Post on 16-Mar-2021
UNIVERSITI PUTRA MALAYSIA
DEVELOPING AN EXPERT SYSTEM TO PREDICT THE EFFECT OF SELECTIVE LOGGING ON LARGE MAMMALS
MOUTASIM GAMMAR ELDIN ISMAIL
FK 2001 32
DEVELOPING AN EXPERT SYSTEM TO PREDICT THE EFFECT OF SELECTIVE LOGGING ON LARGE MAMMALS
By
MOUTASIM GAMMAR ELDIN ISMAIL
Thesis Submitted in Fulfilment of the Requirement for the Degree of Master of Science in the Faculty of Engineering
Universiti Putra Malaysia
January 200t
DEDICATION
To the soul of my father Gamar Eldin
To my beloved wife Dar Elnaiem,
daughter Eithar, son Gamar Eldin
and all my family
I dedicate this work with great love and appreciation for their kindness,
Encouragement and effort
ii
Abstract of thesis presented to the Senate ofUniversiti Putra Malaysia in fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science
DEVELOPING AN EXPERT SYSTEM TO PREDICT THE EFFECT OF SELECTIVE LOGGING ON LARGE MAMMALS
By
MOUTASIM GAMAR ELDIN ISMAIL
January 2001
Chairman: Mohamed Bin Daud, Ph.D., MBA.
Faculty: Engineering
Expert systems have started to play an important role in this era of knowledge.
As we move from information age to knowledge age, management and organization of
human expertise will have a great impact in all aspects of life in terms of time saving
and money.
An expert system (ES) to predict the effect of selective logging on large
mammals was developed through a combination of results from field survey,
interviews with domain experts and data from Department of Wildlife and National
Parks, Malaysia. The field survey was carried out for track identification of four large
mammals (barking deer, sambar deer, tapir and wild boar), vegetation and
microclimate measurements. ANOV A analysis of variance, regression and sensitivity
analysis were used to test the data. The problems related to selective logging and the
various aspects of its effects on large mammals were translated into specific rules and
incorporated into the ES. The data and information were stored in databases, which
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can be updated and referred to in the ES. The program provides information for
courses and teaching purposes as well as acting as advisor to draw conclusions. In
addition to this it helps wildlifers and foresters on decision making on the effect of
selective logging on large mammals.
lV
Abstrak tesis yang dikemukakan kepada Senat Universiti Putra Malaysia sebagai memenuhi keperluan untuk ijazah Master Sains.
PEMBANGUNAN SISTEM PAKAR UNTUK MERAMALKAN KESAN PENEBANGAN POKOK TERPILIH PADA MAMALIA
Oleh
MOUTASIM GAMAR ELDIN ISMAIL
January 2001
Pengerusi: Mohamed Bin Daud, Ph.D., MBA.
Fakulti: Kejuruteraan
Sistem Pakar memainkan peranan penting dalam era pengetahuan kini.
Perubahan kepakaran manusia daripada era maklumat kepada pengurusan
pengetahuan dan organisasi akan memberikan kesan yang baik dalam semua aspek
kehidupan dalam ertikata menjimat mas a dan wang.
Sistem Pakar atau (Expert System) untuk meramal kesan tempat tinggal keatas
mamalia besar telah dibina melalui gabungan keputusan daripada lapangan, temuduga
dengan pakar utama dan data daripada jabatan perlindungan hidupan liar dan taman
negara Malaysia. Lapagan kajian dijalankan dengan mengenalpasti jejak empat
kumpulan erbesar mamalia (rosa 'barking' , rosa "sambar' , tapir dan babi liar),
kumpulan tumbuhan dan penentuan cuaca-mikro. Anova analisa varians, regrasi dan
sensitiviti telah digunakan untuk menguji data. Masalah berhubung dengan pemilihan
temp at tinggal dan pelbagai aspek yang memberi banyak kesan kepada mamalia besar
telah ditukar kepada peraturan tertentu dan termaktub dalam sistem pakar. Data dan
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maklumat disimpan dalam pengelasan data dan boleh ditingatkan dan di rujuk melalui
sistem pakar. Program ini menyediakan maklumat untuk kursus kursus dan tujuan
pengajaran sebagai mana disarankan oleh penasihat. Perkara ini juga membantu
hidupan liar dan rimbawan untuk membuat keputusan atas kesan memilih temp at
tinggal mamalia besar.
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AKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First, I would like to thank Associate Professor Dr. Jr. Mohamed Bin Daud, the
chainnan of my supervisory committee, for his inspiration, guidance, intelligent
advice and various logistic supports throughout my study. His enthusiasm and
patience have left a feeling of indebtedness that cannot be fully expressed.
My acknowledgement, deep appreciation and sincere gratitude also extended
to Professor Dato. Dr. Ir. Mohd. Zohadie Bardaie, a member of the supervisory
committee, for his kind co-operation, contribution to guide this study and thoughtful
suggestions.
I must also thank Dr. Mohamad Zakaria Hussain who contributed much to the
success of this research. l owe him a great deal of gratitude and appreciation for his
supervision, correction and helpful comments in improving this study. I would like to
extend my gratitude to Sudan Government Upper Nile University and the Government
of Malaysia for their support to this study. I would also like to thank the Department
of Wildlife and National Parks, for their assistance in providing infonnation and
expertise.
My special thanks to all members of the Expert System Group, Faculty of
Engineering, for their helps co-operation and assistance.
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Last but not least, my thanks to my blessed mother Khadeega who has always
prayed for me, my brothers Ismail, Omar, Khaleel, Abbas, Mahmood, Talal, and my
sisters Fatima, Inam, Amna, Tegwa, Ferha, and Merwa for there encouragement.
On top of all, praise is to the Almighty Allah S . W. T. I would not have been
able to complete this study without His help.
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I certify that an Examination Committee met on January 9th 2001 to conduct the final examination of Moutasim Gamar Eldin Ismail on his Master of Science thesis entitled "Developing An Expert System to Predict the Effect of Selective Logging on Large Mammals" in accordance with Universiti Pertanian Malaysia (Higher Degree) Act 1980 and Universiti Pertanian Malaysia (Higher Degree) Regulation 1981. The Committee recommends that the candidate be awarded the relevant degree. The Committee Members for the candidate are as follows:
WAN ISHAK WAN ISMAIL, Ph.D. Associate Professor Faculty of Engineering Universiti Putra Malaysia (Chairman)
Mohamed Bin Daud, Ph.D., Ir. Associate Professor Faculty of Engineering Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member)
Mohamed Zakaria Hussin, Ph.D. Lecturer Faculty of Forestry Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member)
Mohd. Zohadie, Ph.D., Ir. Professor Faculty of Engineering Universiti Putra Malaysia (Member)
HAZAti MOHA YIDIN, Ph.D. Professo eputy Dean of Graduate School Universiti Putra Malaysia
Date: 0 6 fEB 2001
ix
This thesis submitted to the Senate of Universiti Putra Malaysia has been accepted as fulfilment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science.
MO�OHAYIDIJIi' Ph.D. Professor Deputy Dean of Graduate School Universiti Putra Malaysia Date:
x
DECLARATION
I hereby declare that the thesis is based on my original work except for quotations and citations, which have been duly acknowledged. I declare that this thesis has not been previously or concurrently submitted for any other degree at UPM or any other institutions.
(Moutasim Gamar Eldin Ismail)
Date:
Xl
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page DEDICATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. . . . .. . .. . . . . . . iii ABSTRAK . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ... . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. .. . . . vii APPROVAL SlIEETS .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix DECLARATION FORM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii LIST OF PLATES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xx
CHAPTER
I.
II.
INTRODUCTION ................................................................ 1 Statement of the Problem Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Significance of the Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Expected Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2 3 3 4
LITERA TURE REVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Selective Logging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ............... ..... ........... 6 Effects of Selective Logging on Animals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Effects on Microclimate
Description and Conservation Status of Mammals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
14
16
Expert Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ...... 21
Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... 21
Concepts of Expert Systems 24
Major Components of an Expert System . . . . . . . . . . . . ... .................... 25
Expert System Tools . ... . . . . . . . . . . .. . . .. . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . ................... 26
Domain Experts 29
111 MATERIAL AND METHODS ................................................. 32
Initial Knowledge Acquisition .................................................... 34
Research Methods 37
xii
IV
V
Location and Total Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 40
Surveys 44
Track Identification and Animal Count . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 45
Vegetation and Meteorological Measurements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Data Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Refining Knowledge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Field survey 48
Domain Experts Consultations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Expert System Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 50 Initial Consultations with Domain Experts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Knowledge from Field Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , . . . . . . . . 54
Abundance
Photography
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . 54
57
Vegetation Cover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . , 57
Microclimate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
Refining Knowledge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ... 61
Field Survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 1
Sensitivity Results 62
66 Interviews
Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 1
Expert System Development 78
Example of Rule Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Testing and Validation
CONCLUSIONS
Limitation of the Expert System
Future Work
103
107
1 10 111
REFERENCES 1 12
APPENDIX
A
B
C
D
Summary of Field Data
Data Sheet
Footprint Drawings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Questionnaire For Experts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..
xiii
1 1 8
1 18
12 1
123
124
E An Expert System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ................... ....................... 127 VITA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161
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LIST OF TABLES
Table Page
1 Description of Malayan Tapir 16
2 Description of Bearded Pig 17
3 Description of Barking Deer 18
4 Description of Sambar Deer 19
5 Summary of Basic Information on Six Large Mammals 35
6 Causes of Tree Mortality 50
7 Disturbance Percentage and Total Damage Caused by Selective Logging Using Hauling Tractors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
8 Forest Size in Relation to Home Range Size 52
9 Food Types and Changes Following Food Scarcity 53
10 Number of FootprintslKm2 of Large Mammals 54
11 Relative Abundance of Barking Deer 55
12 Relative Abundance of Sambar Deer 55
13 Relative Abundance of Tapir 56
14 Relative Abundance of Wild boar 56
15 Average Tree Height and Canopy Covers 57
16 Average Temperature Relative Humidity and Light Intensity 60
17 Correlation between the Number of Footprints and Microclimate 62
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18 Decrease in the Number of Footprints of Sambar Deer Following Increased Relative Humidity (C 18) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
19 Increase in the Number of Footprints of Sambar Deer Following Increased Light Intensity (C 18) . . . . . . . .... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
20 Increase in the Number of Footprints of Tapir Following Increased Light Intensity (24 VIR) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
2 1 Increase in the Number of Footprints of Wild Boar Following Increased Light Intensity (24 VIR) . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
22 Summary of the General Mitigation Measures 67
23 Effect of Selective Logging at <50% Disturbance on Large Mammals and the Possible Mitigation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
24 Effect of Selective Logging at 50-60% Disturbance on Large Mammals and the Possible Mitigation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
25 Effect of Selective Logging at >60% Disturbance on Large Mammals and the Possible Mitigation Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
26 Rules Development 78
27 Combination of Animal Selection and Disturbance Levels 83
28 Combination of Disturbance Percentage and Forest Size 87
29 Combination of Forest Size and Forest Continuation 89
30 Combination of Forest Continuation and Food! Prey Availability 90
31 Combination of Food Availability and Salt Lick Accessibility 92
32 Summary of General Effects and Mitigation Measures 101
33 Validation of Effects and Mitigation Measures 105
34 Comparison of Results Between Expert System to Actual Case 106
xvi
Figure
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12a
12b
13
14
15
16
17
LIST OF FIGURES
Major Components of an Expert System
Conceptual Framework
Study Sites
Opening Menu of Expert System
Selection Menu with Mammal Options
Selection of Disturbance Percentage
Forest Size Selection
Selection of Forest Continuation
Selection of Prey Species
Selection of Food Availability
Selection of Salt Lick Accessibility
Logging Effects, Mitigation Measures and Selection Status A
Logging Effects, Mitigation Measures and Selection Status B
Forest Selection
Forest Continuation Selection
Disturbance Percentage Selection
Animal List, Mitigation Measures and Selection Status
Message Box from Mammal Icon
xvii
Page
26
33
41
82
82
86
88
90
91
93
94
96
96
97
98
98
99
100
18
19
20
Message Box from Logging Icon
Mitigation Icon
Message Box from Mitigation Icon
xviii
102
102
103
Plate
1
2
3
4
Barking Deer Footprints
Wild Boar Footprints
Sambar Deer Footprints
Wild Boar Wallow
LIST OF PLATES
XIX
Page
58
58
59
59
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
ft Feet
h Hour
AI Artificial Intelligence
FR Forest Reserve
Gill Graphical User Interface
IE Inference Engine
IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources
KB Knowledge Base
LHS Left Hand Side
LISP Programming Language based on list processing.
LRB Langat River Basin
MYCN A classic expert system developed to diagnose Infectious blood diseases and help doctors recommend the appropriate treatment.
PROLOG Program in Logic
PROSPECTOR An expert system for helping to find ore deposits
RHS Right Hand Side
TMP Third Malaysia Plan
UKM Universiti Kabansaan Malaysia
VJR Virgin Jungle Forest
WM Working Memory
xx
CHAPTER I
INTRODUCTION
The problem of selective logging and its effect on fauna and flora has
recently become an important issue and there is a need for more public awareness
and consciousness.
The overall objective of this study is to develop an expert system to predict
the effect of selective logging on large mammals. This is accomplished by using
primary data from field survey and observations of four species of large mammals
(tapir, wild boar, sambar and barking deer), and secondary data from interviews with
two wildlife experts on six large mammals (elephant, seladang, rhino, tiger, leopard
and sun bear).
Vegetation cover and microclimate measurements at three compartments in
Sungai Lalang Forest Reserve, and data from various sources mainly interviews with
wildlife experts were used. All types of data were integrated with statistical analysis
that provided numerical relations. This data was incorporated in the expert system
using rules in the form of IF and THEN.
2
Statement of the Problem
In Malaysia, of an estimated 19.8 million ha of remaining forest in 1986, 14.8
million ha (74.7%) were reserved as production forests and subject to selective
logging (Lambert, 1 992).
Economic development is almost inevitably synonymous with disturbance or
destruction of the natural habitat. The prospects for survival of rain-forest wildlife in
such areas are bleak (John 1985). Therefore, study on development activities resulting
in varied habitat destruction and effects on the existing wildlife are necessary.
In order to protect and conserve natural forest and to maintain its unique
biological diversity, it is important to increase public awareness and education level of
conservation issues. It is also important to provide a reliable management tool to
assist decision-makers to achieve at the favor of conservation. This study is an attempt
to help those people in increasing awareness, making decision and providing
infonnation to end-users.
3
Objectives
The purpose of this study is to assist management in predicting the effect of
selective logging on large mammals. The specific objectives of this study are:
1 . To study the effect of selective logging on large mammals.
2. To study the effect of selective logging on micro-climatic variables and their
relation to the effect on large mammals.
3 . To extract knowledge in relation to the effect of selective logging on large
mammals.
4. To develop a comprehensive expert system to predict the effect of selective
logging on large mammals. This expert system will be used as a tool to assist
people to react to the problem of selective logging. It can also be used to increase
public awareness, teaching, decision-making, management and development.
Significance of the Study
Knowledge could be incorporated into an expert system. This expert system
can predict the level of selective logging that affects, the impacts on mammals
inhabiting the forest and the extent of damage on the forest.
4
The expert system can provide predictions on the degree and/or the type of
effects that may occur when applying specific percentage of selective logging. This
should increase cautiousness about the practice of selective logging.
Most important is that this expert system can become a very useful managerial
tool for wildlife and forestry departments. It can be used as a powerful tool to increase
awareness and to assist in decision-making.
The expected outcome of this research is an expert system that can be used in
predicting the effect of selective logging on large mammals. The knowledge about
selective logging, i ts effects and the possible mitigation measures is incorporated in
such expert system.
Expected Results of the Study
The outcome of this study is to provide information on large mammals and
their relation to selective logging and micro-climatic variables. This knowledge was
extracted from field survey and domain experts. It was incorporated into an expert
system that can be used for predicting the effect of selective logging on large
mammals in Malaysia. It includes the percentage of logging, forest size and food
availability. It is visualized that the ES would become a very useful prediction and
decision-making tool . The expert system developed could only be used to evaluate