Vision and Vital Uncertainties for Nursing Futures

Jonathan C. PeckPresident & Senior Futurist

June 13, 1014

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Understand Why Aspirations Matter

Explore Uncertainty in Alternative Scenarios

Assess Nursing Likelihoods and Preferences

Envision Nursing for Health & Wellbeing

Aspirations Model

IAF’s approach:

Aspirational Futures

Forecasts Across Four Scenarios

Macro environment US economy Culture Government

HealthDefinitionStatusLocus

Health CareHealth Care DeliveryHealth Insurance CoverageHealth Information TechnologyNational Health Care Spending/GDP

Scenario #1

Slow Reform, Better Health

Personalized medicine – with clouds of data Many diseases prevented

Scenario #1

Slow Reform, Better Health

Innovations: Avatars & Adaptive trialsFocus on health Social DeterminantsGreater Disparities

Scenario 1: Slow Reform, Better Health

Scenario #2

Health If You Can Get It

2013: Policy failures; Recession; Cuts to Medicare and MedicaidEconomic Gaps Grow Political ExtremesPronounced Pessimism, Family Burdens

Scenario #2

Health If You Can Get It

2020: 75 million uninsured Business ethics trump medical ethicsAffluent get medical advances Poor get crowded ERs & Minute Clinics

Scenario 2: Health If You Can Get It

Scenario #3

Big Data, Big Health Gains

Cultural shifts affect health, policy and care to change local economics

Success: ending food deserts, e.g., Harlem Children’s Zone

Political change; shared vision; cooperation

Scenario #3

Big Data, Big Health Gains

Local food & manufacturing

“Personal data clouds”; Massive community data

Prevention/ Preemption of chronic diseases; Models & Simulations; Adaptive Trials

Personalized Vital Signs

Digital health agents,

gaming, social

networking

Scenario #3

Big Data, Big Health Gains

From PCMH to Community Centered Health Home Most providers integrated, capitated Healthy communities; self care decreases demand for physician services and hospital care

Community Centered

Health Home

Triple Aim Effective self-care

Scenario 3: Big Data, Big Health Gains

Scenario #4

A Culture of Health

Innate human drive for healthy growthSystems biology evolves into health ecology in all health domainsLeaders creating environments for health

Scenario #4

A Culture of Health

Boomers’ crisis creates focus on youthReality TV shows what a “good death” looks likeHealth care incorporates new patient’s values

Scenario #4

A Culture of Health

Health care spending capped locally

Avatars for self-care reduce demand for medical interventions

2025: Unified Biological Systems Theory

Scenario 4: A Culture of Health

 Likelihood Preferability

Scenario #1

Slow Reform, Better Health 

   

Scenario #2

Health If You Can Get It 

   

Scenario #3

Big Data, Big Health Gains

   

Scenario #4

A Culture of Health

   

Likelihood and Preferability

Recommend New Health Roles

Recommend Tech For Health Metrics

Recommend New Leadership

Recommend Remove Barriers to Health

From 2032 Back To 2014

Imagine Nurses Created A Culture of Health and Wellbeing in 2032.

What would you be doing in 2014 to help?

Are there new health roles for nurses?

How will you measure nursing progress?

Who inspires you to shape nursing’s futures?

Thank you!

Jonathan PeckPresident & Senior FuturistInstitute for Alternative Futures

703-684-5880www.altfutures.orgjpeck@altfutures.org