Post on 03-Jan-2016
description
Valley Import Overview
Jeff BilloRegional Planning Group Meeting
July 22, 2014
Preliminary 1
• Valley Overview
• Future Transmission System Needs
• Discussion and Next Steps
Outline
Preliminary 2
Valley Overview - 2014
Preliminary 3
11
22 33
44
55
66
77
# Plant Capacity (MW)1Frontera 5242North Edin 6783Duke 4634Silas Ray 1045Los Vientos 4006Redfish 2007Railroad DC Tie 300
17691769 600600 300300
Gas Wind DC-Tie
Valley InterfaceValley Interface
Valley Transmission - 2016
Preliminary 4
11
22 33
44
55
66
77
17691769 600600 300300
Gas Wind DC-Tie
# Plant Capacity (MW)1Frontera 5242North Edin 6783Duke 4634Silas Ray 1045Los Vientos 4006Redfish 2007Railroad DC Tie 300
• ERCOT Board endorsed Valley Import Project in September 2011– ERCOT Independent Review indicated that additional reliability
upgrades would be needed by 2020 to support import needs
• FERC Final Rule on TPL-001-4 effective December 23, 2013– Adds G-1+G-1 criterion to NERC planning standards (Category
P3 contingency)• No loss of load allowed• Corrective Action Plan for “raise the bar” requirements do not
have to be in place until 2020
• ERCOT annual stability analysis identified reliability criteria violations in the Valley
Background Information
Preliminary 5
Valley Load Forecast (2014 RTP)
Preliminary 6
• Study Case– 2016 Summer Peak (SSWG, March 2014)
• Base Case Condition– All Valley Gas Generation at Pmax– Lobo – North Edinburg 345 kV in service (with series capacitor)– North Edinburg – Loma Alta (Cross Valley) 345 kV in service– Valley Wind Output = 10% dispatch– Railroad DC-Tie no import/export
• Steady State PV Analysis
Valley Import Study
Preliminary 7
VSAT Results
Preliminary 8
Base Case Notes:(1)G-1includes entire combined cycle train (2)N-1 includes 345 kV transmission line(3)Dynamic analysis results (ongoing work) may show stability limits lower than in the above table
Outage ContingencyValley Load (MW) at Stability Limit Year Exceeded
N-1 N-1 2867 2016G-1 G-1 2947 2017N-1 G-1 3061 2019
• N-1+N-1 and G-1+G-1 are the significant contingencies for the Valley– Entire combined-cycle train is treated as G-1 in this assessment
(consistent with Planning Guide 4.1.1.1)
• ERCOT is working on dynamic stability analysis• ERCOT will work with area TSPs and RPG to evaluate
project alternatives to address the reliability need– Static and/or dynamic reactive devices– Ajo – Caballo 345 kV line (suggested in 2011 ERCOT
Independent Review)– San Miguel – Lobo – North Edinburg second circuit– Additional import path
• Railroad DC tie assumption
Discussion
Preliminary 9
Valley Potential Gen (by County), COD by 2016
Preliminary 10
11
22 33
44
55
66
77
17691769 600600 300300
200200
500500
268268
16011601
200200
399399
230230
200200 11981198 20002000
Gas Wind DC-Tie PG 6.9 Wind FIS Wind FIS Gas
# Plant Capacity (MW)1Frontera 5242North Edin 6783Duke 4634Silas Ray 1045Los Vientos 4006Redfish 2007Railroad DC Tie 300
Preliminary 11
Questions/ Comments?