T.S. Danny

National Weather Service Raleigh & Newport/Morehead City

North Carolina Threat Assessment

Impacts: Aug. 27-29, 2009

Date/Time Created: 8/27/09 200 PM

Danny Current Position

Satellite image from 200 PM Thursday, Aug 27

550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS

NHC 3 Day Forecast for Tropical Storm Danny

Latest Danny InformationLatest Danny Information

Advisory Time:Advisory Time: 11 AM EDT 27 Aug

Intensity:Intensity: Sustained winds near 60 MPH Sustained winds near 60 MPH with higher gusts.with higher gusts.

Movement:Movement:

Minimum Pressure: Minimum Pressure: 1006MB or 29.711006MB or 29.71

AT 1100 AM , THE CENTER OF DANNY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FORECAST ON FRIDAY

Tropical Storm (34kt) and Hurricane (64kt) Wind Speed Probabilities

* Best chance (40-50%) of topical storm force winds along coastal NC from the Crystal Coast north along the Outer Banks. * Small chance of hurricane force winds along the Outer Banks.

Danny 12Z Model Track Guidance

Danny Hurrevac

Tropical Storm force winds of 34kt should remain limited to coastal counties with Hurricane force winds likely remaining just offshore the Outer Banks

Danny Swell

Friday Morning Saturday Morning

Swell energy from Danny will begin arriving in NC coastal waters this afternoon, and continue to build into Friday night. Along area beaches breaking waves are forecasted to be under 8 feet, with no coastal erosion or flooding anticipated at this time.

Danny Seas

Seas will start to build overnight as increased southeast swell moves into the region.

Sea heights will reach 5 to 7 feet along all coastal waters by Friday.

Friday Morning

Danny Seas

Seas will peak Friday Night into Saturday.

Sea heights will reach 5 to 7 feet along southern coastal waters, and as high as 6 to 9 feet north of Cape Lookout.

Danny Potential Rainfall up to 2 inches along the Outer Banks through Saturday morning

•Seas will increase across the marine area today as long period swells from Danny reach the area. Small craft conditions are expected at this time. •Rip current threat will increase across the entire area today and continue through the weekend. •Increasing winds possibly to tropical storm force and high surf is possible mainly across the Outer Banks late Friday continuing into Saturday. •Tropical cyclone watches may be issued later today.

Threat Summary

John Cole (Morehead City)john.cole@noaa.gov

Jeff Orrock (Raleigh)jeff.orrock@noaa.gov

References

NWS Newport/Morehead Cityhttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/

NWS Raleighhttp://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah

National Hurricane Centerhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov