Truths we must tell ourselves to manage climate change ... · Carbon budgets O GtCO 2 1600 3200...

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Truthswemusttellourselvestomanageclimatechange

RobertSocolow

EnergyTechnologiesAreaSeminarLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratory

February15,2018

Whatweproject,andhowfar

Whatweproject,andhowfar

DestinyStudiesisthesystematicexplorationofhumanity’scollectivefuture.

Ithasthepotentialtotransformtoday’stoxicpublicdiscourseandmutedacademicdiscourse.

CO2emissionsscenarios

TheFreshmanSeminar151capsules

Reunions: 0 10 25 50 2046isalsoPU#300.

“Timecapsulesforclimatechange,tobeopenedatyourreunions”

Student’stopics:SealevelriseandcitiesSolarradiationmanagementCarbondioxideremoval

SolarpowerBatteriesElectricCars

Eachstudentwroteabouttwoalternativefutures:Willtheelectriccardominateorfindonlyniches?Theyinterviewedpeoplewitharangeofviews:HowwilltheCatholicChurchdealwithgeoengineering?

“It’suptous.”

MuddLibraryPhotocredit:DeniseApplewhite

Theclimatechangeproblem

Doingordinarythings,wearechangingtheplanet.Becauseourclimatescienceissounsettled,thebestandworstoutcomesofwhatwearedoingaredramaticallydifferent.High-carbonindustrializationinthedevelopingcountriesistheNumberOneproblem.(Note:politicallycharged.)

Oursmallplanet

Ausefulapproximation:Thelong-termaveragetemperatureriseontheEarth’ssurfaceisproportionaltothecumulativeglobalemissionsofCO2.2oCisthemostdiscussedtarget.G=109.

Themultiplierfromemissionstotemperatureriserevealsthatourplanetissmall.Whenweasaspeciesdoordinarythings*globallywiththetechnologieswehave,weharmourselves.*Examplesofordinarythings:eatinghamburgers,commutingtowork,buildingwithconcrete,goingskiing.

1.WewishEarthwerelarger.

OGtCO2160032004800AAfewdecades Afewmore

decades1oC,already 2oC 3oC

Morethanacentury

CarbonbudgetsOGtCO2160032004800

AAfewdecades Afewmoredecades

1oC,already 2oC 3oCMorethanacentury

Ifwewerenotconfrontingclimatechange,theeraoffossilfuels(coal,oil,andgas)couldlasthundredsofyears.

Whatif,in2018,wehadstillnotfiguredoutCO2?

40≈2oC

1600 1600

40

1940 2020 2100

“Hubbertpeak”equivalent

1600 1600 1600

≈3oC

Addonerectangle:40billiontCO2/yr*40yrs

1940 2020 21402060

BudgetsdemandchoicesThebudgetconceptleadsinexorablytochoicesaboutwhichfossilfuelstoextractandwhichtoconsider“unburnable”:

When? Betteroptionssomeday?Whose? GeopoliticalstabilityUsedwhere? “Fairness”Forwhatpurpose? Whojudges?Whichfossilfuels? ThosewiththehighestH/Cratio?

2.Judgmentsaboutwhichfossilfuelsare“unburnable”havenoprecedents.

Climatechangehasuncertain“tails”

Warming

Concen

tration

ThisFigurewaspreparedbyMartinManningforWorkingGroup1duringthepreparationoftheIPCCFourthAssessmentReport(2007),buttheIPCCdidnotpublishit.Idid,withManning’spermission,inClimaticChange,2011.

TheIPCCfacedachoice.

Theuncertaintwitchinessoftheclimate

Warming

Concen

tration

Twitchyworld

Calmworld

TheIPCCchoice,2007

X

Later,intheFifthAssessmentReport(2012),thelackofconsensuswasnotdisguised:“Nobestestimateforequilibriumclimatesensitivitycannowbegivenbecauseofalackofagreementonvaluesacrossassessedlinesofevidenceandstudies.”

Wecouldbelucky…orunlucky

Thefourreddots:

550ppm:50%chanceof3oC,but1/6chanceof2oC.Lucky!

450ppm:50%chanceof2oC,but1/6chanceof3oC.Unlucky!

Warming

Concen

tration

Twitchyworld

Calmworld

Thebestandworstoutcomesofouremissionsareverydifferent.However,awellknownclimatescienceleader,whenIsaid,“Wecouldbelucky,”replied:“Youmustneversaythat.”

*3.“TailsScience”mustgetgreaterpriority.

1 meter 2 meters

4 meters 8 meters

Greenland ice sheet: 7 meters West Antarctic Ice Sheet: 5 meters

Reference pace for sea-level: +1 meter/century

Source: T. Knutson, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA. See: http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/~tk/climate_dynamics/climate_impact_webpage.html#section4

Sealevelrise:When?

“Committedemissions”Futureemissionsinherentincurrentinvestments

Globalviewofelectricpowerfrom2012.Assumes40-yearlifeforpowerplants,updatedforretirementsandplant-lifeextensions.

Collaborator:SteveDavis.Source:DavisandSocolow,Env.ResearchLetters,2014

Remainingcommitment

Remainingemissions,yearbyyear

Collaborator:SteveDavis.Source:DavisandSocolow,Env.ResearchLetters,2014

Globalremaining“committedemissions”fromthen-operatingpowerplants,1950–2012.(Assumesa40-yearlifetime.)

CHINA

Apreliminaryanalysisupdatedbyfouryears(to2016)shows355GtCO2ofremainingcommitments,thusacontinued4%/yeargrowth(DanTong,unpublished).

Total:300GtCO2

20121950

COALCHINAU.S.

Committedemissionsfromnewbuildings

Shown:Yanjiao,China

Mostpower-plantelectronsgotobuildings.Lessdemandforheating,cooling,andappliances–fewerpowerplants.

*4.“Committedemissions”prioritizeslow-carbonindustrialization.

Leapfrogging

Developingcountriesusedtobeunwillingtodosomethingbeforeitwasprovenintheindustrializedcountries.Theydidn’twanttobeguineapigs.Thisischanging.Forexample,Chinaisleapfroggingovertherestoftheworldwithhigh-voltagetransmission.

5.Thedevelopingworldwilldecidewhatkindofplanetweliveon.

Onebillionhighemitters

Source:http://www.climatescienceandpolicy.eu/2009/11/afocus-on-individuals-can-guide-nations-towards-a-low-carbon-world/

1114

9 5

3 1

0.7 0.5

1.9 0.8

3.6 0.7

1.2billion“highemitters”in2030.

Binboundariesat2tCO2/yrand10tCO2/yrarethe2003percapitavaluesforBrazilandEU.Mosthighemittersarenot“rich.”

2003 2003-30

Collaborators:ShoibalChakravartyandMassimoTavoni.

Wheredothehighemitterslive?

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

2030

2003

2-10

<2

0.00% 20.00% 40.00% 60.00% 80.00% 100.00%

2030

2003

USA otherOECD China othernonOECD

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1

2030

2003

>10

Morethanhalfofthe2030highemittersareprojectedtoliveoutsidetheOECD.

Thehigh-emitterlifestyleissimilaracrosstheworld.Bestpracticespioneeredinonecountrycanspread.

The“Paris”processcanhelp:participantsshowofftheirbestdishes.

6.“Paris,”apotluckdinner,canhelpdrivearacetothetop.

Highemittersandabjectpoverty

Individual cap: without floor: 10.8 t CO2 with floor: 9.6 t CO2

1

The world’s poor do not need to be denied fossil fuels.

“Solutions”

Therearestillmanyoptions.Isitalreadytimetodeclareawinner?Optionscanbemoredangerousthanclimatechange.

Stabilizationwedges…in2004

2011KentuckyDerby,APPhoto/MattSlocum.https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/2011-kentucky-derby/7

Slidepair:courtesyofGretaShum,AndlingerCenter,PrincetonUniversity

wind/solar

H2 for fuel CCS

nuclear

biological

efficient coal plants

gas for coal

end-use efficiency

storage!

Stabilizationwedges…in2018

MelbourneCup,TheForeignCorrespondents‘Club,HongKong.https://www.fcchk.org/event/melbourne-cup

U.S.powerplants:Replacedbywhat?When?

Age:40.

Relicensing? Earlyretirement?

WindPower:Low-OutputAnalysis(LOA)

A,B,C,andDmarkthefourlongestperiodswithwindpoweroutputbelow3GW,halfoftheannualaverage(6GW).Installedcapacity:17GW.

FigureandanalysiscourtesyofPedroHaro.

Windaccountedfor15%of2016ERCOT(roughly,Texas)electricityproduction.WindexpansioncouldbethwartedbyeventslikeA-D.

50%ofannualaverage

OnlyDisalonglull.(A,B,orCareresponsestohighwinds.)

Windspeed(SanMarcos,TX)

FigureandanalysiscourtesyofPedroHaro.

OnlyDisalonglull.(A,B,orCareresponsestohighwinds.)

FigureandanalysiscourtesyofPedroHaro.

Back-upwasprobablymostlynaturalgas.

Itseemsinevitablethatwindandsolarintermittencywillmakeusawareoftimeinnewwaysandwillincreaseourengagementwithnature.

*7.Solar-fossilandwind-fossilpackageswouldreducetheintermittencychallenge.Zero-carbonideologyisintheway.

RapidSwitch:Howquicklycanchangeoccur?

Howquicklycansolarandwindgainmarketshare?Howquicklycancoallosemarketshare?

Whatlimitshowquicklysocialnormscanchange?Windandsolarintermittencywillmakeusawareoftimeinnewwaysandincreaseourengagementwithnature.Howstronglywillweresist?

Historyisuseful:Howquicklydidautomobilesdisplacehorses?Whyneitherfasternorslower?Whatgoeswrongwhenchangeisattemptedtooquickly?

8.“RapidSwitch”(thepaceofchange)isripeforacademicinquiry.

Every“solution”isdangerous*.

EverystrategycanbeimplementedwellorpoorlyNuclearpower NuclearwarBiocarbon CompetingusesoflandGeoengineering Technologicalhegemony

“Cleancoal” Mining:workerandlandimpactsWindandsolar Unreliability Conservation Regimentation

Itisessentialtoidentifythe“conditionalities”thatmakeasolutionlessdangerous.

Riskmanagementreappears:Itispossibletoachieve2oCandregretdoingso.“Two-sidedreasoning”weighsboththethreatandthe“solutions.”

*IchoosethewordwithRioinmind.

Conditionality for nuclear powerNuclearpoweriscoupledinevitablytonuclearweapons.Alas,inthepasttwodecades,nuclearweaponshavebecomemoredesired.Thus,aconditionforthedeploymentofnuclearpowertoaddressclimatechangeneedstobethatitleadsawayfrom,nottoward,nationalnuclearweaponsprograms.TheIrandealshowstheextenttowhichsovereigntymustbecompromisedtosevertheconnectionbetweennuclearpowerandnuclearweapons.ThelogicoftheIrandealpointstowardtheinternationalizationofnuclearpower–especiallythe“fuelcycle”–includingfortheU.S.

9.Anuclearwarisapoortradefortheslowingofclimatechange.

Conditionality for biocarbon

Whatwillgowrongifwemoveheadlongtomaximizeglobalbiocarbonstockswithoutconditionalities?

Supposeyouwereaforesteroranagronomistinaworldwherethecarbonpricewasveryhigh.Youweretoldthatstoringcarbonwasyouronlyobjective.Whatwouldyoudo?Establishamonocrop?Pouronfertilizer?Beinventive.…

Conditionality for biocarbon

Whatwillgowrongifwemoveheadlongtomaximizeglobalbiocarbonstockswithoutconditionalities?

Supposeyouwereaforesteroranagronomistinaworldwherethecarbonpricewasveryhigh.Youweretoldthatstoringcarbonwasyouronlyobjective.Whatwouldyoudo?Establishamonocrop?Pouronfertilizer?Beinventive.…

Now,changeroles.Youarethepolicymakerinthesameworld.Whatconditionalitieswouldyouplaceonthecarbonmarketforbiostocksintheinterestofelicitingactionsyouwouldwelcomeanddeterringoutcomesyouwoulddecry?

10.Thebiosphereisatriskat$100/tC02.

GeoengineeringbyimitatingvolcanoesOnJune15,1991(threedaysafterthisphoto),Mt.Pinatuboinjected10milliontonsofsulfurintothestratosphere.

TheEarth’saveragesurfacetemperaturewas0.5oCcoolersixmonthslater,thenrebounded.

CoolingtheEarthdeliberatelybyperpetuallyinjectingsulfurparticlesintothestratosphereisanexampleof“geoengineering”(alsocalled“solarradiationmanagement”).

EngineeredEarthInafullyengineeredplanet:

•  Theremaybenowayback.

•  Thereisnoobviouspoliticalprocessthatwillreconcilecontendinggoals.

•  Takingotherspeciesintoaccountwillcreateconflict;manyspeciesdependontheextremeeventswefindunpleasantandcostly.

11.Bewareofusinggeoengineeringtoremovehighsandlows;itwilleradicatetheevolutionarynichesofcountlessspecies.

PatientEarth

“I will apply, for the benefit of the sick, all measures that are required, avoiding those twin traps of overtreatment and therapeutic nihilism.”

Hippocrates

*ModernversionoftheHippocraticoath,LouisLasagna,1964,http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/doctors/oath_modern.html

*12.Thelowestconceivablegreenhousetargets,achievableonlybycastingcautiontothewinds,arenotoptimal.

Twelvetruths1.   WewishEarthwerelarger.2.   Judgmentsaboutwhichfossilfuelsare“unburnable”havenoprecedents.3.   *“TailsScience”mustgetgreaterpriority.

4.   *“Committedemissions”prioritizeslow-carbonindustrialization.5.   Thedevelopingworldwilldecidewhatkindofplanetweliveon.6.   “Paris,”apotluckdinner,canhelpdrivearacetothetop.

7.   *Solar-fossilandwind-fossilpackageswouldreducetheintermittencychallenge.Zero-carbonideologyisintheway.

8.   “RapidSwitch”(thepaceofchange)isripeforacademicinquiry.

9.   Anuclearwarisapoortradefortheslowingofclimatechange.10.  Thebiosphereisatriskat$100/tCO2.11.  Bewareofusinggeoengineeringtoremovehighsandlows;itwilleradicatethe

evolutionarynichesofcountlessspecies.12.  *Thelowestconceivablegreenhousetargets,achievableonlybycastingcaution

tothewinds,arenotoptimal.

Cansuchpointsofdeparture–andmanycomparableones–enableamoreconstructiveconversationaboutclimatechange?

RememberwhatsupportingscienceinAmericalookedlike?

1st WH Astronomy Night for Kids 1st WH Science Fair

Honoring outstanding K-12 science teachers

Mathletes in the Oval Office

Visiting MIT’s Energy Lab

SlidefromJohnHoldren,December2017

HomagetotheresearchcommunityItsvalues:Rigor,engagement,independence,globalreach,collegiality,irreverence,moralcompass.

Itsscholar-friends:JohnHarte,MarcRoss,ArtRosenfeld,FrankvonHippel,BobWilliams,StevePacala,andmanymore.

Itshomesforme:Harvard,LBNL,CERN,Yale,Princeton

Itsyoungpeople:undergrads,graduatestudents,post-docs.Theyreplenishthespirit(“it’suptous”).Theytakethebaton.

Whatwillbeintheirtalksin2068?