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Viet NamCa Ca, Aapa
a P Pp
A report for Oxfam
October 2008
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Executive Summary 3
Introduction: The climate is changing and so are our lives 7
Poverty and climate change in Viet Nam 11
Climate change - past, present and uture 15
Ben Tre on the rontline o climate change 21
Quang Tri Living with Floods 35
Government plans on adaptation and climate change 47
Conclusion 50
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abbvns
CC Climate Change
CCFSC Central Committee or Flood and Storm Control
DOST Department o Science and Technology
DARD Department o Agriculture and Rural Development
DFID Department or International Development
GEF Global Environmental Facility
GHG Greenhouse Gas
IMHEN Institute o Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment
IPCC Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change
MARD Ministry o Agriculture and Rural Development
MDG Millennium Development Goal
MONRE Ministry o Natural Resources and Environment
NGOs Non-Governmental Organisations
NTP National Target Program
OCHA Oce or the Coordination o Humanitarian Aairs
OHK Oxam Hong Kong
SEDPS Socio-Economic Development Plans
SLR Sea Level Rise
UNDP United Nations Development Program
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
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Mn nngs:
Poor men and women in Ben Tre and Quangw
Tri are already experiencing the consequenc-
es o the climate changing, and in manycases are ill-equipped to reduce, or adapt
to, the consequences. They will be particu-
larly vulnerable as the number o extreme
weather events increases in intensity and/or
requency.
In many villages women are hit the hardestw
by natural disasters. They oten cannot swim,
have ewer assets to turn to or alternative
livelihoods when crops are destroyed, and
have ewer employment opportunities away
rom the home.
The perception o many villagers and localw
leaders is that the climate is already changing.
In particular, they talk o the unpredictability
o the weather and the intensity o weather
events compared to previous years.
The particular impacts o weather events varyw
rom province to province, and rom district to
district. In the case o Ben Tre, the main prob-
lems were typhoons, unpredictable weather,
and the threat o salt water intrusion rom sea
level rise and other actors. In Quang Tri, it was
more a question o unpredictable and con-
centrated rainall causing more ooding than
usual or ooding at unusual times o the year.
The example o low-income prawn armersw
in Ben Tre shows the close link between sus-
ecv S
Viet Nam is one o the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change.
The governments impressive achievements in pulling millions o people out o
poverty are seriously jeopardised by the likely increase in extreme weather events
such as severe rainall and drought, and by slow climate changes like sea level rises
and warming temperatures. Poor men and women are particularly at risk. A team
o Oxam researchers travelled to the two provinces o Ben Tre and Quang Tri inMay 2008 to take a snapshot o how poor amilies are experiencing the changing
climate, and how they might deal with this in the uture. The main ndings and
recommendations o this report are:
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Viet NaM: ClimAte ChAnge, AdAPtAtion And Poor PeoPle
4
tainable livelihoods and peoples capacity to
cope with, and recover rom, extreme weath-
er events. Sudden reductions in income due
to poor yields have led to more amilies be-
coming vulnerable.Disaster risk reduction saves lives and liveli-w
hoods. Villagers in Quang Tri have shown that
getting involved in local level disaster risk
management programmes can signicantly
reduce their vulnerability to requent or heavy
ooding. This is conrmed by Oxams wider
experience in Viet Nam o working with com-
munities to reduce their vulnerability to the
impact o weather extremes.
Adaptation works. Adaptation to climatew
change by poor communities is at an early
stage, but there are positive examples o
armers already changing their crop cycles or
planting dierent crops.
Awareness o climate change and its causesw
varies signicantly between districts, com-
munities, villages and individual households.
But in general awareness is restricted to a ew
experts, some local authorities and Non-Gov-
ernmental Organisations (NGOs).
Rmmnns:
Poor womens and mens needs and inter-w
ests must be at the heart o national and
local research and policy planning on ad-aptation. The social and economic impact
o climate change on poor men and women
should be at the oreront o any research
and policy ormulation. Any climate change
planning needs to take into consideration
livelihood resilience strategies, socially disag-
gregated vulnerability assessments and ca-
pacities or disaster risk management all at
the local level.
Community-based planning is the start-w
ing point or scaling up provincial and
national responses. One o the best ways
o reducing the risk rom climate change is
to draw on peoples own experience and per-
ceptions at the commune and village level,
and to use that as an integral ingredient o
policy responses. Their local eorts at adap-
tation and disaster risk reduction measures
should be strengthened, and where possible
scaled up to the provincial and national level.Women should be at the centre o commu-
nity-level responses as they are already very
Rescue drill or local communities is one o the disaster risk reduction activities
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exeCutiVe Summary
5
eective in some communities at mobilising
local involvement and implementation.
Integrate climate planning across govern-w
ment departments. Climate change con-
cerns should not be isolated under the remit
o any single ministry but systematically inte-
grated across all major development sectors.
Integrate adaptation into national devel-w
opment planning. Climate change adapta-
tion policies need to be integrated into long-
term planning or sustainable development
and poverty alleviation policies. In particular,climate change needs to be incorporated into
the next round o provincial Socio-Economic
Development Plans (SEDPs) (2011 2020).
The mainstreaming o adaptation measures
requires a comprehensive and integrated as-
sessment o vulnerability, and how to address
this through risk management.
More climate change-specifc research isw
needed. There is a pressing need or a much
greater knowledge base o the possibilitieso salt-resistant, ood-resistant or drought-
resistant crops, which should be developed
with the active involvement o smallholders
on their plots. In particular, national support
needs to be increased or the transition to al-ternative crops and provision o local climate
orecast inormation to armers to assist with
arm planning eorts.
Awareness and capacity building shouldw
be stepped up. There is an urgent need to
step up public awareness campaigns and
capacity building amongst key stakeholders
and key leaders at district, commune and vil-
lage level.
The international community will have tow
play a major role in supporting the govern-
ment o Viet Nams eorts to adapt to climate
change, because the amounts o investment
needed are beyond its budgetary capac-
ity. International adaptation nance will be
needed to enable a wide range o measures,
rom community-led initiatives and disaster-
risk reduction strategies to long-term nation-
al planning and social protection in the ace
o unavoidable impacts.
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Poor men and women in Viet Nam are particularly vulnerable to the eects o the climate changing.
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The Government o Viet Nam is taking the issue
o climate change very seriously and should be
applauded or its eorts. However, as the 2007
IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate
Change) reports stressed, it is poor people within
developing countries who are most at risk rom
climate change. Despite the economic boom o
recent years, there are still signicant numbers
o poor men and women living in areas o Viet
Nam particularly vulnerable to the eects o the
climate changing.
Oxam is particularly concerned about the deep
injustice o these poor communities in Viet Nam
having to pay a high price or a situation or
which they have little or no historical responsi-
bility. Most o the current global warming has
been caused by greenhouse gases (GHG) rom
the coal, oil and gas that drove the industrial rev-
olutions in Europe and America rom the middle
o the 19th century onwards. In 2000 Viet Nam
was responsible or just 0.35 per cent o world
GHG emissions, one o the lowest percentages
in the world. Yet it requently gures amongst
the top ten countries in the world to be aect-
ed by the predicted climate changes. As Oxam
has argued elsewhere, rich countries, which are
primarily responsible or creating the problem,
inrn: t ca
ca a a
Several recent studies have concurred that Viet Nam will be one o most vulner-
able countries to climate change in the world. Gradual changes such as sea level
rises and higher temperatures, more extremes o weather such as drought, and
more intense typhoons are all on the horizon and will have a potentially devastat-
ing impact on the countrys people and economy. This is particularly worrying as
Viet Nam has enjoyed one o the best development records in recent years o anycountry in the world. It is one o the ew countries on track to meet most o its
Millennium Development Goals by 2015. It reduced its poverty rate rom about
58 per cent o the population in 1993 to 18 per cent in 2006.1 Such impressive
achievements are now at risk.
1 Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian Development Outlook 2007.
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Viet NaM: ClimAte ChAnge, AdAPtAtion And Poor PeoPle
8
have to provide the bulk o the nancing or de-
veloping countries to adapt.2
This report gives a snap shot o two areas in Viet
Nam where climate change is orecast to be a ma-
jor threat: Ben Tre is a southern coastal provincewith signicant pockets o poverty situated in the
Mekong Delta, which is predicted to be a region
very vulnerable to sea level rises. Quang Tri is also a
coastal province, but situated in central Viet Nam.
It is already very prone to extreme ooding. Inter-
views carried out in May 2008 put the human ace
on poor amilies there already suering rom the
eects o extreme weather. Testimony ater testi-
mony revealed the widespread perception rom
ordinary villagers that the climate was already
changing, particularly in its unpredictability com-
pared to 20 or 30 years ago, and or the extremes
it can reach. People in Ben Tre speak with dread o
a possible repeat o the erce typhoon unprece-
dented in recent times in that area which caused
widespread devastation in December 2006. Villag-
ers in Quang Tri complain bitterly o the unusual
requency o the ooding in October 2007 and
the unusually long cold snap in February this year
which ruined hal o their rice crop.
It is not possible to assert or sure that these
recent changes in the weather are a result o
human-caused global warming. Viet Nams cli-
mate is aected signicantly by the El Nio and
La Nia weather phenomena, which are a result
o changing temperatures in the Pacic Ocean.
Many experts say the recent changes are the re-
sult o the current La Nia year, which is associat-
ed with tropical low-pressure systems, increased
rainall and lower temperatures. Climate change
impacts on the El Nio/La Nia cycles are not
well enough understood to be able to make any
predictions with condence, although there is
some evidence that warming will increase the
intensity or requency o these phenomena. Butthe key point is that most climate modelling or
this part o the world predicts that such weather
extremes, including typhoons, drought and
heavy rainall, will become more common place
or more intense as a result o climate change.
It is hard not to imagine that these testimonies
rom Ben Tre and Quang Tri are a oretaste o
what it is to come. Global warming will add an
additional layer o vulnerability to these villag-
ers, or whom climate variability is already one othe causes o their poverty.
It is Oxams experience that poor amilies and
women in particular due to their roles in pro-
viding water, ood, uel and care - are the most
vulnerable to the eects o weather extremes.
The same people are critical agents or doing
something about it. A recent Oxam study o
Ninh Thuan province showed that armers were
experiencing more droughts because the rain
now comes in intense, concentrated bursts.3 But
communities in the province were very active in
seeking new ways o adapting to the changing
climate. Most importantly, the study concluded
that rising temperatures need not result in di-
saster i local governments and organisations
took the appropriate measures. Top o the list o
priorities was involving both women and men
rom the communities in decision making and
hearing their needs and suggestions.
2 Oxam Brieng Note, Financing adaptation: why the UNs Bali climate conerence must mandate the search or new unds, OxamInternational, 4 December 2007, available at http://www.oxam.org.uk/resources/policy/trade/downloads/bn_wdr2008.pd.
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iNtRoductioN: the ClimAte is ChAnging And so Are our lives
9
A similar story can be told in Quang Tri province.
Oxam and other organisations have been work-
ing there with local communities to reduce their
vulnerability to the impact o ooding and try to
adapt to it. Villagers are making preparations or
sudden water level rises by building platorms in
their homes, organising rescue teams and boats,
developing early warning systems and ensuring
enough ood is stored or the period o the ood-
ing. Local ocials in the Hai Lang district point
out that in 1999, the last year o very extensive
ooding, 29 people died. But last year, which was
another bad year or ooding, the death toll was
two. One o the main reasons was much bet-
ter preparation. A similar story occurred in the
Phuong My village in the nearby central province
o Ha Tinh when nobody died last year despite
heavy ooding which reached 3 to 4 metres in
depth. In addition, some local rice armers are
adapting to the climate changing by harvest-
ing their rice beore the main ooding season, or
growing a rice variety with a shorter cycle.
This report draws on the testimonies rom the
two provinces and on Oxams general experi-
ence o working in Viet Nam with vulnerable
communities to make a series o recommenda-
tions designed to support the governments im-
plementation o the national plan to adapt to the
climate change at central as well as local level.
3 Peoples Committee o N inh Thuan, Oxam-Vietnam and the Graduate School o Global Environmental Studies o Kyoto University,Drought Management Considerations or Climate Change Adaptation: Focus on the Mekong Region, mimeo, 2007.
Some local armers are adapting by harvesting their rice beore the main ooding season.
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The coastal poor are particularly vulnerable to weather extremes every year
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In 2004, 16 million people were still classied as
poor (equivalent to more than the population o
neighbouring Cambodia) and another 28 mil-
lion lived just above the ocial poverty line.6 It
would not take much to push them back into
poverty. Although the highest percentage o
poor men and women is concentrated amongst
ethnic minorities in the highland areas, in abso-
lute terms the greatest numbers o poor people
live in the coastal areas, including the Red River
and Mekong River deltas. Many o these rely
largely on agricultural activities, but are vulner-
able to increasing land scarcity, low paid o-
arm employment and uncertain access to basic
services.7 Others are poor shing communities
who are becoming more at risk to the vagaries
o the weather.
The coastal poor are particularly vulnerable to
weather extremes every year. The 3,000kms o
Viet Nams eastern coastal seaboard is one o
the most vulnerable spots in the world or ty-
phoons, as graphically illustrated by the chart
made by the UNs Oce or the Coordination o
Humanitarian Aairs (OCHA) o tropical storms
rom 1956-2006.
Pvry n lm hng
n V N
Between 1993 and 2006 a staggering 34 million Vietnamese people out o a total
population o 85 million were pulled out o poverty mainly as a result o strong
economic growth, pro-poor development policies particularly in the agriculture
sector and a strong government commitment. Poverty reduction is one o the six
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) already achieved by the Government o
Viet Nam.4
However, international organisations have recently warned o the re-maining challenges ahead, which are being exacerbated by climate change.5
4 Department or International Development (DFID), Vietnam: Country Assistance Plan, February 2008, p.5.5 UNDP, Terms o Reerence or Technical Assistance to conduct the eleventh PEP Case-study: Linkage o Poverty and Climate Change,
Hanoi, mimeo, December 2007; VARG, Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management or Sustainable PovertyReduction, Viet Nam Country Study, November 2006.
6 The ocial poverty gure or 2006 was 19 per cent, which works out roughly at 16 million people.7 DFID, Viet Nam Country Assistance Plan, pp. 6-7.
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Ffy yrs f trpl Srms n as P
V Nm s n f h ms vlnrbl sps n h wrl fr yphns
Source:United Nations Oce or the Coordination o Humanitarian aairs (OCHA)
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PoVerty aNd Climate ChaNge iN Viet Nam
13
Viet Nam has an admirable history o coping
with natural disasters and reducing their eects,
but the economic and human costs can still be
huge. In the decade between 1991 and 2000 or
example, ocial estimates are that 8,000 people
lost their lives as a result o storms, oods, andland slides. Economic losses amounted to nearly
US$3 billion.8 According to the World Banks 2008
Global Monitoring Report, Viet Nam ranks eighth
in the ten most vulnerable countries in East Asia
to weather extremes.9 A staggering 70 per cent
o the countrys population live in areas subject
to water-related natural disasters.10
For a whole variety o reasons poor men and
women are more vulnerable to these shocks.
They are more likely to live in areas vulnerable
to ooding and other natural disasters, and less
likely to live in more robust permanent homes.
The impact o ooding, storms or drought is usu-
ally greater on poor people as they have ewer
resources to recover. Inability to pay o debt or
take out new loans, increases in local ood prices,
and illness due to water-borne diseases can all
disproportionately aect the poor.
Women and men are also aected dierently by
climate change because o the dierent roles
they play in the household economy. They have
dierent resources with which to perorm these
roles, including dierent levels o education, ac-
cess to power, social norms, access to credit, and
ownership o land and other goods. Testimonies
rom BenTre and Quang Tri showed that women
are oten playing the multiple roles o arming
crops as well as being primarily responsible or
providing ood, water and uel or the amily, and
caring or the sick. All these roles are made more
onerous by the impacts o climate change.
8 Peter Chaudhry and Greet Ruysschaert, Climate Change and Human Development in Viet Nam, UNDP Occasional Paper, 2007, p. 2.9 World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 2008, p. 21310 Huu Ninh Nguyen, Flooding in Mekong River Delta, Viet Nam, UNDP Occasional Paper, 2007, p. 3.
A staggering 70 per cent o the countrys population live in areas subject to water-relatednatural disasters
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The multiple roles women play in the amily are made more onerous by the impacts o climate change.
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There is evidence that over the last orty years
there has been an increase in the number o
disaster events. This is just one o the changes
monitored by climate scientists in Viet Nam.11
The others are:
There has been an annual temperature rise ow
0.1 degrees C per decade between 1931 and
2000, and o between 0.4 and 0.8 degrees C
in the countrys three main cities rom 1991
to 2000.
Wide regional variations in rainall have beenw
recorded, but the annual volume has re-
mained largely stable. However, the localised
intensity and unpredictability o the rainall
has increased, causing severe oods.
There have been more droughts in the southw
in recent years, which have tended to last
longer.
The sea level has risen between 2.5 to 3.0cmsw
per decade in the last 50 years, but with re-
gional variations.
Typhoons have reduced in number in the lastw
our decades, but they have become more
intense and are tracking southwards.
El Nio/La Nia weather events have be-w
come more intense in the last 50 years, caus-
ing more typhoons, oods and droughts.
Just in the last twelve months, there have beenunusual weather patterns including storms,
oods, and drought aecting tens o thousands
o people across the country. In the central prov-
inces, local people pointed to the heavier rainall
in the main ooding season at the end o 2007.
In the south o the country, Ho Chi Minh City was
hit in November 2007 by the worst high tides in
48 years, which destroyed some 40 sections o
the dyke around the city.12 Hundreds o school
children were unable to go to school, and hous-
es, businesses and arms were all badly dam-
aged. And in northern Viet Nam, the National Hy-
drometeorological Forecasting Centre reported
that a sustained cold spell in early 2008 lasted
or an unprecedented 38 days, beating the previ-
ous record o 31 days set in 1989. Temperatures
dropped to below 10 degrees C, and reached -2
degrees C in two localities a rarity in Viet Nam.13
clm hng - pa, p
a
11 Interviews with Vietnamese climate scientists; MONRE, National Target Program to respond to Climate Change, Hanoi, mimeo,March 2008; Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, ibid, pp. 3-6
12 Vietnam News, 27 November 200713 Vietnam News, 19 February 2008
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Viet NaM: ClimAte ChAnge, AdAPtAtion And Poor PeoPle
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The cold weather killed more than 60,000 cattle,
destroyed at least 100,000 hectares o rice, and
caused economic losses o US$30m.14
Vietnamese climate scientists blamed much o
the recent unusual weather on the La Nia phe-nomenon. La Nia is the opposite meteorologi-
cally o the better known El Nio, and usually is
associated with a drop in sea surace tempera-
tures in the eastern and central Pacic Ocean by
1.5-2.0 degrees below the average. The latest La
Nia period which started in the third quarter o
2007 and was due to last until July 2008, was par-
ticularly intense and was linked to weather ex-
tremes as ar apart as Australia, China and Chile.
Climate scientists in Viet Nam interviewed or this
report say El Nio and La Nia weather events
will become more intense as a result o global
warming. Many scientists agree, but others
point out that dierent computer climate mod-
els come up with dierent results: some models
have suggested that an increase in GHG in the
atmosphere will increase the requency and in-
tensity o El Nio/La Nias. However, other mod-
els predict little or no change in how they occur.
There is much less doubt that global warming
is very likely to bring an increased risk o disas-
ters to Viet Nam. There will be an increase in the
intensity and/or requency o extreme weather
events such as typhoons, ooding and drought,
whilst other changes will be more gradual like
sea level rises, salt water intrusion and warming
temperatures. All could have a very damaging
eect on poor men and women. There are di-
erent predictions but there is broad consensus
that, i there is no major international eort to re-
duce global greenhouse gas emissions, then:15
Average temperature is expected to increasew
by between 1 to 2 degrees C (over pre-indus-
trial levels) by 2050, and by 2 to 3 degrees by
2100.
Rainall patterns will vary rom region to re-w
gion, but rainall and droughts are likely to in-
crease both in intensity and in area o impact.
Rainall is likely to be less predictable.
Typhoons are expected to increase in inten-w
sity and be subject to more unpredictability.They may also continue the trend o also a-
ecting the south o the country. Storm surge
heights are expected to increase on the
coasts.
The sea level may rise between 30-35cms byw
2050, 40-50cms by 2070 and 60-70cms by
2100.
By 2070 the ow o the countrys two mainw
rivers, the Red River and Mekong River, in theood season is expected to rise by between
7 and 15 per cent, leading to more severe
ooding, and to decline in the dry season by
between 2 and 15 per cent.
Such changes are bound to have a major aect
on virtually all sectors o the economy, but par-
ticularly agriculture. They will also aect dierent
parts o the country dierently.
14 Vietnam News, 26 February 200815 Same sources as in note 11
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Climate ChaNge - PaSt, PreSeNt aNd future
17
Mp f V Nm shwng lkly mps f lm hng hs nry
Viet Nams senior government gures are known to be most worried about sea level rises (SLR). This
is not surprising when a widely-quoted World Bank study in February 2007 estimated that Viet Nam
would be one o the top two countries in the world most at risk rom a one metre rise in sea level by
2100, and the most at risk in East Asia. 16 This is because o the high percentage o its population and
economic activity located in the low-lying Mekong and Red River deltas. (see box on Mekong Delta)
Assuming no adaptation, nearly 11 percent o its population would be aected (nine million people),
the highest percentage in the world. The World Bank also calculated that a one-metre SLR would im-
pact 5 per cent o Viet Nams surace area and 10 per cent o its GDP. This would also have an impact
on a higher percentage o its urban areas than any other East Asian country, a higher percentage o its
wetland areas and a higher percentage o agricultural land. The projections or a 3 and 5-metre SLR are
described as potentially catastrophic.
16 Susmita Dasgupta et al., The Impact o Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A comparative analysis, World Bank Policy ResearchWorking Paper 4136, February 2007.
Lake Sap
Mekon
gRiver
RedR
iver
Me
kong River
Con Dao Islands
Hoang Sa Arch
Truong Sa Arch
Phu Quoc Island
HAINAN
Ha Long Bay
Gulf
of
Tonkin
Gulf
of
Thailand
East
Sea
Cam Ranh Bay
HAI PHONG
THAILAND
CHINA
VIETNAMLAOS
CAMBODIA
VINH
HUE
BEN TRE
QUANG TRI
DANANG
HANOI
NHA TRANG
HOCHIMINH CITY
Nrhs n Nrhws; srms
shs, rghR Rvr dl: srms, s,
nnn, SLR n srm srgs
cnrl ss: srms, s,
shs, SLR
cnrl hghlns: s, rgh, srms
Mkng Rvr dl: Fls, sln
nrsn, srms, lnsls, rghs
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Viet NaM: ClimAte ChAnge, AdAPtAtion And Poor PeoPle
18
The ocial SLR predictions or Viet Nam are roughly in line with the IPCCs 2007 projections or world-
wide rises. But as the IPCC clearly states, their estimates or SLR are a result o thermal expansion only,and do not include the potential rise rom melting ice sheets. Reports in the last twelve months o
the unprecedented melting o the ice sheets in the Arctic and Western Antarctica have strengthened
the views o those scientists who think that SLR will be at least a metre by 2100.17 A ull melting o
Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets would raise sea levels by many metres, but i it happened, it
would most likely take centuries.
innn zn f V Nm fr n-mr SLR
h N
H Phng
H ch Mnh
17 See or example, Richard Black, Forecast or big sea level rise, BBC News Website, 15 April 2008.
Source: World Bank, February 2007
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Climate ChaNge - PaSt, PreSeNt aNd future
19
th Mkng dl
The Mekong Delta has been highlighted by recent IPCC, UN and World Bank reports as an
area o particular concern because o the potentially devastating eects climate change couldbring in the coming decades.18 Stretching rom the Gul o Thailand in the south to the Cam-
bodian border in the west, it is one o the most densely populated areas o Viet Nam and home
to more than 17 million people in its 16 provinces. It produces more than hal o the countrys
rice, and 90 per cent o its rice exports helping to turn Viet Nam into the worlds second larg-
est rice exporter in the world. It accounts or an even larger share o national sh and ruit
production, much o which is now exported to China. Despite impressive growth gures or
the region, our million people are still classied as living in poverty. Many lack basic health
protection and school drop-out rates are high. Only a quarter o classrooms are solidly built.
It is a region already prone to requent and large-scale ooding, sea water intrusion and con-
taminated soil. For example, it is the area most aected by saline intrusion in Viet Nam with an
estimated 1.8 million hectares o salinised land. Typhoons have recently begun to be a prob-
lem. As recently ago as 1994, a report by the Asian Development Bank on climate change was
able to state categorically that the Mekong Delta was ree o typhoons.19 Just 15 years on, that
is clearly no longer the case.
As shown by the May 2008 Cyclone Nargis
in Myanmar (Burma), river deltas are particu-
larly vulnerable to weather extremes. They
are lowlands ormed out o sediment settling
where rivers meet the sea. Most are sinkingnaturally, but in many cases the subsidence is
accelerated by human activities like building
upriver dams. Soil erosion is oten hastened
by the destruction o mangrove orest.
In the particular case o the Mekong Delta, the threats are:
Sea level rise could be anywhere between 30cms and 1 metre by 2100, although the upperw
end is more likely. I it does reach 1 metre, 90 per cent o the Delta would be inundated
every year.
Even by 2030, the sea level rise could expose around 45 per cent o the Deltas land area tow
extreme salinisation and crop damage through ooding.
The dry season ow o the Mekong River is projected to drop by between 2.0 to 4.0 perw
cent by 2070, which would another actor aiding salinisation and water shortages.
Declining crop productivity would particularly aect the spring rice crop, which is expect-w
ed to all by 8 per cent by 2070.
18 The sources or the inormation in this box are UNDP, Human Development Repor t 2007/8, Fighting Climate Change: Human soli-darity in a divided world, Palgrave MacMillan, New York 2007. IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II report, Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability, March 2007, ch. 10. Huu Ninh Nguyen, ibid, and S. Dasgupta et al., ibid.
19 Asian Development Bank, Climate Change in Asia: Vietnam Country Report, July 1994, p. 27.
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Ben Tre is particularly vulnerable to sea water intrusion
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It is one o the provinces o the Mekong Deltawhich unnels the 4,800km-long Mekong River
out into the South China Sea through the so-
called nine dragons. It orms part o the huge
rice basket o the delta which has played a major
role in pulling many Vietnamese people out o
poverty and turning Viet Nam into the worlds
second-largest rice exporter. Ben Tre is also an
area rich in ruit trees and coconuts, boasting the
largest area o nurseries in the country produc-
ing 25 million plants per year. Prawn arming has
recently become a major income earner.
Although the majority o Ben Tres inhabitants
are no longer ocially dened as poor, signi-
cant pockets o poverty remain. It has the high-
est absolute number o poor people o any prov-
ince in the Mekong Delta: more than 245,000
people, equivalent to about 17.5 per cent o its
population o about 1.4 million.
It is particularly vulnerable to sea water intrusionas it is very low-lying and our rivers run through
or by it. A recent study said the province would
be the one most harmed by a one metre rise in
sea level by 2100.20 According to the study:
More than 50 per cent o the land area o thew
province would be aected, equivalent to an
area o 1,130 sq. kms.
More than 750,000 people in the provincew
would be aected, equivalent to 55 per cento the population.
Many more poor people throughout Ben Trew
and the delta would be exposed to increas-
ingly worsening conditions.
The number o villagers aected rises steeplyw
i storm surge is also taken into account.
Bn t -
ca ca
The southern province o Ben Tre is particularly vulnerable to climate change. It is
an island surrounded by rivers and the sea and criss-crossed by two other rivers,
canals and irrigation channels. As the map shows, virtually the whole province lies
less than 1.5 metres above sea level.
20 Jeremy Carew-Reid, Rapid Assessment o the Extent and Impact o Sea Level Rise in Viet Nam, International Centre or Environmen-tal Management, mimeo (no date)
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mapofBentre
Source:CartographicPublishingHouse-Vietnam
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BeN tre - on the frontline of ClimAte ChAnge
23
Interviews conducted in May 2008 with villag-
ers, commune leaders, provincial authorities and
local scientists and experts conrmed the view
that Ben Tre and poor men and women who live
there are particularly vulnerable to the changing
climate:
The province used to be a place without1.
natural disasters, but local people are saying
this is no longer true. Since the late 1990s, ty-
phoons have become more commonplace.
But unlike many other provinces where Viet-
namese people have a long history o coping
with disasters, Ben Tre has little experience to
draw on.
Sea level rise will have ar-reaching impacts2.on the economy and peoples livelihoods as
the province is already suering rom a rapid
increase in salt water intrusion. In a ew parts
o the province near the coast, the concentra-
tion o salt in the water has already reached
30 parts per thousand (ppt) which makes
growing most agricultural products virtually
impossible (the Pacic Ocean or example av-
erages between 32 and 35ppt).
Villagers and scientists say the climate is3.
changing in other ways too. In particular,
unpredictability o the weather, the unusual
timing o the seasons, and the intensity o
weather events is already making arming
activities dicult and in many cases reduc-
ing agricultural productivity.
In the particular case o the Binh Dai dis-4.
trict o Ben Tre, many armers have recently
turned to prawn arming. But the very pooryields in the last two years have drastically
reduced their income, and made them less
able to adapt to the changing weather and
to bounce back rom the weather extremes
that have taken place.
typhns
Ben Tre is not accustomed to typhoons. Local
ocials at the Department o Agriculture and
Rural Development (DARD) say this began to
change in 1997-8, when Ben Tre started to be
bueted by them ater a gap o nearly 100 years.
It is thought that the last serious one to aect
the province took place as ar back as 1904. Butin 1997, a typhoon called Storm No 5 in Viet
Nam hit several south-western provinces, in-
Poor yields rom prawn arming make many less able to cope with the changing climate
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24
cluding Ben Tre. The storm swooped by the near-
shore waters and mainly damaged shing boats
still working at sea.
Storm No 9, also known internationally as Ty-
phoon Durian, was much more destructive. It di-
rectly hit mainland areas o Ben Tre province and
others along the southern coast on the night o
5 December 2006 and the ollowing morning.
Typhoon Durian was highly unusual both orits intensity and or how ar south it had landed.
Many o the villagers were simply not prepared
or the typhoon as unlike many other parts o
Viet Nam, they were simply not used to them.
Binh Dai was one o the worst hit districts o Ben
Tre, which was one o the worst hit provinces
in the Mekong Delta. Just in the commune o
Dai Hoa Loc, nearly 900 houses were totally de-
stroyed and another 1,000 lost their roos. For-tunately, the typhoon was not accompanied by
lasting ooding as the rivers carried the water
out to sea, or the damage would have been
more widespread.
For the whole o the province, 18 people lost
their lives and nearly 700 were injured. Out o
a total household population o about 280,000,
more than 40 per cent (120,000 households)
either lost their homes completely or lost their
roos. The damage to prawn arms, sugar cane,orchards and coconut trees was extensive. Near-
ly 90 school classrooms collapsed and more than
50 health clinics were destroyed. In all, the total
damage amounted to US$200 million, a gure
equivalent to about two-thirds o the provinces
total exports rom 2001-2005.21
The testimony o Mrs. Xoan (page 26) shows how
the typhoon can aect women disproportion-
ately. She is a widow living with her daughterand three grandchildren. The main amily income
21 Figures or the destruction in Binh Dai were provided by local ocials.
80 to 90 per cent o amilies in Binh Dai can not aord to build houses with proper walls and roofng.
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BeN tre - on the frontline of ClimAte ChAnge
25
comes rom her daughters husband who works
as a sherman in another commune. Ater the
typhoon, they had to live under a makeshit roo
o water coconut leaves or longer than other
amilies, waiting or her son-in-law to rebuild the
house. Because o her limited assets, she cannotraise any credit or capital to improve her income
and diversiy rom sugar cane. Her only income
this year has been as a casual labourer cutting
grass at US$2 a day. She is very concerned that
she does not have the resources to build a con-
crete house or a concrete shelter or when the
next typhoon hits the area.
In May 2008 Mrs. Xoan and other villagers in
the Binh Dai district were still talking earully o
storm No 9, and were very worried that it may be
repeated soon. It is still, in the words o several
o the villagers and village leaders, very much on
our minds. Some householders say they are bet-
ter prepared as they put sandbags on the roo
or tie the roo down when there is a warning o
typhoons. But many, like Mrs. Xoan, are not. They
say only 10 to 20 per cent o the houses in the
villages are made o concrete, and complain that
the ailure o the prawn arming makes it even
more dicult to aord proper walls and roong.
Several villagers showed considerable resource-
ulness in coping with Storm No 9, including one
amily nding protection behind a low-walled
pigsty or several days (sheltering behind a high-
er concrete wall would have been more danger-
ous as it may have collapsed on them). However,
most o the amilies interviewed said they still
did not have adequate protection and had not
received training in preparing or typhoons.
Scientists rom the Ministry o Natural Resources
and Environment (MONRE) and the Institute o Me-
teorology, Hydrology and Environment (INMHE)
say they are concerned about the increased pos-
sibility o more intense typhoons hitting Viet Nam
in the uture, and o their moving urther south-
wards. The Governments National Target Program
warns specically o this danger and the increased
risk to local communities in coastal areas.22
The local commune authorities say they are mak-
ing preparations or more typhoons by building
local evacuation centres or poorer amilies and
encouraging better-resourced individual ami-
lies to build their own shelters. However, both
they and local Red Cross ocials say much more
needs to be done in awareness raising, capacity
building and preparing or typhoons in a prov-
ince which does not have a history o adaptation
and disaster risk reduction measures.
22 MONRE, National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change, p. 10.
The low-walled pigsty became a sae shelter or Mr. Dao Van
Thuong, 63, and his amily during Storm No 9, 2006
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26
W r vry sr h yphn wll hppn gn
m. ny t Xa, 59, B P a, ta t c, B da c
It was 6 o clock in the morning. We were all asleep. The wind was getting stronger and stronger
every minute. My grandchildren and I quickly ran to the back o the house and took shelter between
our concrete water containers. Ater two hours the wind died down. When I opened my eyes, I could
not believe what I was seeing. My house and all the houses in the entire village had totally collapsed.
I saw everyone crying and I also cried.
Even now whenever my six-year-old grandson
hears the sound o the rain, he runs inside the
house and manages to put all his clothes in a
bag. He really wants us to leave the house per-
haps because he can never orget the day the
typhoon hit in 2006. We all got soaked, we elt
extremely cold and he was so rightened.
Most o our urniture was broken. On the day we
were only able to take the TV with us because it
is the most valuable thing we had in the house.
We were inormed about the typhoon rom the radio and the loud speakers. In act every year we
had typhoons but we did not expect the big typhoon like the one in 2006, so the preparation or that
typhoon was not good enough. To be honest, I have never seen any big typhoon like that beore.
Even my ather who was then 85 years old had never witnessed the huge typhoon like that.
Each household was given emergency ood and 5 million dong (US$310) by the local authorities or
rebuilding the house. However, we spent only 2 million dong on ours, because we were able to use
most o the materials that we already had. It took us 20 days to complete because there is only one
man in the amily, my son-in law, so we had to wait or him to fnish the rebuilding work that he did
or his parents house. During that time we lived outside. We set up our bamboo poles and put up
a cover made o water coconut leaves to live there temporarily. Every household in this village lived
in the same conditions.
We are very, very scared the typhoon will happen again. Like most o the houses in the village, ours
is not made o concrete. We need a typhoon shelter like the ones I have seen on television. But we do
not have enough money or one.
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BeN tre - on the frontline of ClimAte ChAnge
27
Sl wr nrsn: y
Scientists at Ben Tres two main government
departments dealing with climate change, De-
partment o Science and Technology (DOST)and DARD, are extremely concerned about the
signicant increase in the amount o salt get-
ting into the rivers, canals and other water sys-
tems in recent years. There is no agreement as
to how large a role rising sea levels is playing in
this process o salinisation. However, whatever
the exact balance o causes, the key points are
that local leaders and villagers are already very
worried about the eect higher concentrations
o salt are having on their livelihoods, and sec-ondly, with the sort o predictions or SLR in the
coming years, extreme salinisation particularly
in the coastal areas o the Mekong Delta will be-
come an even greater problem, and especially
or poorer amilies who have less resources and
options to be able to adapt.
Ocials at the DARD say that the combination
o more drought in the dry season (usually rom
December to April in Ben Tre) and the sea wa-
ter travelling higher up the rivers has combined
both to increase the amount o salt in the water
and to carry the salted water into areas not pre-
viously aected by salinisation. Ocial gures
show that rom 2002-5, the saline content in
three rivers (Cua Dai, Ham Luong and Co Chien)
increased signicantly in the three months rom
February to April as measured at ve stations
throughout the province. For the month o May,
it had dropped slightly in our o the ve stations
and increased at one. DARD ocials say that at
the end o the dry season in May 2007 the salty
water covered about two-thirds o the province
and had travelled about 60kms up the rivers rom
the sea a rise o 10 kms in the last ve years.
They also say the concentration o salt in the
rivers has increased to 4ppt in some parts, the
point at which rice cannot survive. In other ar-
eas not previously aected, it has reached 1 or
2ppt which seriously aects orchards and nurs-
eries. Ocial DARD gures or economic losses
as a result o increased salinisation are alarming:
in 2003 salt water intrusion caused 12 billion
dongs worth o damage (US$750,000) in the
province, and 16,000 households had no resh
water. By 2005 that gure had risen to 570 billion
Many amilies have to buy resh water due to increased salinisation
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Viet NaM: ClimAte ChAnge, AdAPtAtion And Poor PeoPle
28
dong (US$37m), mainly due to loss o produc-
tivity rom rice elds, ruit trees, coconut trees
and sugar cane. The number o households
without resh water that year had increased
to 110,000 out o a total number in Ben Tre o
about 280,000.
Press reports in national and international me-
dia in early 2008 conrm that the problem is not
conned to Ben Tre province. The nearby prov-
inces o Tien Giang, Ca Mau and Kien Giang all re-
ported rice elds and aquaculture ponds being
aected by salt water intrusion, causing millions
o dong o damage. In the orchard area o Ben
Tre, high levels o salt water had also threatened
12,300ha o ruit trees in the Cho Lach District.23
A local coconut armer in the town o Phuoc
Long more than 40kms rom the sea on the Ham
Luong tributary in the north-west o Ben Tre said
in April that the sea water was getting higher
and higher every year, threatening his livelihood.
The sea water had reached Phuoc Long as early
as December just ater the rainy season. The
river is changing, we are sure, he said. Its salt wa-
ter is stealing our land. Every year it comes higher
and higher.24
In some communities in Ben Tre, they now have
to use salt water to do their washing so that they
have enough resh water let or drinking. One
villager in the Binh Dai district said the salt water
now remained or as long as eight months o the
year. Beore, we had six months o saline water and
six months o resh water.said Luong Van Huynh,
57, Binh Loc Commune, Binh Dai District, Ben Tre.
Now there are eight months o salt water and only
our months resh water, but the water also tastes
saltier during the resh water season.
Another said she could no longer grow grass to
eed the cows because o the salt content. Thereis too much salt in the land here or grass to grow.
said Hoang My Le, 50, Hamlet 1, Binh Thanh 1,
Thanh Tri Commune, Binh Dai District, Ben Tre. I
wish there was somewhere I could go to grow grass
to raise cows
The increased salinity is causing widespread
problems or the Dai Hoa Loc commune as ex-
plained by the vice-chairman o the Peoples
Committee, Ha Minh Ho:
The issue o increased salinity is a real problem or
our commune. This year at one point there were 30
parts per thousand (ppt) o salt in the water com-
pared to 11-12 ppt fve years ago. When it reaches
30 ppt, there is very little you can do except wait or
the rainy season to come and take the salt water
back down again to the sea.
We are not sure o the reason, but it may be to do
with the strong winds blowing the sea water higher
up the rivers. The sea water also remains or longer.
For example there is not enough time or some veg-
etables to grow, because the period when there is
no salt is shorter.
The unpredictability o the salt content also makes
prawn arming more dicult. You need to regulate
the salt content about 15 ppt or baby prawns,
23 Vietnam News Agency, Salt water threatens arms in Mekong Delta, 12 March 2008.24 Greg Torode, Sinking Feeling: As sea levels rise, salt water is threatening to devastate crops and livelihoods in the Mekong Delta,
South China Morning Post, 8 April 2008.
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I dont know why the weather is changing...a l
va hy, 57, B lc C, B da dc, B
t. It seems more unpredictable: it rains less and when it
rains it keeps going for two weeks; when it is hot it seems to
last longer as well.
then 10 ppt or more mature prawns, but it is di-
fcult to do this when the saline content is high.
For the last three to fve years, we have also had to
buy drinking water. The wells are much saltier since
the typhoon in 2006.
Most experts think the main reason or the rapid
increase in salinisation in the area was due to
the reshwater not coming down the rivers in
sucient quantities, particularly in the rainy
season, to wash the salty water back down the
estuaries into the sea. Deorestation, widespread
upstream irrigation, increased land use and hy-
droelectric dams are most likely to be the main
causes. But one government scientist at MONRE
said sea level rise is already one important ac-
tor. He pointed out that the general sea level rise
or Viet Nam was measured at between 2.5 to
3.0cms per decade in the last ty years (a total
o between 12.5 and 15cms), and that one sta-
tion had measured a rise o as much as 20cms in
the last orty years.
chngs n h whr: y
cy
Every single person interviewed in Ben Tre in May
2008 said local weather patterns were changing.
Dierent interviewees stressed dierent aspectso these changes, but all concurred that in the
last ew years the weather was becoming less
easy to predict and more prone to extremes.
The most obvious example was the unusual ty-
phoon in December 2006, but there were other
examples cited:
An increase in the period o droughtw
An increase in the intensity o rainall whenw
it rains
An increase in the unpredictability o thew
rainy season, and particularly an earlier start
to the season, making the timing o planting
more dicult.
The eects o the climate changing on the lives
o poor men and women in Binh Dai district are
various. In particular, prawn armers testied that
the unpredictability o the weather made it more
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30
dicult both to regulate the salt content in the
ponds and to know when to introduce the baby
prawns into the ponds. Others armers spoke o
declining rice productivity due to longer peri-
ods o drought. Their ability to cope depended
on a whole array o actors, but many had beenorced to seek o-arm employment as labour-
ers. Poorer amilies clearly had ewer options to
adapt to the eects o the weather changes.
The perceptions o poor villagers living in the
Binh Dai district are supported to some extent
by ocial gures. Usually Ben Tre has a rainy
season roughly rom May to November, ollowed
by a dry season rom December to April the ol-
lowing year. But local data or rainall in Binh Dai
show that in 2005-6 or example, the dry season
and the rainy season did start unusually early - in
November and March respectively. Indeed, near-
ly 80mm o rain ell in March 2006, a record or
the period 1987-2006 and our times as much as
the next highest gure recorded in 1991. How-
ever, the data also show that the monthly rainall
during the rainy season o 2006 was about the
same as the 20-year average. But the data
cannot show the intensity o the rainall
within each month so the villagers perceptions
may still be correct.
DOST ocials say that or the whole o the prov-
ince o Ben Tre there has recently been more
rainall in the rainy season and more drought inthe dry season, the seasons have been starting
earlier, and the rainall is becoming less predict-
able. Ocial gures show that or 2005-6, the
dry season did start unusually earlier (in No-
vember) as did the rainy season (in March). The
rainall or each month rom June to September
was very high (a record or each month or the
period 1988-2006), and the yearly total o 2,518
mm was the second highest recorded over the
same period.
DOST ocials also say that more rainall in the
rainy season is causing a rise in the water levels
in the province. In the last ve years the greater
volume o river water combined with the high
tide has resulted in a rise in the water level o
about 15cm-20cm above the average level com-
pared to previous years. According to the DARD,
this alone causes on average damages o about
100 billion dong (US$6m) a year.
Usually, it ooded once a year around November time. This
year, it has ooded four to ve times already.a ha my
l, 50, ha 1, B ta 1, ta t C, B da
dc, B t.
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31
It has been more difcult for me to nd work in the last two years, working
as a prawn farming keeper in the surrounding communes.a ny
ta na, 39, B lc C, B da dc, B t
Too much rain and too much sun make the prawns get sick easily. The
owner lost the prawns so I lost my job. Earlier this year my wife and el-
dest daughter had to go to Ho Chi Minh City to nd jobs because I dont
get a regular income.
As already discussed, it is not yet possible to say
i these individual weather extremes are due to
global warming. They are more likely to be linked
to the cycle o El Nio and La Nia weather pat-
terns. However, whatever the causes, the recent
changes in the weather give a oretaste o what
is likely to happen in the years to come as a result
o climate change, and they show the devastat-
ing eect it has on poor amilies.
Prwn frmng: a a k
The Binh Dai district is seen as a particularly suit-
able area or prawn arming with the combina-
tion o resh, brackish and sea water within its
boundaries. In the Dai Hoa Loc commune or
example, out o total area o 2,300 hectares, by
2005 nearly 1,300 hectares o it were dedicated
to prawn arming. According to the communes
vice-chairman, ve years ago 80 per cent o
the villagers were rice armers, but by 2008 the
same percentage were now prawn armers or
involved as labourers in the dierent types o in
prawn arming.25
The main reason or the rapid switch was the
boom in international demand or prawns, par-
ticularly in European and US markets. Villagers
said the prots rom prawn arming were about
ten times those o rice arming, while one recent
study put the gure higher. It calculated that the
average rice crop gave a prot o about US$190
per hectare, whilst or prawn arming it could
reach between US$620 and US$940.26 Another
reason many small armers changed rom rice to
prawn arming has been the increasingly brack-
ish quality to the water, which is good or breed-
ing prawns but not or rice.
25 There are dierent models o prawn arming in Binh Dai, including intensive, semi-intensive, semi-industrial and integrated shrimpand rice arms.
26 Center or Development and Integration, Trade Liberalisation and shrimp arming o the poor in Ben Tre province, mimeo, Hanoi,May 2006, p.7.
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In the early years, the dramatic increase in in-
come helped to lit many people out o poverty
in the district. In Dai Hoa Loc commune, the
poverty rate was reduced to about 14 per cent,
whilst the nearby commune o Thanh Phuoc be-
came the richest commune in the district.
However, by May 2008 many o the villagers were
acing a very signicant drop in income in the
last two years and were probably back to being
classied as poor. O the ten prawn armers inter-
viewed, only one was coping with the downturn
and that was because he had a greater pond
area, and two ponds instead o the usual one.
The common story was o drastic losses which
had let the armers deeply in debt, seeking o-
arm activities and in some cases keen to move
out o prawn arming.
47-year-old Nguyen Chi Cong rom the Thanh Tri
commune was typical. He said he had made a
prot o about US$3,000 a year or the rst two
years but had made a loss or the last three years.
He was still managing to cope by living o the
prots o the rst two years. He still wanted topersevere with prawn arming because o the
possibility o high prots, but other armers in-
terviewed wanted either to switch to sh arm-
ing or move back to rice. One o the obstacles
was that it is very dicult to revert to rice be-
cause prawn arming has raised the saline con-
tent in the ground. Experts believe that it can
make many years or rice to be able to be culti-
vated again.
Villagers in the two communes o Dai Hoa Loc
and Thanh Tri said only about one in ten o
prawn arming households were not making
a loss. They blamed a series o actors or the
poor yields, including the unpredictability o the
weather, diseases aecting the prawns, polluted
water, and other environmental changes. They
also pointed out that with abandonment o rice
arming (which oten produced enough to eed
them or about six months o the year), they now
had to nd the income to buy rice or twelve
months o the year.
The experience o poorer amilies in Binh Dai
would seem to support the conclusions o vari-
ous studies o prawn arming in Viet Nam and
other parts o the world that poorly resourced
armers can oten end up worse o.27 Prawn
arming requires signicant investments o capi-
27 Centre or Development and Integration, ibid. See also or example the Lampung declaration o 6 September 2007 against Indus-trial Shrimp Aquaculture, signed by local communities and NGOs rom 17 dierent countries, which included widening incomegaps and ecological damage amongst its criticism o shrimp arming. Available at: http://www.orestpeoples.org/documents/prv_sector/shrmp_ms/lampung_decl_sept07_eng.shtml
Losses rom prawn arming have made poorer amilies less able to cope with extreme
weather events
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33
tal, careul technical and eed management con-
trols, constant dredging, and ideally three ponds
one or the prawns, one or waste and one or
sediment deposition. Most o the poorer arm-
ers interviewed only had one pond o less than
one hectare. They also oten have to sell theirprawns at a lower price to traders, whilst the bet-
ter-o can sell straight to the processing com-
panies. Borrowing money is particularly risky as
there will be no money to pay o the loans in the
event o crop ailure.
The impact o the downturn was widespread.
Mr Dang Van Vong rom the Binh Loc Commune
had been orced to sell o most o his 13-hectare
plot o land to be able to pay o the bank loan
he had taken out or prawn breeding. Another
interviewee, Mr Le Van Thien, had lost about 10
million dong (US$625) a year or the last three
years rom prawn arming, and was coping by
borrowing money rom riends. Mrs Pham Thi
Hoa had lost everything in the last two years o
prawn arming, but was surviving rom the in-
come o her two sons who were delivering coco-
nut shells and ice cubes in the neighbourhood.
What has the plight o poor prawn armers inBen Tre to do with climate change? Firstly, the
changing climate and its unpredictability make
poorer amilies particularly susceptible to in-
come loss rom already risky livelihoods like
prawn arming. Secondly, the losses rom prawn
arming have made poorer amilies less able to
cope with extreme weather events. As one arm-
er complained, the act that he had been losing
money prior to the December 2006 typhoon
let him unable to build a stronger house with
concrete walls or when the next typhoon came
along. And nally and most importantly, the ex-
ample o prawn arming shows that planning or
adapting to the eects o climate change needs
a combined policy approach which includes
I had to sell 10 hectares of my 13-hectare plot recently to pay
back part of the loan I had borrowed from the bank. I am in debt
because prawn farming in the last few years has not brought
me any prot.a da va v, 54, B lc C,
B da dc, B t.
Bad weather is among the reasons why I am losing money.
The rainy season came early this year. The unusual changes
from sunny to rainy made the ponds temperature change from
hot and cold suddenly. Three days like that and the prawns are
badly affected.
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34
both a sustainable livelihoods programme and
disaster risk management.
apn n rng lm
rsln
National and local authorities in the Mekong
Delta are beginning to integrate climate resilient
policies into wider programmes o coastal zone
management. In some areas o the delta dykes
are being strengthened or heightened, man-
groves are being planted to improve protection
rom storm surges, and some homes are being
built on bamboo stilts. In some cases women
and children are learning to swim and lie jacketsare being issued.28
Even though collective building and mainte-
nance o sea dykes has now been replaced by
a tax or coastal protection, the inrastructure
or sea deences has improved in recent years.
However, poorer households lack the ability o
individual better-o amilies to cope with disas-
ters and absorb risks.29
Studies o rice arming in other areas o the Me-
kong Delta show that small-scale armers have
been adopting a series o measures in part to
adapt to climate risks.30 These measures are usu-
ally taken by individual armers rather than at the
community or national level, especially where
there is no community or provincial planning.
They include the construction and maintenance
o small-scale irrigation systems or embank-
ments to protect their armland rom oods, and
the use o alternative crops or rice seed varieties.
For example, they oten plant a shorter-cycle rice
seed variety in response to climate orecasts.
However, in Ben Tre creating climate resilience
seemed to be at a very early stage. With the help
o nancing rom the Global Environment Facility
(GEF), some initial steps are being taken to en-
hance the awareness o local communities and
improve their capacity to adapt to climate chang-
es.31 Dierent types o coconuts and ruit trees
more resistant to saline intrusion are being de-
veloped, and some dykes are being increased in
height. But its scope is at present limited: it has a
budget o just US$30,000, and directly or indirectly
involves about 2,000 members o one commune.
Local government ocials and scientists are
the rst to say there is a still a long way to go
in terms o increasing the limited awareness and
understanding o climate change impacts in
the province, improving the scientic data base
and climate modelling, and working with local
communities to understand the adaptation op-
tions. As one local Red Cross ocial expressed
it, Everyone here in Ben Tre needs to know more
about climate change the authorities, govern-
ment departments, the communes, the villages,
the NGOs and the media. This is not someone
elses problem in another part o the world. It is
ours and all o Viet Nams.
28 UNDP, Fighting climate change, pp. 165.29 Chaudhry and Ruysschaert, ibid, p. 6-7.30 Suppakorn Chinvanno et al, Climate risks and rice arming in the lower Mekong countries, AIACC Working Paper no. 40, 2006.31 The GEF programme is VN/05/009, unded by GTZ.
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Like many provinces, Quang Tri has enjoyed high
economic growth rates in recent years and the
number o poor people has declined signicant-
ly as a result, at an average rate o 2 per cent a
year.32 However, the poverty rate or the province
is still one o the highest in Viet Nam. Inant mor-
tality in 2006 or example was 36 per 1,000, the
ourth highest in the country, while lie expec-
tancy in 2004 was the sixth lowest at 66 years
o age.
The province is also environmentally ragile.
It is not just ooding and drought. A hot and
dry strong wind known as the Lao wind blows
through the province rom late April to mid Sep-
tember setting the temperature above 37 de-
gree Celcius some days. The wind dries up trees,
plants, ponds and lakes, increasing the risks o
re. Deorestation, saline intrusion and regular
typhoons compound the ragility.
Moreover, Quang Tri is unusual in having the
highest rate o ordnance and toxic chemicals let
over by the US military. The 17th parallel, which
divided Viet Nam between 1956 and 1975, runsthrough the province. Quang Tri was devastated
during the war. Forests were destroyed and toxic
chemicals which remain in the soil have let a
terrible legacy o illnesses which were still aect-
ing livelihoods in May 2008.
Hai Lang district is in the south-eastern part o
the province. Just over 100,000 people live there,
spread throughout 21 communes, more than
Qng tr - l f
The central coastal province o Quang Tri is one o the most vulnerable to ood-
ing in the whole o Viet Nam, and Hai Lang district is the most vulnerable within
the province. Villagers have a long history o working with local government and
mass organisations to cope with the ooding, reducing its impact and chang-
ing their production cycles to adapt to it. However, many o the poorer men and
women in the district are still very vulnerable to the extremes and vagaries o theweather which they say have become more pronounced in recent years.
32 Poverty Task Force, Quang Tri: Participatory Poverty Assessment 2003, Hanoi, January 2004, p. 3.
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Mp f Qng tr
Source: Cartographic Publishing House - Vietnam
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QuaNg tri - living with floods
37
hal o which are below sea level. Poverty is
widespread at about 22 per cent o the popula-
tion. The district is a mixture o low land areas,
shing communities and upland or hill land ar-
eas. Nearly twenty household interviews were
carried out in three dierent villages to representthe dierent types o location: in Tram Son (up-
land) and Luong Dien (low land) both belong-
ing to the Hai Son commune, and in My Thuy
(coastal) o the Hai An commune.
The main economic activity o My Thuy is shing;
or Luong Dien it is paddy (wet rice cultivation)
and or Tram Son it is more diverse with some
paddy, more vegetable crops and orestry ac-
tivities. The changing climate has had dierent
impacts on the dierent communities, but the
message was clear: the ooding and storms
were coming at dierent times o the year and
were ar less easy to predict, and the dry season
(usually May to August) was getting hotter.
The lowland area is highly exposed to the ood-
ing during the heavy rain period (known as the
main oods), which takes place historically rom
August/September until November in this part
o Viet Nam. People are used to this type o
ooding, which is part o the production cycle
and has the positive consequence o provid-
ing sediment with high nutrient content. In the
1990s many amilies started to grow two crops
o rice per year, the rst one roughly rom Janu-
ary to early May, and the second rom early June
to early September beore the autumn storms
and oods.
However, the production cycle is very tight, andchanges in the arrival time o the rains or ex-
tended drought oten causes reduced output
or even no production at all. For those amilies
dependent on rice arming, the recent changes
in the rain patterns had caused extreme hard-
ship. Rain coming at the wrong time in the last
two to three years was the common complaint.
Many armers said twenty or thirty years ago, or
example, light early ood known as tieu man
came regularly in May-June. But in 2006, there
had been early ooding in February; in 2007 the
ooding came in April, and then again in April
in 2008.
For example, Ho Si Thuan and his wie Nguyen
Thi Theo rom the lowland village o Luong Dien
lost their spring rice crop in February this year
due to the cold period, replanted the rice seed-
lings but then lost the crop again when the sum-
mer rains came early in April. The local authori-
ties in Hai Lang say about 50-60 per cent o the
rice crop and other crops had been lost this year
in the whole o the district due to the cold spellollowed by the early tieu man. Moreover, both
they and local villagers say that last year during
The changing climate makes it dicult or fshermen to predict when it is sae to go to sea
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Viet NaM: ClimAte ChAnge, AdAPtAtion And Poor PeoPle
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W n knw why h whr s hngng
46-year-old Ho Si Thuan and his wie Nguyen Thi Theo live in the lowland village o Luong
Dien in the Hai Son commune. They have a rice paddy, but they also work a second rice paddy
or another amily and grow some vegetables. They have ve sons. All their sons can swim.
Thuan can swim, because he says that i you live in Luong Dien and dont know how to swim,you may die. Theo cannot swim as she says she is too scared to get into the water to learn.
The requency o the ooding is worse com-
pared to ten years ago. 1999 was the worst year,
but last year was pretty bad. In October we had
water up to our knees or our days. It used to
only ood twice a year, but now it is our times
a year. It is starting earlier in the year too.
Last year we made sure we harvested the rice
beore the main ooding season, but we lost
our cassava, sweet potatoes and beans.
It was so cold in February that we lost our rice
crop, then we planted again but it rained heav-
ily in April so we lost it again.
When the ooding comes, we put everything up on the platorm ood, things to cook with, even
the pigs and chicken we put in cages up there. Unortunately last year we lost the cage with the
chickens in it to the oods.
The children were very rightened especially as the wind and the rain were so strong. Someone rom
the rescue team came with a boat and took them to the school, which is stronger and made o
concrete.
We have training every year or the oods. The trainer is rom the commune. We take enough ood
or seven days. We know we have to prepare well or the oods. But we could do with more boats
and lie jackets. We cannot move rom the area because it is too expensive to buy land elsewhere.
We dont know why the weather is changing. We dont know why our arming is being so badly a-
ected. We are very worried about losing our home, about losing our crops, about going hungry.
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QuaNg tri - living with floods
39
the main ooding, there were six incidences o
ooding in the district compared to the usual
two or three.
Poor men and women in the upland village o
Tram Son were also badly aected by the chang-ing weather, even though most o them do not
rely on rice arming to the same extent as the
lowland communities. In their case, the unpre-
dictability o the weather, and in particular the
cold spell in February this year and the early ar-
rival o the oods, has devastated their garden
crops like peanuts, cassava or peppers. As they
live higher up, it is oten ash oods causing
landslides that are their main problem. The lead-
er o the Hai Son commune said the declining
productivity over the last three years had caused
the vast majority o upland villagers to rely more
on orestry activities. Some were even going
back to trying to nd scrap metal let over by the
Americans 30 years ago, even though they had
to walk several kilometres urther into the orest
and there was much less metal around.
58-year-old Le Thi Nay lives with her amily in the
upland village o Tram Son, which belongs to the
Hai Son commune. She has lived all her lie in the
village, and cannot remember worse weather
than in the last three years. Like many villagers,
she and her amily have had to resort to switch-
ing crops rom rice or seeking o-arm income in
order to compensate or the loss o income rom
agriculture caused by the vagaries and extremes
o the weather. Most o the villagers in Tram Son
are now relying on orestry activities, such as col-
lecting bundles o rewood, orest stewardship
schemes, making wooden brooms, or using met-al detectors to nd military hardware let over by
the Americans more than 30 years ago.
Twenty years ago, being a armer seemed extremely easy as the
weather was predictable it wasnt so hot in the dry season and
there was less ooding. Last year our frst crop rice was aected
by early ooding. We could only harvest about 200kgs, and it
was poor quality so we had to eed it to the pigs. This year, it wasvery cold and the rice seedlings died.
Part o the year we now plant sweet potatoes in the feld where
we were growing rice. There are several reasons or this: we can
eat hal o them and keep hal or the winter, and we can eed
the leaves to the pigs. Sweet potatoes can survive the dry season
better than rice but even they cannot survive severe ooding.
We have had a special wooden platorm in our house since
1990. About a third o the households in this village have a plat-
orm, but in the lower-lying villages, all o them have it. We makesure we have enough ood or ten days when the main ooding
season comes.
We are very concerned about the weather. We may even suer
hunger this year because we havent had a rice crop. So many
people in our village now go up to orest as rice arming is not
working. They go up to collect wood, or to try and fnd the scrap
metal or ordnance let by the
Americans during the war.
I havent been there or
several years, but theysay it is much more di-
fcult now to fnd any
metal. You can earn up
to 100,000 dong (US$6)
a day doing that, but it
can be very dangerous.
We dont have to go to the
orest as our sons work as la-
bourers, so we live o their
income.
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The harrowing human impact o the unusual
weather on poor villagers in Tram Son cannot be
understated. 49-year-old Le Thi Huong was hav-
ing to deal both with the loss o her crops and
with the eect o the weather on her 12-year-
old daughter, who had inherited mental healthproblems rom her ather who had been aected
by the use o Agent Orange during the war. Her
daughter is very sensitive to the weather. When
the weather changes, she cries all night and cannot
sleep, Huong said.
49-year-old Mr. Nguyen Van Cung lost most o
his crops this year due to the weather and to
insects eating them. He says there are more in-
sects around because o the climate changing.He also lost his peanut crops as rst the cold
weather and early rains destroyed his winter/
spring crop, and then the early summer rains
ruined his second crop. We are supposed to be
harvesting the peanuts now, but there simply arent
any, he said.
The coastal commune o Hai An is particularly
sensitive to extremes o weather or unpredict-
able rainall and winds. About hal o the com-
munes income comes rom shing. Like many
communities in Quang Tri province, in recent
years poorer shermen using smaller boats have
been suering rom declining sh populations
near the coast.33 Villagers spoke o no longer
being able to predict the weather rom looking
at the sky and the tides. Typhoons in particular
were much more dicult to anticipate. Several
testimonies also spoke o the reduced number
o possible shing days over the last two years
because o the dramatic changes in the weather,
including higher waves and wind, unusual cold
spells and rainy periods. In particular, they raised
the recent stormy weather in March and April
which had caused severe hardship. Many ami-
lies had other part-time jobs or economic activi-
ties to all back on, but or some, going heavily
into debt was the only option.
33 Poverty Task Force, ibid, p. 18
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QuaNg tri - living with floods
41
i m vry wrr b h whr hngng
39-year-old Vo Viet Gia lives with his wie and ve sons in the coastal village o My Thuy, Hai
An Commune. His main occupation is working as a shermans mate on a boat owned by
another villager. I the boat gets a good catch, he can earn between 50,000 and 70,000 dong
(US$3-US$4) a day. When they cannot go shing, he earns about 30,000 dong (US$2) a day asa labourer or porter.
I am very worried about the weather changing
in the last two years. My house is not very secure
so I may lose it when the wind gets so strong,
and I cannot go out fshing as much to earn an
income.
The wind is heavier on the sea, and there have
been more storms. Normally the storms start
in September or October, but recently we have
had storms in March and April. We have not
been able to go out fshing as much in the last
two years because o the weather.
The cold period this year was the worst I can
remember in my lie. We cant fsh when it is so
cold. I lost about 20 days work in April. My sons
could not bear the cold. We were given more
clothes by the community and our relatives, but
the clothes were oten too thin.
I had to work more as a porter and a labourer, and the income is less. Lie is dicult as my wie has
had TB or three years, although she has had treatment or the last eight months and is eeling bet-
ter. I have a kidney problem, and I have to pay or some o the treatment.
Normally we have to borrow money rom relatives to survive. I am in debt about 4 million dong
(US$250) at the moment.
We know about climate change and how it is caused by human activity. We have to have a greener
environment and plant more pine and indigo trees to stop erosion and protect us rom the wind.
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Detailed studies o how villagers in Quang Tri
have coped in the past with extreme weather
events, and in particular the devastating oods
in 1999, have shown that poorer men and wom-
en have much less capacity to recover and adapt
than better-resourced amilies.34 This is because
low-income amilies have:
worse housing, which oten gets more dam-w
aged in storms or ooding. They use more re-
sources to repair and strengthen their houses
as a proportion o their total resources.
greater vulnerability to diseases aectingw
their animals and lack adequate sanitation.
much less diversied household economyw
and are more dependent on rice production
in the lowlands or vegetables in the uplands.
more rom health problems, resulting in lackw
o household income rom o-arm labour,
high medical costs and indebtedness.
little access to credit so are oten orced tow
take inormal short-term loans with high
interest rates to secure emergency basic
needs.
The key point is that the diculties aced by
poor people are a result not just o the oods,
but o the multiple stresses linked to their house-
hold livelihood situation. This was clearly borne
out by the testimonies collected rom the three
villages as a result o the latest weather events.
Those with a diversied household economy,
o-arm work opportunities, larger boats and/or better health were much better able to nd
emergency income to cope and recover.
Women in the villages o Hai Lang were oten
hardest hit by the ooding. As with many other
climate-induced disasters in Asian countries,
more women than men died as a result o the
ooding. There a