Post on 01-Feb-2016
description
‘Trade opportunities for woody biomass end-products from British
Columbia’
B. Verkerk, M. Junginger and A. Faaij (Universiteit Utrecht)
E. Ackom and P. McFarlane (UBC)
Outline
• Objective and Scope • Methodology • Theoretical approach• Results• Conclusions
Objective and ScopeAim:
To assess the biomass market potential for BC under varying scenarios from the present until 2020.
Scope:• Biomass products:
– Pellets & Ethanol
• Different feedstock:– Sawmill residues, Roadside residues & MPB infested trees
• Markets:– BC, US & EU
Methodology
1. Region definition
2. Feedstock inventory
3. Selection of supply chains
4. Specification of cost-supply curves
5. Specification of demand
6. Determination of potential
Theoretical approachSupply chains for woody biomass
Sawmill residues
Roadside residues
MPB killed trees
Transportation
Gathering feedstock
Production end-product
Transportation
Felling of tree
Skidding to roadside
Comminuting at roadside
Hauling by truck
Pellet production Ethanol production
Hauling by truck Hauling by train
Terminal
Stages FeedstockForest
= decision step
Storage Storage
Theoretical approachScenarios
Max:Favorable conditions in production and demanding markets
Min:No significant improvements
End-product scenarios(to international terminal)Sc. 1: Pellet-MaxSc. 2: Pellet-MinSc. 3: Ethanol-MaxSc. 4: Ethanol-Min
Feedstock fully availableGovernmental support Strong competition for feedstock Feedstock sources constrained by government
Feedstock scenarios(to plant gate)Sc. 1: Availability-Max Sc. 2: Pro-activeSc. 3: Reduced cheap feedstockSc. 4: Limited sources
DescriptionName
Theoretical approachScenarios
Feedstock scenario Allocation feedstock (% of total surplus for pellets & ethanol)
Sawmill residues
Roadside residues
MPB infested trees
Scenario 1: Availability-Max Scenario 2: Pro-activeScenario 3: Reduced cheap feedstockScenario 4: Limited sources
100%40%0%50%
100%70%70%100%
100%60%80%n.a.
Feedstock Scenario Governmentalstance
% of total MPB infested trees made available for period 2012-2020
Scenario 1: Availability-Max Scenario 2: Pro-activeScenario 3: Reduced cheap feedstockScenario 4: Limited sources
+++/--
50%50%25%0%
Theoretical approachScenarios
Name of scenario Cost reduction compared to 2007
Feedstock scenarios 2008 2012 2020
Scenario 1: Availability-Max Scenario 2: Pro-activeScenario 3: Reduced cheap
feedstockScenario 4: Limited sources
2%4%1.5%0%
7.8%15.1%5.9%0%
21.5%38.7%16.6%0%
n.b. accounted for inflation rate
Results
Odt = oven dry tonne = 1000kg @ 0% MC
Cost supply curve 'feedstock till plant gate' 2008
010
20304050
607080
90100
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Supply (million Odt/yr)
Co
sts
($
/Od
t)
Sawmill residues
Roadside residues
Results
Cost supply curves feedstock 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Supply (million Odt/yr)
Co
st ($
/Od
t)
Feedstock sc. 1
Feedstock sc. 2
Feedstock sc. 3
Feedstock sc. 4
Cost supply curves feedstock 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Supply (million Odt/yr)
Co
st ($
/Od
t)
Feedstock sc. 1
Feedstock sc. 2
Feedstock sc. 3
Feedstock sc. 4
Results
Cost supply curve Pellet Max scenarios, 2012
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0 25 50 75 100 125 150Supply (PJ/yr)
Co
st
($/G
J)
Pellet Max. FS 1
Pellet Max. FS 2
Pellet Max. FS 3
Pellet Max. FS 4
Demand Max.
Demand Min.
Currently 13.5 PJ produced in 2007
Cost Supply curve Pellet Max/Min 2020
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240
Supply (PJ/yr)
Co
st
($/G
J)
FS. 1 Pellet Max
FS. 1 Pellet Min
FS. 2 Pellet Max
FS. 3 Pellet Min
Demand Max
Demand Min
Results
Results
Cost Supply Curve Ethanol Max 2012
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28
Supply (PJ/yr)
Co
st
($/G
J)
FS 1 Ethanol Max
FS 1 Ethanol Min
FS 2 Ethanol Max
FS 3 Ethanol Max
FS 4 Ethanol Max
Demand Max
Demand Min
Ethanol production volume
Breakdown costs Ethanol Min/Max FS 1 for BC, 2012
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sawm MPB Sawm MPB
$/G
J
transportation to terminal
production (cap+O&M)
storage
transporation
comminution
harvesting
feedstock
revenues
Max scenario Min scenario400 MW
Results
Cost Supply Curve Ethanol Scenarios 2020
15
20
25
30
0 50 100 150
Supply (PJ/yr)
Co
st ($
/GJ)
FS 1 Ethanol Max
FS 1 Ethanol Min
FS 2 Ethanol Max
FS 2 Ethanol Min
FS 3 Ethanol Max
FS 3 Ethanol Min
Demand Max
Demand Min
Ethanol production volume
400 MW
Results
Sensitivity of ethanol plant size: Ethanol Max, FS 1 2020
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 30 60 90 120Supply (PJ/yr)
Co
st (
$/G
J)
100MW output
200MW output
400MW output (Max scenario)
1000MW output
Demand Max
Demand Min
Conclusions
• There is significant market potential for biomass end-products trade from BC.
• Market potential:
Million PJ/yr 2008 2012 2020
Pellets
EU 0 – 18.7 0 – 60.8 0 – 218.0
Ethanol
BC n.a. 0 0 – 19.6
US n.a. 0 0 – 250.1
EU n.a. 0 0 – 88.9
13.5 PJ produced in 2007
Questions?
ResultsPellet costs Vancouver FOB:
Ethanol costs Vancouver FOB :
Cost US$/GJ 2008 2012 2020
Sawmill residues 5.0 – 6.2 4.3 – 6.0 3.6 – 5.4
Roadside residues 6.4 – 7.6 5.8 – 7.2 4.7 – 6.6
MPB trees n.a. 9.4 – 10.8 7.7 – 9.7
Cost US$/GJ 2008 2012 2020
Sawmill residues n.a. 18.5 – 19.0 17.1 – 18.2
Roadside residues n.a. n.a. n.a.
MPB trees n.a. 26.5 – 31.1 21.1 – 25.2
ResultsFeedstock availability:
Feedstock costs:Cost US$/Odt 2008 2012 2020
Sawmill residues 17.0 - 28.4 17.0 - 28.4 17.0 - 28.4
Roadside residues 43.7 - 86.2 40.3 - 79.0 34.3 - 67.4
MPB trees 99.7 - … 95.9 - 109.7 81.7 -103.0
Million Odt’s/yr 2008 2012 2020
Sawmill residues 1.3 1.3 1.3
Roadside residues 5.0 5.5 5.9
MPB trees n.a. 36.7 15.0