Weekly Weather BriefingWeekly Weather Briefing07/21/201107/21/2011

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Keith StellmanKeith StellmanWarning Coordination MeteorologistWarning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

100 + Days in July !!100 + Days in July !!Tyler

LongviewHad 19 in a row Shreveport

**Current average monthly temperature in Tyler = 90.6. This is 1 degree warmer than the warmest

month on record.

**Tyler set an all-time record for consecutive days of 100+ with current

streak of 23. Old record was 20 set in 1998.

Records since 1896

• SHV 4” Soil Temp = 92

OverviewToday + FridayToday + Friday

Above average temperatures through the period.Above average temperatures through the period. Low chances for rain...especially AR, LA, Deep East Low chances for rain...especially AR, LA, Deep East

TX.TX.WeekendWeekend

Continued HotContinued Hot Continued low rain chancesContinued low rain chances

Monday through WednesdayMonday through Wednesday Upper level high pressure ridge will shift from east Upper level high pressure ridge will shift from east

coast to Rockies back to east coast through the coast to Rockies back to east coast through the period.period.

High temperatures will remain in the upper 90s/near High temperatures will remain in the upper 90s/near 100.100.

Rain chances will remain 20-30%. Rain chances will remain 20-30%.

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

CurrentlyCurrently

Weak Disturbance

Bret

Regional Radar 830 AM

Today (Thursday)Today (Thursday)Rain Chances Rain Chances HighsHighs

WeekendWeekend

Upper level Upper level ridge will shift ridge will shift over Eastern over Eastern US.US.

May allow for May allow for more sea more sea breeze storms breeze storms to work northto work north

MondayMonday Ridge quickly Ridge quickly

shifts back shifts back west. west.

Means hot Means hot temps in TX temps in TX again.again.

Best rain Best rain chances will be chances will be south and eastsouth and east

Wednesday +Wednesday + Upper ridge Upper ridge

transitions back transitions back to Eastern USto Eastern US

Remain hot Remain hot through through transition.transition.

Isolated storms Isolated storms possible once it possible once it movesmoves

Forecast Precip Next 5 Forecast Precip Next 5 DaysDays Best Best

chances chances south and south and easteast

Very isolated Very isolated in NE TX…in NE TX…SE OK…SW SE OK…SW AR.AR.

TropicsTropics2 current storms. Both going out to sea.2 current storms. Both going out to sea.

TropicsTropics

Models a couple days ago wanted to do something with this…but have since

backed off

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought

Much of Much of Northwest and Northwest and North-central North-central Louisiana Louisiana remains under remains under D3-D4 drought D3-D4 drought conditions.conditions.

Improvements Improvements in South LAin South LA

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought

Much of east Much of east Texas Texas along/south of along/south of I-20 under I-20 under D3-D4 D3-D4 drought drought conditions.conditions.

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought Much of Much of

Southern Southern Arkansas under Arkansas under D1-D2 drought D1-D2 drought conditions.conditions.

Stripe of D3 Stripe of D3 along the along the LA/AR lineLA/AR line

D1 added in D1 added in Sevier/Little Sevier/Little RiverRiver

Drought OutlookDrought Outlook

Appears that Appears that only something only something tropical or an tropical or an abnormal abnormal weather weather pattern would pattern would break our break our drought drought through through OctoberOctober

Month to Date Month to Date Percentage of Normal Percentage of Normal

RainfallRainfall

NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:

FridayFriday July 29, 2011 10 AM July 29, 2011 10 AM

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National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana