Post on 17-Nov-2020
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Senin, 11 Nopember 2019
Weekly Strategic
Target Koreksi 6,109.03 & Peluang Konsolidasi Baru
1) Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada Q3 2019 sebesar
5.02% yoy, lebih rendah dari kuartal sebelumnya yang sebesar 5.05%. Pertumbuhan tertinggi dicapai
oleh komponen pengeluaran konsumsi lembaga nonprofit yang melayani rumah tangga sebesar
7.44% yoy, diikuti oleh komponen pengeluaran konsumsi rumah tangga sebesar 5.01% yoy, dan
komponen pembentukan modal tetap bruto (investasi) sebesar 4.21% yoy yang tercatatkan berada di
titik terendah dalam dua belas kuartal sebelumnya. 2) Bank Indonesia (BI) mencatatkan cadangan
devisa pada bulan Oktober meningkat sebesar US$ 2.36 miliar dari bulan sebelumnya menjadi US$
126.69 miliar. Menurut BI, peningkatan cadangan devisa di bulan Oktober dipengaruhi oleh penerbitan
global bond pemerintah, penerimaan devisa migas, dan penerimaan valas lainnya. Posisi cadangan
devisa juga setara dengan pembiayaan 7.4 bulan impor atau 7.1 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang
luar negeri pemerintah, serta berada di atas standar kecukupan internasional sekitar tiga bulan impor.
Walaupun cadangan devisa saat ini lebih banyak diperoleh dari utang luar negeri daripada ekspor,
dimana dapat menimbulkan risiko karena terdapat kewajiban pembayaran kembali sehingga
menggerogoti devisa itu kembali, namun BI menilai cadangan devisa saat ini mampu mendukung
ketahanan sektor eksternal serta menjaga stabilitas makroekonomi dan sistem keuangan. 3) Saat ini
pemerintah tengah merancang Program Prioritas dan Program Kerja 2020 – 2024 di bidang
perekonomian. Terdapat empat kelompok program yang akan disasar: i) Program untuk mendorong
pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkualitas (growth). ii) Program untuk meningkatkan pemerataan
ekonomi dan pengurangan kesenjangan (inklusif). iii) Program untuk mendukung keberlanjutan
ekonomi (sustainability). iv) Program untuk meningkatkan daya saing ekonomi (competitiveness). Saat
ini pemerintah telah menyiapkan 15 program percepatan yang menjadi prioritas untuk diselesaikan
dalam waktu enam bulan kedepan. Program Prioritas tersebut sebagai upaya untuk menjaga
ketahanan ekonomi nasional dari tekanan global. Kerangka pikir penyusunan program tersebut
sejalan dengan Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional (RPUMN), Rencana Kerja
Pemerintah (RKP), Rencana Kerja dan Anggaran Kementerian/Lembaga (RKA/KL), dan Nota
Keuangan. Kriteria program bersifat strategis dan berdampak luas kepada masyarakat serta bersifat
lintas sektoral dan berimplikasi luas pada kinerja K/L, serta mampu menyerap banyak tenaga kerja,
investasi besar, dan menggunakan teknologi tinggi. Usulan Program Prioritas tersebut antara lain
implementasi mandatori B30, perbaikan ekosistem ketenagakerjaan, Jaminan Produk Halal (JPH),
penelitian dan pengembangan Industri farmasi, penguatan Trans Pacific Petrochemical Indotama
(TPPI), pembenahan kebijakan Kredit Usaha Rakyat (KUR), penerapan kartu Pra Kerja,
pengembangan kawasan Batam – Bintan – Karimun (BBK), gasifikasi batubara, pengembangan
hortikultura berorientasi ekspor, kemitraan pertanian berbasis teknologi, percepatan elektronifikasi
keuangan daerah, green refinery, dan omnibus law perizinan masuk RUU cipta lapangan kerja.
Secara keseluruhan dalam sepekan terakhir IHSG kembali melemah sebesar 0.47% atau 29.20 point,
ditutup di level 6,177.99. Akumulasi minat jual asing dalam sepekan terakhir tercatatkan mewarnai
pergerakan IHSG sebesar Rp.2.57 triliun diantaranya pada saham BBRI, BMRI, BBCA, TLKM, BBNI,
ASII, ICBP, PTPP, UNVR, PWON. Dan dalam dua pekan sampai dengan empat pekan terakhir juga
tercatatkan akumulasi minat jual asing masing masing sebesar Rp.4.29 triliun, Rp.3.96 triliun, dan
Rp.5.32 triliun. Dalam sepekan terakhir nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS tercatatkan menguat dari
Rp.14.066 menjadi Rp.14.020.
IHSG masih berpeluang untuk menguji level 6,109.03 selama masih bertahan di bawah 6,180.34.
Namun adanya kekuatan beli di akhir pekan perdagangan kemarin membuat adanya peluang untuk
membentuk konsolidasi baru pada rentang level tertentu. Beberapa saham di LQ45 yang saat ini
secara histori mendekati PE ratio terendah diantaranya ADRO, AKRA, ASII, BBNI, BBTN, BMRI,
BSDE, ERAA, GGRM, HMSP, INDF, ITMG, JPFA, JSMR, LPPF, MEDC, MNCN, PGAS, PTBA, PTPP,
PWON, SCMA, SRIL, UNTR, WIKA, dan WSKT. Berita ekonomi luar negeri di pekan ini diantaranya
US Inflation rate October & US retail sales October. Sedangkan berita ekonomi domestik di pekan ini
diantaranya indeks harga property Q3, pertumbuhan kredit September, penjualan mobil Oktober, dan
neraca perdagangan Oktober.
Widhi Indratmo Nugroho Analyst
widhi@lotussekuritas.com
+62 21 5785 1818 (Ext.2051)
Close
Weekly Return ▼
Yield to Date ▼
PE (X)
Volume (miliar) ▼
Value (Rp. triliun) ▼
BI 7-Day RR
IDR/USD Rp.
COMPOSITE LAST
TOTAL TRANSACTION
-0.47%
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
14,020
5.00%
42.46
63.36
15.20
-0.27%
6,177.99
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
JCI vs Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD
5,700
6,200
6,700
7,200
7,700
2-Jan-19 14-Jun-19 8-Nov-19
(14,000)
1,000
16,000
31,000
46,000
Composite (LHS) Net Buy YTD in Rp.bn (RHS)
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
SECTOR
Agriculture ▲ 2.06% ▲ 0.80%
Basic Industry ▲ 2.16% ▲ 0.41%
Consumer Goods ▼ -1.66% ▼ -0.07%
Finance ▼ -0.99% ▼ -0.13%
Infrastructure ▼ -0.37% ▼ -4.75%
Manufacture ▼ -0.53% ▲ 0.05%
Mining ▲ 0.49% ▼ -2.94%
Misc. Industry ▼ -2.24% ▼ -0.25%
Property ▼ -1.13% ▲ 0.48%
Trade & Service ▲ 1.04% ▼ -0.27%
WEEKLY RETURN
8-Nov-19 1-Nov-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
SECTOR
Agriculture ▼ 1.39% ▼ -0.07%
Basic Industry ▲ 11.68% ▲ 8.76%
Consumer Goods ▼ -6.05% ▼ -1.62%
Finance ▼ -3.08% ▲ 12.68%
Infrastructure ▲ 20.99% ▼ -16.90%
Manufacture ▼ -12.61% ▲ 7.59%
Mining ▲ 0.47% ▼ -15.25%
Misc. Industry ▼ -8.06% ▲ 7.87%
Property ▲ 21.26% ▲ 1.73%
Trade & Service ▲ 14.41% ▲ 27.53%
8-Nov-19 1-Nov-19
WEEKLY CAPITAL FLOW
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
2
Weekly Strategic Senin, 11 Nopember 2019
IDR Volatility
2.48%
5. 1%
0.87%
1.15%1.48%1.72%1.39%1.64%1.16%1.05%1.86%1.50%
Ave 2015, 2.1%
Ave 2016, 1.9%
Ave 2017, 0.9%
Ave 2018, 1.6%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Ave 2015
Ave 2016 Ave 2017 Ave 2018 Note: Penghitungan berdasarkan nilai tengah rupiah
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Yield to Date – Sector
Y ield t o D at e 2 0 19
Agr icul tur e
-10.67%Basic Industr y
11.09%Consumer Good
-19.25%Finance
8.04%Inf r astr uctur e
8.66%Manuf actur e
-10.65%Mining
-14.18%Misc.Industr y
-15.52%Propert y &
Const ruct ion,
14.54%Trade & Service
3.04%
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Y ield t o D at e 2 0 18
Agr icul tur e
-3.21%Basic Industr y
24.01%Consumer Good
-10.21%Finance
3.05%Inf r astr uctur e
-10.09%Manuf actur e
-1.34%Mining
11.45%Misc.Industr y
0.96%Pr oper ty &
Constr uction
-9.64%Tr ade & Ser vice
-14.94%
-30% -15% 0% 15% 30%
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Sector Performance of the JCI
Perf ormance 2 0 19
Agr icultur e
Basic Industr y
Consumer Good
Finance
Inf r astr uctur e
Manuf actur e
Mining
Misc.Industr y
Pr oper ty &
Constr uction
Tr ade & Ser vice
-20 -10 0 10 20
Perf ormance 2 0 18
Agr icul tur e
Basic Industr y
Consumer Good
Finance
Inf r astr uctur e
Manuf actur e
Mining
Misc.Industr y
Pr oper ty &
Constr uction
Tr ade & Ser vice
-34 -17 0 17 34
Note: Cumulative Return Rebase to JCI = 0
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Volatilitas nilai tukar rupiah terus menurun dan terjaga di bawah 2% (rata rata volatilitas 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018: 2.1%, 1.9%, 0.9%, 1.6%) seiring dengan kebijakan pre-emptive & ahead the curve untuk mendukung kestabilan nilai tukar rupiah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Volatilitas IDR dalam sepekan terakhir sebesar 0.75% dan selama bulan November sebesar 0.87%.
Selama 2018, sector trade & service (-14.94% ytd) menjadi driver terbesar pelemahan IHSG dan berkinerja terburuk. Sedangkan sector basic industry menjadi penopang terbesar pelemahan IHSG (+24.01% ytd). Sector manufacture walaupun melemah (-1.34% ytd) di 2018, namun koreksinya lebih kecil dibanding koreksi IHSG (-2.54% ytd) sehingga kinerja sector manufactur masih positif di tahun tersebut. Dalam sepekan terakhir sebagian besar sektor melemah. Koreksi terbesar terjadi pada sektor misc industry (-2.24%) dan secara keseluruhan terkoreksi (-15.52% ytd), dan saat ini kinerjanya terburuk kedua. Sedangkan penguatan terbesar terjadi pada sektor basic industry (+2.16%), dan secara keseluruhan menguat (+11.09% ytd), dan saat ini berkinerja terbaik kedua.
Sentimen pernyataan the Fed yang pertama kali akan menaikan tingkat bunganya di akhir 2015 membuat volatilitas IDR Oktober 2015 mencapai 5.1%
3
Weekly Strategic Senin, 11 Nopember 2019
Price Earning Ratio IHSG
7.38x
10.38x
13.38x
16.38x
19.38x
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Dec-03 Jan-06 Dec-07 Jan-10 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15 Dec-17 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Siklus Pergerakan Harian IHSG
J C ICy c le
Average
+1 STDEV
-1 STDEV
-
875
1,750
2,625
3,500
4,375
5,250
6,125
7,000
Jan-03 Sep-04 May-06 Feb-08 Oct -09 Jun-11 Feb-13 Nov-14 Jul-16 Mar-18 Dec-19
0.43
0.56
0.69
0.82
0.95
1.08
1.21
1.34
1.47
1.60
1.73
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Siklus Pergerakan Harian Beberapa Saham LQ45 & Lainnya
Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside
ADRO 1.09 0.83 1.04 1.25 Trading 1,576 11.3% INTP 1.01 0.91 1.12 1.32 Trading 19,321 -5.98%
AKRA 0.86 0.92 1.13 1.34 BoW 4,929 30.4% ITMG 0.98 0.91 1.12 1.32 Trading 18,958 46.96%
ANTM 0.90 0.77 0.98 1.19 Trading 1,209 44.8% JPFA 0.96 0.88 1.19 1.51 Trading 1,718 -0.1%
ASII 0.92 0.90 1.12 1.34 Trading 8,025 21.1% JSMR 0.92 0.96 1.14 1.31 BoW 6,431 26.1%
BBCA 1.08 1.00 1.10 1.21 Trading 30,662 -2.3% KLBF 1.03 1.00 1.20 1.39 Trading 1,597 0.78%
BBNI 0.90 0.90 1.14 1.38 Trading 10,017 30.5% LPPF 0.91 0.02 1.54 3.07 Trading 4,783 31.04%
BBRI 0.96 0.98 1.11 1.24 BoW 4,670 17.0% MEDC 0.79 0.82 1.02 1.22 BoW 1,043 64.30%
BBTN 0.81 -4.86 1.72 8.30 Trading 2,698 42.7% MNCN 1.36 0.86 1.18 1.50 Trading 1,565 4.7%
BMRI 0.96 0.96 1.06 1.16 Trading 8,971 26.3% PGAS 0.92 0.92 1.08 1.23 Trading 2,478 23.9%
BRPT 1.28 0.75 0.86 0.97 SoS 635 -35.20% PTBA 0.82 0.78 0.94 1.11 Trading 3,509 36.0%
BSDE 1.01 0.94 1.08 1.22 Trading 1,692 20.44% PTPP 0.79 0.85 1.13 1.41 BoW 2,647 67.6%
BTPS 1.38 -8.79 3.58 15.95 Trading 0 -100.0% PWON 0.86 0.87 1.12 1.37 BoW 765 32.0%
CPIN 1.30 0.82 1.28 1.73 Trading 4,594 -39.56% SCMA 0.77 0.91 1.25 1.60 BoW 1,889 60.7%
CTRA 1.01 0.89 1.15 1.40 Trading 1,349 24.3% SMGR 1.02 0.88 0.98 1.09 Trading 13,824 7.8%
ERAA 0.92 -4.86 1.68 8.23 Trading 1,975 20.76% SRIL 0.83 0.74 0.83 0.92 Trading 420 53.3%
EXCL 1.17 0.83 1.10 1.37 Trading 3,861 11.9% TKIM 1.10 0.73 1.01 1.29 Trading 0 -100.0%
GGRM 0.72 0.89 1.18 1.48 BoW 92,451 72.8% TLKM 1.01 1.05 1.15 0.95 BoW 4,713 14.7%
HMSP 0.66 0.97 1.15 1.32 BoW 3,656 77.5% TPIA 1.40 0.83 1.03 1.24 SoS 4,568 -49.8%
ICBP 1.06 0.96 1.10 1.23 Trading 12,041 6.8% UNTR 0.94 0.84 1.08 1.33 Trading 31,008 33.2%
INCO 1.06 0.80 1.02 1.24 Trading 3,814 7.1% UNVR 0.93 0.98 1.10 1.23 BoW 45,490 5.4%
INDF 1.07 0.86 1.11 1.37 Trading 8,278 6.8% WIKA 0.92 0.88 0.95 0.80 SoS 2,832 45.6%
INDY 0.84 0.95 1.18 0.71 BoW 2,125 56.3% WSKT 0.80 0.87 1.12 1.37 BoW 2,305 55.2%
INKP 0.98 0.76 0.99 1.23 Trading 7,175 -12.50%
Note: 1. TP (Target Price) Konsensus Bloomberg
2. Cycle: Posisi harga close saham di minggu terakhir
3. Posisi Cycle yang berada dibawah (-1) standard deviation, diperkirakan mempunyai ruang koreksi yang mulai terbatas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Closing 8 November 2019
Saat ini IHSG berada pada PE ratio 15.20x.
Bottom Fishing Buy on Weakness
Trading Area
Sell on Strength
Closing 8 November 2019
Krisis Global 2008
Saat ini siklus IHSG di antara
level -1 standard deviasi &
average.
4
Weekly Strategic Senin, 11 Nopember 2019
Stock Pick
ADRO
AKRA
ANTM
BBCA
BBNI
BBRI
BBTN
BMRI CTRA
ERAA
GGRM
ICBP INCO
INDF
INTP
JPFA
JSMR
KLBF
LPPF
MNCN
PGAS
PTBA
PTPP
PWON
SCMA SRIL
TPIA
UNTR
UNVR
WSKT
BRPT
SMGR
ASII
HMSP
EXCL
CPIN
INDY
TLKM
WIKA
BSDE
INKP
ITMG
MEDC
-50%
0%
50%
100%
0.4 1.0 1.6
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Saham Underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah
ADRO PE Band AKRA PE Band
4.27x
7.78x
11.29x
14.8x18.31x
300
1,100
1,900
2,700
3,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
13.51x
18.98x
24.44x
29.9x
35.37x
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
ASII PE Band BBNI PE Band
9.42x
13.01x
16.59x20.18x23.77x
4,000
5,750
7,500
9,250
11,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
6x
7.9x
9.8x11.7x
13.6x
2,000
4,500
7,000
9,500
12,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
Fairly Price Line
Overprice Area
(Negative Alpha)
Underprice Area
(Positive Alpha)
Beberapa saham yang berada di atas fairly price line (security market line) mencerminkan kondisi underprice. Investor dapat melakukan posisi beli maupun menambah proporsi (overweight) pada saham ini. Sedangkan beberapa saham yang berada di bawah fairly price line mencerminkan kondisi overprice. Investor dapat melakukan posisi jual atau mengurangi proporsi (underweight) pada saham ini. investasi pada aset berisiko seperti saham seharusnya memberi return lebih besar dari investasi pada aset bebas risiko. Investor harus mendapat kompensasi dari investasi di aset berisiko (risk premium). Makin besar kompensasi (risk premium) yang diterima investor dicerminkan oleh gradient (m) garis fairly price line yang bernilai positif menjauhi nol (m>0).
Closing 8 November 2019
Sensitivity to Market
Expected Return
Risk Free
5
Weekly Strategic Senin, 11 Nopember 2019
BBTN PE Band BMRI PE Band
5.46x
7.35x
9.24x
11.13x
13.01x
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
8.65x
11.45x
14.24x
17.03x19.83x
2,000
4,500
7,000
9,500
12,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
BSDE PE Band ERAA PE Band
6.34x
11.3x
16.25x
21.21x
26.16x
500
1,200
1,900
2,600
3,300
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
4.02x
8.73x
14.23x
19.73x
25.23x
50
1,150
2,250
3,350
4,450
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
GGRM PE Band HMSP PE Band
8.7x
13.67x
18.64x
23.61x28.59x
25,000
51,000
77,000
103,000
129,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
13.45x
22.51x
31.57x
40.63x
49.69x
1,000
2,500
4,000
5,500
7,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
INDF PE Band ITMG PE Band
12.24x
17.2x
22.16x
27.12x32.08x
2,000
5,000
8,000
11,000
14,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
2.78x
5.26x
7.75x
10.24x
12.72x
2,000
14,000
26,000
38,000
50,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
6
Weekly Strategic Senin, 11 Nopember 2019
JPFA PE Band JSMR PE Band
5.75x
13.22x
20.69x
28.17x35.64x
100
1,100
2,100
3,100
4,100
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
20.15x
25.9x
31.65x
37.4x
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
LPPF PE Band MEDC PE Band
3.06x
11.92x
20.78x
29.64x38.49x
200
7,200
14,200
21,200
28,200
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
1.39x
15.02x
28.66x42.29x55.92x
50
600
1,150
1,700
2,250
Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
MNCN PE Band PGAS PE Band
8.41x
13.92x
19.3x
24.69x
30.08x
200
1,200
2,200
3,200
4,200
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
8.73x
14.56x
20.39x
26.22x
32.04x
500
3,000
5,500
8,000
10,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
PTBA PE Band PTPP PE Band
3.24x
6.56x
9.89x13.22x16.54x
250
1,750
3,250
4,750
6,250
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
4.79x
12.42x
20.32x28.22x36.12x
200
1,500
2,800
4,100
5,400
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
7
Weekly Strategic Senin, 11 Nopember 2019
PWON PE Band SCMA PE Band
8.39x
12.18x
15.98x19.77x23.56x
100
325
550
775
1,000
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
6.39x
15.5x
24.6x
33.71x42.81x
500
1,750
3,000
4,250
5,500
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
SRIL PE Band UNTR PE Band
3.4x
6.04x
8.75x
11.3x13.93x
50
250
450
650
850
Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
4.41x
8.37x
12.33x16.29x20.25x
5,000
17,000
29,000
41,000
53,000
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
WIKA PE Band WSKT PE Band
7.46x
15.19x
22.93x30.67x38.41x
100
1,300
2,500
3,700
4,900
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
4.55x
11.66x
18.76x25.86x32.97x
100
1,100
2,100
3,100
4,100
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
8
Weekly Strategic Senin, 11 Nopember 2019
Support Resistance Beta Volatility Bearish Bullish
MINING
Coal, Oil & Gas, Metal & Other Resources
Adaro Energy Tbk ADRO 1,415 1,270 1,435 0.93 6.15% 16.46% Underweight 1,380 1,440
Indika Energy Tbk INDY 1,360 1,260 1,380 1.33 8.50% -14.20% Overweight 1,315 1,395
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk ITMG 12,900 12,300 13,150 1.04 6.57% -36.30% Overweight 12,550 13,150
Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk PTBA 2,580 2,220 2,610 1.17 5.90% -40.00% Overweight 2,500 2,640
Medco Energi International Tbk MEDC 635 635 670 1.36 6.34% -7.30% Overweight 615 650
Aneka Tambang Tbk ANTM 835 810 870 1.52 6.40% 9.15% Overweight 805 860
Vale Indonesia INCO 3,560 3,460 3,690 1.41 6.29% 9.20% Underweight 3,430 3,650
BASIC INDUSTRY
Cement, Chemistry, & Others
Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk. INTP 20,550 19,725 21,000 1.58 5.81% 11.38% Underweight 19,750 21,175
Semen Gresik Tbk SMGR 12,825 12,400 12,950 1.40 5.05% 11.52% Underweight 12,375 13,175
Barito Pacific BRPT 980 945 995 1.16 6.49% 105.02% Underweight 950 1,000
Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk TPIA 9,100 9,050 9,500 0.87 4.94% 53.59% Underweight 8,900 9,250
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN 7,600 6,750 7,650 1.58 7.12% 5.19% Underweight 7,300 7,825
JAPFA JPFA 1,720 1,660 1,790 1.34 6.90% -20.00% Underweight 1,660 1,765
Indah Kiat Pulp and Paper Tbk INKP 8,200 7,375 8,400 2.06 9.45% -29.00% Underweight 7,775 8,525
Pabrik Kertas Tjiwi Kimia Tbk TKIM 11,800 10,600 11,825 2.38 11.07% 6.31% Underweight 11,100 12,350
MISC.INDUSTRY
Otomotif & Manufacturing of Garments
Astra International Tbk ASII 6,625 6,550 6,975 1.31 3.71% -19.45% Overweight 6,400 6,775
Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk SRIL 274 270 284 0.65 3.18% -23.46% Overweight 270 278
CONSUMER GOODS
Foods, Cigarette, Pharmacy & Others
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 11,275 10,750 11,650 0.73 3.12% 7.89% Underweight 11,075 11,425
Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF 7,750 7,600 8,000 1.20 4.30% 4.03% Underweight 7,500 7,925
Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM 53,500 52,500 55,250 0.92 4.33% -36.02% Overweight 52,275 54,475
HM Sampoerna Tbk HMSP 2,060 1,995 2,130 1.00 4.15% -44.47% Overweight 2,000 2,100
Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF 1,585 1,550 1,640 1.38 4.54% 4.28% Underweight 1,530 1,625
Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 43,150 43,025 43,850 0.97 3.02% -4.96% Underweight 42,100 43,975
PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION
Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk BSDE 1,405 1,350 1,425 1.48 5.35% 11.95% Overweight 1,350 1,445
Ciputra Development Tbk CTRA 1,085 1,050 1,115 1.71 6.81% 7.43% Overweight 1,035 1,120
Pakuwon Jati Tbk PWON 580 570 625 1.37 5.26% -6.45% Overweight 560 595
PP (Persero) Tbk PTPP 1,580 1,570 1,690 1.58 6.50% -12.47% Overweight 1,515 1,625
Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA 1,945 1,925 2,100 1.47 5.78% 17.52% Overweight 1,870 2,000
Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT 1,485 1,460 1,555 1.52 5.67% -11.61% Overweight 1,425 1,525
INFRASTRUCTURE
Energy, Telecommunication, Transportation & Highway, Non Building Construction
Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk PGAS 2,000 1,880 2,050 1.37 5.89% -5.66% Overweight 1,930 2,050
XL Axiata Tbk EXCL 3,450 3,420 3,730 0.96 6.73% 74.24% Underweight 3,360 3,510
Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk TLKM 4,110 3,990 4,200 0.96 3.46% 9.60% Neutral 4,010 4,180
Jasa Marga Tbk JSMR 5,100 5,100 5,525 1.23 4.76% 19.16% Overweight 4,940 5,225
FINANCE
Bank
Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 31,400 31,250 31,900 1.05 2.59% 20.77% Underweight 38,575 32,050
Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 7,675 7,275 7,800 1.47 4.18% -12.78% Overweight 7,375 7,875
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 3,990 3,960 4,330 1.39 3.69% 9.02% Neutral 3,850 4,090
Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk BBTN 1,890 1,805 1,895 1.84 5.93% -25.59% Overweight 1,800 1,955
Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 7,100 6,775 7,200 1.36 3.98% -3.73% Overweight 6,850 7,275
Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional Syariah TbkBTPS 3,960 3,760 4,220 0.59 3.97% 120.61% Underweight 3,900 4,000
TRADE & SERVICE
Wholesale. Media, & Investment Company
AKR Corporindo Tbk AKRA 3,780 3,780 3,930 0.90 5.27% -11.89% Overweight 3,690 3,840
United Tractors Tbk UNTR 23,275 21,400 23,300 0.85 4.64% -14.90% Overweight 22,775 23,650
Erajaya Swasembada Tbk ERAA 1,635 1,555 1,660 1.68 10.58% -25.68% Overweight 1,565 1,685
Matahari Department Store Tbk LPPF 3,650 3,440 3,700 0.69 8.46% -34.82% Overweight 3,580 3,700
Media Nusantara Citra Tbk MNCN 1,495 1,300 1,540 0.81 6.92% 116.67% Underweight 1,465 1,515
Surya Citra Media Tbk SCMA 1,175 1,130 1,290 1.42 5.24% -37.17% Overweight 1,130 1,205
Emiten Ticker CloseWeekly Indicator
YTD PerformanceWeekly Forecast
Sumber: Lotus Sekuritas
9
Weekly Strategic Senin, 11 Nopember 2019
DISCLAMER
This report has been prepared by PT. Lotus Sekuritas on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has been produced independently and the forecasts,
opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of PT. Lotus Sekuritas.
While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, PT. Lotus Sekuritas
makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is provided solely for the information of clients of
PT. Lotus Sekuritas who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance on this report. Neither PT. Lotus Sekuritas nor any officer or
employee of PT. Lotus Sekuritas accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. PT. Lotus
Sekuritas and/or person connected with it may have acted upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before
publication.
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