Twisted Statistics

Twisted Statistics!

Kevin A. Barnes!April 23, 2008!

Tonight on “Twisted Statistics”!

! Introduction!! Part I: When statistics go bad!! Part II: Fun with Charts & Graphs!! Part III: The Ten Commandments of Data

Collection!! Part IV: Online Resources!! Questions and Conclusion!

Statistics or Sadistics?!

“Statistics will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write.” -- H.G. Wells!

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics.” -- attributed (by different sources) to Mark Twain or Benjamin Disraeli!

Types of Statistics!

! Accurate!! Inaccurate (unintentionally misleading)!! Inaccurate (intentionally misleading)!

Definitions!

! Eighty-four percent of Europeans have mixed feelings about the United States.!

Hyperaccuracy!

! The Native American mounds in Wisconsin are 12,003 years old.!

Measurement by Proxy!

! Almost everyone loves Mocha-Cola. Less than 1% of Mocha-Cola drinkers have asked for their money back.!

It Sounds Shocking, So …!

! Forty percent of all employee sick days occur on a Monday or a Friday.!

Jumping to Conclusions!

! Claim: Several individual countries have improved their infant mortality rates more than U.S. since 1980.!

! Conclusion Offered: The state of health care in the U.S. is inadequate.!

In Comparison To …!

! Crystal Meth use among U.S. urban teenagers is 20% lower.!

Deduction is not Induction!

! Observation: Sally, Betty and Joanne are women.!

! Observation: Sally, Betty and Joanne love Harrison Ford.!

! Conclusion: All women love Harrison Ford.!

Plain Old Urban Legends!

! Humans use only 10% of their brain.!

Other Things to Watch …!

! Make sure you’re getting the whole story!

! Consider the credibility of the original data source!

! Do a basic logic check - do the statistics make sense, or does something seem out-of-place?!

! In percentages, is the base too small!

Fun with Charts & Graphs!

From How to Lie with Statistics, Darrell Huff, 1954

More Fun with Charts & Graphs!

From How to Lie with Statistics, Darrell Huff, 1954

The Ten Commandments of Data Collection!1.  When you begin thinking about a

research question, begin thinking about the type of data you need to collect to answer that question.!

The Ten Commandments of Data Collection!2.  As you think about the type of data you

will be collecting, think about where you will be getting that data.!

The Ten Commandments of Data Collection!3.  Make sure the data forms you use are

clear and easy to use.!

The Ten Commandments of Data Collection!4.  Always make a duplicate copy of the

data file and keep it in a separate location.!

The Ten Commandments of Data Collection!5.  Do not rely on other people to collect or

transfer your data unless you have trained them.!

The Ten Commandments of Data Collection!6.  Plan a detailed schedule of where and

when you will be collecting your data.!

The Ten Commandments of Data Collection!7.  As soon as possible, cultivate sources

for your subject pool.!

The Ten Commandments of Data Collection!8.  Try to follow up with subjects who

missed their testing session or interview.!

The Ten Commandments of Data Collection!9.  Never discard the original data, such as

test booklets, interview notes, etc.!

The Ten Commandments of Data Collection!10. Follow the previous 9 commandments!!

“Ten Commandments of Data Collection” courtesy of Neil J. Salkind, University of Kansas

Online Resources!

! http://calculators.stat.ucla.edu/ => Almost every type of statistical calculator you could ever need!

! http://www.davidmlane.com/hyperstat/ => Hyperstat Online - An Introductory Statistics Guide and Online Tutorial!

Online Data Sources!

! http://www.census.gov/main/www/access.html => US Census Data!

! http://www.lib.umich.edu/govdocs/stats.html => The University of Michigan Statistical Resources (statistical data on dozens of topics from accidents to world development)!

Questions?!

! What is the average air speed velocity of an unladen swallow?!

Contact Information!

! Email: kevin@kevinabarnes.com!

! Download a PDF of this presentation at: www.kevinabarnes.com/downloads/mu/!

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