Warn-on-ForecastParting Shots

David J. StensrudNOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory

SWOT Analysis

• Strengths• Weaknesses• Opportunities• Threats

• Just my perspective – Biased, imperfect

Strengths

Strengths

• Good results!

Strengths

• Good results!Largely independent of DA used,as long as it is designed for convective scale flow!

Strengths

• Good results!• Great staff

Strengths

• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships

cimms

Strengths

• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships

cimms

Strengths

• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships

cimms

Strengths

• Good results!• Great staff• Partnerships• Engaged with social sciences from outset

Weaknesses

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014$0.00

$500,000.00

$1,000,000.00

$1,500,000.00

$2,000,000.00

$2,500,000.00

$3,000,000.00

Warn-on-Forecast Funding

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O• This makes life particularly challenging

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Warn-on-Forecast still Research• Yet already having to address R2O• This makes life particularly challenging• Developing people as well as technology

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships• Focus on tornadic supercells

Weaknesses

• Insufficient funding• Computer resources• Project management• Partnerships• Focus on tornadic supercells• Social science connection

Opportunities

Opportunities

• Additional funding

Opportunities

• Additional funding• Seek our own funding• GOES-R support via SPC/NSSL

Opportunities

• Additional funding• NOAA planning• Radar Vision• NWS Roadmap• Radar Functional Requirements for 2030

Opportunities

• Additional funding• NOAA planning• Expanded partnerships• NCEP/EMC, WPC, AWC• SSD Chiefs• ROC, WDTB, JCSDA• Within NSSL and other partner groups

cimms

Threats

Threats

• NOAA bureaucracy

Threats

• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest

Threats

• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest• Ourselves

Threats

• NOAA bureaucracy• Too much focus on trees instead of the forest• Ourselves

Parting Shots

Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well

Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

• Partnerships intact

Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.

Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!

Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!

• New funding possible if we work together

Parting Shots

• WoF is doing very well• Weathered federal downturn

• Partnerships intact • Could use some attention.• All partners need to help with this!

• New funding possible if we work together• Biggest threat is ourselves

The hardest challenge in creating new technology is not eliminating uncertainty in advance but adapting to it as the work uncovers it.

Clay Shirky, Professor of New MediaNew York UniversityIn “The key to successful tech management”