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WOULDBANNINGFIREARMSREDUCEMURDERANDSUICIDE?
AREVIEWOFINTERNATIONALANDSOMEDOMESTICEVIDENCE
DONB.KATES*ANDGARYMAUSER**
INTRODUCTION ............................................................650 I. VIOLENCE:THEDECISIVENESSOF
SOCIALFACTORS ...................................................660 II. ASKINGTHEWRONGQUESTION ..........................662 III.DOORDINARYPEOPLEMURDER?........................665IV.MOREGUNS,LESSCRIME?....................................670 V. GEOGRAPHIC,HISTORICALANDDEMOGRAPHIC
PATTERNS...............................................................673 A. DemographicPatterns ..................................676B. MacrohistoricalEvidence:Fromthe
MiddleAgestothe20thCentury .................678C. LaterandMoreSpecificMacroHistorical
Evidence..........................................................684 D. GeographicPatternswithinNations..........685
*DonB.Kates(LL.B.,Yale,1966)isanAmericancriminologistandconstitutionallawyerassociatedwiththePacificResearchInstitute,SanFrancisco.Hemaybecontactedatdbkates@earthlink.net;3606662688;22608N.E.269thAve.,BattleGround,WA98604.**GaryMauser(Ph.D.,UniversityofCalifornia,Irvine,1970)isaCanadiancrimi
nologistanduniversityprofessoratSimonFraserUniversity,Burnaby,BCCanada.Hemaybe contacted atwww.garymauser.net,mauser@sfu.ca, and 6042913652.WegratefullyacknowledgethegenerouscontributionsofProfessorThomasB.Cole(UniversityofNorthCarolinaatChapelHill,SocialMedicineandEpidemiology);Chief SuperintendentColinGreenwood (WestYorkshireConstabulary, ret.);C.B.Kates;AbigailKohn (UniversityofSydney,Law);DavidB.Kopel (IndependenceInstitute); Professor Timothy D. Lytton (Albany Law School); Professor WilliamAlex Pridemore (University of Oklahoma, Sociology); Professor Randolph Roth(Ohio StateUniversity,History);ProfessorThomasVelk (McGillUniversity,EconomicsandChairmanof theNorthAmericanStudiesProgram);ProfessorRobert
Weisberg(Stanford
Law
School);
and
John
Whitley
(University
of
Adelaide,
Eco
nomics).Anymeritsofthispaperreflecttheiradviceandcontributions;errorsareentirelyours.
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E. GeographicComparisons:EuropeanGunOwnershipandMurderRates..........687
F. GeographicComparisons:GunOwnershipandSuicideRates ...........................................690
CONCLUSION ................................................................693 INTRODUCTION
Internationalevidenceandcomparisonshavelongbeenofferedasproofofthemantrathatmoregunsmeanmoredeathsandthatfewerguns, therefore,mean fewerdeaths.1Unfortunately, suchdiscussionsarealltoooftenbeenafflictedbymisconceptionsandfactualerrorandfocusoncomparisonsthatareunrepresentative.Itmaybeuseful tobeginwitha fewexamples.There isacompoundassertionthat(a)gunsareuniquelyavailableintheUnited
Statescomparedwithothermoderndevelopednations,whichiswhy (b) theUnited States hasby far the highestmurder rate.Thoughtheseassertionshavebeenendlesslyrepeated,statement(b)is,infact,falseandstatement(a)issubstantiallyso.Sinceatleast1965,thefalseassertionthattheUnitedStateshas
theindustrializedworldshighestmurderratehasbeenanartifactofpoliticallymotivatedSovietminimizationdesignedtohidethetruehomiciderates.2Sincewellbeforethatdate,theSovietUnion
1.See, e.g.,JOHNGODWIN,MURDERUSA:THEWAYSWEKILLEACHOTHER281(1978) (Areaswith thehighestproportionof gunowners alsoboast thehighesthomicide ratios; those with the fewest gun owners have the lowest.); N. PETESHIELDS,GUNSDONTDIE,PEOPLEDO64(1981)(quotingandendorsinganEnglishacademics remark:Wecannothelpbutbelieve thatAmericaought toshare thebasicpremiseofourgun legislationthat the availabilityof firearmsbreedsviolence.);Janice Somerville,Gun Control as Immunization, AM. MED.NEWS,Jan. 3,1994,at9 (quotingpublichealthactivistKatherineChristoffel,M.D.:Gunsareavirusthatmustbeeradicated....Getridoftheguns,getridofthebullets,andyougetridofthedeaths.);DeaneCalhoun,FromControversytoPrevention:BuildingEffective Firearm Policies, INJ. PROTECTION NETWORK NEWSL., Winter 198990, at 17([G]unsarenotjustan inanimateobject[sic],but infactareasocial ill.);seealsoWENDYCUKIER&VICTORW.SIDEL,THEGLOBALGUNEPIDEMIC:FROMSATURDAYNIGHTSPECIALSTOAK47S(2006);SusanBaker,WithoutGuns,DoPeopleKillPeople?75AM.J.PUB.HEALTH587 (1985);PaulCotton,GunAssociatedViolenceIncreasinglyViewedasPublicHealthChallenge,267J.AM.MED.ASSN1171(1992);DianeSchetky,ChildrenandHandguns:APublicHealthConcern,139AM.J.DIS.CHILD.229,230(1985);Lois A. Fingerhut &Joel C. Kleinman, International and Interstate Comparisons ofHomicidesAmongYoungMales,263J.AM.MED.ASSN3292,3295(1990).
2.See
William
Alex
Pridemore,
Using
Newly
Available
Homicide
Data
to
Debunk
Two
MythsAboutViolenceinanInternationalContext:AResearchNote,5HOMICIDESTUD.267(2001).
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possessedextremelystringentguncontrols3thatwereeffectuatedbyapolicestateapparatusprovidingstringentenforcement.4Sosuccessfulwas that regime that fewRussianciviliansnowhavefirearmsandveryfewmurdersinvolvethem.5Yet,manifestsuc
cess inkeeping itspeopledisarmeddidnotprevent the SovietUnionfromhavingfarandawaythehighestmurderrate inthedevelopedworld.6Inthe1960sandearly1970s,thegunlessSovietUnionsmurderratesparalleledorgenerallyexceededthoseofgunriddenAmerica.WhileAmericanratesstabilizedandthensteeplydeclined,however,Russianmurder increased sodrastically thatby the early 1990s the Russian ratewas three timeshigherthanthatoftheUnitedStates.Between19982004(thelatestfigureavailableforRussia),RussianmurderrateswerenearlyfourtimeshigherthanAmericanrates.Similarmurderratesalsocharacterize theUkraine,Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,andvariousothernowindependentEuropeannationsoftheformerU.S.S.R.7
Thus,in
the
United
States
and
the
former
Soviet
Union
transition
ingintocurrentdayRussia,homicideresultssuggestthatwhere
3.See GEORGE NEWTON & FRANKLIN ZIMRING, FIREARMS AND VIOLENCE INAMERICANLIFE:ASTAFFREPORTSUBMITTEDTOTHENATIONALCOMMISSIONONTHECAUSESANDPREVENTIONOFVIOLENCE119&n.3(1970).
4.Russian law flatly prohibits civilian possession ofhandguns and limits longguns to licensedhunters. Id.Formoreon thestringencyofenforcement,seeRaymondKessler,GunControlandPoliticalPower,5LAW&POLYQ.381,389(1983),andRandy E. Barnett & Don B. Kates,Under Fire: TheNew Consensus on the SecondAmendment,45EMORYL.J.1139,1239(1996)(notinganunusualfurtherelementofSovietgunpolicy:theSovietArmyadopteduniquefirearmcaliberssothat,evenifitssoldierscouldnotbepreventedfromreturningwithforeigngunsouvenirsfrom
foreignwars,ammunitionforthemwouldbeunavailableintheSovietUnion).5.SeePridemore,supranote2,at271.6.Russianhomicidedatagiveninthisarticle(foryears196599)werekindlysup
pliedusbyProfessorPridemorefromhisresearchinRussianministrysources(onfilewithauthors).SeealsoinfraTable1(reportingRussianhomicidedatafor2002).7.ThehighestU.S.homiciderateeverreportedwas10.5per100,000in1980.See
JefferyA.Miron,Violence,Guns,andDrugs:ACrossCountryAnalysis,44J.L.&ECON.615,62425tbl.1(2001).Asof2001,theratewasbelow6.Id.ThelatestratesavailablefortheUkraine,Belarus,andotherformerSovietnationsinEuropecomefromthemid1990s,whenallwerewellabove10andmostwere50%to150%higher.Id.NotethattheU.S.ratesgivenaboveareratesreportedbytheFBI.Therearetwo
differentsourcesofU.S.murderrates.TheFBImurderdata isbasedonreports itobtainsfrompoliceagenciesthroughoutthenation.Thesedataaresignificantlylesscompletethanthealternative(usedinthisarticleunlessotherwiseexplicitlystated)ratesoftheU.S.PublicHealthService,whicharederivedfromdatacollectedfrom
medicalexaminers
offices
nationwide.
Though
the
latter
data
are
more
comprehen
sive,andthePublicHealthServicemurderrateisslightlyhigher,theyhavethedisadvantageofbeingslowertoappearthantheFBIhomicidedata.
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gunsarescarceotherweaponsaresubstitutedinkillings.8WhileAmericangunownershipisquitehigh,Table1showsmanyotherdeveloped nations (e.g., Norway, Finland, Germany, France,Denmark) with high rates of gun ownership. These countries,
however,havemurder ratesas lowor lower thanmanydevelopednationsinwhichgunownershipismuchrarer.Forexample,Luxembourg,wherehandgunsaretotallybannedandownershipof any kind of gun isminimal, had amurder rate nine timeshigherthanGermanyin2002.9
Table1:EuropeanGunOwnershipandMurderRates(ratesgivenareper100,000peopleandindescendingorder)
Notes:This
table
covers
all
the
Continental
European
nations
for
which
the twodatasetsgivenarebothavailable. Ineverycase,wehavegiventhehomicidedata for2003ortheclosestyeartheretobecausethat is theyearofthepublicationfromwhichthegunownershipdataaretaken.Gunownership data comes from GRADUATE INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONALSTUDIES,SMALLARMSSURVEY64tbl.2.2,65tbl.2.3(2003).
The homicide rate data comes from an annually published report,CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA,JURISTAT,fortheyears20012004.Eachyearsreportgiveshomicidestatistics for adozen or so foreignnations in a section labeled HomicideRatesforSelectedCountries.Thissectionofthereportsgivesnoexplana
8.GARYKLECK,TARGETINGGUNS:FIREARMSANDTHEIRCONTROL20(1997)(discussingpatternsrevealedbystudiesintheUnitedStates).
9.Our
assertions
as
to
the
legality
of
handguns
are
based
on
COMMN
ON
CRIME
PREVENTION & CRIM. JUSTICE, U.N. ECON. & SOC. COUNCIL, UNITED NATIONSINTERNATIONALSTUDYONFIREARMSREGULATION26,tbl.21(1997draft).
Nation MurderRate RateofGunOwnership
Russia 20.54[2002] 4,000
Luxembourg 9.01[2002] c.0
Hungary 2.22[2003] 2,000
Finland 1.98[2004] 39,000
Sweden 1.87[2001] 24,000
Poland 1.79[2003] 1,500
France 1.65[2003] 30,000
Denmark 1.21[2003] 19,000
Greece 1.12[2003] 11,000
Switzerland 0.99[2003] 16,000
Germany 0.93[2003] 30,000
Norway 0.81[2001] 36,000
Austria 0.80[2002] 17,000
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tionofwhyitselectsthevariousnationswhosehomicidestatisticsitcovers. Also without explanation, the nations covered differ from year toyear.Thus,for instance,murderstatistics forGermanyandHungaryaregiven inall fourof thepamphlets (2001,2002,2003,2004), forRussia inthreeyears(2001,2002,and2004),forFranceintwoyears(2001and2003),
andfor
Norway
and
Sweden
in
only
one
year
(2001).
Thesamepatternappearswhencomparisonsofviolence togunownershiparemadewithinnations.Indeed,dataonfirearms ownershipby constabulary area in England, like datafromtheUnitedStates,showanegativecorrelation,10thatis,wherefirearmsaremostdenseviolentcrimeratesarelowest,andwhereguns are leastdenseviolent crime rates arehighest.11Manydifferentdata sets fromvariouskindsof sourcesaresummarizedasfollowsbytheleadingtext:
[T]here is no consistent significant positive associationbetween gun ownership levels and violence rates: across (1)
time
within
the
United
States,
(2)
U.S.
cities,
(3)
counties
within Illinois, (4) countrysized areas like England, U.S.states, (5) regions of the United States, (6) nations, or (7)populationsubgroups....12
AsecondmisconceptionabouttherelationshipbetweenfirearmsandviolenceattributesEuropesgenerally lowhomicide
10.JOYCE LEE MALCOLM, GUNS AND VIOLENCE: THE ENGLISH EXPERIENCE 204(2002).11.HansToch&AlanJ.Lizotte,ResearchandPolicy:TheCaseforGunControl, in
PSYCHOLOGY& SOCIALPOLICY 223, 232 (Peter Suedfeld&PhilipE.Tetlock eds.,1992);seealsoid.at234&n.10([T]hefactthatnationalpatternsshowlittleviolentcrimewheregunsaremostdenseimpliesthatgunsdonotelicitaggressioninany
meaningfulway....Quitethecontrary,thesefindingssuggestthathighsaturationsofgunsinplaces,orsomethingcorrelatedwiththatcondition,inhibitillegalaggression.).Approaching thematter fromadifferentdirection, theearliestdata (nineteenth
centuryon)revealsthattheAmericanjurisdictionswiththemoststringentguncontrolsare ingeneral theoneswiththehighestmurderrates.Conversely,Americanstateswithhomicideratesas lowasWesternEuropeshavehighgunownership,andimposenocontrolsdesignedtodenygunsto lawabiding,responsibleadults.Manypossible reasonsmaybeoffered for these two facts,butnonesuggests thatguncontrolreducesmurder.Forexaminationofawidevarietyofstudiesfindinglittleevidenceinsupportof
theefficacyofgun controls in reducingviolence, seeJAMESB.JACOBS,CANGUNCONTROLWORK?11120(2002);KLECK,supranote8,at35177;JOHNR.LOTT,JR.,MOREGUNS,LESSCRIME:UNDERSTANDING CRIMEANDGUNCONTROLLAWS1920(1998);JAMESD.WRIGHTETAL.,UNDERTHEGUN:WEAPONS,CRIMEANDVIOLENCE
IN
AMERICA
30708(1983);
MatthewR.
DeZee,
Gun
Control
Legislation:
Impact
and
Ideology,5LAW&POLYQ.367,36971(1983).12.KLECK,supranote8,at2223.
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ratestostringentguncontrol.Thatattributioncannotbeaccurate sincemurder inEuropewasatanalltime low before theguncontrolswereintroduced.13Forinstance,virtuallytheonlyEnglishguncontrolduringthenineteenthandearlytwentieth
centurieswas thepractice thatpolicepatrolledwithoutguns.DuringthisperiodguncontrolprevailedfarlessinEnglandorEurope than in certain American states which neverthelesshadand continue tohavemurder rates thatwere and arecomparativelyveryhigh.14Inthisconnection,tworecentstudiesarepertinent.In2004,
theU.S.NationalAcademyofSciencesreleased itsevaluationfromareviewof253journalarticles,99books,43governmentpublications,andsomeoriginalempiricalresearch. Itfailed toidentify anygun control thathad reducedviolent crime, suicide,orgun accidents.15The same conclusionwas reached in2003bytheU.S.CentersforDiseaseControlsreviewofthen
extantstudies.16
Stringent gun controls were not adopted in England andWesternEuropeuntil afterWorldWar I.Consistentwith theoutcomesoftherecentAmericanstudiesjustmentioned,thesestrictcontrolsdidnotstem thegeneral trendofevergrowingviolent crime throughout thepostWWII industrializedworldincluding theUnited States and Russia. ProfessorMalcolmsstudyofEnglishgun law andviolent crime summarizes that
13.Barnett&Kates,supranote4,at13842.14.Intheperiodbetween1900and1935,Arkansas,Hawaii,Michigan,Missouri,
NewJersey,NewYork,NorthCarolina,Oregon,andSouthCarolinaadoptedlawsvariouslyrequiringa license toownorbuyahandgunorbanninghandgunpurchasealtogether,andSaturdayNightSpecialtypebansexistedinTennessee,Arkansas, and various other Southern states.Don B.Kates,Jr., Toward aHistory ofHandgunProhibition in theUnitedStates, inRESTRICTINGHANDGUNS:THELIBERALSKEPTICSSPEAKOUT7,1415(DonB.Kates,Jr.ed.,1979).
15.CHARLES F. WELLFORD ET AL., NATL RESEARCH COUNCIL, FIREARMS ANDVIOLENCE:ACRITICALREVIEW610(2004).It isperhapsnotamisstonotethatthereviewpanel,whichwassetupduringtheClintonAdministration,wascomposedalmostentirelyofscholarswho,totheextenttheirviewswerepubliclyknownbeforetheirappointments,favoredguncontrol.16.TaskForceonCommunityPreventitiveServs.,Ctrs.forDiseaseControl,First
ReportsEvaluatingtheEffectivenessofStrategiesforPreventingViolence:FirearmsLaws,52MORTALITY&MORBIDITYWKLY.REP.(RR14RECOMMENDATIONS &REP.)11,16(2003), available at http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm.
TheCDC
is
vehemently
anti
gun
and
interpreted
its
results
to
show
not
that
the
moregunsequalmoredeathmantraiserroneous,butonlythatthescoresofstudiesitreviewedwereinconclusivelydone.
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nations nineteenth and twentieth century experience as follows:
ThepeacefulnessEnglandusedtoenjoywasnottheresultofstrictgun laws.When ithadno firearms restrictions [nine
teenthandearly twentieth century]Englandhad littleviolent crime,while thepresent extraordinarily stringent guncontrolshavenot stopped the increase inviolenceor eventheincreaseinarmedviolence.17
Armed crime,neveraproblem inEngland,hasnowbecomeone.HandgunsarebannedbuttheKingdomhasmillionsof illegal firearms.Criminalshaveno trouble findingthemandexhibitanewwillingnesstousethem.Inthedecadeafter1957, theuseofguns inseriouscrime increasedahundredfold.18
Inthelate1990s,Englandmovedfromstringentcontrolstoacompleteban of allhandguns andmany types of longguns.
Hundredsof
thousands
of
guns
were
confiscated
from
those
owners lawabiding enough to turn them in to authorities.Withoutsuggestingthiscausedviolence,thebans ineffectivenesswas such thatby theyear2000violent crimehad so increased thatEnglandandWaleshadEuropeshighestviolentcrimerate,farsurpassingeventheUnitedStates.19Today,English news media headline violence in terms redolent of thedoleful,melodramatic language that for so longcharacterizedAmerican news reports.20One aspect of Englands recent ex
17.MALCOLM,supranote10,at219.18.Id.at209.
19.SeeEstherBoutenetal.,CriminalVictimizationinSeventeenIndustrializedCountries, inCRIME VICTIMIZATION IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE: RESULTS FROM THEINTERNATIONALCRIMEVICTIMSSURVEY,19892000at13,1516(PaulNieuwbeertaed.,2002).Thesurveysinvolvedwereconductedundertheauspicesofthegovernmentsofeachnationand thegeneralsupervisionof theUniversityofLeidenandtheDutchMinistryofJustice.20.See, e.g., Gun Crime Growing Like Cancer, BBC NEWS, May 21, 2003,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/England/3043701.stm;DavidBamber,GunCrimeTreblesasWeaponsandDrugsFloodBritishCities,TELEGRAPHONLINE(London),Feb.27,2002,http://www.telegraoh.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2002/02/24/nguns24.xml; JasonBennetto,FirearmsAmnestytoTackleSurgeinGunCrime,INDEPENDENT(London),Dec.27,2002,at1; IanBurrell,PoliceMovetoTackleHugeRise inGunCrime,INDEPENDENT(London),Jan.15,2001,at3;DanielFoggo&CarlFellstrom,WeAreReelingwiththeMurders,WeAreinaCrisiswithMajorCrime,SUNDAYTELEGRAPH(London),Mar.13,2005,at4;JohannHari,TheBritishBecomeTriggerHappy,NEW
STATESMAN(London),
Nov.
5,
2001,
at
35;
Philip
Johnston,
Gun
Crime
Rises
Despite
DunblanePistolBan,DAILYTELEGRAPH(London),Jul.17,2001,at05;DavidLeppard&RachelDobson,MurderRateSoars toHighestforaCentury,SUNDAYTIMES (Lon
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periencedeservesnote,givenhowoftenand favorablyadvocateshavecomparedEnglishgunpolicytoitsAmericancounterpartover thepast35years.21Agenerallyunstated issue inthisnotoriouslyemotionaldebatewastheeffectoftheWarren
CourtandlaterrestrictionsonpolicepowersonAmericangunpolicy.Criticsof thesedecisionspointed to soaringAmericancrime rates and argued simplistically that such decisionscaused,orat leasthampered,police insuppressingcrime.Butto somesupportersof thesejudicialdecisions, theexampleofEnglandarguedthatthesolutiontocrimewastorestrictguns,notcivilliberties.Toguncontroladvocates,England,thecradleof our liberties,was anationmade sopeacefulby strictguncontrol that its police did not even need to carry guns. TheUnited States, it was argued, could attain such a desirablesituationby radically reducinggunownership,preferablybybanningandconfiscatinghandguns.
Theresults
discussed
earlier
contradict
those
expectations.
On
theonehand,despiteconstantandsubstantially increasinggunownership, theUnitedStates sawprogressive anddramatic reductionsincriminalviolenceinthe1990s.Ontheotherhand,thesame time period in the United Kingdom saw a constant anddramatic increase inviolent crime towhichEnglands responsewasevermoredrasticguncontrolincluding,eventually,banningand confiscating all handguns andmany types of long guns.22Nevertheless, criminal violence rampantly increased so thatby2000Englandsurpassed theUnitedStates tobecomeoneof thedevelopedworldsmostviolenceriddennations.
don),Oct.13,2002,at1;AdamMitchell,GunKillingsDoubleasPoliceClaimProgress,DAILYTELEGRAPH(London),Aug.17,2001,at13;JohnSteele,PoliceFearaNewCrimeWaveasSchoolAgeMuggersGraduate toGuns,DAILYTELEGRAPH (London),Jan.3,2002,at04;JonUngoedThomas,KillingsRiseas3mIllegalGunsFloodBritain,SUNDAYTIMES(London),Jan.16,2000;PeterWoolrich,BritainsToughGunControlLawsTermedTotalFailure:LandofHopeandGunrunning,PUNCHMAG.,May3,2000.21.See,e.g.,CARLBAKAL,THERIGHTTOBEARARMS1011,31,279(1966);RAMSEY
CLARK,CRIME INAMERICA10405,109 (1970);AMITAIETZIONI&RICHARDREMP,TECHNOLOGICALSHORTCUTSTOSOCIALCHANGE136 (1973);NatlCoalitiontoBanHandguns,AShootingGalleryCalledAmerica(undated,unpaginatedpamphlet);SHIELDS, supranote1,at6364; IrwinBloch,GunControlWouldReduceCrime, reprintedinWouldGunControlReduceCrime197(DavidBendered.,1989);RobertS.Drinan,BanningHandgunsWouldReduceCrime, reprinted inGUNS&CRIME 4546
(TararaRoleff
ed.,
1999).
22.MALCOLM,supranote10,at164216.Weshouldclarify that the twin trendstowardmoreviolentcrimeandmoreguncontrolbeganlongbeforethe1990s.Seeid.
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To conserve the resourcesof the inundated criminaljusticesystem,Englishpolicenolongerinvestigateburglaryandminorassaults.23Asof2006,ifthepolicecatchamugger,robber,orburglar,orotherminorcriminalintheact,thepolicyisto
releasethemwithawarningratherthantoarrestandprosecutethem.24 Itused tobe thatEnglishpolicevehementlyopposedthe ideaofarmedpolicing.Today,evermorepolicearebeingarmed. Justifying the assignment of armed squads to blockroadsandcarryoutrandomcarsearches,apolicecommanderasserts:Itisamassivedeterrenttogunmeniftheythinkthattherearegoingtobearmedpolice.25Howfaristhatfromtherationaleonwhich40Americanstateshaveenacted lawsgivingqualified,trainedcitizenstherighttocarryconcealedguns?Indeed,newsmediaeditorialshaveappearedinEnglandarguingthatciviliansshouldbeallowedgunsfordefense.26Thereiscurrently a vigorous controversy over proposals (which the
Blairgovernment
first
endorsed
but
now
opposes)
to
amend
the lawofselfdefensetoprotectvictimsfromprosecutionforusingdeadlyforceagainstburglars.27The divergencebetween the United States and the British
Commonwealth became especially pronounced during the
23.Daniel Foggo,Dont BotherAbout Burglary, Police Told, SUNDAY TELEGRAPH(LONDON),Jan.12,2003,at1(Policehavebeenorderednottobotherinvestigatingcrimes such asburglary, vandalism and assaultsunless evidencepointing to theculpritsiseasilyavailable,TheSundayTelegraphcanreveal.Undernewguidelines,officershavebeeninformedthatonly serious crimes,suchasmurder,rapeorsocalledhatecrimes,shouldbe investigatedasamatterofcourse.Inallothercases,unless there is immediateand compellingevidence, suchas fingerprintsorDNA
material,thecrimewillbelistedfornofurtheraction.).24.SteveDoughty,LetBurglarsOffWithCautionPoliceTold,DAILYMAIL(London),
Apr.3,2006,at4.25.Matthew Beard,Armed Police toMan Checkpoints in London asDrugRelated
CrimeSoars,INDEPENDENT(London),Sept.7,2002,at2.26SeeSimonHeffer, If theStateFailsUs,WeMustDefendOurselves,TELEGRAPH
ONLINE(London),Feb.24,2002,http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/ opinion/2002/02/24/do2401.xml; see also IanBell,DublaneMadeUsAllThinkAboutGunControl...SoWhatWentWrong?, SUNDAYHERALD (Scotland),Feb. 24, 2007,http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.1217778.0.dunblane_made_us_all_think_about_gun_control_so_what_went_wrong.php;Comment,TheNightMyDaughterWasStabbedAndMyLiberal InstinctsDied,DAILYMAIL (London),Mar. 5, 2007, http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/femail/article.html?in_ar ticle_id=440318&in_page_id=1766&ito=1490.27.SeeMelissaKite,ToriesLaunchBill toGiveHouseholders thePower toTackle In
truders,SUNDAY
TELEGRAPH
(London),
Dec.
26,
2004,
at
4;
see
also
Renee
Lerner,
The
WorldwidePopularRevoltAgainstProportionality inSelfDefenseLaw,2J.L.ECON.&POLY(2007).
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1980sand1990s.Duringthese twodecades,whileBritainandthe Commonwealth were making lawful firearm ownershipincreasinglydifficult,more than25states in theUnitedStatespassed laws allowing responsible citizens to carry concealed
handguns.Therearenow40stateswherequalifiedcitizenscanobtainsuchahandgunpermit.28Asaresult,thenumberofU.S.citizens allowed to carry concealed handguns in shoppingmalls,onthestreet,and intheircarshasgrownto3.5millionmenandwomen.29EconomistsJohnLottandDavidMustardhavesuggestedthatthesenewlawscontributedtothedropinhomicideandviolentcrime rates.Basedon25yearsofcorrelatedstatisticsfromallofthemorethan3,000Americancounties,LottandMustardconcludethatadoptionofthesestatuteshas deterred criminals from confrontation crime and causedmurder andviolent crime to fall faster in states that adoptedthispolicythaninstatesthatdidnot.30
28.InMarch2006,KansasandNebraskabecamethe39thand40thstates,respectively,topassshallissueconcealedcarrylegislation.InKansas,thestate legislaturevotedtooverturnthegovernorsvetoofthebipartisanlegislation.KansasHouseOverridesConcealedGunsBillVeto,DESERETMORNINGNEWS,Mar.24,2006. InNebraska, the governor signed the bill as passed by the state legislature. KevinOHanlon,ConcealedWeaponsBillAdopted,LINCOLNJOURNALSTAR,Mar.31,2006.
29.DonKates,TheLimitedImportanceofGunControlfromaCriminologicalPerspective,inSUINGTHEGUNINDUSTRY:ABATTLEATTHECROSSROADSOFGUNCONTROLANDMASSTORTS62,64(TimothyD.Lyttoned.,2005).30.SeeJohnR.LottJr.&DavidB.Mustard,Crime,Deterrence,andRighttoCarry
ConcealedHandguns,26J.LEGALSTUD.1,1(1997);seealsoJOHNR.LOTT,JR.,MOREGUNS,LESSCRIME19(2d.ed.2000).Thisconclusionisvehementlyrejectedbyantigunadvocatesandacademicswhoopposearmedselfdefense.See,e.g.,AlbertW.Alschuler,TwoGuns,FourGuns,SixGuns,MoreGuns:DoesArmingthePublicReduceCrime?,31VAL.U.L.REV.365,366(1997);IanAyres&JohnJ.DonohueIII,ShootingDowntheMoreGuns,LessCrimeHypothesis,55STAN.L.REV.1193,1197(2003);DanA.Black&DanielS.Nagin,DoRighttoCarryLawsDeterViolentCrime?,27J.LEGALSTUD.209,209 (1998);FranklinZimring&GordonHawkins,ConcealedHandguns:The CounterfeitDeterrent,RESPONSIVE COMMUNITY, Spring 1997, at 46;DanielW.Webster,TheClaimsThatRighttoCarryLawsReduceViolentCrimeAreUnsubstantiated(JohnsHopkinsCenterforGunPolicyandResearch,1997).SeveralcriticshavenowreplicatedLottsworkusingadditionalordifferentdata,
additional control variables, or new or different statistical techniques theydeemsuperiortothoseLottused.Interestingly,thereplicationsallconfirmLottsgeneralconclusions;someevenfindthatLottunderestimatedthecrimereductiveeffectsofallowinggoodcitizenstocarryconcealedguns.SeeJeffreyA.Miron,Violence,Guns,andDrugs:ACrossCountryAnalysis,44J.L.&ECON.615(2001);DavidB.Mustard,TheImpactofGunLawsonPoliceDeaths,44J.L.&ECON.635(2001);JohnR.Lott,Jr.&JohnE.Whitley,SafeStorageGunLaws:AccidentalDeaths,Suicides,andCrime,44J.L.
&ECON.
659
(2001);
Thomas
B.
Marvell,
The
Impact
of
Banning
Juvenile
Gun
Posses
sion,44J.L.&ECON.691(2001);JeffreyS.Parker,Guns,Crime,andAcademics:SomeReflectionsontheGunControlDebate,44J.L.&ECON.715(2001);BruceL.Benson&
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Asindicatedintheprecedingfootnote,thenotionthatmoreguns reduce crime is highly controversial. What the controversyhasobscuredfromviewisthecorrosiveeffectoftheLottand Mustard work on the tenet that more guns equal more
murder.Aspreviously stated, adoption of state lawspermittingmillionsofqualifiedcitizenstocarrygunshasnotresultedinmoremurderorviolentcrimeinthesestates.Rather,adoptionofthesestatuteshasbeenfollowedbyverysignificantreductionsinmurderandviolenceinthesestates.To determine whether this expansion of gun availability
caused reductions inviolent crime requires takingaccountofvarious other factors thatmight alsohave contributed to thedecline.For instance,twoofLottsmajorcritics,DonohueandLevitt,attributemuchofthedropinviolentcrimethatstartedin1990stothelegalizationofabortioninthe1970s,whichtheyargue resulted in the nonbirth of vast numbers of children
whowould
have
been
disproportionately
involved
in
violent
crimehadtheyexistedinthe1990s.31The LottMustard studies did not address the Donohue
Levittthesis.LottandMustarddidaccount,however,fortwopeculiarlyAmericanphenomenawhichmanypeoplebelievedmayhavebeen responsible for the1990scrime reduction: thedramatic increase of theUnitedStatesprisonpopulation andthenumberofexecutions.TheprisonpopulationintheUnitedStates tripledduring this timeperiod,jumping fromapproximately100prisonersper100,000inthelate1970stomorethan300per100,000people in thegeneralpopulation in the early1990s.32 In addition, executions in the United States soared
Brent D. Mast, Privately Produced GeneralDeterrence, 44J.L. & ECON. 725 (2001);DavidE.Olson&MichaelD.Maltz,RighttoCarryConcealedWeaponLawsandHomicideinLargeU.S.Counties:TheEffectonWeaponTypes,VictimCharacteristics,andVictimOffender Relationships, 44 J.L. & ECON. 747 (2001); Florenz Plassmann & T.Nicolaus Tideman, Does the Right to Carry Concealed Handguns Deter CountableCrimes?OnlyaCountAnalysisCanSay,44J.L.&ECON.771(2001);CarlisleE.Moody,TestingfortheEffectsofConcealedWeaponsLaws:SpecificationErrorsandRobustness,44J.L.&ECON.799(2001);seealsoFlorenzPlassman&JohnWhitley,ConfirmingMoreGuns,LessCrime,55STAN.L.REV.1313,1316 (2003). In2003,Lott reiteratedandextendedhisfindings,whichweresubsequentlyendorsedbythreeNobellaureates.SeeJOHNR.LOTT,JR.,THEBIASAGAINSTGUNS(2003).
31.SeeJohnJ.DonohueIII&StevenD.Levitt,TheImpactofLegalizedAbortiononCrime,116Q.J.ECON.379(2001).32.SeeBureauofJusticeStatistics,KeyFactsataGlance:IncarcerationRate,1980
2004(Oct.
23,
2005),
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/incrttab.htm,
citing
ALLEN BECK & PAIGE HARRISON, BUREAU OFJUSTICE STATISTICS,CORRECTIONALPOPULATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES 1997 (2000), available at
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660 HarvardJournalofLaw&PublicPolicy [Vol.30
fromapproximately5peryearintheearly1980stomorethan27peryear in theearly1990s.33Neitherof these trends is reflectedinCommonwealthcountries.Althoughthereasonisthusobscured,theundeniableresult
is that violent crime, and homicide in particular, has plummeted intheUnitedStatesoverthepast15years.34Thefall intheAmerican crime rate is evenmore impressivewhen comparedwiththerestoftheworld.In18ofthe25countriessurveyed by the British Home Office, violent crime increasedduring the 1990s.35 This contrast should induce thoughtfulpeople to wonder what happened in those nations, and toquestionpoliciesbasedonthenotionthatintroducingincreasinglymorerestrictive firearmownership lawsreducesviolentcrime.Perhaps theUnited States isdoing something right inpromotingfirearmsforlawabidingresponsibleadults.Orperhaps theUnited States success in lowering its violent crime
raterelates
to
increasing
its
prison
population
or
its
death
sen
tences.36Furtherresearchisrequiredtoidentifymorepreciselywhich elements of theUnited States approach are themostimportant,orwhetherallthreeelementsactinginconcertwerenecessarytoreduceviolentcrimes.
I. VIOLENCE:THEDECISIVENESSOFSOCIALFACTORSOnereasontheextentofgunownershipinasocietydoesnot
spur themurder rate is thatmurderersarenotspreadevenlythroughout the population. Analysis of perpetrator studiesshows that violent criminalsespecially murderersalmost
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cpus97.pdf, and ALLEN BECK & PAIGEHARRISON, BUREAU OFJUSTICE STATISTICS, PRISONERS IN 2004 (2005), available athttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/p04.pdf.).33.THOMAS BONCZAR & TRACY L. SNELL, BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS
BULLETIN,CAPITALPUNISHMENT2003,(2004),availableathttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/pub/pdf/cp03.pdf.
34.See generally FBI, VIOLENT CRIME, http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/offenses/violent_crime/index.html;FBI,CRIMEINTHEUNITEDSTATESBYVOLUMEANDRATEPER100,000INHABITANTS,19862005,http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/05cius/data/table_01.html. 35.SeeGordonBarclayetal.,InternationalComparisonsofCriminalJusticeStatistics
1999,HOMEOFFICESTAT.BULL.(ResearchDevelopmentandStatistics,U.K.HomeOffice, London, U.K.), 2001, available at http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs/hosb601.pdf.36.Severalrecentstudiesbyeconomistscalculate thateachexecutiondeters the
commissionof
19
murders.
See
Cass
R.
Sunstein
&
Adrian
Vermuele,
Is
Capital
Pun
ishmentMorallyRequired?Acts,Omissions,andLifeLifeTradeoffs,58STAN.L.REV.703(2005).
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uniformlyhavealonghistoryofinvolvementincriminalbehavior.37 So it would not appreciably raise violence if all lawabiding,responsiblepeoplehadfirearmsbecausetheyarenottheoneswhorape,rob,ormurder.38Bythesametoken,violent
crimewouldnotfallifgunsweretotallybannedtocivilians.Asthe respectiveexamplesofLuxembourgandRussia suggest,39individualswho commit violent crimeswill either find gunsdespiteseverecontrolsorwillfindotherweaponstouse.40Startlingastheforegoingmayseem, itrepresents thecross
nationalnorm,notsomebizarredeparturefromit.Ifthemantra more guns equalmoredeath and fewerguns equal lessdeath were true, broad based crossnational comparisonsshouldshowthatnationswithhighergunownershippercapita consistently have more death. Nations with higher gunownershiprates,however,donothavehighermurderorsuicideratesthanthosewithlowergunownership.Indeedmany
highgun
ownership
nations
have
much
lower
murder
rates.
Consider, for example, the wide divergence in murder ratesamong Continental European nations with widely divergentgunownershiprates.The noncorrelationbetween gun ownership andmurder
is reinforcedby examination of statistics from larger numbersofnations across thedevelopedworld.Comparisonofhomicide and suicidemortality data for thirtysix nations(including the United States) for the period 19901995 togun ownership levels showed no significant (at the 5%level)associationbetweengunownership levelsand the totalhomiciderate.41Consistentwiththis isa laterEuropean
studyof
data
from
21
nations
in
which
no
significant
corre
lations[ofgunownershiplevels]withtotalsuicideorhomiciderateswerefound.42
37.SeeDelbertS.Elliott,LifeThreateningViolence isPrimarilyaCrimeProblem:AFocusonPrevention,69COLO.L.REV.1081,1089(1998)(emphasisadded).38.SeeinfraPartIII.39.Seesupranotes39andTable1.40.SeesupraTable1andinfraTables23.
41.KLECK, supranote 8, at 254.The study also foundno correlation to suiciderates.Id.42.MartinKilliasetal.,Guns,ViolentCrime,andSuicidein21Countries,43CAN.J.
CRIMINOLOGY&
CRIM.
JUST.
429,
430
(2001).
It
bears
emphasis
that
the
authors,
who
aredeeplyantigun,emphasizetheverystrongcorrelationsbetweenthepresenceofgunsinthehomeandsuicidecommittedwithagunasifthereweresomeimport
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II. ASKINGTHEWRONGQUESTIONHowever unintentionally, the irrelevance of focusing on
weaponry ishighlightedby the mostcommon theme in the
moreguns
equal
more
death
argument.
Epitomizing
this
themeisaWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)reportasserting, The easy availability of firearms hasbeen associatedwithhigherfirearmmortalityrates.43Theauthors, innotingthatthepresenceofaguninahomecorrespondstoahigherrisk of suicide, apparently assume that if denied firearms,potential suicideswilldecide to live rather than turning tothenumerousalternativesuicidemechanisms.Theevidence,however, indicates that denying one particular means topeoplewhoaremotivated tocommitsuicidebysocial,economic,cultural,orothercircumstances simplypushes themtosomeothermeans.44Thus,itisnotjustthemurderratein
gunless
Russia
that
is
four
times
higher
than
the
American
rate;theRussiansuiciderateisalsoaboutfourtimeshigherthantheAmericanrate.45
tothedeathbeingbygunratherthanbyhanging,poison,orsomeothermeans.Id.;seealsoinfraPartIII.
43.WORLDHEALTHORGANIZATION,SMALLARMSANDGLOBALHEALTH11(2001)(emphasisadded).This irrelevancy isendlessly repeated.See, e.g.,WendyCukier,SmallArmsandLightWeapons:APublicHealthApproach,9BROWNJ.WORLDAFF.261,266,267(2002)(Researchhasshownthatratesofsmallarmsdeathand injuryarelinked to small arms accessibility....In industrialized countries, studies haveshownthataccessibilityisrelatedtofirearmdeathrates....Otherapproacheshaveexamined theratesofdeathfromfirearmsacrossregions,cities,high incomecountries, and respondents tovictimization surveys. (emphasis added) (internal cita
tionsomitted);seealsoNeilArya,Confronting theSmallArmsPandemic324BRITISHMED.J.990(2002);E.G.Krugetal.,FirearmRelatedDeathsintheUnitedStatesand35OtherHighandUpperMiddleIncomeCountries,27INTLJ.EPIDEMIOLOGY214(1988).44.SeeJACOBS, supranote11,at120 ([I]f theBradyLawdidhave theeffectof
modestlyreducing firearmssuicides...thiseffectwascompletelyoffsetbyan increaseofthesamemagnitudeinnonfirearmsuicideresultinginthesamenumberofdeaths);seealsoKLECK,supranote8,at26592(summarizingandreviewingstudiesregardinggunsandsuicide).Indeed,thoughwithoutnotingthesignificance,theWHOreportstatesthatoutofsampleof52countries,firearmsaccountedforonlyonefifthofallsuicides,justaheadofpoisoning....[Self]strangulation,[i.e.hanging] was the most frequently used method of suicide. WORLD HEALTHORGANIZATION,supranote43,at3.45.In1999,thelatestyearforwhichwehaveRussiandata,theAmericansuicide
ratewas10.7per100,000people,whiletheRussiansuicideratewasalmost41per100,000people.WilliamAlexPridemore&AndrewL. Spivak,Patterns ofSuicide
Mortalityin
Russia,
33
SUICIDE
&
LIFE
THREATENING
BEHAVIOR
132,
133
(2003);
DonnaL.Hoyertetal.,Deaths:FinalDatafor1999,NATLVITALSTAT.REP.,Sept.21,2001,at6.
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There isno socialbenefit indecreasing theavailabilityofgunsiftheresultisonlytoincreasetheuseofothermeansofsuicide and murder, resulting in more or less the sameamountofdeath.Elementaryas thispoint is,proponents of
themoregunsequalmoredeathmantraseemoblivioustoit.OnestudyassertsthatAmericansaremore likelytobeshottodeath thanpeople in theworlds other 35wealthier nations.46 While this is literally true, it is irrelevantexcept, perhapstopeopleterrifiednotofdeathpersebutjust deathby gunshot. A fact that shouldbe of greater concernbutwhich thestudy fails tomentionis thatpercapitamurderoverallisonlyhalfasfrequentintheUnitedStatesasinseveralothernationswheregunmurderisrarer,butmurderbystrangling,stabbing,orbeatingismuchmorefrequent.47Ofcourse, itmaybespeculated thatmurderratesaround
theworldwouldbehigher ifgunsweremoreavailable.But
thereis
simply
no
evidence
to
support
this.
Like
any
specu
lation, it isnotsubject toconclusivedisproof;but theEuropeandatainTable1andthestudiesacross36and21nationsalreadydiscussed show no correlation of high gun ownership nations and greater murder per capita or lower gunownershipnationsandlessmurderpercapita.48To reiterate, the determinants ofmurder and suicide are
basic social, economic, and cultural factors, not the prevalenceofsomeformofdeadlymechanism.Inthisconnection,recallthattheAmericanjurisdictionswhichhavethe highestviolent crime rates areprecisely thosewith themost stringent gun controls.49 This correlation does not necessarily
46.SeeKrugetal.,supranote42,at21819.47.Id.at216.Twoofthosenations,BrazilandEstonia,hadmorethantwicethe
overallmurder rates of theUnited States.DavidC. Stolinsky,America:TheMostViolentNation?,5MED.SENTINEL199,200(2000).ReadersmayquestionthevalueofcomparingtheUnitedStatestothoseparticularnations;however,thiscomparisonwasfirstsuggestedbyKrug.Krugetal.,supranote43,at215(usingthirtysixcountries,havingamongthehighestGNPpercapitaaslistedintheWorldBanks1994WorldDevelopmentReport).Allwehavedoneisprovidefullmurderrateinformationforthesecomparisons.48.KLECK,supranote8,at254;Killiasetal.,supranote41,at430.49.Seeinfranotes12830andaccompanyingtext.Foratleastthirtyyears,gunad
vocateshave echoed inmore or less identical terms the observation that twentypercentofAmericanhomicide isconcentrated infourcitieswiththenationsmost
restrictivegun
laws.
See
Firearms
Legislation:
Hearing
Before
the
Subcomm.
on
Crime
of
theH.Comm.on theJudiciary,94thCong.2394 (1975) (statementofNealKnox). InOctober 2000, the head of a gun advocacy group ridiculed a Handgun Control
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prove gun advocates assertion that gun controls actuallyencourage crimebydeprivingvictimsof themeansof selfdefense.Theexplanationofthiscorrelationmaybepoliticalratherthancriminological:jurisdictionsafflictedwithviolent
crime tend to severely restrict gun ownership. This, however,doesnot suppress thecrime, forbanninggunscannotalleviatethesocioculturalandeconomicfactorsthataretherealdeterminants ofviolenceandcrimerates.50
Table2:MurderRatesofEuropeanNationsthatBanHandgunsasComparedtoTheirNeighborsthatAllowHandguns
(ratesareper100,000persons)
Nation HandgunPolicy MurderRate Year
A.Belarus banned 10.40 late1990s[Neighboringcountrieswithgunlawandmurderratedataavailable]
Poland
allowed
1.98
2003
Russia banned 20.54 2002
B.Luxembourg banned 9.01 2002[Neighboringcountrieswithgunlawandmurderratedataavailable]
Belgium allowed 1.70 late1990sFrance allowed 1.65 2003Germany allowed 0.93 2003
C.Russia banned 20.54 2002[Neighboringcountrieswithgunlawandmurderratedataavailable]
Finland allowed 1.98 2004Norway allowed 0.81 2001
Notes:This tablecoversall theEuropeannations forwhich the infor
mation given is available.As in Table 1, thehomicide ratedata comesfrom an annually published report, CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICESTATISTICS,HOMICIDEINCANADA,JURISTAT.
Once again, we are not arguing that the data in Table 2shows that gun control causes nations to have much higher
scorecardforitsmisleadingattemptstoinverselycorrelateviolentcrimeratestotheextentofthevariousstatesguncontrols.Hepointsoutthat, infact,thestateswiththemostrestrictivegunlawsconsistentlyhavehighermurderratesthanstateswith lessrestrictive laws,whilethosewiththeleastcontrolshadthelowesthomicide rates.LarryPratt,HCIScorecard (2000),http://gunowners.org/op0042.htm; seealsoinfranote131.
50.It
is
noteworthy
that
the
correlation
between
more
gun
control
and
more
crime
seemstoholdtrueinothernations,thoughmuchlessstrikinglythanintheUnitedStates.SeeMiron,supranote30,at628.
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murder rates than neighboring nations that permit handgunownership.Rather,we assert apolitical causation for theobservedcorrelationthatnationswithstringentguncontrolstendto have much higher murder rates than nations that allow
guns.The political causation is that nationswhich have violenceproblemstendtoadoptsevereguncontrols,butthesedonot reduce violence, which is determined by basic socioculturalandeconomicfactors.Thepoint is exemplifiedby the conclusions of thepremier
studyofEnglishguncontrol.DonebyaseniorEnglishpoliceofficial as his thesis at theCambridgeUniversity Institute ofCriminologyandlaterpublishedasabook,itfound(asoftheearly 1970s), Half a century of strict controls...has ended,perversely,witha fargreateruseof[handguns] incrimethaneverbefore.51Thestudyalsostatesthat:
Nomatterhowoneapproachesthefigures,oneisforcedto
the rather startling conclusion that the use of firearms incrimewas verymuch less [inEnglandbefore 1920]whentherewereno controlsof any sort andwhen anyone, convicted criminal or lunatic, couldbuy any type of firearmwithoutrestriction.52
Ofcoursethepointofthisanalysisisnotthatthelawshouldallowlunaticsandcriminalstoownguns.Thepointisthatviolencewillberarewhen thebasicsocioculturalandeconomicdeterminants sodictate;andconversely, crimewill rise in response to changes in those determinantswithout much regard to themere availabilityof someparticularweaponryortheseverityoflawsagainstit.
III. DOORDINARYPEOPLEMURDER?Themoregunsequalmoredeathmantraseemsplausible
onlywhenviewedthroughtherubricthatmurdersmostly involveordinarypeoplewhokillbecause theyhaveaccess toafirearmwhen theygetangry. If thiswere true,murdermightwell increasewherepeoplehavereadyaccess to firearms,butthe available dataprovides no such correlation.Nations and
51.COLIN
GREENWOOD,
FIREARMS
CONTROL:
A
STUDYOF
ARMED
CRIMEAND
FIREARMSCONTROLINENGLANDANDWALES243(1972).52.Id.
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666 HarvardJournalofLaw&PublicPolicy [Vol.30
areaswithmoregunsper capitado nothavehighermurderratesthanthosewithfewergunspercapita.53Nevertheless, critics of gun ownership often argue that a
gunintheclosettoprotectagainstburglarswillmostlikelybe
usedtoshootaspouseinamomentofrage....Theproblemisyouandmelawabidingfolks;54thatbanninghandgunpossessiononlyforthosewithcriminalrecordswillfailtoprotectusfromthemostlikelysourceofhandgunmurder:ordinarycitizens;55 that mostgunrelatedhomicides...are the resultofimpulsive actions taken by individuals who have little or nocriminal background orwho are known to the victims;56 thatthemajorityoffirearmhomicide[soccur]...notastheresultofcriminalactivity,butbecauseofargumentsbetweenpeoplewhoknoweachother;57thateachyeartherearethousandsofgunmurdersby lawabidingcitizenswhomighthave stayedlawabidingiftheyhadnotpossessedfirearms.58
Thesecommentsappeartorestonnoevidenceandactuallycontradictfacts thathavesouniformlybeenestablishedbyhomicidestudiesdatingbacktothe1890sthattheyhavebecomecriminological axioms.59 Insofar as studies focus on perpetrators, theyshowthatneitheramajority,normany,norvirtuallyanymurderersareordinarylawabiding citizens.60Rather,almostallmurderers are extremely aberrant individuals with life histories ofviolence,psychopathology,substanceabuse,andotherdangerousbehaviors. The vast majority of persons involved in lifethreateningviolencehavealongcriminalrecordwithmanypriorcontactswiththejusticesystem.61Thushomicide[whether]ofa
53.SeesupraTables12andnotes1015;seeinfraTable3andnotes125127.54.DavidKairys,ACarnageintheNameofFreedom,PHILADELPHIAINQUIRER,Sept.
12,1988,atA15(emphasisadded),quotedinFrankJ.Vandall,APreliminaryConsiderationofIssuesRaisedintheFirearmsSellersImmunityBill,38AKRONL.REV.113,118n.28(2005).55.NicholasDixon,WhyWeShouldBanHandgunsintheUnitedStates,12ST.LOUIS
U.PUB.L.REV.243,26566(1993)(emphasisadded),quotedinVandall,supranote54,at119,n.32.56.ROBERTJ.SPITZER,THEPOLITICSOFGUNCONTROL147(3rded.1995)(empha
sisadded).57.ViolencePolicyCenter,WhoDies?ALookatFirearmsDeathand Injury in
America,http://www.vpc.org/studies/whointro.htm(lastvisitedNov.17,2006).58.NatlCoalitiontoBanHandguns,supranote21(emphasisadded).59.SeeDavidM.Kennedy&AnthonyJ.Braga,Homicide inMinneapolis:Research
forProblem
Solving,
2
HOMICIDE
STUD.
263,
267
(1998).
60.SeeElliott,supranote37,at1093.61.Id.
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strangeror[of]someoneknowntotheoffenderisusuallypartofapatternofviolence,engagedinbypeoplewhoareknown...asviolenceprone.62Thoughonly15%ofAmericansovertheageof15havearrestrecords,63approximately90percentofadultmur
derershave adult records,with an average adult criminal career[involvingcrimescommittedasanadultratherthanachild]ofsixormoreyears, including fourmajoradult felonyarrests.64Thesenational statistics dovetail with data from local nineteenth andtwentiethcenturystudies.Forexample:victimsaswellasoffenders[in1950sand1960sPhiladelphiamurders]...tendedtobepeoplewith priorpolice records, usually for violent crimes such as assault.65 The greatmajority ofbothperpetrators andvictims of[1970sHarlem]assaultsandmurdershadprevious[adult]arrests,probablyover80%ormore.66Bostonpoliceandprobationofficersin the 1990s agreed that of those juvenileperpetrated murderswhereall the factswereknown,virtuallyallwerecommittedby
gangmembers,
though
the
killing
was
not
necessarily
gang
directed.67Oneexamplewouldbeagangmemberwhostabshisgirlfriendtodeathinafitofanger.68Regardlessoftheirarrestsforothercrimes,80%of1997Atlantamurderarresteeshadatleastoneearlier drug offensewith 70% having 3 ormore prior drug offenses.69ANewYorkTimesstudyofthe1,662murderscommittedinthatcityintheyears20032005foundthat[m]orethan90percentofthekillershadcriminalrecords.70Baltimorepolicefiguresshowthat92percentofmurdersuspectshad[prior]criminalrecordsin2006.71Severalofthemorerecenthomicidestudiesjustreviewed
62.GERALDD.ROBIN,VIOLENTCRIMEANDGUNCONTROL48(1991)(quotingGary
Kleck,
The
Assumptions
of
Gun
Control,
in
FIREARMSAND
VIOLENCE
23,
43
(Don
B.
Katesed.,1984)).63.MarkCooney,TheDeclineofEliteHomicide,35CRIMINOLOGY381,386(1997).64.GARYKLECK&DONB.KATES,ARMED:NEWPERSPECTIVESONGUNCONTROL
20(2001).65.ROGERLANE,MURDERINAMERICA:AHISTORY259(1997).66.A.SWERSKEY&E.ENLOE,HOMICIDEINHARLEM17(1975).67.AnthonyA.Bragaetal.,YouthHomicideinBoston:AnAssessmentofSupplemen
taryHomicideReportData,3HOMICIDESTUDIES277,28384(1999).68.Seeid.69.Dean G. Rojek, The Homicide and Drug Connection, in THE VARIETIES OF
HOMICIDEANDITSRESEARCH:PROCEEDINGSOFTHE1999MEETINGOFTHEHOMICIDERESEARCHWORKINGGROUP128(P.H.Blackmanetal.eds.,2000)[hereinafterTHEVARIETIESOFHOMICIDE].70.JoCravenMcGinty,NewYorkKillers, andThoseKilled, by theNumbers,N.Y.
TIMES,April
28,
2006,
at
A1.
71.GusG.Sentementes,PatternsPersist inCityKillings,BALTIMORESUN,Jan.1,2007,atA1.
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weredoneattheKennedySchoolofGovernmentatHarvardandfoundalmostallarrestedmurdererstohaveearlierarrests.72That murderers are not ordinary, lawabiding responsible
adults is further documented in other sources. Psychological
studiesofjuvenilemurderersvariouslyfindthatatleast80%,ifnotall,arepsychoticorhavepsychoticsymptoms.73OfMassachusettsdomesticmurderersintheyears19911995,73.7%hadaprior[adult]criminalhistory,16.5%hadanactiverestrainingorderregisteredagainstthemat the timeof thehomicide,and46.3%oftheviolentperpetratorshadhadarestrainingordertakenoutagainstthemsometimebeforetheircrime.74This laststudy isoneofmanyexposing the falseargument
thatasignificantnumberofmurders involveordinarypeoplekillingspousesinamomentofrage.Althoughtherearemanydomestichomicides, suchmurdersdonotoccur frequently inordinaryfamilies,norarethemurderersordinary,lawabiding
adults.Thedaytodayrealityisthatmostfamilymurdersareprefacedby a long history of assaults.75One study of suchmurders found that ahistoryofdomesticviolencewaspresentin95.8%ofcases.76Thesefindingsarearoutinefeatureofdomestic homicide studies: [domestic] partner homicide ismost often the final outcome of chronicwomenbattering;77basedonastudyfromKansasCity,90%ofallthefamilyhomi
72.AnthonyA.Bragaetal.,UnderstandingandPreventingGangViolence:ProblemAnalysis andResponseDevelopment in Lowell,Massachusetts, 9 POLICE Q. 20, 2931(2006)(Some95%ofhomicideoffenders,82%ofaggravatedassaultoffenders,65%
ofhomicidevictims,and45%ofaggravatedgunassaultvictimswerearraignedatleastonce inMassachusettscourtsbefore theycommitted theircrimeorwerevictimized.Individualsthatwerepreviouslyknowntothecriminaljusticesystemwereinvolved in a wide variety of offenses and, on average, committed many priorcrimes....Onaverage,aggravatedgunassaultoffendershadbeenarraignedfor12prioroffenses,homicideoffendershadbeenarraignedfor9prioroffenses....).
73.WadeC.Myers&KerrilynScott,PsychoticandConductDisorderSymptoms inJuvenileMurderers,2HOMICIDESTUD.160,16162(1998).
74.LindaLangfordetal.,CriminalandRestrainingOrderHistoriesofIntimatePartnerRelated Homicide Offenders in Massachusetts, 19911995, in THE VARIETIES OFHOMICIDE,supranote69,at51,55,59.75.MurrayA. Straus,DomesticViolence andHomicideAntecedents, 62BULL.N.Y.
ACAD.MED.446,454(1986);seealsoMurrayA.Straus,MedicalCareCostsofIntrafamilyAssaultandHomicide,62BULL.N.Y.ACAD.MED.556,557(1986).76.PaigeHallSmithetal.,PartnerHomicideinContext,2HOMICIDESTUD.400,410
(1998)(reporting
cases
only
where
there
was
sufficient
background
information
on
theparties).77.Id.at411.
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cideswereprecededbypreviousdisturbancesatthesameaddress,withamedianof5callsperaddress.78The only kind of evidence cited to support the myth that
most murderers are ordinary people is that many murders
arisefromargumentsoroccurinhomesandbetweenacquaintances.79Thesebare factsareonlyrelevant ifoneassumes thatcriminalsdonothave acquaintancesorhomes or arguments.Of the many studies belying this, the broadest analyzed ayearsnationaldataongunmurdersoccurring inhomes andbetween acquaintances. It found the most common victimoffender relationshipwas wherebothparties ...knew oneanotherbecauseofpriorillegaltransactions.80Thusthetermacquaintancehomicidedoesnotrefersolely
tomurdersbetweenordinaryacquaintances.Rather itencompasses,forexample:drugdealerskilledbycompetitorsorcustomers,gangmemberskilledbymembersofthesameorrival
gangs,andwomenkilledbystalkersorabuserswhohavebrutalizedthemonearlieroccasions,allindividualsforwhomfederalandstatelawsalreadyprohibitgunpossession.81Obviously there are certain people who should notbe al
lowedtoownanydeadlyinstrument.Reasonableassuchprohibitionsare,itisunrealistictothinkthosepeoplewillcomplywithsuchrestrictionsanymorereadilythantheydowithlawsagainst violent crime.82 In any event, studies analyzing ac
78.ROBIN,supranote62,at4748;seealsoKathrynE.Moraccoetal.,Femicide inNorthCarolina,19911993,2HOMICIDESTUD.422,441(1998).79.See, e.g.,SPITZER, supranote56;JeremiahA.Barondess,Letter to theEditor,
FirearmViolenceandPublicHealth,272J.AM.MED.ASSN1406,1409(1994)(respondingtocriticismofhisarticle,KarlP.Adleretal.,FirearmViolenceandPublicHealth:Limiting theAvailability ofGuns,271J.AM.MED.ASSN1281 (1994));Kairys, supranote54.80.KLECK,supranote8,at236(analyzingtheU.S.BureauofJusticeStatisticsdata
onmurderdefendantsbeingprosecutedin33U.S.urbancounties).
81.Current federal lawprohibits gunpossessionbyminors,drug addicts, andpersonswhohavebeeninvoluntarilycommittedtomentalinstitutionsorconvictedoffeloniesordomesticviolencemisdemeanors.18U.S.C. 922(g)(2000).Astostategunlaws,see,forexample,CAL.PENALCODE 12021,12072,12101,12551(Deering2006).Forasummaryofthegeneralpatternsoffederalandstategunlaws,seeJACOBS,supranote11,at1935.
82.SeeWRIGHTETAL.,supranote11,at13738([T]hereisnogoodreasontosupposethatpeopleintentonarmingthemselvesforcriminalpurposeswouldnotbeabletodosoevenifthegeneralavailabilityoffirearmstothelargerpopulationwere
sharplyrestricted.
Here
itmay
be
appropriate
to
recall
the
First
Law
of
Economics,
a
lawwhoseoperationhasbeensharplyinevidenceinthecaseofProhibition,marijuanaandotherdrugs,prostitution,pornography,andahostofotherbannedarti
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670 HarvardJournalofLaw&PublicPolicy [Vol.30
quaintancehomicide suggest there isno reason for lawsprohibitinggunpossessionby ordinary, lawabiding responsibleadultsbecausesuchpeoplevirtuallynevermurder. Ifoneacceptsthatsuchadultsarefarmore likelytobevictimsofvio
lentcrimethantocommitit,disarmingthembecomesnotjustunproductivebutcounterproductive.83
IV. MOREGUNS,LESSCRIME?Antigunactivistsarenotalone in theirbelief thatwidespread
firearm ownership substantially affects violent crime rates. Thesameunderstandingalsocharacterizesmanyprogunactivists.Ofcourse,progunactivistsbeliefleadsthemtotheoppositeconclusion: thatwidespread firearmownershipreducesviolencebydeterring criminals from confrontation crimes and making moreattractivesuchnonconfrontationcrimesas theft fromunoccupied
commercialor
residential
premises.
Superficially,
the
evidence
for
thisbeliefseemspersuasive.Table1,forinstance,showsthatDenmarkhasroughlyhalf thegunownershiprateofNorway,buta50%highermurderrate,whileRussiahasonlyoneninthNorways
clesandsubstancesnamely,thatdemandcreatesitsownsupply.Thereisnoevidenceanywheretoshowthatreducingtheavailabilityoffirearmsingenerallikewisereducestheiravailabilitytopersonswithcriminalintent,orthatpersonswithcriminalintentwouldnotbeabletoarmthemselvesunderanysetofgeneralrestrictionsonfirearms.).83.ThisArticlewillnotdiscussthedefensiveuseoffirearmsbeyondmakingthe
followingobservations:whilethereisagreatdealofcontroversyaboutthesubject,it isamisleadingcontroversy inwhichantigunadvocates deepethicalormoralobjectionstocivilianselfdefensearepresentedintheguiseofempiricalargument.Theempiricalevidenceunquestionablyestablishesthatgunownershipbyprospectivevictimsnotonlyallows them to resistcriminalattack,butalsodetersviolentcriminals fromattackingthem in the firstplace.SeeJOSEPHF.SHELEY&JAMESD.WRIGHT,INTHELINEOFFIRE:YOUTHS,GUNS,ANDVIOLENCEINURBANAMERICA63(1995), and JAMES D. WRIGHT & PETER H. ROSSI, ARMED AND CONSIDEREDDANGEROUS:ASURVEYOFFELONSANDTHEIRFIREARMS154(1986)foradiscussionofDept.ofJusticefundedsurveysofincarceratedadultandjuvenilefelons.SeealsoLOTT,THEBIASAGAINSTGUNS,supranote30,at811,22740;DavidB.Kopel,Lawyers,Guns,andBurglars,43ARIZ.L.REV.345(2001);LawrenceSouthwick,Jr.,SelfDefensewithGuns:TheConsequences,28J.CRIM.JUST.351(2000).The legitimate question is not whether victim gun possession allows for self
defenseanddeterscriminalviolence,buthowextensiveandimportantthesebenefitsare.SeeKLECK&KATES,supranote64,at213342;LOTT,supranote11;PhilipJ.Cook&JensLudwig,DefensiveGunUses:NewEvidencefromaNationalSurvey,14J.QUANTITATIVE CRIMINOLOGY 111 (1998); PhilipJ.Cook&Jens Ludwig,Guns in
America:National
Survey
on
Private
Ownership
and
Use
of
Firearms,
Natl
Inst.
Just.:
Research inBrief (U.S.DeptofJustice,Washington,D.C.,1997);MarvinE.Wolfgang,ATributetoaViewIHaveOpposed,86J.CRIM.L.&CRIMINOLOGY188(1995).
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No.2] WouldBanningFirearmsReduceMurderandSuicide? 671
gunownership ratebutamurder rate2500%higher.LookingatTables13,itiseasytofindnationsinwhichveryhighgunownershipratescorrelatewithverylowmurderrates,whileothernationswith very low gun ownership rates have much higher murder
rates. Moreover, there is not insubstantial evidence that in theUnitedStateswidespreadgunavailabilityhashelpedreducemurderandotherviolentcrimerates.Oncloseranalysis,however,thisevidenceappearsuniquelyapplicabletotheUnitedStates.More than 100 million handguns are owned in the United
States84primarily for selfdefense,85 and 3.5millionpeoplehavepermits to carry concealed handguns for protection.86 RecentanalysisrevealsagreatdealofselfdefensiveuseoffirearmsintheUnitedStates,infact,moredefensivegunuses[byvictims]thancrimescommittedwithfirearms.87Itislittlewonderthatthe
National InstituteofJustice surveysamongprison inmatesfindthatlargepercentagesreportthattheirfearthatavictim
mightbe armeddeterred them from confrontation crimes.[T]he felonsmost frightened aboutconfrontinganarmedvictim were those from states with the greatest relativenumberofprivatelyowned firearms.Conversely, robberyishighestinstatesthatmostrestrictgunownership.88
Concomitantly,aseriesofstudiesbyJohnLottandhiscoauthorDavidMustardconcludethattheissuanceofmillionsofpermitstocarryconcealedhandgunsisassociatedwithdrasticdeclinesinAmericanhomiciderates.89Ironically,todetailtheAmericanevidenceforwidespreadde
fensivegunownershipsdeterrentvalueisalsotoraisequestionsabouthowapplicable thatevidencewouldbeeven to theother
nations thathavewidespreadgunownershipbut lowviolence.TherearenodataforforeignnationscomparabletotheAmericandatajustdiscussed.Withoutsuchdata,wecannotknowwhethermillionsofNorwegiansownhandgunsandcarrythemforprotec
84.Kates,supranote29,at63.85.KLECK,supranote8,at74(collectingsurveyresponses).86.Kates,supranote29,at64.87.JACOBS,supranote11,at14(collectingstudies).
88.Kates,supranote29,at70(collectingstudies).89.LOTT,supranote11;JohnR.Lott&DavidB.Mustard,Crime,Deterrence,and
RighttoCarry, 26J.LEGAL STUD. 1 (1997);DavidB.Mustard,CultureAffectsOur
BeliefsAbout
Firearms,
But
Data
are
Also
Important,
151
U.
PENN.
L.
REV.
1387
(2003).
Thesestudiesarehighlycontroversial.SeeKates,supranote29,at7071,fordiscussionofcriticsandcriticisms.
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tion, thereby deterring Norwegian criminals from committingviolent crimes.Nor canweknowwhetherguns are commonlykept fordefense inGermanhomes and stores, thuspreventingGermancriminalsfromrobbingthem.
Moreover,ifthedeterrenteffectofgunownershipaccountsforlowviolenceratesinhighgunownershipnationsotherthantheUnitedStates,onewonderswhy thatdeterrent effectwouldbeamplifiedthere.EvenwiththedropinUnitedStatesmurderratesthatLott andMustard attribute to themassive increase inguncarry licensing, theUnitedStatesmurderrate isstilleight timeshigherthanNorwayseventhoughtheU.S.hasanalmost300%higherrateofgunownership.That isconsistentwiththepointsmadeabove.Murderratesaredeterminedbysocioeconomicandculturalfactors.IntheUnitedStates,thosefactorsincludethatthenumber of civilianowned guns nearly equals thepopulationtriple the ownership rate in even the highest European gun
ownershipnationsand
that
vast
numbers
of
guns
are
kept
for
personaldefense.That isnotafactor inothernationswithcomparatively high firearm ownership. High gun ownership maywellbea factor in the recentdrasticdecline inAmericanhomicide.Butevenso,Americanhomicideisdrivenbysocioeconomicandcultural factors thatkeep it farhigher than thecomparablerateofhomicideinmostEuropeannations.Insum,thoughmanynationswithwidespreadgunownership
havemuch lowermurderrates thannations thatseverelyrestrictgunownership, itwouldbesimplistic toassume thatatalltimesandinallplaceswidespreadgunownershipdepressesviolencebydeterring many criminals into nonconfrontation crime. There is
evidencethat
itdoes
so
in
the
United
States,
where
defensive
gun
ownership is a substantial sociocultural phenomenon. But themoreplausibleexplanation formanynationshavingwidespreadgunownershipwith lowviolence is that thesenationsneverhadhighmurderandviolenceratesandsoneverhadoccasiontoenactsevereantigun laws.Ontheotherhand,innationsthathaveexperiencedhighandrisingviolentcrimerates,the legislativereactionhasgenerallybeentoenact increasinglysevereantigun laws.Thisisfutile,forreducinggunownershipbythelawabidingcitizenrytheonlyoneswhoobeygun lawsdoesnot reduceviolenceormurder.Theresultisthathighcrimenationsthatbangunstoreducecrimeenduphavingbothhighcrimeandstringentgun
laws,while
itappears
that
low
crime
nations
that
do
not
signifi
cantlyrestrictgunscontinuetohavelowviolencerates.
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Thusboth sides of the gun prohibition debate are likelywronginviewingtheavailabilityofgunsasamajorfactorinthe incidence of murder in any particular society. Thoughmanypeoplemaystillclingtothatbelief,thehistorical,geo
graphic,anddemographicevidenceexplored in thisArticleprovidesaclearadmonishment. Whethergunavailability isviewed as a cause or as amere coincidence, the long termmacrocosmicevidence is thatgunownershipspreadwidelythroughout societies consistently correlates with stable ordecliningmurderrates.Whethercausativeornot,theconsistent international pattern is thatmoreguns equal lessmurderandotherviolentcrime.Even ifone is inclined to thinkthatgunavailability isan important factor,theavailable international data cannot be squared with the mantra thatmore guns equal more death and fewer guns equal lessdeath.Rather, if firearms availabilitydoesmatter, thedata
consistentlyshow
that
the
way
it
matters
is
that
more
guns
equallessviolentcrime.
V. GEOGRAPHIC,HISTORICALANDDEMOGRAPHICPATTERNS
Ifmoregunsequalmoredeathand fewergunsequal lessdeath, it should follow,all thingsbeing equal, (1) thatgeographicareaswithhighergunownershipshouldhavemoremurder than thosewith lessgunownership; (2) thatdemographicgroupswithhighergunownershipshouldbemorepronetomurderthanthosewithlessownership;and(3)that
historicaleras
in
which
gun
ownership
is
widespread
should
havemoremurder than those inwhichgunswere fewerorlesswidespread.As discussed earlier, these effects are notpresent. Historical eras, demographic groups, and geographic areas with more guns do not have more murdersthan thosewith fewerguns. Indeed, thosewithmoregunsoften,orevengenerally,havefewermurders.Of course, all other thingsmay notbe equal.Obviously,
many factors other than guns may promote or reduce thenumberofmurdersinanygivenplaceortimeoramongparticular groups. And it maybe impossible even to identifythesefactors,muchlesstotakeaccountofthemall.Thusany
conclusions
drawn
from
the
kinds
of
evidence
presented
ear
lierinthispapermustnecessarilybetentative.
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Acknowledgingthisdoesnot,however,blunttheforceoftwo crucial points. The first regards the burden of proof.Thosewho assertthe mantra,and urgethatpublicpolicybebasedon it, bear the burden ofproving thatmoregunsdo
equalmoredeathand fewergunsequallessdeath.But theycannotbear thatburdenbecause there simply is no largenumber of cases in which the widespread prevalence ofguns among the generalpopulation has led tomoremurder.By the same token,but evenmore importantly, itcannot beshownconsistentlythatareductioninthenumberofguns available to the general population has led to fewerdeaths.Nor isthe burden bornebyspeculatingthatthe reason such cases do not appear is that other factors alwaysintervene.The second issue, allied to theburden ofproof, regards
plausibility.Ontheirface,the followingfactsfromTables1
and2suggest
that
gun
ownership
is
irrelevant,
or
has
little
relevance, to murder: France and neighboring Germanyhaveexactlythesame,comparativelyhighrateofgun ownership,yet the Frenchmurderrate isnearly twice theGerman; France has infinitely more gun ownership thanLuxembourg, which nevertheless has a murder rate fivetimesgreater, thoughhandgunsare illegaland other typesofgunssparse;Germanyhasalmostdoublethe gun ownership rate of neighboring Austria yet a similarly very low murder rate; the Norwegian gun ownership rate is overtwice the Austrian rate, yet the murder rates are almostidentical.
Andthen
there
is
Table
3,
which
shows
Slovenia,
with
66%
moregunownershipthanSlovakia,nevertheless hasroughlyonethird lessmurderpercapita;Hungaryhasmore than6timesthegunownershiprateofneighboringRomaniabutalowermurderrate;theCzechRepublicsgunownershiprateismorethan3timesthatofneighboringPoland,butitsmurderrateis lower;PolandandneighboringSloveniahaveexactly thesamemurderrate, thoughSloveniahasover triplethegunownershippercapita.
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Table3:EasternEuropeGunOwnershipandMurderRates(ratesgivenareper100,000peopleandindescendingorder)
Nation MurderRate RateofGunOwnership
Russia 20.54*[2002] 4,000
Moldova 8.13**[2000] 1,000
Slovakia 2.65**[2000] 3,000
Romania 2.50**[2000] 300
Macedonia 2.31**[2000] 16,000
Hungary 2.22[2003] 2,000
Finland 1.98[2004] 39,000
Poland 1.79[2003] 1,500
Slovenia 1.81**[2000] 5,000
Cz.Republic 1.69**[2000] 5,000
Greece 1.12[2003] 11,000
Notes:ThistablecoversalltheEasternEuropeannationsforwhichwehavedataregardingbothgunownershipandmurderrates.GunownershipdatacomesfromGRADUATEINSTITUTEOFINTERNATIONALSTUDIES,SMALLARMSSURVEY(2003).
*CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2002,JURISTATat3.
**UnitedNationsOfficeonDrugsandCrime,TheSeventhUnitedNationsSurveyonCrimeTrendsandtheOperationsofCriminalJusticeSystems(19982000),Mar.31,2004,at82,260,287,370,405,398.
CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2003,JURISTATat3.
CANADIAN CENTRE FOR JUSTICE STATISTICS, HOMICIDE IN CANADA, 2004,JURISTATat3.
Ontheirface,Tables1,2,and3andthecomparisonsgleaned
fromthem
suggest
that
gun
ownership
is
irrelevant,
or
has
little
relevance, tomurder.Historical anddemographic comparisonsofferfurtherevidence.Again,allthedatamaybemisleading.Itisconceivablethatmoregunsdoequalmoremurder,butthatthiscausationdoesnotappearbecause someunidentifiableextraneous factoralways intervenes.That isconceivable,butultimatelyunlikely.AsHansToch,aseniorAmericancriminologistwho35years ago endorsed handgun prohibition and confiscation,butthenrecantedbasedonlaterresearch,arguesitishardtoexplainthatwherefirearmsaremostdense,violentcrimeratesarelowestandwheregunsareleastdense,violentcrimeratesarehighest.90
90.Toch&Lizotte,supranote11,at232.ProfessorTochwasaconsultantto the1960sEisenhowerCommission,anduntilthe1990sheendorseditsconclusionsthat
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676 HarvardJournalofLaw&PublicPolicy [Vol.30
A. DemographicPatternsContrarytowhatshouldbethecaseifmoregunsequalmore
death, there are no consistent indications of a linkbetweengunownershipandcriminalorviolentbehaviorbyowners;infact, gun ownership is higher among whites than amongblacks,higheramongmiddleagedpeople thanamongyoungpeople,higheramongmarriedthanamongunmarriedpeople,higheramongricherpeoplethanpoorallpatternsthatarethe reverse of theway inwhich criminalbehavior isdistributed.91Theseconclusionsarereinforcedby focusingonpatternsof
AfricanAmerican homicide. Per capita, AfricanAmericanmurder rates are much higher than the murder rate forwhites.92Ifmoregunsequalmoredeath,andfewergunsequalless,onemightassumegunownership ishigheramongAfricanAmericans than among whites, but in fact AfricanAmerican gun ownership ismarkedly lower thanwhite gunownership.93
widespread handgun ownership causes violence and that reducing ownershipwouldreduceviolence.FranklinZimring,oneofthearchitectsofthoseconclusions,hasadmittedthattheyweremadespeculativelyandessentiallywithoutanempiricalbasis.FRANKLINE.ZIMRING&GORDONHAWKINS,THECITIZENSGUIDETOGUNCONTROL xixii (1987) (In the 1960s after the assassinationsofPresidentJohnF.Kennedy,Dr.MartinLutherKing,Jr.,andSenatorRobertF.Kennedy,it[guncontrol]becameamajorsubjectofpublicpassionandcontroversy...[sparkingadebate that] hasbeen heated, acrimonious and polarized....Itbegan in a factualvacuum[inwhich]...neithersidefeltanygreatneedforfactualsupporttobuttress
foregoneconclusions.
In
the
1960s,
there
was
literally
no
scholarship
on
the
relationship
betweengunsandviolenceandtheincidenceorconsequencesofinterpersonalviolence,andnoworkinprogress.(emphasisadded)).
Asforthefindingsofthesubsequentbodyofresearch,ProfessorTochhaswritten:
[W]henusedforprotectionfirearmscanseriouslyinhibitaggressionandcanprovideapsychologicalbufferagainstthefearofcrime.Furthermore,the fact thatnationalpatterns show littleviolent crimewheregunsaremostdenseimpliesthatgunsdonotelicitaggressioninanymeaningfulway....Quitethecontrary,thesefindingssuggestthathighsaturationsof guns in places, or something correlatedwith that condition, inhibitillegalaggression.
Id.at234&n.10.91.KLECK,supranote8,at71.92.SeeMALCOLM,supranote10,at23233;AlfredBlumstein,YouthViolence,Guns,
andthe
Illicit
Drug
Industry,
86
J.
CRIM.
L.
&
CRIMINOLOGY10,
21
(1995).
93.SeeLOTT, supranote 11, at 39 ([W]hite gun ownership exceed[ed] that forblacksbyabout40in1996);seealsoKLECK,supranote8,at71.
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No.2] WouldBanningFirearmsReduceMurderandSuicide? 677
Particularlycorrosive to themantraare the factsas toruralAfricanAmericans gun ownership. Per capita, rural AfricanAmericansaremuchmore likelytoownfirearmsthanareurban AfricanAmericans.94 Yet, despite their greater access to
guns, the firearmmurderrateofyoungruralblackmales isasmallfractionofthefirearmmurderrateofyoungurbanblackmales.95Thesefactsareonlyanomalousinrelationtothemantrathat
moregunsequalmoredeathandfewergunsequallessdeath.Incontrast, these factsaccordwith theearlierpointregardingtheaberranceofmurderers.Whatevertheirrace,ordinarypeople simply do notmurder. Thus preventing lawabiding, responsibleAfricanAmericans fromowninggunsdoesnothingatalltoreducemurderers,becausetheyarenottheoneswhoare doing the killing.Themurderers are a smallminority ofextremeantisocialaberrantswhomanagetoobtaingunswhatever
thelevel
of
gun
ownership
in
the
African
American
community.
Indeed,murderers generally fall into a group some criminologistshavecalledviolentpredators,sharplydifferentiatingthemnotonly from theoverallpopulationbut fromothercriminalsaswell.96Surveysof imprisoned felons indicate thatwhennot imprisoned theordinary felonaveragesperhaps12crimesperyear.97Incontrast,violentpredatorsspendmuchormostof their time committing crimes,averaging at least 5assaults, 63 robberies, and 172 burglaries annually.98 A NationalInstituteofJusticesurveyof2,000felonsin10stateprisons, which focused on gun crime, said of these types ofrespondents:
[T]hemenwehave labeledPredatorswereclearlyomnibusfelons... [committing]moreorlessanycrimetheyhadtheopportunity to commit....The Predators (handgun andshotguncombined)...amounted toabout22%of the sampleandyetaccounted for51%of the totalcrime [admittedbythe2,000felons]....Thus,whenwetalkaboutcontrol
94.SeeLOTT,supranote11,at39;seealsoKLECK,supranote8,at71.95.ThemurderrateofyoungurbanAfricanAmericans isroughly600%higher
thanthatoftheirruralcounterparts.SeeLoisA.Fingerhutetal.,FirearmandNonfirearmHomicideAmongPersons15Through19YearsofAge,267J.AM.MED.ASSN3048,3049tbl.1.96.JANM.CHAIKEN&MARCIAR.CHAIKEN,VARIETIESOFCRIMINALBEHAVIOR
6263
(1982).
97.Id.at65.98.Id.at123,125,219tbl.A.19.
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678 HarvardJournalofLaw&PublicPolicy [Vol.30
lingcrimeintheUnitedStatestoday,wearetalkinglargelyaboutcontrollingthebehaviorofthesemen.99
Thepoint isnotjustthatdemographicpatternsofhomicideand gun ownership in the AfricanAmerican community do
notsupportthemoregunsequalmoredeathmantra.Moreimportantly, thosepatterns refute the logicof fewerguns equalless death. The reason fewer guns among ordinary AfricanAmericansdoesnotleadtofewermurdersisbecausethatpaucitydoesnottranslatetofewergunsfortheaberrantminoritywhodomurder.Thecorrelationofveryhighmurderrateswithlowgunownership inAfricanAmerican communities simplydoesnotbearoutthenotionthatdisarmingthepopulaceasawholewilldisarmandpreventmurderbypotentialmurderers.
B. MacrohistoricalEvidence:FromtheMiddleAgestothe20thCentury
TheMiddleAgeswereatimeofnotoriouslybrutalandendemicwarfare.Theyalsoexperiencedratesofordinarymurder almost double the highest recordedU.S.murder rate.100ButMiddleAge homicide cannotbe explained in terms ofthe availability of firearms, which had not yet been invented.101Theinventionprovidessometestofthemantra.Ifit istruethatmoregunsequalmoremurderand fewergunsequal lessdeath,murder should have risenwith the invention, increasedefficiency,andgreateravailabilityof firearmsacrossthepopulation.Yet, using England as an example,murder rates seem to
have fallen sharplyasgunsbecameprogressivelymore efficientandwidelyownedduringthefivecenturiesaftertheinventionoffirearms.102Duringmuchofthisperiod,becausetheentireadultmalepopulationofEnglandwasdeemedtoconstituteamilitia,everymilitaryagemalewasrequiredtopossessarmsforuseinmilitiatrainingandservice.103
99.WRIGHT&ROSSI,supranote83,at76.100.LANE,supranote65,at14.101.Id.at151.Seegenerallyid.ch.1.
102.MALCOLM,supranote10,at1920.103.SeegenerallyJOYCELEEMALCOLM,TOKEEPANDBEARARMS:THEORIGINSOF
ANANGLOAMERICANRIGHT115(1994);STEPHENP.HALBROOK,THATEVERYMAN
BEARMED:
THE
EVOLUTION
OF
A
CONSTITUTIONAL
RIGHT
3753
(1984);
Don
B.
Kates,
HandgunProhibitionandtheOriginalMeaningoftheSecondAmendment,82MICH.L.REV.204,21416(1983).
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No.2] WouldBanningFirearmsReduceMurderandSuicide? 679
Thesamerequirementwas true inAmericaduring theperiodofcolonialandpostcolonialsettlement.Indeed,thebasicEnglishmilitia lawswere supercededby the colonies evenmorespecificanddemanding legalrequirementsofuniversal
gunownership.Under those laws,virtuallyallcolonistsandeveryhouseholdwere required toownguns.Dependingonthecolonyslaws,maleyouthsweredeemedofmilitaryageat16,17,or 18,and everymilitary ageman,except for the insane, infirm, and criminals,had topossessarms.Theyweresubject tobeingcalled for inspection,militiadrill,orservice,allofwhich legallyrequired them tobringandpresent theirguns.Toarmthosetoopoortoaffordguns,thelawsrequiredthatgunsbepurchased for themand that theymake installmentpaymentstopaybackthecost.104Itbears emphasis that these gun ownership requirements
werenot limited to those subject tomilitia service.Women,
seamen,clergy,
and
some
public
officials
were
automatically
exemptfrommilitiacallup,asweremenovertheuppermili
104.MALCOLM,supranote103,at13841;Kates,supranote102,at21416.Typicallaws (quotedwith original spelling and punctuation) appear from the followingsources:ARCHIVESOFMARYLAND77(WilliamHandBrowneed.,Baltimore,MarylandHistoricalSociety1883) ([T]hateveryhousekeeperorhousekeeperswithinthisProvinceshallhavereadycontinuallyuponalloccasionswithinhisherortheirhouseforhimorthemselvesandforeverypersonwithinhisherortheirhouseabletobeararmesoneServiceablefixedgunneofbastardmuskettboarealongwithapoundofgunpowder,fourpoundsofpistolormusketshot,matchformatchlocksand of flints for firelocks);NARRATIVES OF EARLY VIRGINIA 273 (LyonGardinerTyler ed., photo. reprint 1974) (1907) (requiring that everyone attend church onSunday, furtherproviding that all suche asbeare armes shallbring theirpiecesswordes,poulderandshottewiththemtochurchonpenaltyofafine);RECORDSOFTHEGOVERNORANDCOMPANYOFTHEMASSACHUSETTSBAY INNEWENGLAND84(NathanielB.Shurtleffed.,Boston,WilliamWhite1853)(orderingtownstoprovidetheir residentswitharms if theycouldnotprovide theirownfor thepresent,&after to receive satisfaction for that they disburse when they shall be able);RECORDS OF THE COLONY OF RHODE ISLAND AND PROVIDENCE PLANTATIONS, INNEWENGLAND7980,94(JohnRussellBartletted.,Providence,A.CrawfordGreene&Brother,1856) (requiring, respectively:[T]hateverymandocomearmeduntothemeetinguponeverysixthday,andalsothatmilitiaofficersgotoeveryinhabitant[inPortsmouthand]seewhethereveryoneofthemhaspowderandbullets;andthatnoemanshallgotwomilesfromtheTowneunarmed,eytherwithGunnorSword;andthatnoneshallcometoanypublicMeetingwithouthisweapon.);THECODEOF1650,BEINGACOMPILATIONOFTHEEARLIESTLAWSANDORDERSOFTHEGENERALCOURTOFCONNECTICUT72 (Hartford,SilasAndrus1822)(Thatallpersons thatareabove the ageof sixteeneyeares,exceptmagistratesand church
officers,shall
beare
arms
...and
every
male
person
within
this
jurisdiction,
above
thesaidage,shallhaveincontinuallreadines,agoodmuskittorothergunn,fittforservice,andallowedbytheclarkoftheband.).
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taryage,whichvaried from45 to 60,dependingon the colony.Buteveryhouseholdwasrequiredtohaveagun,evenifall itsoccupantswereotherwiseexempt frommilitiaservice,todeter criminals and other attackers.Likewise, all respect
ablemenweretheoreticallyrequiredtocarryarmswhenoutandabroad.105These laws may not havebeen fully enforced (except in
times of danger) in areas that had been longsettled andpeaceful. Nevertheless, by the eighteenth century, colonialAmericans were the most heavily armed people in theworld.106Yet,farfrommoregunsequalingmoredeath,murders in the New England colonies were rare, and fewmurderers in all the colonies involved guns despite theirwideavailability.107Americaremainedverywellarmedyethomicideremained
quite low forover twohundredyears, from the earliest set
tlementsthroughtheentirecolonialperiodandearlyyearsoftheUnitedStates.HomicideinmoresettledareasonlybeganrisingmarkedlyinthetwodecadesbeforetheCivilWar.108Bythat time theuniversalmilitiawas inoperative and theuniversality of American gun ownership had disappeared asmanypeople in longsettledpeacefulareasdidnothuntandhadnootherneedforafirearm.109
105.For collections ofmany of the relevant laws, seeClaytonE.Cramer,GunControl in Colonial New England, (unpublished manuscript, available athttp://www.claytoncramer.com/GunControlColonialNewEngland.PDF)(lastvisitedNov.19,2006);ClaytonE.Cramer,GunControl inColonialNewEngland,Part II
(unpublished manuscript, available at http://www.claytoncramer.com/ GunControlColonialNewEngland2.PDF) (last visited Nov. 19, 2006); Clayton E.Cramer,GunControlintheMiddle&SouthernColonies,(unpublishedmanuscript,available at http://www.claytoncramer.com/MiddleSouthernColonialGunControl.PDF) (last visited Nov. 19, 2006); Clayton E. Cramer, Militia Statutes,http://www.claytoncramer.com/primary.html#MilitiaLaws (last visited Nov. 19,2006).106.JOHNMORGANDEDERER,WARINAMERICATO1775,at116(1990).107.LANE,supranote64,at48,5960.108.Id.at344.109.Theenthusiasmmoderngunadvocatesexpressfortheancientmilitiafarex
ceeds the enthusiasm feltby the Englishmen andAmericanswhowere actuallysubjecttotheobligationsinvolved.Gunswereexpensiveitemsevenforthoseownerswhowere supplied themby thecoloniessince theywere required topay thecoloniesbackovertime.Andthedutyofmilitiadrillwasaconstantsourceofirrita
tionto
men
who
had
little
time
for
leisure
and
urgent
need
to
devote
their
time
to
makingalivingforthemselvesandtheirfamilies.Bytheturnofthenineteenthcentury,attheearliest,theuniversalmilitiawasindesuetudeandreplacedinthe1840s
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TheCivilWaracquaintedvastnumbersofmenwithmodern rapidfireguns,and, in itsaftermath,providedauniqueopportunity to acquire them. Before the Civil War, reliablemultishot rifles or shotguns did not exist and revolvers
(thoughtheyhadbeeninventedinthe1830s)weresoexpensivetheywereeffectivelyoutofreachformostoftheAmericanpopulace.110TheCivilWar changed all that.Officers onboth sides had tobuy their own revolvers, while sidearmswereissuedtononcommissionedofficersgenerally,aswellasthoseordinarysoldierswhowereintheartillery,cavalry,anddragoons.111ThefactthatovertwomillionmenservedintheUnionArmyatvarioustimeswhiletheConfederateshadoverhalf that number suggests the number of revolvers involved.112
bycolorfully
garbed
volunteer
formations
whose
activities
were
more
social
than
military.110.RevolverinventorSamuelColtsfirstbusinessfailedin1840.Itreviveditself
only with sales to officers and the military during the MexicanAmerican War(18461848),andsustaineditselfthroughthe1850swithsalestowealthyAmericansandEuropeans.SeeJOSEPHG.BILBY,CIVILWARFIREARMS157(1996);LEEKENNETT&JAMESLAVERNEANDERSON,THEGUNINAMERICA90(1975);LANE,supranote65,at109.ColtssalesflourishedasforeignarmiesadoptedhisrevolverandwidesalestookplaceinthecommercialmarketacrossEurope,KENNETT&ANDERSON,supra,at90,especiallyafterColtsprizewinningexhibitatthe1851GreatIndustrialExhibition in London. SeegenerallyJOSEPH G. ROSA, COLONEL COLT LONDON 1329(1976).111.SeegenerallyBILBY,supranote110,at15772.Therevolversinvolvedwereby
nomeans allColts: [T]heFederal government alsopurchased largenumbersofRemington,StarrandWhitneyrevolvers,aswellas thegunsofother [American]makers, including thebizarre lookingSavage,with itssecond ring triggerwhichcockedthearm,andthesidehammerJoslyn.Id.at158.VastnumbersofgunswerealsopurchasedinEuropewhere,inthefirst15monthsofthewar,theUnionboughtover738,000firearms(includinglongarmsaswellasrevolvers).ALLANR.MILLETT& PETER MASLOWSKI, FOR THE COMMON DEFENSE: A MILITARY HISTORY OF THEUNITEDSTATESOFAMERICA216(1984).SomeUnioninfantryunitswereissuedrevolversandmanyenlistedinfantrymeninotherunitsboughttheirown.BILBY,supranote110,at160.112.Thesefiguresarejustestimates.Whileatleastsomewhatreliablefiguresexist
forhowmanymenservedatanyonetimeintheUnionArmy,thatnumberisnotcoextensivewithhowmanyservedintotal.SomeUnionsoldiersservedthroughoutthewar,reenlistingwhentheiroriginalenlistmentswereup.Othersmusteredout andwere replacedwith new recruits. Still others deserted longbefore theirtermswereup,againrequiringreplacements.Somescoundrelsenlistedjustfortheenlistmentbonus,anddesertedassoonastheycould;someofthesewentthroughtheenlistmentanddesertionprocessmultipletimes,collectinganewbonusundera
newname
time
after
time.
THE
WORLD
ALMANAC
AND
BOOK
OF
FACTS
2006,
at
77
(2006)givesfiguresof2,128,948fortheUnionArmyand84,415fortheMarines;itestimatesthattheConfederateArmyssizewasbetween600,000to1,500,000.
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Atwarsend, theU.S.ArmyandNavywere leftwithvastnumbersofsurplusrevolvers,boththosetheyhadpurchasedand those captured from Confederate forces. As the Armyplummeted toslightlyover11,000men,113hundredsof thou
sands of military surplus revolvers were sold at very lowprices.Inaddition,when theirenlistmentswereup,orwhentheyweremusteredoutatwarsend,formerofficersands