Transition Walthamstow

Paul Gasson

020 8520 0648 / 07979-767274

paul.gasson@gmail.com

Tonight

• What is Transition all about? (15 minutes)

• Mapping exercise and discussion (15 minutes)

• Open floor - hot topics (10 mins)

• Tea break (5 mins)

• Visioning exercise: What do we want for Walthamstow? (30 mins)

• Next steps: (10 minutes)

Transition Fundamentals

• Peak oil

• Climate change

• Transition model

• (Some local projects)

Peak oil - what is it?

Forties field UK sector North Sea

The basic dynamics of oil production:

• A steep initial increase, a production plateau and then a slow but irreversible decline.

• Once the peak is past there are many techniques and technologies that can brought to maximise the declining output, but it is a losing battle and production will never return to it former levels.

A typical oil field

Global oil discovery & production

When will peak oil happen?

Post peak oil producers (64)

www.lastoilshock.com

Oil producers (98)

Where we get our energy

Source: ExxonMobile web site

How many men does it take to push a car?

Why is oil so important?

Transition Training 2007

What do we use oil for?

Economic growth & energy use

What is climate change?

Is it proven?

What are the main problems with out of control CC?

CO2 levels over past 60,000 years

381 ppm

2006

The need for an urgent response

Responses to Peak Oil & Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGE

• Climate engineering• Carbon capture and

storage• International

emissions trading• Climate adaptation• Nuclear power

P O + C C =Systems Re-think

• Planned Relocalisation

• Energy Descent Pathways

• Local Resilience

PEAK OIL

• Burn everything! relaxed drilling

regulations biofuels tar sands & non-

conventional oils

• Resource nationalism

• Resource Wars

Transition ‘recognitions’

1. Life with dramatically lower energy consumption is inevitable.

2. Our communities lack the resilience to withstand the severe energy shocks that will follow peak oil.

3. We have to act collectively and we have to act now.

4. By unleashing the collective genius of those around us we can build better ways of living.

Fundamental principles

• Key goals: reducing energy use & carbon emissions

• Reskilling: relearning lost skills, mending rather than buying new, …

• Satisfying our intrinsic desire for community: William Morris 'fellowship is life, and lack of fellowship is death'

• Catalyst: with no fixed answers, solutions are community led

• Systems resilience: tight feedback, diversity, social capital, innovation, …

• Permaculture principles

Why the transition model works

• Visioning of a positive future• Awareness raising - decide on appropriate

response• Inclusion - everyone is needed, every skill is

valuable• Resilience - building strong local communities• Credible, appropriate solutions• Psychological insights - inner & outer

transitions needed

Psychology of change

• Apocalyptic approach– depression, apathy

• Transition approach– addiction (stuck patterns causing harm),

detox from oil– hope, positive vision, proactivity– community connection & inspiration– inner and outer: be the change you want

to see– joyful, fun

Key Transition stages• Set up a steering group• Raise awareness• Official launch• Form groups e.g. food, energy, transport, economy• Public meetings - open space• Practical projects• Facilitate reskilling• Honour the elders• Energy descent action plan

Totnes: Nut tree capital of Britain• Plantations of modern nut

varieties are much more productive than similar areas of arable crops. Wheat commonly produces between 2-10 tons/acre on good soils.

• On much poorer soils chestnuts have an annual yield of 7-11 tons, pecans 9-11 tons, hazelnuts 9-12 tons, and walnuts 10-15 tons.’

Richard Mabey, ‘Fencing Paradise’.

Lewes pound … The Lewes Pound is driven by three main

considerations: • Economic: Money spent locally stays

within the community & is re-used many times, multiplying wealth and building local economy resilience (NEF)

• Environmental: Supporting local businesses and goods reduces the need for transport & minimises carbon footprint.

• Social: By spending money in local outlets we strengthen the relationships between local shopkeepers and the community.

Our choice• We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we

want to or not. • Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.