Transcript of VARIATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH IN DIFFERENT REGIONS.
- Slide 1
- VARIATIONS OF POPULATION GROWTH IN DIFFERENT REGIONS
- Slide 2
- DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION MODEL DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION: PROCESS OF
CHANGE IN A SOCIETYS POPULATION FROM A CONDITION OF HIGH CRUDE
BIRTH & DEATH RATES & LOW RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE TO A
CONDITION OF LOW CRUDE BIRTH & DEATH RATES, LOW RATE OF NATURAL
INCREASE, & HIGHER TOTAL POPULATION ECUMENE PORTION OF THE
EARTHS SURFACE PERMANENTLY OCCUPIED BY HUMAN SETTLEMENT
- Slide 3
- STAGE 1: LOW GROWTH- VERY HIGH BIRTH & DEATH RATES PRODUCE
VIRTUALLY NO LONG-TERM NATURAL INCREASE STAGE 2: HIGH
GROWTH-RAPIDLY DECLINING DEATH RATES & VERY HIGH BIRTH RATES
PRODUCE VERY HIGH NATURAL INCREASE CAPE VERDE ENTERED STAGE 2 ABOUT
1950 WHY?
- Slide 4
- STAGE 3: DECREASING GROWTH-BIRTH RATES RAPIDLY DECLINE, DEATH
RATES CONTINUE TO DECLINE & NIR BEGIN TO MODERATE STAGE 4: LOW
GROWTH-VERY LOW BIRTH & DEATH RATES PRODUCE VIRTUALLY NO
LONG-TERM NATURAL INCREASE & POSSIBLY A DECLINE
- Slide 5
- DECLINING BIRTH RATES 2 STRATEGIES UTILIZED: 1) EDUCATION &
HEALTH CARE 2) CONTRACEPTION
- Slide 6
- T. MALTHUS 1766-1834 AN ESSAY ON THE PRINCIPLE OF POPULATION
POPULATION GROWS GEOMETRICALLY BUT FOOD ARITHMETICALLY SO WERE
DOOMED NEO-MALTHUSIANS DUE TO NIR 20 TH C. DIDNT ANTICIPATE MORE
ENTERING STAGE 2 & MORE RESOURCES THAN FOOD BECOMING
DEPLETED
- Slide 7
- MALTHUS THEORY, CRITICS & REALITY RESOURCE DEPLETION: YES
BUT WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION HAS OUTPACED NIR SINCE 1950 INDIAS WHEAT
PRODUCTION WAY UP, RICE NOT SO MUCH TECHNOLOGY, AVAILABLE LAND,
HIGHER YLD SEEDS ETC. PROBLEM IS DISTRIBUTION NOT PRODUCTION
POPULATION GROWING BUT A POSITIVE BECASUE.. MORE PEOPLE STIMULATE
ECONOMY, FOOD PRODUCTION, MORE CONSUMERS GENERATE GREATER DEMAND
FOR GOODS LEADING TO MORE JOBS MARXISTS: WORLD HAS ENOUGH RESOURCES
BUT NEED TO DISTRIBUTE THEM EQUALLY
- Slide 8
- POSSIBLE STAGE 5? JAPAN GRAYING NATION: POPULATION OF 65+
GREATER THAN 14 & UNDER 127 MILL TO 95 MILL 2050 & WITH
DECLINE DRAMATIC SHIFT LABOR? JAPANS ETHNOCENTRIC CULTURE
DISCOURAGES IMMIGRATION HEALTH CARE COSTS WILL SKYROCKET, SCHOOLS
WILL CLOSE, UNEMPLOY. SOLUTION: ENCOURAGE JAPANESE TO WORK LONGER,
MORE WOMEN IN WORKFORCE, AT HOME HEALTH CARE BUT WOMEN WORKING
AFFECTS BIRTHS JAPAN NEEDS A CULTURE SHIFT AWAY FROM GET MARRIED,
HAVE KIDS & STAY AT HOME OR GO TO SCHOOL, GET A CAREER &
STAY SINGLE
- Slide 9
- POPULATION FUTURES CHINA & INDIA FULL CYCLE STAGES 1-4:
LITTLE TO NO NIR TO LITTLE OR NO NIR DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES
UNDERLIE PROCESS: TOTAL POP MUCH GREATER IN 4 CBR & CDR HIGH IN
1 & LOW IN 4 CHINA & INDIA MOST POPULOUS: MORE THAN 1/3 OF
WORLD POPULATION LIVE IN CH. & IN. INDIAN INDEPENDENCE 1947
& GROWTH COMMENCED & 1 ST TO ATTEMPT NATIONAL FAMILY
PLANNING PROGRAM: STERILIZATION NOW FAMILY WELFARE CHINAS 1 CHILD
POLICY 1980: PERMIT TO HAVE CHILDREN, $ PYMTS, BETTER HOUSING, MORE
LAND IF RURAL BUT LESSENED SOME DUE TO ECONOMIC GROWTH: COUNSELING
ON BC OPTIONS, FAMILY PLANNING FEE IF YOU WANT A 2 ND CHILD TO
COVER ADMIN COSTS AS OF YET, LARGE INCREASE IN BIRTH RATE HASNT
HAPPENED