Venture capital market trends 2016

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Venture Capital market trends

2016

MoscowJune 2016

CONTENT

2

1. Introduction

2. Global VC trends

3. Russian VC market

4. Discussion

RMG partners spun off from oldest Russian investment banks.

20+ years of experience on the financial market and a proven trackrecord in value creation solutions for Midcap private companies.

As a member of the global M&A Worldwide network provides with anaccess to the international markets and cross-sectorial expertise

As a Member of NAIMA promotes Private equity / Venture Capitaland other alternative investments

History Evolution

1993-2006Brokerage & stock market

2007-2009 Asset management

2010-2013 Strategy & M&A

2013-2015 Direct investments

2016 – nowValue management

VALUE CREATION

M&A

FUNDRAISING

20+ YEARSEXPERIENCE

STRATEGY

LONG-TERM PARTNERSHIP

VC & PE INVESTMENTS

NETWORK IN 45

COUNTRIES

CROSS-BORDER

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VC|PE market research

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Volume: 20+ pages

Languages: EN, RU

Release: Each quarter / 4 issues per year

Formats: Electronic

Paper size: A4

Free subscription

RMG client database East-West Digital News (EWDN) subscribers database RMG online resources, RMG mobile application (EN, RUS) Partnership with Marchmont Innovation News, Moscow Seed

Fund, Bargan News, NAIMA and others (EN, RUS). Media partners’ support offers active links on company web-site following the report location

RMG Media database (EN, RUS)

Russian Venture Capital Market Overview is focused on International and Russian target audience: Investors: investment funds, Venture & Private Equity funds, banks, financial groups, family offices & other Venture entrepreneurs, startups Governmental and market development institutes Consultants and service providers on financial market Non-profit organizations and associations, state institutions, state controlling entities, stakeholders

The primary goal of this report is to make Russia’s VC/PE sector more alluring for both foreign and domestic investors and increase the efficiency of contacts between investors and innovative companies seeking financing. The main barrier to growth of Russia’s venture capital market is the lack of objective information. Foreign and domestic investors do not have sufficient reliable data and analytical materials on innovative markets and projects in Russia. This slows down the search for investment targets, makes investment decisions more difficult, increases costs for project analysis and due diligence, and restricts the size of the pool of potential venture investors

KEY PARAMETERS MAIN MEDIA & DISTRIBUTION PARTNERS

TARGET AUDIENCE

VC|PE market research

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Hi-Tech Revolution is taking place

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Hi-Tech DISRUPTION

FINTECH AUTOTECH

REAL ESTATE TECH

CYBERSECURITY

AEROSPACE

NEUROTECH

ENERGYTECH

IOT / ROBOTICS

BIG / CLEVER DATA

FMCGSUBSCRIPTION

INDUSTRIALTECH BIOTECH

ADD TECH ED TECH

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wQ4’15 SAW A RESET IN FUNDING AND DEAL LEVELS AND THAT CONTINUED IN Q1’16

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2015 WAS THE HIGHEST SINCE 2000 AND ALTHOUGH 2016 ISSLOWER, IT IS STILL ON PACE TO BE A HUGE YEAR

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MEDIAN EARLY-STAGE DEAL SIZE TICKED UPWARD TO 5-QUARTER HIGH

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GLOBAL MEDIAN LATE-STAGE DEAL SIZES CONTINUEDTO FALL

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THROUGH Q1’2016, THE PACE OF “PRIVATE IPOs” HASDECLINED…

June 2016

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BIRTHING UNICORNS HAS BECOME HARDER

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NEW UNICORNS RARE ACROSS ALL MAJOR REGIONSIN Q1’16

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NEW UNICORNS RARE ACROSS ALL MAJOR REGIONSIN Q1’16

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NUMBER OF COMPANIES EXITING FOR LESS THAN THEYRAISED HAS INCREASED

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~80% OF TECH EXITS ARE < $200 MILLION. IRRATIONALVALUATIONS OF LAST 2 YEARS MAKE EXITS CHALLENGING

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PERFORMANCE OF 17 TECH UNICORNS POST-IPO HASBEEN TERRIBLE

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…AND WHILE TECH MEGA-ROUNDS ARE MUCH LOWERTHAN 2015, STILL WAY ABOVE HISTORICAL LEVELS

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STILL 12 NEW UNICORNS BIRTHED SINCE BEGINNING OFTHE YEAR (MOST IN ASIA AND NOT ALL ARE VC-BACKED)

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AND THERE WILL ALWAYS BE GREAT COMPANIESCREATED

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LPs ARE STILL BULLISH ON VC AS AN ASSET CLASS

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STILL LOTS OF MONEY OUT THERE ESPECIALLY AS CORPORATE PARTICIPATION CONTINUES TO GAIN STEAM

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THE MOST ACTIVE CORPORATE VENTURE CAPITAL GROUPS

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THE MOST ACTIVE CORPORATE VENTURE CAPITAL GROUPS

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LOTS OF COMPANIES DISRUPTING MARKETS. EXAMPLE OF P&G.

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LOTS OF COMPANIES DISRUPTING MARKETS. EXAMPLE OF P&G.

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AND HERE’S STARWOOD SUFFERING A DEATH BY ATHOUSAND CUTS

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IOT IS ATTACKING LOTS OF SPACES - HEALTHCARE

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INDUSTRIAL IoT

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DAILY DEALS ALSO HAS LOST ITS LUSTER AS WE KNOW

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BIG DATA CONTINUES TO BE POPULAR

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DEAL ACTIVITY TO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCECONTINUES TO CLIMB

Funding and deal activity has jumped. This is a very hot area. It’s the new Big Data.

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE M&A ALREADY STEPPING UP

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THE BOT BUBBLE?

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REMEMBER WHEN ON-DEMAND WAS ‘THE’ THING?

This was small handful of companies (Uber, Airbnb) which drove up funding totals and a lot of investors jumped in driven by FOMO.

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A TREND THAT REALLY WASN’T

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MEDIA CHATTER ABOUT SPACE CONTINUES…

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…BUT HAS LOST STEAM RELATIVE TO NEWER HOT AREASSUCH AS AUTONOMOUS CARS

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AUTO TECH HEATS UP. CRUISE $1B ACQUISITION ISSPURRING MORE ACTIVITY.

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AUTO TECH HEATS UP. CRUISE $1B ACQUISITION IS SPURRING MORE ACTIVITY FROM VCs AND CORPORATES

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AUTO TECH HEATS UP. CRUISE $1B ACQUISITION IS SPURRING MORE ACTIVITY FROM VCs AND CORPORATES

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DIGITAL HEALTH IS HOT(ALTHOUGH EXIT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS LUKEWARM)

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MOMENTUM AROUND WEARABLES HAS FLATTENED

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CYBERSECURITY ALSO HOT (BUT OVERFUNDED)

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REAL ESTATE TECH GAINING STEAM

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“ASSET INTENSIVE”

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THE INTERNET OF THINGS REMAINS HOT

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HOW OLD FASHIONED?UNIT ECONOMICS ARE COOL AGAIN

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COLLAPSE DIDN’T HAPPEN IN Q1…

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BUT Q3 AND Q4 2016 IS D-DAY – THIS IS WHEN THE MOSTUNICORNS WILL NEED TO RAISE FUNDING

June 2016

Russian Venture Capital market overview 2015

June 2016

Russia’s VC* Market Snapshot 2015

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Investment value, $M

Average deal value, $M

Investor structureNumber of deals

Seed

Start-up

Growth

Expansion

Total

Exits

Maturity

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128 $32.4 M $0.3 M

101 $79.0 M $0.8 M

24 $67.0 M $2.9 M

22 $182.5 M $8.7 M

3 $4.0 M $2.0 M

$364.9 M $2.9 M278

4 $10.9 MSeed AB C+Exit

* - includes only VC Russian deals below $10Min of value

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Knocked-down VC market

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VC market resembles the Russian economy’s negative dynamics triggered by commodity prices drop, sanctions and media-wars.

As a results, VC funds moved to Asia, US and Europe.

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Startup Failure Post-Mortems

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907 652

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2012 2013 2014 2015

Investment Value Number of Deals

VC Market dynamics, 2012-2015$ M #

140

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138 155

32 40

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20142015 20142015 20142015 20142015 20142015

$ M

Funds activity by stage, 2015

Seed Start-up Growth Expansion Maturity

Investment value decreased by 58%

Number of deals dropped by 40%

Activity of Funds shrinkedacross all stages except the expansion stage

Structural crisis between Russia’s institutional investors and private business

Growth !

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Market structure: investors & segments

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- 50,00 100,00 150,00 200,00 250,00 300,00

PPP

Funds

State

Strategic

Business-angels BiotechIndust. techOther techComp. equipSoft & Internet B2BOther ITSoft & Internet B2C

Private funds dominated the market in 2015

Soft & Internet lead the market

Software & Internet B2B Software & Internet B2C

2014 2015

$122.5 M

$329.5M

Leaders by the fall

E-commerce Education Content providers

2014 2015

$148.4 M $ 131.9 M

-11% -63%

Leaders by the fall

PlatformEnterprise

management systemsMarketing / ads

$ M

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To Break the Wall

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POSITIVE trends

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Activity in non-IT market is increasing

New local Funds and Angels appear in the market

Many Family Offices direct eyes on VC investments

Russian Government continues to support innovation sectors and links universities and corporations

VC-infrastructure has significantly improved in big cities

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Angel investors and Corporations gain traction

3 8

99

10 137

174 9

2,68,5

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2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015

Corporations Angel investors

Seed Start-up Growth Expansion Maturity

ANGELS!

CORPORATIONS!ANGELS!

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From 2015 to 2016: hopes for finding the oasis soon

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TRENDS & EXPECTATIONS

Foundation of new corporate VC funds

Exits & big rounds: New Russian unicorns has appeared

Angel investors’ number is expected to grow (from 250 to 10 000 in an early future)

Focus shifts towards Hardware due to strong government support

Export oriented development strategy

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Investors’ choice

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START-UPS

Later stage with visible exit path

Cash positive or close mid stage with ability to pay dividends

Early stage with disruptive technology & great entrepreneur

Hot techs & verticals:

- Fintech, AdTech, E-commerce, Security

- Big data, AI and B2B tools, P2P/ aggregators

Copyright ©2016 RMG partners refers to all related entities. All rights reserved. This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may becirculated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution outside of the client organisation without prior written approval by RMG partners.

Arseniy Dabbakh

Managing Partner

T: +7 (495) 668 1300

E: ad@rmg-partners.ru