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ENVIRONMENT
World Scientists Warning to Hum anity
The following
statement was
eleased by the Unionof Concerned
Scientists on November18,1992.Accord-
ng to theUnion, itwas signed by over
1,500
members
ofnational regional an d
ntemationalscienceacademies...Sixty-
'.ightnations from allpartsofEarth are
^presented includingeacho fthe twelve
nost
populous nations
an d
the nineteen
argesteconom ic powers. The fulllistin-
cudes a majorityofthe scientists who
iave been awarded theNob el Prize.
INTRODUCTION
Human beings and the n atural w orld
ire on a collision course. Hum an ac-
ivities inflict harsh and often ir re-
versible damage on the environment
ind on criticalresou rces. If not check-
ed
many of our curren t practices put at
lerious risk the future that
we
wish for
luman society and the plant and animal
cingdoms and maysoalter the living
vorld that it will be unable to sustain
ife in the manner that
weknow.
Fun-
lamental changes are urgent if we are
o avoid the collision ou r pre sent course
villbring about.
THEENVIRONMENT
The
environment is suffering critical
itress:
[ he
Atmosphere
Stratospheric ozone depletion threatens
is
with enhanced ultra-violet radiation
it the earth's surface, which can be
lamaging or lethal to many life form s.
\ir pollution near ground level and acid
precipitation are already causing
videspread injury to hum ans, forests
uid crops.
Vater Resources
Heedless exploitation of depletab le
ground
water supplies endangers food
>roduction and other essential human
iystems. Heavy demands on the w orld's
mrface waters have resulted in serious
hortages in some
80
countries, contain-
ng 40percent oftheworld's popula-
ion. Pollution of rivers, lakes and
ground water further limits the supply.
Dceans
Destructive pressure on the oceans is
:evere, particularly in the coastal
regions which produce most of the
world's food fish. The total marine
catch is now at or above the estimated
maximum sustainable
yield.
Some
fisheries have already shown signs of
collapse. Rivers carrying heavy burdens
of eroded soil into the seas also carry in-
dustrial, municipal, agricultural, an a
livestock wastesome ofittoxic.
Soil
Loss of
soil
productivity, which is caus-
ing extensive land abandonm ent, is a
widespread byproduct of current prac-
tices in agriculture and animal hus-
bandry. Since
1945,11
percent of the
earth's vegetated surface has been
degradedan area larger than India
and China combinedand per capita
food production in many parts of the
world is decreasing.
Forests
Tropical rain forests, as well as tropical
and tem perate dry forests, are being
destroyed rapidly. At present rates ,
some critical forest typeswillbe gone in
a few years, and most ofthetropical
rain forest
will
be gone before the end
of the next century. With them will go
large numbers of plant and animal
species.
Living Species
The irreversible loss of species, which
by
2100 may
reach one third of all
species now living, is especially serious.
benefits,;
genetic diversity of life forms gives to
the robustness oftheworld's biological
systems and to the astonishing beauty
of
the earth
itself.
Much of
this
damage is irreversible
on a scale of centuries or perman ent.
Other processes appear to pose addi-
tional threa ts. Increasing levels of gases
in the atmosphe re from hum an ac-
tivities, including carbon dioxide
released from fossil fuel burning and
from deforestation, may alter climate on
a global scale. Pred ictions of global
warming are still uncertainwith
projected effects ranging from tolerable
to very severebut the potential risks
are very great.
Our massive tamperingwiththe
world's interdependent web of life
coupled with the environmental damage
inflicted by deforestation, species loss,
and climate changecould trigger
widespread adverse effects, including
unpred ictable collapses of critical
biological systems whose interactions
and dynamics
we
only imperfectly un -
derstand.
Uncertainty over the extent of these
effects cannot excuse complacency or
delay in facing the threats.
POPULATION
The earth is finite. Its ability to absorb
wastes and destructive effluent is finite.
Its ability to provide food and energy
is
finite. Its ability to provide for growing
numbers of peop le is finite. Andweare
fast approaching many of
the
earth's
limits. Curre nt economic practices
which damage the environment, in both
developed and underdeveloped nations,
cannot be continued w ithout the risk
that v ital global systems
will
be
damaged beyond repair.
Pressu res resulting from un-
restrained population growth put
demands on the natural world that can
overwhelm any efforts to achieve a sus-
tainable future. If
we
are to halt the
destruction of our environment, we
must accept limits to thatgrowth.A
World Bank estimate indicates that
world population will not stabilize at
less than
12.4
billion,
while the U nited
Nations concludes that the eventual
total could reach14
billion,
a near tri-
pling of today's 5.4
billion.
But, even at
this moment, one person in five lives in
absolute pove rty without enough to eat,
and one m ten suffers serious malnutri-
tion.
No more than one or a few decades
remain before the chance to avert the
threats w e now confrontwillbe lost and
the prospects for humanity immeasurab-
ly
diminished.
WARNING
We the undersigned, senior members of
the world's scientific community, hereby
warn all humanity of what lies ahead. A
great change in our stewardship of the
earth and th e life on it is required, if
vast human m iseryisto be avoided and
our global hom e on this planet is not to
be irretrievably m utilated.
WH T WEMUST DO
Five inextricably linked areas must be
addres sed simultaneously:
January-April 1993
103
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ENVIRONMENT
1.
Wemust bring environmentally
damaging
activities under control to re-
store and protect the integrity of the
earth's
systemswedepend on.
We must, for example, move away
from fossil fuels t o m ore benign, inex-
haustible energy sources to cut green-
house gas emissions and the po llution of
our air and
water.
P riority m ust be given
to the development of energy sources
matched to third world needssm all
scale and relatively easy to implement.
We must halt deforestation, injury
to and loss of agricultural land, and the
loss of terrestrial and m arine plant and
animal species.
2.
Wemust manage resources cru-
cial
to
human welfare more effectively.
We m ust give high prior ity to effi-
cient use ofenergy,water and other
materials, including expansion of con-
servation and recycling.
3.Wem ust stabilize population.
This will be possible only if
all
nations
recognize that it require s improved so-
cial and econom ic conditions, and the
adoption of effective, voluntary family
planning.
4.We
must reduce and eventually
eliminate
poverty.
5.Wemust ensure sexual equality,
andguaranteewomencontrol over
their ownreproductive decisions.
The developed nations are the
largest polluters in the world today.
They must greatly reduce their overcon-
sumption, if we are to reduce pre ssures
on resources and the global environ-
ment. The developed nations have the
obligation to provide aid and suppo rt to
developing nations, because only the
developed nations have the financial
resources and the technical skills for
these tasks.
Acting on this recognition is not
altruism, but enlightened self-interest:
whether industrialized or not, we all
have but one lifeboat. N o nation can es-
cape from injury
when
global biological
systems are damaged. No nation can es-
cape from conflicts over increasingly
scarce resources. In addition, environ-
mental and econom ic instabilities will
cause m ass migrations with incalculable
consequences for developed and un-
developed nations alike.
Developing nations must realize
that environmental damage is one of the
gravest threats they face, and that a t-
tempts to blunt it
will
be overwhelmed if
their populations go unchecked. The
greatest peril is to becom e trapped in
spirals of environmental decline, pover-
ty, and unrest, leading to social,
economic and environmental collapse.
Success in this global endeavor will
require a great reduc tion in violence
and
war.
Resources now devoted to the
prepa ration and conduct of war
amounting to over 1trillion annually
will he badly needed in the new tasks
and should be diverted to the new chal-
lenges.
A new ethic
is
requireda new at-
titude towards discharging our respon-
sibility for caring for ourselves an d for
the ear th. We must recognize the
earth's limited capacity to provide for
us.
We must recognize its fragility. We
must no longer allow it to be ravaged.
This ethic must motivate a great move-
ment, convincing reluctant leaders and
reluctant governments and reluctant
peoples themselves to effect the needed
changes.
The scientists issuing this warning
hope that our message will reach and af-
fect peo ple everywhere. We need the
help of many.
We require the help of the world
community of scientistsnatural, so-
cial, economic, political;
We require the help of
the
world's
business and industrial leaders ;
We require the help of
the
world's
religious leaders ; and
We require the help oftheworld's
peoples.
We call on all to join us in this task.
U.S. Agen cy for International
Development s Environmen-
tal Strategy (Excerpt)
1
Environmental degradation
is
a sig-
nificant and growing threat to develop-
ment throughout the world, and its
effects are fe lt most acutelybypoor
families in developing countries.
Economic
growth,
as well
as the poten-
tial for such growth, is endangered by a
natural resource base declining in
quality and quantity, while deteriorating
economies exacerbate and accelerate
degradation oftheenvironment. The
rapid and poorly managed growth of
cities in many developing countries has
led to a serious deterioration in urban
environmental conditions, adversely af-
fecting human health and the urban in-
frastructure necessary for efficient
economic development.
USAID has identified five major en-
vironmental problems that most directly
affect the developing world and the
Agency's developmental objectives:
1. Loss of tropical forests and other
habitats c ritical for biological diversity,
2.
Unsustainable agricultural prac-
tices;
3.
Environmentally unsound energy
production and use;
4.
Urban and industrial pollution;
and
5.Degradation and depletion of
water and coastal resources.
Each of
these
threatens economic
progress, biological and other natural
resources, and the health and quality
of
human life. Each also has impacts well
beyond national boundaries, often with
global consequences.
This strategy focuses specifically on
those activities designed primarily to en-
hance o r protect the environment. How-
ever, USAID recognizes that other
issues, such as rapid population growth,
also affect the environment significantly,
although in complex and often indirect
ways.
Therefore, U SAID 's environment
programiscoord inated closely with the
agency's family planning program to en-
sure an integrated approach to address-
ing the complex relationship between
population growth rates and natural
resources management.
Strategic allocation of resources is a
basic requirement for an effective pro-
gram, because USAID simply cannot
address every problem in every country
it assists. USAID, therefore, is focusing
its resources on environmental
problems that most constrain develop-
ment and on those that, if
not
acted
upon immediately,willlikely resu lt in
significant th reats to hum an health or ir-
reversible damage to the natural
resource base and the
economy.
Th e
agency concen trates on problems that
host countries are committed to,
capable of addressing and have iden-
tified as priority issues.
1 Excerpt from the Executive Summary of
the U.S. Ag ency for International Development s
1992 Environmental Strategy. Public distribution
of this strategy began in January 1993. Individual
copies can be obtained by contacting the Office of
Policy Analysis and Resources Policy D irectorate,
Agency for International D evelopment, 320 21st
Street N.W., Room 3947, Washington, D. C 20523.
104
Foreign Policy Bulletin