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UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA
ALI REZA AFSHARI
FK 2012 30
DEVELOPMENT OF A FUZZY INTEGRAL GROUP MODEL BASED ON LINGUISTIC REASONING FOR PROJECT MANAGER SELECTION
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DEVELOPMENT OF A FUZZY INTEGRAL GROUP MODEL BASED ON
LINGUISTIC REASONING FOR PROJECT MANAGER SELECTION
By
ALI REZA AFSHARI
Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies, Universiti Putra Malaysia,
in Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
September 2012
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Abstract of thesis to be presented to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia in fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy
ABSTRACT
DEVELOPMENT OF A FUZZY INTEGRAL GROUP MODEL BASED ON
LINGUISTIC REASONING FOR PROJECT MANAGER SELECTION
By
ALI REZA AFSHARI
June 2012
Chairman: Professor Rosnah bt. Mohd. Yusuff, PhD
Faculty: Engineering
An important phase of human resource management is project manager selection,
which is concerned with identifying an individual from a pool of candidates suitable
for a vacant position. As in many decision problems, project manager selection
problem is very complex in real life. Some of the techniques in decision making are
multi criteria decision making (MCDM) can be used for project manager selection
process. Although many studies have investigated this problem, there are three
missing links in existing studies: Firstly, based on literature review, there is no
systematic and valid method for specifying the jobs requirements criteria have been
presented. Secondly, group decision making (GDM) is a very important factor for
solving the problem comprehensively. However, it has not been considered in the
majority of the reviewed studies. Thirdly, possible dependencies between the
criteria in the project manager selection model have not been considered in the
existing studies.
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The main objective of this research is to develop an analytical hybrid methodology
for project manager selection problem in order to identify criteria for project
manager selection by an extension of Delphi method, to evaluate a candidate by a
new group multi criteria decision making (GMCDM) model based on fuzzy set
theory, and develop a model based on linguistic extension of fuzzy measures and
fuzzy integrals for ranking candidates. The methodology of this research includes
four stages. The objective of the first stage is to eliciting criteria hierarchy for project
manager selection. In this stage, after reviewing pertinent literature, the Delphi based
method was used to seek the criteria from managers and experts. The objective of the
second stage is project manager evaluation based on new group fuzzy linguistic
modeling for determining criteria importance and candidate ratings. The objective of
the third stage is fuzzy aggregating and the objective of fourth stage is ranking the
candidates based on new linguistic fuzzy measure and fuzzy integral model.
The models were validated using three case studies of project manager selection in
three project based companies for a project manager position. The effectiveness of
the three new methods was demonstrated in these three case studies. The results
showed that the proposed models are appropriate for selecting project manager
considering dependency between criteria. Firstly, this study developed a structured
method for criteria selection. The use of a structured criteria selection method
encourages experts to focus on explicit and functional criteria, rather than to use
inappropriate criteria. As a contribution to the knowledge, this study extended the
classical Delphi technique through using the results of relevant literature review and
discussion with experts to identify the selection criteria. Secondly, this study
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developed a linguistic extension for evaluation. Decision makers cannot express
judgment in accurate numerical terms and use of linguistic labels makes decision
judgment more reliable and informative for decision making. Thirdly, this study
developed non additive method for aggregating stage in project manager selection. In
the real world, in dealing with the multiple criteria decision making problems, the
criteria are not independent. So they cannot be evaluated by conventional additive
measures and there must be better methods to distinguish the preferences by applying
a new nonlinear and non additive model, in which it is not necessary to assume
independence.
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Abstrk tesis dikemukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia sebagai memenuhi keperluan untuk ijazah Doktor Falsafah
PEMBANGUNAN MODEL KUMPULAN KAMIRAN SAMAR
BERDASARKAN PERTIMBANGAN LINGUISTIK UNTUK PEMILIHAN
PENGURUS PROJEK
Oleh
ALI REZA AFSHARI
Jun 2012
Pengerusi: Rosnah bt. Mohd. Yusuff, PhD
Fakulti: Kejuruteraan
fasa penting dalam pengurusan sumber manusia adalah pemilihan pengurus projek,
yang melibatakan mengenal pasti individu daripada kumpulan calon yang sesual
untuk pengisian jawatan kosong. Seperti dalam banyak masalah keputusan,
pemilihan pengurus projek adalah masalah yang sangat kompleks dalam kehidupan
sebenar. Beberapa teknik dalam membuat keputusan adalah keputusan pelbagai
kriteria membuat boleh digunakan untuk proses pemilihan pengurus
projek.Walaupun banyak kajian telah dijalankan untuk masalah ini, terdapat tiga
hubungan yang hilang dalam kajian yang sedia ada: Pertama, tidak ada kaedah yang
sistematik dan sah untuk menentukan kriteria keperluan pekerjaan yang telah
dibentangkan. Kedua, kumpulan membuat keputusan merupakan faktor yang sangat
penting untuk menyelesaikan masalah secara menyeluruh. Walau bagaimanapun, ia
tidak dipertimbangkan dalam majoriti kajian semula. Ketiga, mungkin
kebergantungan antara kriteria dalam pemilihan model pengurus projek tidak
dipertimbangkan dalam kajian yang sedia ada.
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Objektif utama kajian ini adalah untuk membangunkan satu kaedah analitikal hibrid
untuk masalah pemilihan pengurus projek bagi mengenal pasti kriteria pemilihan
pengurus projek melalui lanjutan kaedah Delphi, untuk menilai calon dari kumpulan
baru kriteria membuat keputusan berbilang model berdasarkan kabur set teori, dan
membangunkan model berdasarkan lanjutan linguistik langkah kabur dan kabur
kamiran untuk kedudukan calon. terdapat empat peringkat untuk metodologi dalam
kajianini. Objektif peringkat pertama adalah untuk memperlihatkan hierarki kriteria
pemilihan pengurus projek. Pada peringkat ini, selepas mengkaji kesusasteraan
penting, kaedah Delphi telah digunakan untuk mendapatkan kriteria daripada
pengurus dan pakar. Objektif peringkat kedua adalah penilaian pengurus projek
berdasarkan kumpulan baru kabur bahasa pemodelan untuk menentukan kepentingan
kriteria dan penilaian calon. Objektif peringkat ketiga adalah kabur mengagregat dan
objektif peringkat keempat ialah kedudukan calon-calon berdasarkan kepada langkah
baru linguistik kabur dan model penting kabur.
Model ini disahkan menggunakan kajian kes pemilihan pengurus projek dalam
syarikat berasaskan projek untuk jawatan pengurus projek. Keberkesanan tiga kaedah
baru telah ditunjukkan dalam kajian kes. Hash l kajian menunjukkan bahawa model
yang dicadangkan. adalah sesuai bagi memilih anggota berdasarkan pergantungan
antara kriteria. Pertama, penggunaan model kriteria pemilihan sistematik
menggalakkan pakar-pakar untuk memberi tumpuan kepada kriteria yang jelas dan
berfungsi, dan bukannya sebaliknya. Sebagai sumbangan kepada pengetahuan, kajian
ini meneruskan teknik Delphi klasik melalui penggunan hasil kajian literatur yang
berkaitan dan perbincangan dengan pakar-pakar untuk mengenal pasti kriteria
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pemilihan. Kedua, pembuat keputusan tidak dapat meluahkan penghakiman dari segi
ketepatan berangka dan penggunaan label linguistik membuat keputusan
penghakiman lebih dipercayai dan bermaklumat untuk membuat keputusan. Ketiga,
dalam dunia sebenar, dalam berurusan dengan pelbagai kriteria keputusan membuat
masalah, kriteria tidak terbatas. Jadi nnereka tidak boleh dinilai dengan langkah-
langkah tambahan konvensional dan harus mempunyai kaedah harus mempunyai
untuk nnembezakan keutamaan dengan menggunakan bahan tambahan baru linear
dan bukan model, di mana ia tidak perlu semestinya dianggap kebebasan.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to express my deepest gratitude and respect to my research supervisor
and the chairman of my supervisory committee, Professor Dr. Rosnah Mohd Yusuff,
for all his guidance, help and encouragement throughout my research studies. I am
also thankful to the members of the supervisory committee Associate Professor Dr.
Tang Sai Hong and Professor Dr. Yusuff Ismail for their support in this research
work and entire preparation of this doctoral dissertation. Without their guide in these
five years, I could not accomplish the thesis.
I am also deeply grateful to my wife, Vahideh, my son, Morteza, and my family for
their tremendous support to my study and life.
Finally, for those people who are not listed above but have given me a hand or
advice, I would also like to say a word of thanks for their support.
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I certify that a Thesis Examination Committee has met on 11 June 2012 to conduct
the final examination of Ali Reza Afshari on his thesis entitled “Development of a
Fuzzy Integral group model based on Linguistic reasoning for project manager
selection” in accordance with the Universities and University Colleges 1971 and the
Constitution of the Universiti Putra Malaysia [P.U.(A) 106] 15 March 1998. The
Committee recommends that the student be awarded the Doctor of Philosophy.
Members of the Examination Committee are as follows: Datin Dr Napsiah Ismail, PhD
Professor Faculty of Engineering
University Putra Malaysia (Chairman)
Dr Norzima Zulkifli, PhD
Faculty of Engineering
University Putra Malaysia (Internal Examiner)
Dr Mohd Khairol Anuar Mohd Ariffin, PhD
Associate Professor Faculty of Engineering
University Putra Malaysia (Internal Examiner)
Dr Abid Haleem, PhD
Professor
Faculty of Engineering and Technology University Jamia Millia Islamia
India (External Examiner)
______________________________ SEOW HENG FONG, PhD Professor and Deputy Dean
School of Graduate Studies Universiti Putra Malaysia
Date:
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This thesis was submitted to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia and has been
accepted as fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy.
The members of the Supervisory Committee were as follows:
Rosnah bt. Mohd. Yusuff, PhD
Professor Faculty of Engineering University Putra Malaysia
(Chairman)
Tang Sai Hong, PhD
Associate Professor Faculty of Engineering
University Putra Malaysia (Member)
Md. Yusof Ismail, PhD
Professor
Faculty of Manufacturing Engineering University Malaysia Pahang (Member)
______________________________ BUJANG BIN KIM HUAT, PhD
Professor and Dean
School of Graduate Studies Universiti Putra Malaysia
Date:
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DECLARATION
I declare that the thesis is original work except for quotations and citations which
have been duly acknowledged. I also declare that it has not been previously, and is
not concurrently, submitted for any other degree at Universiti Putra Malaysia or at
any other institutions.
______________________________
ALI REZA AFSHARI
Date:
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
ABSTRACT II
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS VIII APROVAL ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. DECLARATION XI
LIST OF TABLES XV LIST OF FIGURES XVII
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS XVIII LIST OF APPENDICES XIX
CHAPTER
1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Background of the study 1
1.2 Problem statement 5 1.3 Research objectives 7
1.4 Scope of research 7 1.5 Research contribution 8 1.6 Organization of the thesis 9
1.7 Summary 11
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 12
2.1 Introduction 12 2.2 Decision making theory 12
2.2.1 Multiple criteria decision making problem 14 2.2.1.1 Characteristics of criteria 15 2.2.1.2 Components of the MCDM model 15
2.2.2 Two brand categories of MCDM problems 17 2.2.2.1 Multiple objective decision making
(MODM) 18 2.2.2.2 Multiple attribute decision making (MADM)
20
2.2.3 Group decision making 21 2.2.3.1 The Delphi technique 21
2.2.3.2 Nominal group technique 22 2.3 Fuzzy decision making 24
2.3.1 Fuzzy set theory 24
2.3.2 Membership function 27 2.3.3 Linguistic variables 28
2.3.4 Triangular fuzzy number 30 2.4 Dependency between criteria in MCDM 35
2.4.1 Analytical network process (ANP) 36
2.4.2 Fuzzy synthetic utilities for ranking 36 2.4.2.1 Fuzzy measure 36
2.4.2.2 Fuzzy integral 38 2.5 Recent review of project manager selection problem 40
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2.5.1 Project manager selection as a decision making process 42
2.5.2 Classic MCDM approaches 44
2.5.2.1 AHP 45 2.5.2.2 ANP 47
2.5.2.3 TOPSIS 48 2.5.2.4 Expert systems 50 2.5.2.5 Grey relational method 52
2.5.2.6 Ordered weighted averaging (OWA) 53 2.5.2.7 Integrated approaches 53
2.5.3 Fuzzy environment decision making 54 2.5.3.1 Fuzzy linguistic modeling 54 2.5.3.2 Fuzzy expert systems 57
2.5.3.3 Fuzzy TOPSIS 58 2.5.3.4 Fuzzy multiple objective programming 60
2.5.3.5 Fuzzy AHP 62 2.5.3.6 Fuzzy ANP 63 2.5.3.7 Fuzzy OWA 63
2.5.3.8 Other fuzzy integrated methods 64 2.5.4 Observations and recommendations 65
2.5.4.1 Application areas 65 2.5.4.2 Most common method applied 67 2.5.4.3 Personnel selection criteria 68
2.5.4.4 Limitations of approaches 69 2.6 Summary 70
3. METHODOLOGY 71 3.1 Introduction 71
3.2 Justification for the research methodology 74 3.3 Developing systematic model for elicit selection criteria 75 3.4 Developing new fuzzy linguistic evaluation model 80
3.5 Developing a novel fuzzy synthetic utilities for ranking 87 3.6 Verification 88
3.7 Summary 89
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 91
4.1 Introduction 91 4.2 The model development 92
4.2.1 Developing systematic model for elicit selection criteria 92
4.2.2 Developing linguistic extension of fuzzy integral 92
4.3 The validation by case study 94 4.4 Project manager selection in MAPNA 95
4.4.1 Results and discussion for the elicit selection criteria 95 4.4.1.1 Designate the group of experts 96 4.4.1.2 Results of investigate previous studies 96
4.4.1.3 Results of the generate ideas 102 4.4.1.4 Results of the feedback to experts 102
4.4.1.5 Results of the final criteria and developing hierarchy 103
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4.4.1.6 Discussion on the using systematic criteria selection method 106
4.4.2 Results and discussion for the linguistic evaluation 108
4.4.2.1 Formation of the decision making group 108 4.4.2.2 Results of the determining criteria
importance 109 4.4.2.3 Results of the evaluating candidates 110 4.4.2.4 Discussion on group linguistic evaluation 114
4.4.3 Result and discussion for the fuzzy aggregation 115 4.4.3.1 Transfer linguistic variables to triangular
fuzzy numbers 116 4.4.3.2 Results of combining the fuzzy evaluation
values of decision makers 120
4.4.4 Results and discussion of the fuzzy synthetic utilities 123
4.4.4.1 Results of fuzzy measure and fuzzy integral 123
4.4.4.2 Algorithm for identifying λ 124
4.4.4.3 Discussion on criteria dependency overcoming 129
4.5 Project manager selection in SSP 131 4.5.1 Using Delphi for the elicit selection criteria 132 4.5.2 Identification of evaluation criteria weights 134
4.5.3 Candidate rating by fuzzy group decision making 135 4.5.4 Project manager selection by fuzzy aggregation 136
4.6 Project manager selection in Eberhard Shargh 138
4.6.1 Identification of evaluation criteria weights 139 4.6.2 Candidate rating by fuzzy group decision making 140
4.6.3 Project manager selection by fuzzy aggregation 141 4.7 Feedback from the case studies 142 4.8 Comparison of additive and non additive methods 143
4.8.1 Numerical example description 144 4.8.2 Solving numerical example by proposed method 147
4.8.3 Solving numerical example by fuzzy SAW 150 4.8.4 Comparative results and discussion 151
4.9 Summary 154
5. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 157
5.1 Introduction 157 5.2 Conclusions for research objectives 158 5.3 Recommendations for future research 160
REFERENCES 162
APPENDICES 170 BIODATA OF STUDENT 186
DEVELOPMENT OF A FUZZY INTEGRAL GROUP MODEL BASED ONLINGUISTIC REASONING FOR PROJECT MANAGER SELECTIONABSTRACTTABLE OF CONTENTSCHAPTERSREFERENCES