Unlocking agriculture’s past to feed the future worldJacob van Etten

Feeding the future world1

IPCC, 2007

-95 to -31-30 to -11-10 to -101 to 2930 to 4748 to 98

Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS

% change

Change in suitability due to climate change50 crops, to 2050

D. Lobell et al. 2011

The past is the key to the future2

China, 6000 years before present

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Genetic change early farmers select

The science of agricultural origins3

Nikolai I. Vavilov (1887-1943)Centres of origin

Flotation

Rice spikelet basesWhich is the domesticated one?

14C radiocarbon datingaccelerator mass spectrometry (AMS)

Phytolithsscanning electron microscope (SEM)

Experimental archaeology

BonesWas agriculture such a good idea after all?

DNA analysis“Old” DNA recovery

Current patternsof genetic diversity

Heritage of the past: agricultural diversity4

Transfer of genes from CWR to crops

“Scuba rice”Flood-tolerance gene from landrace

Photo: J. Cherfas, Bioversity International

Photo: J. Cherfas, Bioversity International

Geography: the power of

maps and models5

Seed samplesavailable from the multilateral system

Gaps in the collectionsexample for sorghum

Archaeological dataMaize origin in Mexico

Overlapping part of the dispersal route

Origin of dispersal

Divergent part of the dispersal route

predicted genetic distance

mea

sure

d ge

netic

dist

ance

R2 = 0.44

+Interactive online mapping

www.ie.edu/mgec