©

Reflections on Transportation FuturesYesterday, Today, Tomorrow

©

©

The Present - How we got here

Everyone lives in 4,000-square-foot houses and has no free time for exercise each day.

Everyone lives in 4,000-square-foot houses and has time to get together with friends one evening each month.

Everyone lives in 4,000-square-foot houses and has one week of vacation each year.

Everyone lives in 2,000-square-foot houses and has 45 minutes available for exercise each day.

Everyone lives in 2,000-square-foot houses and has time to get together with friends four evenings each month.

Everyone lives in 2,000-square-foot houses and has four weeks of vacation each year.

Adapted from Robert H. Frank, Falling Behind

Society A Society B

©

980 square feet for 3.4 people (6)

1950 Average New Home

©

NOW: 5,000-8,000 Sq. Ft. Homes

For 2.6 people

©

1,500 pounds

1973 Honda Civic

©

2,895 pounds

2010 Honda Civic

©

©

What Is Your Image Of The Future?

©

'The Next American Economy' Conference, Palo Alto, California,

Feb. 3, 2010The shape of the next American economy must be export-oriented, low carbon, and innovation fueled.

This is a vision where we export more and waste less, innovate in what matters, produce and deploy more of what we invent. This is the kind of productive and sustainable economy which must emerge from the rubble of this recession.

Bruce Katz, Vice President and Director, Metropolitan Policy Program, Brookings Institute

©

Toward 2025 We will transform the transportation system

in next 15 years, and we must, to keep us competitive and to respond to reality.

Will require a whole-systems view of community forms, energy, communications, transportation.

Will require Technology + Reconsidered Personal and Community Values

Optimism: We’ll succeed if we choose the right problems and apply the right solutions.

©

The Future Trend 1: Economic volatility Trend 2: Environmental

issues stay in foreground Trend 3: End of cheaper

and cheaper energy Trend 4: Shifting

demographics Challenge 1: Energy

Transition Challenge 2: Transportation

for living, not living for transportation

Challenge 3: Make Philly legal

Challenge 4: Breakthrough Thinking

©http://ab.typepad.com/.a/6a00e5523754908833010536c48f53970c-800wi

Not enough people make enough money to buy what we pretended they could

©

Arbor Day Planting Map

©

©

ImagecreditSuperAlloys.com

When is Peak Oil?

©

2009 IEA World Energy Outlook50 mbd additional output needed by 2030

©

China’ Tsunami of New Cars:Increased China consumption won’t stop soon.

©

27 Florida’s by 2025States where at least 20% ofThe population will be elderly

©

Traditionals…

now 80+

Boomers…now 61-79

Generation X …now 45-60

Millennials…now 25-45

Generations 2025

Post Millennial …now 5-25

©

Tesla100% Electric0-60 in 4 seconds135 mpg equivalent250 miles per charge1 cent/mile

AltairNano

Challenge 1: Energy Transition

©

GAO February 2007

Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040.

In the United States, alternative fuels and transportation technologies face challenges that could impede their ability to mitigate the consequences of a peak and decline in oil production, unless sufficient time and effort are brought to bear.

However, there is no coordinated federal strategy for reducing uncertainty about the peak’s timing or mitigating its consequences.

©

Is the answerMore of the Same?

©

Re-invent Energy by 2050 Increase efficiency of new

appliances and buildings to achieve Zero-carbon emissions, resulting in 25% total reduction by 2050.

Add 3 million 1-megawatt windmills globally, 75 times current capacity.

Add 3000 gigawatts of peak solar photovoltaic, 1000 times current capacity.

No net new net coal power plants

Shift 2 billion cars from 30 mpg to 60 mpg by 2050.

Decrease driving for 2 billion cars in half

Develop Zero-emission vehicles

©William Calvin, Global Fever

©

17% Increase = All Electric Fleet

William Calvin, Global Fever

©Konarka Technologies, Technology Review July/August 2004NanoSolar.com

©

Challenge 3: Transportation for Living

©

Mobile Web = Game ChangerCar Sharing + Mobile Web

©

Critical to Increase Transit & Inter-City Rail

But 80% in U.S. Live in Thin Cities & Struggle to Access Transit -A major disconnect to creating a balanced U.S. mobility system

©

Missing Ingredient: The Networked Personal Vehicle

Right Sized and Right Priced Personal Mobility to Access Transit

Based on Dan Sturgis, Intrago

©

Challenge 3: Make Philly Legal

http://www.rosschapin.com/

©

Case Study: Mountlake Terrace

• Suburb of Seattle

• Mostly 50s & 60s development

• Typical “1st ring” demographics

Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace

©

Changing Environment• Demographics• Busy lifestyles• More interest in

walking, bicycling, transit

• Support for Town Center

• Awareness of climate change & sustainability

Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace

©

Mountlake TerraceDevelopment Code 4 Years Ago

Single-Household Zone Code Requirements:

• Min. 7200 or 8400 sf lots *• Min. 20’ front, rear setbacks *• Min. 12’ combined side

setbacks *• Max. 35% lot coverage• 2 parking spaces per unit• ADUs strongly restricted• No design standards

* Except for PUDs

Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace

©

Mountlake Terrace Development Code Now

Single-Household Zone Code Requirements:

• Min. 7200 or 8400 sf lots—with exceptions

• Min. 15’ front, rear setbacks• Min. 5’ side setbacks• Max. 40% lot coverage• Cottage housing OK• ADUs OK• 2 parking spaces per unit (with

exceptions for cottage housing)• Design standards required

Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace

©

Mountlake Terrace Development Code 4 Years Ago

Multi-Household Zone Code Requirements:

• Max. 8 or 16 du/acre• 35’ height limit

• Max. 25% lot coverage• 2 parking spaces per unit• Mixed use not allowed in

most areas• No design standards

Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace

©

Mountlake Terrace Development Code Now

Multi-family Household Zone Code Requirements:

• No max. density• Max. 50’ height limit in some

areas• Max. 45-65% lot coverage• Min. 1 -2 parking spaces per

unit• Bicycle storage space required• Mixed uses OK• Design standards required

Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace

©

Other Code Changes in Mountlake Terrace

• Standards for most commercial districts overhauled:– Mixed use (res/commercial)

OK– Design standards required– More pedestrian features

required

• More opportunities for townhomes

• Parking standards revised• Permit process made more

efficient

Source: Shane Hope, Mountlake Terrace

©

Masdar, Abu Dabai: 50,000, Solar, Desalination, Elevated light rail, Mollor Sky Cars, Pedestrian

Challenge 4: Breakthrough Thinking

©

Mental Models for Futuring

Stop the futureAdjust and adaptPredict and prepareCreate and lead

©

The future is not something that just happens to us. Glen Hiemstra

Futurist.com

The future is something

we do.