Post on 16-Oct-2019
USDA iiiiillllllllll United States Department of Agriculture
Economic Research Service www. ers. usda .gov
U.S. Produce Imports from Mexico
Linda Calvin and Steven Zahniser U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
Presentation to the seminar entitled “Farm Workers in Mexico and the United States” Mexico Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center
Washington, DC, November 15, 2017
Views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Economic Research Service, USDA, or other entities participating in this research.
USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda .gov
U.S.-Mexico fruitand vegetable trade at a glance
• In 2016, U.S. fruit and vegetable imports from Mexico reached about 10 million metric tons—with atotal value of about $12.4 billion.
• This trade accounted for about: – 43 percent of total U.S. fruit and vegetable imports (from all countries) – 54 percent of U.S. agricultural imports from Mexico – 4 percent of U.S. merchandise imports from Mexico
• In this presentation, we will focus on different types of fresh or frozen fruit and vegetables, whichaccounted for about 92 percent of U.S. fruit and vegetable imports from Mexico in 2016.
• The United States also participates in U.S.-Mexico agricultural trade as an exporter: – U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico equaled about $17.8 billion in 2016. – Grains, oilseeds, meat, and related products accounted for about three-fourths of this trade. – Fruit and vegetables accounted for about 7 percent.
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Census Bureau, as cited by USDA, Foreign Agricultural Service. Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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U.S. produce imports: Mexico is the largest foreign supplier of vegetables and fruit (when bananas are excluded)
10,000
1990 2016 1990 2016 1990 2016
Fruit Vegetables Bananas (fresh, frozen, and dried (fresh and frozen)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1,00
0 short ton
s
ROW
Canada
Mexico
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but excluding bananas) Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce.
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda .gov
Availability of farm labor in Mexico is one of many factors driving U.S. produce imports
• Demand – Consumer demand for year-round supplies of fresh produce – A desire for a healthier diet – Partial shift in consumption from canned and frozen product to fresh produce – Increased per capita consumption of certain fruit and vegetables – New interest in tropical fruit (avocados, papayas, mangos)
• Supply – Favorable climates in other countries for growing fruit and vegetables, often complementing U.S. growing seasons – Greater availability of farm labor in Mexico and other countries – Trade liberalization (NAFTA, CAFTA-DR, Peru, Colombia) – Regulatory coordination and trade facilitation (changes in phytosanitary rules for avocados form one example) – New technologies (protected cultures, including greenhouses and shade houses, and new varieties, among other factors) – New commodities grown in Mexico (berries) – Food safety challenges (raspberries, cantaloupe) – New transportation infrastructure reduces transport costs from some areas: Increased use of Laredo and Weslaco Ports of Entry – Increased participation of U.S. producers, buyers, and investors in produce sectors of Mexico and other countries as a way to reduce
weather risks, to obtain product to “fill out” the calendar year, and to lower labor costs
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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Tomatoes: The leading U.S. vegetable import from Mexico in 2016 (volume)
Tomatoes 29%
Cucumbers 12%
Chilipeppers 10%
Squash 7%
Bell peppers 7%
Onionsand shallots 6%
All others 29%
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Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce. Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
Avocados: The leading U.S. fruit import from Mexico in 2016 (volume)
Avocados 22%All others
27%
Strawberries,
Limes(fresh or dried)
Watermelons fresh 18% 5% Papayas
5% Mangoes 15%
8% Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce.
USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda .gov
Tomatoes
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda .gov
Protected culture technology has transformed Mexican shipments to the United States
• Protected culture (PC) is a broad term than covers high-tech greenhouses to low-tech shade houses.
• Began in the mid-1990s in Canada • Applied commercially first in Canada, then in the United States, and finally in Mexico which is now the powerhouse in the industry
• Primary commodities are tomatoes, bell peppers, and cucumbers • Canadian and U.S. greenhouses are very high-tech and expensive • Mexican operations are a mix of high-tech greenhouses and lower-techshade houses
• Analytical challenge: low-quality data on U.S. greenhouse production Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
U.S. tomato market: Import share has risen from 17 to 54 percent
Field production
Imports (field
and PC)
Exports (field
and PC)
Per capita consumption
Import share of
consumption
Million lbs Lbs. Percent
1990-92 3,561 675 320 15 17
2014-16 3,286 3,605 217 21 54
Percent change -8 434 -32 35 212
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce.
California and Florida fresh-market tomato production: Florida’s production has declined since the early 1990s
25,0001,000 cwt.
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
California Florida
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and USDA, NASS.
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
U.S. field tomato production (round and roma) and field and PC imports, 1990-2016: Imports from Mexico now exceed U.S. production
Million lbs. 5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
U.S. field tomato production (round and roma) Canada Mexico
11
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and USDA, NASS. Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
PC and field roma tomatoes now account for the majority of U.S. tomato imports from Mexico
Tons 1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Cherry Roma Grape All PC tomatoes All others (round)
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Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce.Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda .gov
Cucumbers
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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U.S. cucumber production decreased by 22 percent since 1990-92
Field Imports Exports Per capita Import share production (field and (field and consumption of
PC) PC) consumption
Million lbs. Lbs. Percent
1990-92average 876 403 82 5 34
2014-16average 687 1,801 31 8 73
Percent change -22 347 -63 62 118
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce.
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
U.S. imports of field-produced cucumbers from Mexico exceed imports of PC-cucumbers
Million lbs. 1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
US field Mexican field CanadianPC(greenhouse) Mexican PC
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda .gov
Bell peppers
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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U.S. bell pepper market: Imports soar 514 percent
Field Imports Exports Per capita Import share production (field and PC) (field and PC) consumption of
consumption
Million lbs Lbs Percent
1990-92average 1/ 630 211 169 2.8 26
2014-16average 865 1,294 109 7.2 64
Percent change 37 514 -36 161 146
1/ Fresh production, per capita consumption, and import share of consumption based on 1990-91 average.
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA AMS, and USDA, NASS.
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
U.S. bell pepper field production: After initial increases, Florida and California’s fresh-market production has declined 1/
1,000 cwt. 7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Florida fresh California fresh
1/ There are data problems for California bell peppers in the mid 1990s and those numbers are not shown.
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA/AMS, and USDA/NASS.
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
U.S. bell pepper imports from Mexico: About evenly balanced between field and PC product
1,200
1,400M lbs.
1,000
800
600
400
200
0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Mexico field
Mexico PC
CanadaPC(greenhouse)
US-all fresh field
Total Canadian and Mexican imports
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA/AMS, and U.S. Department of Commerce.
USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda .gov
Berries
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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U.S. berry supply: Strawberries still the leading berry consumed in the United States
Million lbs.
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0 1990-92 2014-16 1990-92 2014-16 1990-92 2014-16 1990-92 2014-16
Strawberries Raspberries Blueberries Blackberries
Production Imports
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce.
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
U.S. berry market overview: Mexico supplies almost all imports, except blueberries
StrawB RaspB BlueB BlackB 1/
Percent change (1990-92 to 2014-16)
Imports
U.S. production 161 516 544 74
Per-capita consumption 128 1,164 931 NA
1,084 4,792 1,334 2,687
Percent (2014-16)
Import share of consumption 14 55 53 NA
MX share of imports 100 98 9 95 1/ Growth in blackberry production is based on data from 2008 and 2016 only.
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Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS, USDA/AMS, and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
U.S. strawberry shipments: Imports of Mexican strawberries for the winter season increased between 1990 and 2016
100,000 lbs. 3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2016 1990
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov California Florida Mexico Other imports
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS.
Growth in U.S. strawberry supplies: Florida production is leveling off
Million lbs. 3,500 4003,500
3,000 3,000 350
300 2,500 2,500
250
2,000 2,000 200
1,500 1,500 150
1,000 1,000 100
500 500 50
0 00 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
California Florida Mexico California Florida Mexico
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
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Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS. Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
Mexican raspberries expand the U.S. consumption calendar
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
100,000
lbs
20161990 400
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
California Canada Chile Mexico
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS.
Raspberry imports from Mexico approach U.S. production level
200Million lbs. 180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
US production Canada Mexico Guatemala Chile
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce.
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
U.S. per capita blueberry consumption increased 931percent between 1990-92and 2014-16
100,000 lbs 1,200
1990 2016 1,000
800
600
400
200
0 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
US Mexico Other importers
27
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS.
Mexico’s share of U.S. blueberry imports increased to 9 percent
1,000tons 90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Canada Mexico Peru Chile Argentina
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from U.S. Department of Commerce.
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
Mexico is the leading source—foreign or domestic—of blackberries in the United States
100,000lbs. 2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
US Mexico Guatemala
Jan Mar May July Sep Nov Jan Mar May July Sep Nov
2008 2016
29
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS.
USDA Economic Research Service ~ iiiiiiillllllll www.ers.usda .gov
Avocados
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
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Avocados: Mexican production supplied 91percent ofU.S. consumption in 2016
Million lbs. 2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
United States Mexico Bahamas DominicanRepublic Peru Chile New Zealand
Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from ERS and U.S. Department of Commerce.
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Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
U.S. avocado production is higher during the summer, when imports from Mexico are lower
100,000 lbs. 3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
California Florida Bahamas Chile DominicanRepublic Mexico Peru
1990 2016
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
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Source: Prepared by USDA, Economic Research Service, using data from USDA/AMS.
Linda Calvin & Steven Zahniser
Questions and discussion
Thank you! Linda Calvin, lcalvin@ers.usda.gov
Steven Zahniser, zahniser@ers.usda.gov
ERS website: www.ers.usda.gov
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