Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 1

Metropolitan Networks: Metropolitan Networks:

Trends, Technologies, and EvolutionsTrends, Technologies, and Evolutions

Dr.Dr. Nasir GhaniNasir GhaniSenior Architect, Sorrento Networks IncSenior Architect, Sorrento Networks Inc

nghaninghani@@sorrentonetsorrentonet.com.com

Business Application SessionBusiness Application SessionIEEE ICC 2002IEEE ICC 2002

New York City, New York, May 1New York City, New York, May 1stst, 2002, 2002

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 2

OutlineOutline

�Background

�Emerging Trends

�Market Realities

�Solution Technologies

�Conclusions

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 3

BackgroundBackground� A brief “metro” taxonomy

• Spans very broad space: access/edge, metro/regional core• Interconnects end-user domains and long-haul• Entrenched legacy SONET/SDH (TDM) infrastructures

� Metro is becoming key operator focus• New and challenging paradigms give rise to opportunity• Complex setups, highest diversity (protocols, services)• Huge projected market size (> $4.0 billion by 2005):

Abundance of competing operators and vendors

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 4

Overall Network Taxonomy

BackgroundBackground

Metro Edge-Access Networks

10-50 km

Networked storage(Fibre Channel)

Mainframes(ESCON, FICON)

Circuit emulation(ATM, frame relay)

Legacy voice leased line(DS-n, OC-n/STM-n)

Cable videoxDSLCellular/wireless

(DS-n, OC-n/STM-n)Gigabit

EthernetEthernetLAN

Metro/Regional Core Networks

100-1000 kmOC-48/192 ITU-T G.709

Long-Haul Core Networks1000-10000 km

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 5

OutlineOutline

�Background

�Emerging Trends

�Market Realities

�Solution Technologies

�Conclusions

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 6

� Traffic growth remains strong• New services: LAN extension, VPN, SAN extension• Growth approx 80-120% per year, over 80% data by 2003

� Improving end-user access technologies• New technologies (DSL, cable, “next-gen” & fixed wireless)• Low-cost Gig Ethernet connectivity (fiber, cable, copper)

� Deregulation intensifies metro competition• Multiple players (RBOC/PTT, CLEC, ISP, cable, utility)• Long-haul builds complete, focus on expanding client base

Emerging TrendsEmerging Trends

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 7

Likely case

2000 200320022001 2004

Rel

ativ

e vo

lum

e

10

20

30

40

2005

North American Internet Traffic

Best case

Worst Case

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02e

Cost per gigabyte ($000)

Storage costs declining

02468

10121416

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01e '02e '03e

Disk drive capacity shipped (petabytes)

Storage consumption rising

Emerging TrendsEmerging Trends

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 8

� “Metro gap”: legacy bandwidth limitations• Single-channel fiber exhaust, stranded core capacity• Node terminal/fiber expansion very slow, unfeasible• Difficult to scale beyond OC-192 rates (10 Gbps)

� Additional limitations abound• Data “multi-layering” is very inefficient (ATM, FR):

Separate layers, limited service definitions• Legacy provisioning costs exceeding revenues• SAN services support is lacking (no standards)

Emerging TrendsEmerging Trends

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 9

Emerging TrendsEmerging TrendsHierarchical Metro Legacy Networks

Broadband DCS’s

Patch panels

Long-haul DWDMtransmission

WidebandDCS

OC-3/12 edgeSONET rings

OC-12 edge SONET rings

WidebandDCS

Patch panels

Telephony switchIP

OC-n interfaces

DS-n

DSLAM

Central office

Multiple “stacked” IOFSONET rings (OC-48/192)

Central office

Central officeLong-haul POP

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 10

OutlineOutline

�Background

�Emerging Trends

�Market Realities

�Solution Technologies

�Conclusions

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 11

Market RealitiesMarket Realities

� Extremely challenging fiscal conditions• Large equity/stock erosion, high operator debt levels• Mid-term “cap-ex crunch”, vendor/VC slow investment

� Operator survival strategy: evolution not revolution• Lower costs, grow revenues, maximize existing networks• Cautious upgrades, consolidation (incumbents, cable emerge)• Competition will spur spending (cost, differentiation)

� Equipment vendors must react• Lower prices, increase margins, diversify clients, profitability• “End-to-end” metro solutions, increased carrier selectivity

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 12

Source: Yahoo Finance

SteadyGrowth

SteadyGrowth

Market Stabilization

“Cap-Ex” Retrenchment

Accelerated Growth

The “Bubble” Legacy

Market RealitiesMarket Realities

Estimated spending(as per demand growth)Massive long-haul core

overbuilds, operators incur large debt

Debt reduction, market consolidation, focus on metro and edge/access

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20041997 1998

Timeframe

Rel

ativ

e sp

endi

ng (U

.S. m

arke

t)

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 13

OutlineOutline

�Background

�Emerging Trends

�Market Realities

�Solution Technologies

�Conclusions

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 14

� New metro solutions are needed• Capacity/topology scalability (linear, ring, mesh)• Collapsed “multi-protocol” infrastructures• Rapid, flexible provisioning, “carrier-class” support• Access/core hierarchies remain (cost, operational reasons)

� Lowering operator cost is key• Initial first cost, achieve “pay-as-you-grow”• “Price-per-port” reduction vs. legacy TDM (>20%)• Reduced operations, maintenance, co-location costs

Solution TechnologiesSolution Technologies

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 15

� A case for metro/regional core DWDM• Scalability, service transparency, optical amplification• Superior gigabit economics, declining costs (≈20% / year)

� Static “1st/2nd generation” metro DWDM• Pt-to-pt transmission (fiber-relief), static add-drop (linear/ring)• Modular “right-sizing” lowers first cost, pair revenue/growth• Solid traction, strong growth (≈$2.0 billion by 2005)

� Later evolve to “3rd generation” dynamic DWDM• Intelligent control, “soft-optics” (switching, tuning, GMPLS)• High-capacity, rapid provisioning (shared rings, mesh)• Deployment will take time (maturity, cost, applications)

Solution Technologies: Metro CoreSolution Technologies: Metro Core

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 16

DWDM transmission

1st Generation

SONETOC-48/192

WDM

SONETOC-3/12

ADM

Point-to-point capacity expansion

FixedOADM

DCS

UPSR ring(16-32 λ)

Fixed filtering add/drop

2nd GenerationStatic linear/ring

1999-2004100’s Gb/s-Tb/s

Days

Dynamic OADM/OXC

3rd Generation

OXC

BLSR ring(40-80 λ)

Dynamic wavelength-provisioning ring/mesh

2004-201010-100’s Tb/s

Minutes-seconds

4th Generation

OPS/OXC

Circuit/packet nodes

Hybrid optical packet/circuit switching

2010+Petabitsms-ns

TimelineNetwork Capacity

Lambda Timescales

Solution Technologies: Metro CoreSolution Technologies: Metro Core

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 17

� Electronics for “fine-granularity” service control• Client diversity, “sub-rate” lambda grooming lowers costs• Optics will permeate (interfaces, capacity expansion)• Very large market (even exceeding metro core DWDM)

� New optical edge device (OED) solutions• “Re-optimize” use of existing capacity :

- “Next-generation SONET/SDH” (NGS)/MSPP- Ethernet switching, resilient packet ring (RPR)

• Add new capacity and improve utilization:Multi-service optics (xWDM-based solutions)

Solution Technologies: Edge/AccessSolution Technologies: Edge/Access

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 18

� “Next-generation SONET/SDH” (NGS)• Re-use TDM ubiquity, improve data/SAN support (VC, GFP)• Favorable as interim incumbent solution (familiarity)

� “Next-gen. Ethernet”: carrier-grade data transport• Ethernet switching uses MPLS QoS, protection schemes• RPR optimizes for “packet rings” (new MAC, CoS, protection)

� Multi-service optics: xWDM w. smart interfaces• Unamplified optics, optimized for small channel counts• CWDM optics further savings (lasers, filters, operations)• Add “thin mux” blades for TDM/data/SAN aggregation

Solution Technologies: Edge/AccessSolution Technologies: Edge/Access

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 19

Today’s Metro COToday’s Metro CO

ADMADMADMADM

ADMADM

RPR MAC

Ethernet RPREthernet RPR

OC-48OC-192

10/100 Eth

Gig Eth IP

Map all services to Ethernet packets

DWDM

IP

MultiMulti--Service ProvisioningService Provisioning

ATM

DCS ADM

E1,DS3/E3STM-n

ADM

NextNext--Gen SONET/SDHGen SONET/SDH

DCSDCSE1,DS3/E3

OC-n10/100/GE

10/100/GEGig Eth

Map all services to SONET/SDH frames

OC-48OC-192

DWDM

Map all services to transparent optics

MultiMulti--Service OpticsService OpticsGig EthSTM-n

FICON/ESCONFiber Channel

Cable videoTransponder

DWDM

FR

Solution Technologies: Edge/AccessSolution Technologies: Edge/Access

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 20

OutlineOutline

�Background

�Emerging Trends

�Market Realities

�Solution Technologies

�Conclusions

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 21

ConclusionsConclusions� Key metro market characteristics

• Broad domains, rising traffic, client/service diversity• Huge installed legacy base increasing costs:

Low scalability, service inflexibility, lengthy provisioning• Large market opportunity, very strong competition

� Future evolutions• Optics scalability/transparency, “future-proof” growth• Edge multiplexing for multi-service efficiency• Consolidation, highly cost-sensitized/staged migrations

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 22

� Mr. Andrew Knott, Vice President of Marketing, White Rock Networks Inc

� Mr. Atul Shinde, Co-Founder, Luminous Networks Inc

� Mr. Ronald J. Kline, Senior Analyst, Metro & Long-Haul Transport, RHK Inc

� Dr. Hasan Imam, Partner and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wireline & Wireless Equipment, Thomas Weisel Partners, LLC

Invited Guest SpeakersInvited Guest Speakers

Dr. Nasir Ghani, Metro Networks BAS Chair, IEEE ICC 2002, NYC, NY, May 1st, 2002© Sorrento Networks Inc, 2002 23

Further ReadingFurther Reading

� N. Ghani, J. Pan, X. Cheng, “Metropolitan Optical Networks”, Optical Fiber Telecommunications (OFT) IV, Academic Press, 2002, pp. 329-403.

� B. Van Steen, “Optical Networks: North American Metro Forecast Update,” RHK Metro Market Forecast Report, February 2002.