Post on 17-Jul-2015
Metro Atlanta and
Buckhead
Demographics and Economics
Mike Alexander, AICP
Research and Analytics Division Manager
Atlanta Regional Commission
malexander@atlantaregional.com
First a TEST!!!
So You
Think
You
Know
the City
of
Atlanta?
Which Area Added
The Most Population,
2000-2010?
This Southwest Atlanta tract has
added the most people with 4,267.
Which Area Has The
Highest
Concentration of
Those With At Least A
Bachelor’s Degree?
91.8% of the population have at
least a Bachelor’s Degree, in this
tract of South Buckhead.
Which Area Has The
Highest
Concentration of
Children Under 5
Years Old?
This Thomasville Heights tract has
20% of the population at age 5 or
younger.
Which Area Has The
Highest
Concentration of
People Over 65
Years Old?
The highest concentration of people
over age 65 is in this Buckhead
tract, with 27.3%.
Which Area Has
The Most
Children Added
Under Age 5?
The highest number of children
under 5 added is in this Western
tract, with 386.
Which Area Has
The Most People
For Ages 65 and
Over?
This Buckhead tract has 2,150
people over age 65, the highest in
the city.
Which Area of
Atlanta Has The
Highest Median
Household Income?
Atlanta’s highest median household
is $150,631 in this Buckhead tract.
How Have
Metropolitan
Atlanta and
Buckhead Grown?
Southeastern Population
Growth 2000 to 2010
County Net Change
Red to Tan = Growth
Blues = Loss Source: US Census
Metropolitan Growth 2000 to 2010
Source : Census Bureau, 28-County MSA
Total Hispanic Black White Total Hispanic Black White
Houston 1,231,393 745,935 214,928 85,643 Tampa, FL 387,246 203,566 72,970 57,482
Dallas 1,210,229 634,449 233,890 158,283 Chicago 362,789 462,377 (58,255) (193,010)
Atlanta 1,020,879 276,993 473,493 106,267 Minneapolis 311,027 77,162 83,464 63,623
Riverside 970,030 767,440 58,919 5,613 San Diego 281,480 240,383 (7,887) (48,786)
Phoenix 941,011 418,706 80,318 320,370 Philadelphia 278,196 181,963 93,161 (140,551)
Washington 785,987 341,107 155,648 58,019 Boston 215,058 128,911 54,009 (136,692)
New York 574,107 760,983 (67,709) (558,563) San Francisco 211,651 205,545 (37,595) (185,650)
Miami 557,071 608,865 191,658 (267,991) Baltimore 157,495 72,425 74,124 (66,652)
Los Angeles 463,210 583,070 (85,025) (361,772) St. Louis 114,209 31,582 36,764 7,349
Seattle 395,931 147,023 36,061 27,015 Detroit (156,307) 41,147 (37,603) (194,535)
Metro
2000-2010 Population Change MSA
Metro
2000-2010 Population Change MSA
Buckhead Population Growth
66,772
77,787
80,465
33,930
40,313
41,564
20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
2000
2010
2013
Households Population
Source: ESRI Demographics
Since 2010
Source: US Census Estimates
A Lot of Growth
Diversity
50.7 54.361.1
54.750.1
67.9
39.547.8
31.8 34.7
48.252.8
64.758.1
36.5
67.1
48.7
32.1
7.4
24.0
17.2
15.0
23.0
16.8
10.6
6.9
19.9
16.315.4
20.7
5.2
7.6
11.6
25.4
6.4
6.4
4.7
6.8
7.0
5.0
7.812.0
16.4
3.6
11.7 6.0
6.3
6.6
8.3
4.5 11.4
10.8
31.9
10.2
21.228.0
4.2
36.029.6
44.8 41.8
23.8 25.9
8.3
30.1
47.7
16.8 14.4
Metropolitan Ethnicity As a % of Total Population 2010 Census
Atlanta has a relatively small share of Hispanic Population compared to other metro areas.
White African American Other Hispanic
Source : Census Bureau 2010
Census
-100,000 -50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000
Atlanta
Spalding
Rockdale
Fayette
Clayton
Walton
Barrow
Carroll
Bartow
DeKalb
Newton
Coweta
Douglas
Hall
Paulding
Cherokee
Forsyth
Cobb
Henry
Fulton
Gwinnett
White
Black
Asian
Hispanic
Other
County Race & Ethnicity Change,
2000 – 2010 (US Census)
The Buckhead Superdistrict
2013 Population by Race Comparison
11.6%
0.1%
0.3%
2.6%
5.0%
4.9%
32.4%
54.7%
7.4%
0.0%
0.2%
2.1%
3.1%
4.5%
10.6%
79.5%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%
Hispanic Origin (Any Race)
Pacific Islander Alone
American Indian Alone
Two or More Races
Some Other Race Alone
Asian Alone
Black Alone
White Alone
Buckhead Atlanta Metro
Source: ESRI Demographics
Distribution of Race-2010
More than 200,000 Gwinnett
residents were born in a
different country!Source: U.S. Census
Age
0 5 10 15 20 25
0 - 4
5-9
10-14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 34
35 - 44
45 - 54
55 - 64
65 - 74
75 - 84
85+
Buckhead Atlanta Metro
2013 Age Comparison
Source: ESRI Demographics
20 County Area Compared to Nation
2010 Census 20-County Area
Baby Boomers:
Born between
1944 and 1963
GI and Silent
Generation:
Born before
1944
Generation
X (BABY
BUST):
1964 to
1977
Generation Y
(ECHO,
Millennial)
1978 to 1992
Generation
Z:
1993 to 2010
-10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00%
<5
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Female
Male
Nation
Where Millennials Live 2010 (AGE 15-30)
Health
Oh Yeah… Place Matters!
Source: County Health Rankings
Male Change in Life Expectancy
Source: County Health Rankings
1999 to 2009
Source: http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/
2009 Male Life Expectancy
Source: http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/
2009 Female Life Expectancy
Source: http://www.healthmetricsandevaluation.org/
Death Rates: Major Cardiovascular Diseases
Source: GA Dept. of Health (OASIS)
Education
34.1
46.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Pe
rce
nt
Metropolitan Statistical Area
HS-
BAC+
20 Largest MSAs: Educational Attainment, 2010
US: Bachelor 30.9% BLUE Equals
Percent without High School Diploma
50Source: American Community Survey, 2010 1-Year
US: 30.9%
51
Source: American Community Survey 2007-2011
Educational Attainment
Buckhead (SD) 75% with Bachelor’s Degree
164 5
15 2010 7 8
17 13 11 9 14 12 196 1 3
18
2
216 18
9 18
513 3 10 12 15 6 11
7
14 1920
4
17
11 1215 7
9 510
19
48
146
313 1
17 20 162 18
15 135 8 14 17 20
1
199 2
11 166 12 10 3 4
187
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Science/Engineering Business Education Arts/Humanities
Source: 2009 American Community
SurveyNote: The American Community Survey relies on sample data to develop estimates. The figures shown are the midpoint for a range of
possible estimates at the 90 percent confidence level. Since a range of estimates is possible for each metro area, the ranks may not
be exact.
Degree Type by Metro Area
(Ranks for each degree on chart)
High School Graduation Rates
88.4
86.27
82.32
81.9
78.23
76.21
76.01
74.85
74.82
74.74
73.35
72.73
72.35
70.98
70.05
68.53
67.56
67.08
66.22
66.2
64.22
64.14
58.82
58.65
58.43
56.01
51.96
51.48
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Decatur City
Forsyth
Buford City
Carrollton City
Fayette
Cartersville City
Paulding
Coweta
Cherokee
Walton
Cobb
Hall
Henry
Douglas
Fulton
Social Circle City
Gwinnett
Carroll
Bartow
Rockdale
Barrow
Newton
Spalding
DeKalb
Gainsville City
Marietta City
Atlanta Public Schools
Clayton
Graduation Rate, 2010-2011 NEW METHOD %
54
Source: GA DoE
Socioeconomics
2013 Income Comparison
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
<$15,000
$15,000 - $24,999
$25,000 - $34,999
$35,000 - $49,999
$50,000 - $74,999
$75,000 - $99,999
$100,000 - $149,999
$150,000 - $199,000
$200,000+
Buckhead Atlanta MetroSource: ESRI Demographics
Atlanta MSA and the Nation
Source: BLS, CES SAE series
Recent Atlanta MSA Trends by Industry MAY
Source: BLS, CES,
SAE
Recent Atlanta MSA Trends by Industry August
Source: BLS, CES,
SAE
Large Metros Employment Change
Large Metros Employment Change
Source: BLS CES SAE
Source: Zillow
Foreclosures Shifting 2007
PSQM
Source : Equity
Depot 66
Source :
Equity Depot 67
Foreclosures Shifting 2010
PSQM
Source : Equity
Depot
68
Foreclosures Shifting 2012
PSQM
Total Employment Change
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2010-2012
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2000-2010
Source: BLS, CES SAE
10-County Employment Change
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Professional and Technical Services
Retail Trade
State and Local
Administrative and Waste Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services, except Public Administration
Wholesale Trade
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Transportation and Warehousing
Construction
Manufacturing
Information
Educational Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Federal Civilian
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Federal Military
1990 1990to2011Source: REMI, BLS
Employment Change 2010 to 2012
Buckhead added
7,510 jobs
3rd Superdistrict in
Job Change
N Fulton and N
DeKalb 1-2
96, 471 Total Jobs
6th largest
Superdistrict
Employment Performance Comparison
3.86%
0.52%
-5.94%
-2.78%
4.44%
6.43%
-3.73%-5.51%
1.14%
8.44%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
05to2006 06to2008 08to2009 09to2010 10to2012
Metro Atlanta Buckhead
Source: ARC Estimates (GA Dept. of Labor Data)
Buckhead Prof Sc Tech job increase 2005-2012 4,161 (12%) is
22% of the total increase for the 20-County Region
Buckhead Employment Sectors (2011)
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Public Administration
Manufacturing
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Construction
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Other Services (excluding Public Administration)
Educational Services
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Transportation and Warehousing
Information
Administration & Support, Waste Management and…
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Finance and Insurance
Health Care and Social Assistance
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Source: Census LEHD On the Map
Commuting Patterns to work in Buckhead
Where Residents go to
WorkWhere Workers Live
How Will We
Change?
New Census Projections
77
South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast
to grow the most.
South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast
to grow the most.
South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast
to grow the most.
South Atlantic (Georgia) forecast
to grow the most.
Population Growth Comparison
United States 20-County Area Rest of Georgia
(139 Counties)
Source: Plan 2040 Forecasts, 2009
20-County Population
Trends: Draft
Forecast 2013
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
5,278
7,887
in T
housa
nds
Total Population
Average Annual %
Region’s Aging ProfileDRAFT Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Ages 0-4
Ages 5-9
Ages 10-14
Ages 15-19
Ages 20-24
Ages 25-29
Ages 30-34
Ages 35-39
Ages 40-44
Ages 45-49
Ages 50-54
Ages 55-59
Ages 60-64
Ages 65-69
Ages 70-74
Ages 75-79
Ages 80-84
Ages 85+
Age Pyramid
2010
2040
DRAFT Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)
87
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Ages 85+
Ages 80-84
Ages 75-79
Ages 70-74
Ages 65-69
Ages 60-64
More Diverse
71%
60%
50%
47%43%
40%
25%
28%
32% 31% 31% 30%
2%4%
7% 8% 9% 9%
2%
7%
11%14%
17%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
White Black Other Hispanic
Source: Plan 2040 Forecasts
20-County
Forecast
Area
24% 24%20%
68% 67%
60%
8% 9%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Age 65 and Older
Age 16-64
Age 0-15
Labor Force Share Getting Smaller
1,456,824 29%
3,103,125 63%
384,991 8%
Workers and Dependents - 2005
0-19
20-64
65+
2,086,038 25%
4,559,462 55%
1,610,823 20%
Workers and Dependents - 2040
0-19
20-64
65+
Roughly 1.6 workers for every dependent today. By 2040, roughly one-to-one
Source:
Census and
ARC
Plan2040
Forecast
89
Who is
(was)
moving to
Atlanta?
County Growth
Buckhead
2040
Population
113,961
44%
Increase
20-County Employment Trends:
Draft Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
4,824
in T
ho
usa
nd
s
Total Employment
1.99%
1.28%
1.24%Average Annual % Change
20-County Employment Change by Sector:
Draft Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Educational Services
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Management of Companies and Enterprises
State Government
Federal Civilian
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Information
Transportation and Warehousing
Finance and Insurance
Other Services, except Public Administration
Administrative and Waste Management Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Construction
Accommodation and Food Services
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Wholesale Trade
Local Government
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
1990 1990-2013 2013-2040
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Federal Civilian
Information
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
State Government
Educational Services
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Transportation and Warehousing
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services, except Public Administration
Local Government
Retail Trade
Construction
Administrative and Waste Management Services
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
1990 1990-2013 2013-2040
20-County Employment Change by Sector:
Draft Limited Transportation Update Forecast (2013)
Buckhead
2040
Employme
nt 135,272
54%
Increase
Metro Atlanta and
Cobb County
Demographics and Economics
for the
Traton Homes 2013
Mike Alexander, AICP
Research and Analytics Division Manager
Atlanta Regional Commission
malexander@atlantaregional.com
THIS IS A
VIDEO MAKE
IT PLAY BY
CLICKING
Employmen
t
Blue
Served
by Heavy
Rail Transit
Urbanized Area 1950 to
2010
Source: US Census, ARC
Growth Creates Demand for Infrastructure: Are We Prepared? TRANSIT (same scale, yellow transit lines and red transit stops)
Meeting Transportation
Challenges
Source: Plan2040
“If you want to be a leader, you’ve got to be a reader.”
David Noebel, religious leader and writer (1937–)
Questions?
Mike Alexander, AICP
Research and Analytics Division Manager
Atlanta Regional Commission
malexander@atlantaregional.com
http://www.neighborhoodnexus.org/http://www.atlantaregional.com/