Post on 02-Feb-2016
description
Upali Amarasinghe, Stefanos XenariosRajendran Srinivasulu, Dhrubra Pant,
Madar Samad
Water Poverty Analysis IGB Basin Focal project
BFP: Water-Poverty Analysis Setting the Context
Poverty is a rural phenomena
IGB Riparian countries has:• 1.3 billion people in 2000
– 380 million (29%) are poor
• 942 million (72%) rural population– 340 million (36%) are poor
IGB has: •605 million people
-191 million (32%) are poor
•454 million (75%) rural populatio
-151 million (33%) are poor
Poverty trends India
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Survey period
HC
R (
%)
Pakistan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Survey period
HC
R (
%)
Bangladesh
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Survey period
HC
R(%
)
Rural Urban Total
Nepal
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1995-1996 2003-2004
Survey period
HC
R (
%)
Rural Total Urban
Poverty trendsSpatial trends
Regional poverty • A major part of the poor lives in the eastern parts
• Evidence of spatial clustering
Poverty trendsSpatial trends
• Rural poor tends to live in clusters
• Water and land factor in livelihood and food security
• IGB is the hot bed of poor in South Asia
Districts
Spatial and temporal trends in the Indian IGB
Water poverty nexus-analytical framework
Land for agriculture
Water for domestic purposes
WPLN
Agriculture for livelihood and
nutritional security
Water for agriculture
WPLNWPLNWPLNWPLNWPLNWPLNWPLNWPLNWPLNWPLNWPLNWPLNLand for agriculture
WPLN
Water for agriculture
Land for agriculture
WPLNWater for domestic purposes
Water for agriculture
Land for agriculture
WPLN
Agriculture for livelihood and
nutritional security
Water for domestic purposes
Water for agriculture
Land for agriculture
WPLN
• Water poverty of exists
when:– household is poor or
incidence of poverty is high
– agriculture play a major role in the rural livelihoods
– access to a reliable water supply is a key factor in improving productivity
Poverty trendsContribution of agriculture
y = 3132 x-1.05
R2 = 0.37
y = 4398 x-1.19
R2 = 0.59
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0 50 100 150 200 250
Agriculture GDP/person (US$ in 2000 prices)
Rur
al H
CR
(%
)
Rural HCR - 1999/00 Rural HCR - 2004/05
ORCH
MP
ORMP
CHUT
BI
BIUP
UP
PUHR
MHMH
UT
TN
TN
GU
KE
HR
HPPU
WB
WB
RJ
JH
JH
GURJ
HP
1% of growth in agriculture GDP reduces poverty
by 1.05%
How to unravel water land poverty nexus?
• Use a Logit Regression model
• LR estimate probability of a person being in poverty
• P is the logistic cumulative probability function
• P/(1-P) is the odds ratio of household being poverty
• Combine household and survey data
)(1
1jiji ZZZXXXe
P
Data
• Household consumption and expenditure survey data – NSSO 55th (1999/00) and 61st (2004/05) rounds – each has 30,000+ households in the IGB
• District level aggregates of census data– Population census, agriculture census, annual
agriculture at a glance publications, IWMI water and climate atlas
– 280 districts in the IGB
Data
• Household level
– Cropped area per person
– Irrigated area- % of cropped
area
– Land tenure and holding size
– Socio-economic• HH SIZE
• Sex, religion, social class,
education, dwelling type,
• Access to electricity
• Type of ration card
• 14 indicators
• District level
– Average grain yields,
– Fruits and vegetable area
– Rainfall
– Gross irrigated area – %GCA
– % Groundwater irri. area
– Irrigated water productivity
– Marginal and small land holdings
– Road density
– Access to electricity
• 13 indicators
Results: Agriculture for rural livelihoods
Results: Agriculture for rural livelihoods
• Agriculture is an important component of the livelihoods
0204060
% of households
Household employemnt
0 10 20 30 40 50
Agriculture labor
Non-ag labor
Self employed in non-ag.
Ag operator
Others
Headcount ratio (%)
2004/05
1999/00
Low poverty in agricultur
e operators
Results: Water for agriculture
Results: Water for agriculture
0204060% of households
Irrigated area-% of total cultivated area
0 10 20 30 40
0
0 - 25
25 - 50
50-75
75-100
100
Headcount ratio (%)
2004/05
1999/00
• Yes. Access to water is important• GW irrigation impacts are higher• Water productivity in irrigation can have significant impacts
Results: Water for agriculture
• Water productivity in irrigation can have significant impacts– Supplemental irrigation– Reducing the gap of irrigation– Deficit irrigation
Relationships of yield and consumptive water use of foodgrains
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.4
3.2
4.0
4.8
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
CWU (mm)
Yie
ld (
ton/
ha)
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
WP
(kg
/m3
)
Yield Max yield Max WP
Yield
Consumptive water use
Results: Land for agriculture
Results: Land for agriculture
01020304050
% of households
Land holding size
0 10 20 30 40
No land
Marginal
Small
Semi medium
Medium
Large
Headcount ratio (%)
2004/05
1999/00
– Marginal/small lands are significant constraints for reducing poverty– Eastern IGB is besieged with marginal land holdings
Results: Infrastructure & Socio-economic variables
• Other statistically significant explanatory variables– Road density, access to electricity– Household head
• female headed HH (10% of the households) has high odds poverty
– Education of the HH head• 55% has less than primary education
– Number of graduate/postgraduate– Social groups
• ST,SC (26% of the population) has significantly higher odds
– Religions• Muslims (15% of the population) has high odds
– Household size • >=5 has sig. higher odds than <=3
– HH with ration cards• BPL (22% of the population) has higher odds
Conclusions
• Does water poverty exist? – Very much!
• Can agriculture growth have further impact?– Yes. Increase yields!
– Increase rainfed yields, intensify irrigated agriculture.
• Can water related interventions reduce poverty? – Substantially in the eastern IGB!
– Irrigation matters, and reliability of irrigation is even more significant
– Increase irrigated water productivity!
• Can access to electricity reduce poverty?– Yes. Odds of poverty of those who do not have access to electricity is 2
to 1
– Increase access to electricity in the eastern IGB can result in better water use
Conclusions
• Land related interventions help– Large number of marginal and small sizes are the biggest constraint. – Land consolidation, where ever is possible, can contribute to productivity
increase and poverty reduction.
• Roads, electricity, education matters.
• Non-farm employment have a significant impact.
• Backward social classes and women headed households have higher poverty. Need thorough analysis of these groups.
• Impacts of environmental factors needs to be included
Thank you