US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUPUS CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP

Terms of Reference• Develop a set of metrics to be used for assessing MJO simulation

fidelity and forecast skill. • Develop and coordinate model simulation and prediction experiments, in

conjunction with model-data comparisons, which are designed to better understand the MJO and improve our model representations and forecasts of the MJO.

• Raise awareness of the potential utility of subseasonal and MJO forecasts in the context of the seamless suite of predictions.

• Help to coordinate MJO-related activities between national and international agencies and associated programmatic activities.

• Provide guidance to US CLIVAR and Interagency Group (IAG) on where additional modeling, analysis or observational resources are needed.

Duane Waliser, co-chair Wanqui Wang Ken Sperber, co-chair Chidong ZhangSiegfried Schubert 2-Yr Lifetime Mitch MoncrieffKlaus Weickmann April 2006-> Eric MaloneyBin Wang Leo Donner

Additional/International: F. Vitart, S. Woolnough*, H. Hendon*, W. Higgins, J. Gottschalck, W. Stern * International CLIVAR Support

Near-Term Goals (~ 1+ YEAR)Near-Term Goals (~ 1+ YEAR)

1)1) Develop (w/ C. Stephens) MJO WG Web Site.Develop (w/ C. Stephens) MJO WG Web Site.

2)2) Metrics for Assessing/Diagnosing Model Metrics for Assessing/Diagnosing Model Simulations of the MJO.Simulations of the MJO.

3)3) Prediction Targets and Metrics for MJO Prediction Targets and Metrics for MJO Forecasts.Forecasts.

4)4) Using the Above, Develop an Experimental/ Using the Above, Develop an Experimental/ Diagnostics Theme for Modeling/Predicting Diagnostics Theme for Modeling/Predicting the MJO in Conjunction With a Workshop.the MJO in Conjunction With a Workshop.

US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUPUS CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP

Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08

Web Site

Model Exp

Workshop

Forecast Metrics

Simulation Metrics

Telecons

Meetings

Time Line of ActivitiesTime Line of Activities

WCRP/ThorpexTrieste

Convection

AGU Session Subseasonal Working Group

** Meeting **

NCAR/TIIMESRetreat

Convection

Monsoon Related AAMP/ Plans 2007

WGNE Systematic Errors

US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUPUS CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP

Web Site ResourcesWeb Site Resources

Web Site ResourcesWeb Site Resources

MJO Weather-Climate Theme PagesMJO Weather-Climate Theme Pages

Web Site ResourcesWeb Site Resources

Expected AdditionsExtreme Precip Events Asian Monsoon N. American MonsoonAustralian MonsoonMid-Lat Weather Forecast Skill Angular Momentum (LOD)Africa Impacts

Web Site ResourcesWeb Site Resources

• Observations: Satellite and/or Global Reanalysis Fields Satellite: OLR, CMAP, TRMM, Surface Flux Products NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, JRA-25 Basic Quantities: OLR, Precip, U850, U200 Higher Level: 3D structures, Surface Fluxes,

Diabatic Terms• Simple / Novice Measures -> Complex / Expert Measures

Simple : Variance Maps, Spectra, EOFs of Basic Quantities

Higher Level : Wave-Freq, Combined EOF, Life-Cycle Composites

Fluxes, Diabatic Terms, Vertical Structure Mean States and Interannual Variability

• Dissemination• Post calculated metrics from observations on web

site, including likely the data in its final/metric form and maybe example code where possible.

• Apply to a couple models and include results on web site.

• Journal Article?• Apply to models for presentation/discussion at

proposed workshop.

MJO Simulation MetricsMJO Simulation Metrics

Diagnostic Measures / Metrics Based on Observations for Assessing -

and Possibly Diagnosing - Model Simulation Fidelity of the MJO

Expect? Expect? to be to be here by here by DecDec

• Similar Considerations as with Simulations Metrics• Connect to the Simulation Metrics As Much as Possible• Real-time Constraints Introduce Challenges in

Identifying the MJO• Less Groundwork to Rely On - Will Need to Entrain

Operational Weather and Seasonal Forecast Expertise.• Dissemination - Similar to Simulation Metrics

MJO Forecast MetricsMJO Forecast Metrics

Metrics to Assess in Common Terms MJO Forecast Skill/Predictability and Prediction Targets

Focused on Users and Applications

Expect? to Expect? to be here by be here by Next SummerNext Summer

• New Thinking: Multi-scale structure, Emphasis on Vertical Structure Multi-scale structure, Emphasis on Vertical Structure Analysis, Utility of Forecast Framework, A Bridge Between Analysis, Utility of Forecast Framework, A Bridge Between Weather-ClimateWeather-Climate

• New Tools & Resources: New Era of Satellite Observations, GOOS/IO Array, Multi-New Era of Satellite Observations, GOOS/IO Array, Multi-Scale Modeling.Scale Modeling.

• Principle Focus Areas:----> Metrics Application & Vertical Structure ->----> Metrics Application & Vertical Structure ->-> Experimental Framework for Multi-Scale Models --->-> Experimental Framework for Multi-Scale Models --->-> Experimental Framework for Forecast Experiments --->-> Experimental Framework for Forecast Experiments --->

Proposed Workshop ThemeProposed Workshop ThemeNew Thinking, Tools & Resources for

Assessing & Improving the MJO

Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08

Web Site

Model Exp

Workshop

Forecast Metrics

Simulation Metrics

Telecons

Meetings

Time Line of ActivitiesTime Line of Activities

WCRP/ThorpexTrieste

Convection

AGU Session Subseasonal Working Group

** Meeting **

NCAR/TIIMESRetreat

Convection

Monsoon Related AAMP/ Plans 2007

WGNE Systematic Errors

US CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUPUS CLIVAR: MJO WORKING GROUP