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TROPICAL
STORM
SENDONG
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_Washi.html
Manila
Observatory(www.observatory.ph)
together with
Xavier UniversityDr. Ando Siringan, MSI
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Risk Lexicon!RISK! Likelihood of harm,loss, disaster!RISK= f (HAZARD, EXPOSURE,VULNERABILITY) !!
(UNDP and UNDRO, 1979)!
HAZARD! Physical impact ofdisturbance!
EXPOSURE! Elements affected byhazard!
VULNERABILITY! Susceptibility, capacityto prepare, absorb, &recover from hazard!
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Max Wind Speed(JTWC/1-min avg):
100 km/hr
24 hours total rainfallPAGASA Lumbia Station:
180mm
TROPICAL STORM SENDONG
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NAME% YEAR%HIGHEST%WIND%
SPEED%(KPH)%DEATHS%
DAMAGE%%
(Php%B)%
Rosing' 1995' 260' 936' 11'
Reming' 2006' 320' 754' 5'
Frank' 2008' 172' 938' 13'
Uring'' 1991' 95' 5101' 1'
Pepeng' 2009' 120' 492' 27'Ondoy' 2009' 85' 464' 11'
Sendong% 2011% ~100% ~1000+% @%
Nitang' 1984' 220' 1363' 4'
Typhoon2000.com!
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Max Wind Speed(JTWC/1-min avg):
100 km/hr
24 hours total rainfallPAGASA Lumbia Station:
180mm
TROPICAL STORM SENDONG
What is180mm
OF TOTAL
RAINFALL FOR ADAY?
Ondoy:Total 1 day
rainfall =~370mm
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0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1952
1953
1955
1956
1958
1960
1961
1963
1964
1966
1968
1969
1971
1973
1974
1976
1977
1979
1981
1982
1984
1986
1987
1989
1990
1992
1994
1995
1997
1999
2000
2002
2003
2005
134 (1985)129 (1998)
142 (1999)
Lumbia PAGASA Station (Rainfall mm/day)
From 1977-2005 (29 years), dailyrainfall that isgreaterthan 125mm in Lumbia, Cagayan de Oro
happened only three (3) times.
100
125
Data source: PAGASA
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Rainfall Distribution - Lumbia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
75 100 125 150 175 200
Rainfall (mm)
Frequency
1977-1980
1981-1990
1991-2000
2001-2005
Usual heavy rainfall
75 100 125 150 170 200
Range of amount of heavy rainfall(mm/day)
Ho
w
oftenithappens
PAGASA Lumbia StationRainfall Distribution
Data source: PAGASA
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Janu
ary
Februa
ry
March
April
May
June Ju
ly
Augu
st
Septem
ber
Octobe
r
Novembe
r
Decembe
rAver
ageMonthlyRain
fall(
mm)
Average Monthly Rainfall inPAGASA Lumbia Station
(1977-2005)
Data source: PAGASA
117 mm
Tropical stormSendong recorded~180mm of rainfall inLumbia station within1-day
180mm
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Xavier UniversityStation
DahilayanZipzone Station
HOW FAST DID IT HAPPEN?180mm / 24 hrs = 7.5 mm/hr180mm / 6 hrs = 30 mm/hr
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Hourly Accumulated Rainfall and Average Pressure in XavierUniversity, Cagayan de Oro City (16-17 Dec 2011)
0
10
20
30
40
5060
70
80
90
4AM
6AM
8AM
10AM
12PM
2PM
4PM
6PM
8PM
10PM
12AM
2AM
Rain(mm)
1002
1007
1012
Pressure(mb
ar)
Accumulated Rain
Hourly Rain
Bar
Accumulated Rain
84.8 mm
Data from Xavier University, Cagayan de Oro
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Hourly Accumulated Rainfall and Average Pressure in
Dahilayan (16 Dec 2011)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2AM
5AM
8AM
11AM
2PM
5PM
8PM
11PM
Rain(mm)
998
1000
1002
1004
Pressure(mbar)
Accumulated Rain
Hourly Rain
Bar
Accumulated Rain
119.11 mm
Data courtesy of Engr. Elpidio Paras
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TRMMCagayandeOro/Lumbia
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
11PM 2AM 5AM 8AM 11AM 2PM 5PM 8PM 11PM 2AM 5AM 8AM 11AM 2PM
3HourlyAccumulatedRainfall(mm)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
AccumuatedRa
infall(mm)
3HourlyAccumulatedRainfall
AccumulatedRainfall
3-Hour Accumulated Rainfall in Xavier University,
Cagayan de Oro City (15-17 Dec 2011)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
11PM
2AM
5AM
8AM
11AM
2PM
5PM
8PM
11PM
2AM
5AM
3-HourRain(m
m)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
AccumulatedRain
(mm)Accumulated Rain
Hourly Rain
HEAVYRAINFALL
WITHIN
~ 6-7HOURS
(5PM to12MN)Satellite-based
rainfall
5PM-12MN
5PM-12MN
Groundstation
3-hourlyaccumulatedrainfall
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HOW DID IT PROGRESS?
3 HOURLY
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL
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http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_Washi.html
TRMMprovided a "top
down"rainfall analysis
of Tropical Storm Washi on
Dec. 15. Light tomoderate rainfall (green
and blue) was falling
throughout the storm a
rate between20 to 40
mm per hour. There were
moreareas of heavy
(red) rainfall around the
center of the storm than
on the previous day.Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce
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This TRMM 3-D image
created from data on
Dec. 15, showed
Tropical Storm Washi's
tallest
thunderstorms
reached heights of
over 15 km and were
located in the feeder
bands converging into
northwest side of the
storm.
Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal
Pierce
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2011/h2011_Washi.html
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DEC 1511AM - 2 PM
mm in 3 hours
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 152PM - 5 PM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 155PM - 8 PM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 158PM - 11 PM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 15, 1611PM 2 AM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 162 AM 5 AM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 165 AM 8 AM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 168 AM 11 AMSatellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 1611 AM 2 PM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 162 PM 5 PM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 165 PM 8 PM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 168 PM 11 PM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 16, 1711 PM 2 AM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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DEC 175 AM 8 AM
Satellite based rainfall (TRMM)
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Northern Mindanao, Region 10, Elevation (based on SRTM 90m data)
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192
Data: PAGASA, XU, DMPI
291
223
475
217256
85
180
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RAINFALL! FLOODING
EARLY WARNING FLOOD
MODELING PRELIMINARY RESULTS
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Dec 16, 12 NN
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Dec 16, 1 PM
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Dec 16, 2 PM
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Dec 16, 3 PM
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Dec 16, 4 PM
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Dec 16, 5 PM
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Dec 16, 6 PM
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Dec 16, 7 PM
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Dec 16, 8 PM
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Dec 16, 9 PM
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Dec 16, 10 PM
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Dec 16, 11 PM
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Dec 16, 12 MN
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Dec 17, 1 AM
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Dec 17, 2 AM
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EXPOSURE
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Northern Mindanao, Region 10, Elevation (based on SRTM 90m data)
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Source: National Mapping & Resource Information AuthoritySource: Landsat MSS taken 1973Source: Landsat TM taken 1992Source: Landsat ETM+ taken 2002Source: SPOT taken 2005
compliments of:
MSabines
Slide Courtesy of XU, XU ERC
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Cagayan de Oro City has the highest population density by municipality/cityfor Misamis Oriental and the rest of Northern Mindanao
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2005 LAND USE2007 POPULATION DENSITY
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Isla De Oro
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AWARENESS ON HISTORICALINFORMATION
DO TYPHOONS PASS THROUGH
MINDANAO??
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1945-
1950
1951-
1955
1956-
1960
1961-
1965
1966-
1970
1971-
1975
1976-
1980
1981-
1985
1986-
1990
1991-
1995
1996-
2000
2001-
2005
2006-
2010
Numb
eroftyphoons
Number of typhoons that make landfall in Mindanaofrom 1945-2010 (BARS are EVERY 5 YEARS)
35 typhoons in the last 65 years
6 typhoons in the last 15 years
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GARCIA-HERRERA ET AL.: NORTHWEST PACIFIC TYPHOONS, 1566 1900, JGR, 2007
Typhoons trajectories identified by Selga for 1883 1900
~ 21 typhoons in 17 years
passed through Mindanao
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AWARENESS ON HISTORICALINFORMATION
DO TYPHOONS PASS THROUGH
MINDANAO??
IN DECEMBER??
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Roughly 1 TYPHOON per 10 YEARS
cross Mindanao in DECEMBER
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DECEMBER 16-17, 1920
Lowest pressure at ~4am
Manila Observatory Archives
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DECEMBER 1930
Manila Observatory Archives
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1992 and earlier
Land use figures courtesy of XU ERC
1973
1992
2002 2005
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Extreme weather event; !rainfall potentially enhanced by
orographic mountain effect !
Expansion of built up areas;!
Cagayan de Oro densely
populated!
Awareness, Information
(Baselines, historical .)
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THANK YOU
www.observatory.ph
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Valuable contributions to this analysiscome from:
Genie Lorenzo Fernando Siringan
Faye Cruz Toni Loyzaga
Julie Dado Celine Vicente
Emil Gozo Gemma NarismaRaul Dayawon
Xavier University
Many thanks to Engr. Elpidio Paras for providing the
data at the Dahilayan Adventure Park.