayTuesday Pattern Pattern
Change?!!!Change?!!! Ridge shifts Ridge shifts
easteast Trof develops Trof develops
over the westover the west
Nice WeatherNice Weather Highs – Mid Highs – Mid
80’s80’s Lows – upper Lows – upper
50’s/low 60’s50’s/low 60’s
L H
Next ThursdayNext Thursday Pattern Pattern
Change!!Change!! Large trof Large trof
develops develops across the across the westwest
Gulf opens up Gulf opens up and humidity and humidity returnsreturns
Chance of Chance of rain…? By rain…? By Fri/SatFri/Sat
LH
TropicsTropics
Neither are expected to impact the Neither are expected to impact the US over the next 7 daysUS over the next 7 days
Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought
FIRE DANGER PERSISTS!FIRE DANGER PERSISTS!
Virtually no Virtually no change…change…
NCDC “An analysis of Texas NCDC “An analysis of Texas statewide tree-ring records statewide tree-ring records
dating back to 1550 indicates dating back to 1550 indicates that the summer of 2011 is that the summer of 2011 is
matched only by the summer of matched only by the summer of 1789.”1789.”
NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:
ThursdayThursday Oct 6, 2011 10 AM Oct 6, 2011 10 AM
www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing
National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana