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NESTOR B. NIMESWeather Specialist I

Task Leader

Department of Science and TechnologyPhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

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EYEEYE

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Typhoon Paeng, October 24-31,2006

Tropical DepressionTropical Depression( Maximum winds less ( Maximum winds less than 64 KPH )than 64 KPH )

T i l StT i l St

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Tropical StormTropical Storm( Maximum winds 64 to ( Maximum winds 64 to 117 KPH ) 117 KPH )

Typhoon Typhoon (Maximum winds greater (Maximum winds greater than 117 KPH )than 117 KPH )

((Super Typhoon- was conceived by JTWC with max winds of greater than 200 kph near the center)

THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY [PAR]PAGASA

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NAMES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PHILIPPINES

AABBCCDDEEFFGGHHIIJJ

II IIII IIIIII IVIV2001 2002 2003 20042005 2006 2007 20082009 2010 2011 20122013 2014 2015 2016

• AURING• BISING• CRISING• DANTE• EMONG• FERIA• GORIO• HUANING• ISANG

JOLINA

AGATONAGATONBASYANGBASYANGCALOYCALOYDOMENGDOMENGESTERESTERFLORITAFLORITAGLENDAGLENDAHENRYHENRYINDAYINDAYJUANJUAN

AMANGAMANGBEBENGBEBENGCHEDENGCHEDENGDODONGDODONGEGAYEGAYFALCONFALCONGORINGGORINGHANNAHANNAINENGINENGJUANINGJUANING

AMBOAMBOBUTCHOYBUTCHOYCOSMECOSMEDINDODINDOENTENGENTENGFRANKFRANKGENERGENERHELENHELENIGMEIGMEJULIANJULIAN

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JJKKLLMMNNOOPPQQRRSSTTUUVVWWYYZZ

• JOLINA• KIKO• LABUYO• MARING• NANDO• ONDOY• PEPENG• QUEDAN• RAMIL• SANTI• TINO• URDUJA• VINTA• WILMA• YOLANDA• ZORAIDA

JUANJUANKATRINGKATRINGLUISLUISMILENYOMILENYONENENGNENENGOMPONGOMPONGPAENGPAENGQUENNIEQUENNIEREMINGREMINGSENIANGSENIANGTOMASTOMASUSMANUSMANVENUSVENUSWALDOWALDOYAYANGYAYANGZENYZENY

JUANINGJUANINGKABAYANKABAYANLANDOLANDOMINAMINANINIÑAÑAONYOKONYOKPEDRINGPEDRINGQUIELQUIELRAMONRAMONSENDONGSENDONGTISOYTISOYURSULAURSULAVIRINGVIRINGWENGWENGYOYOYYOYOYZIGZAGZIGZAG

JULIANJULIANKARENKARENLAWINLAWINMARCEMARCENONOYNONOYOFELOFELPABLOPABLOQUINTAQUINTAROLLYROLLYSIONYSIONYTONYOTONYOULYSSESULYSSESVICKYVICKYWARRENWARRENYOYONGYOYONGZOSIMOZOSIMO

AUXILLIARY NAMES OF TROPICAL CYCLONES

AABBCCDDEEFFGGHHIIJJ

II IIII IIIIII IVIV2001 2002 2003 20042005 2006 2007 20082009 2010 2011 20122013 2014 2015 2016

• ALAMID• BRUNO• CONCHING• DOLOR• ERNIE• FLORANTE• GERARDO• HERNAN• ISKO

JEROME

AGILAAGILABAGWISBAGWISCHITOCHITODIEGODIEGOELENAELENAFELINOFELINOGUNDINGGUNDINGHARRIETHARRIETINDANGINDANGJESSAJESSA

ABEABEBERTOBERTOCHAROCHARODADODADOESTOYESTOYFELIONFELIONGENINGGENINGHERNANHERNANIRMAIRMAJAIMEJAIME

ALAKDANALAKDANBALDOBALDOCLARACLARADENCIODENCIOESTONGESTONGFELIPEFELIPEGARDOGARDOHELINGHELINGISMAELISMAELJULIOJULIO

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JJ • JEROME JESSAJESSA JAIMEJAIME JULIOJULIO

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Tropical Cyclones Tracks in the WNP(1948-2006)

CLIMATOLOGICAL TRACKS (Quarterly) TROPICAL CYCLONES ENTERING THE PAR

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Sorsogon, SorsogonSeptember 2006

KINDS OF HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE:

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1) STRONG WINDS)Sorsogon, SorsogonSeptember 2006

Legaspi CitySeptember 2006

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2.

Infanta, Quezon Nov. 2004Infanta, Quezon

Nov. 2004

3. FLOOD/FLASHFLOOD

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Pampanga

Sheet FloodLandslides

Cagayan

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4. STORM SURGE(DALUYONG NG BAGYO)

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Storm Surge Definition

Storm surge is the sudden increase insea water level associated with the passageof a tropical storm or typhoon. This is due to

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the push of strong winds on the water surface(wind setup), the piling up of big waves (wavesetup), pressure setup (storm centralpressure) and astronomical tide movingtowards the shore.

Storm Surge Generation

Tropical Cyclone

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Source: Wikipedia

Actual Surge height

STORM SURGE PROFILE

Inundation coverage

Flooded area

High tide

Storm Surge = Astronomical tide+pressure setup+wind setup+wave setup

Wind flow

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Astronomical tide during occurrences

Mean lower low water mark (MLLW)DATUM

Tide height

Total surgeTopo-bathymetric profile

Mean Sea Level (MSL)

High tide

Low tide

Wave Height

ExamplePAGASA

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Surge Height

High Tide and Low Tide – Effect on surge height

Storm Surge Occurrences

This will happen at landfall or passageof a tropical storm or typhoon in a locality.Thi i ht b h d d i f ll i th

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This might be ahead, during or following thecoming of a strong or high winds of thestorm.

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THE RIGHT-FRONT-QUADRANT (RFQ) 1) ANGLE OF ATTACK - PERPENDICULAR ATTACK

The forward speed of the tropical cyclone/hurricane plays a critical role in the overall surge height;

FAST MOVING HURRICANE: (15.1mph to 35mph: 24 to 56 KPH) The surface wind stress is increased in the right-front quadrant thus creating a higher storm surge on the outer coast versus the storm surge from a slow moving hurricane

2) FORWARD SPEED

surge from a slow moving hurricane.

SLOW MOVING HURRICANE: (0 mph to 15.0mph:0 to 24 KPH) However, a slow moving hurricane may produce the opposite effect inside of a bay, estuary or river system. This is because slow moving hurricanes have more time to pump water into inland water bodies than do fast moving hurricanes.

AND: There are also cases where neither rule mentioned above will apply.

3) COASTAL CONFIGURATION-SHAPE

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3) TYPE OF SLOPE AND SURGE EFFECT

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1) Gentle Slope of a continental shelf

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2) Steep Slopeof a continental shelf

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Disasters due to Storm Surge

Particularly those living in the coastal areas: • Destroy or carry offshore houses & bancas• Cause of death• Coastal inundation and flooding in

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• Coastal inundation and flooding inthe low lying areas

• Coastal erosion-caused damage on dikes or seawalls -buildings collapsed

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Historical Surge Height Recordedin the Philippines

This might be as one or two-storeybuilding or more (3m-10m) depending on the

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building or more (3m 10m) depending on thetrack, speed and sustained wind of a typhoon,coastal configuration and bathymetry (seafloor profile).

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The seawall was heavily damaged by surge/swell in Magsaysay, Misamis OrientalJanuary 13, 2009

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The school compound at Caroan, Gonzaga, Cagayan and the more than 2

hectare land area were carried away by storm surge during the occurrence of TYIgme (2004). The height of watermark at the wall was about 2.25 m.

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The seawall invaded by storm surge during TS Caloyin San Antonio, Northern Samar last May 11-12, 2006.

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The onset of surge inundation as TS Caloy battered the area in Northern Samar.

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The inundation coverage of storm surge by TS Caloy.

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A portion of the barangay in Bgy. Bangan, Botolan was heavily scoured by storm surge during T. Cosme (2008).

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The totally damaged resort in Bgy. Laoag, Cabangan,Zambales by storm surge during T. Ondoy (2009).

MONITORING THE READY PROJECT

Hazard Mapping and AssessmentHazard Mapping and Assessment for Effective Community-based

Disaster Risk Management

Storm Surge/Flood Hazard Mapping in the Philippines

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2011(July 2011-July 2012

1. Cagayan2. Isabela3. Nueva Vizcaya

20081. Bohol

27 PROVINCES COVERED

20091. Northern Samar2. Eastern Samar3. Zambales

20101. Antique2. Iloilo

(June)

2012(July 2012-July 2013)

1. Zamboanga Sibugay

LUZON

4. Quirino5. Agusan del Sur6. Zamboanga del Sur*

2. Aurora3. Cavite 4. Pampanga5. Laguna

20071. Southern Leyte 2. Leyte

2006 1. Surigao del Sur2. Surigao del Norte3. (Dinagat Island)

2010-2011(July 2010-July 2011)

1. Rizal*2. Catanduanes3. Benguet*4. Abra5. Ilocos Sur*6. Ilocos Norte

* Started the 1:10k for floods & landslide as well as Storm surge for Ilocos Sur, Tsunami EWS in ZDS started

VISAYAS

MINDANAO

Surigao del SurSurigao del NorteLeyteSouthern LeyteBoholIloilo

CaviteLagunaRizalNueva VizcayaCatanduanesAgusan del Sur

PampangaAuroraZambalesIlocos SurIlocos NorteBenguet

27 PROVINCES TARGET OF READY

IloiloAntiqueNorthern SamarEastern Samar

Agusan del SurAgusan del NorteZamboanga del SurZamboanga Sibuguey

BenguetAbraIsabelaCagayan

READY 1 Project – 2 provinces READY 2 Project – 16 provinces covered by Storm Surge

MAPPING METHODOLOGY

Input Data:a) Typhoon parameters from historical data:

- T. Cosme (May 14-19, 2008) & T. Norming (Aug. 20-Sept. 4, 1982)

- Radius of max wind sustained wind tracks

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1. Storm Surge Model Simulation

Radius of max. wind, sustained wind, tracks, and wind direction and speed

b) Digitization of Bathymetric data extracted from Nautical chart (map) from BCGS/NAMRIA.

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SITE (Province)( )

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Nov. 13/10AM - landfall

TYPHOON RUPING (1990)

2) Fieldwork:a) Courtesy call PAGASA

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SUBIC

PDOC

CANDELARIA

IBA

b) Conduct interviews in the coastal areas on notabletyphoon events and surge occurrences.

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PHIL NAVY, SN. NARCISOPMMA, SN. NARCISO

BGY. BANGAN, BOTOLAN BGY. SN. MIGUEL, SN. ANTONIO

c) Measure the surge height and the inundationcoverage as per interview using a level instrument and aGPS. PAGASA

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3. Analysis, Computation and Storm Surge Hazard Map Development

LEGEND:

Inundations of 1m. Surges

Inundations of >1m. to 4 m. Surges

Inundations of >4 m. to 12 m. Surges

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PROVINCIAL STORM SURGE HAZARD MAP 1: 120,000 Scale

1) ZAMBALES (LUZON-WEST)

LEGEND:

Inundations of 1m. Surges

Inundations of >1m. to 4 m. Surges

Inundations of >4 m. to 12 m. Surges

2) AURORA (LUZON-EAST)

3) NORTHERN SAMAR (VISAYAS) 4) SURIGAO DEL NORTE

ANTIQUE BOHOL

FLOOD HAZARD MAPS:

Includes municipalities of San Jose, Sibalom and Hamtic

Includes municipalities of Jagna, Guindolman, Anda and Candijay

“Disasters can be prevented and mitigated ifappropriate measures are adopted. These can be

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pp p pachieved by proper understanding and preparednessabout the hazards and the threats posed by them.”

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WEBSITE

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.phhttp://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

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433433--ULAN (433ULAN (433--8526)8526)DIAL-A-WEATHER

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