Post on 19-Jul-2016
Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to Meet the 2017-2025 CAFE Standards
Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to Meet the 2017-2025 CAFE Standards
NRC Presentation
RE: Assessment of Technologies for Improving Fuel Economy of Light-Duty Vehicles – Phase 2
December 3rd 2012
2
Introduction
I. Technical Roadmap through 2021MY
• Pathways to Improve Fuel Efficiency
• 2017-2021MY Compliance Approach
• Summarize Compliance Prospects
II. Prospects beyond 2021MY
• ICE Improvements
• HV Expansion
• Challenges
Summary
Outline
3
• Toyota appreciates the opportunity to provide the following
technology perspective with regards to the 2017-2025MY
GHG/Fuel Economy Standards.
• In recognition of the previous work conducted by NRC, we
trust that the information provided today will assist NRC in
reaching a reasonable conclusion and making informed
recommendations in the final report.
• Toyota would welcome the opportunity to have further
dialogue with NRC members as a follow-up to the information
that is being provided today.
Introduction
4Presentation Category
I. Toyota’s technical roadmap to comply with
FE/GHG standards through 21MY.
II. Prospects beyond 2021MY.
Pathways to Improved Fuel Efficiency5
Efficiency Improvement
・・・・Reduction of engine emission
・・・・New variable valve sys.・・・・Mass EGR・・・・Next generation D4
・・・・Apply CVT・・・・Staging of A/T・・・・Lock up at low speed
・・・・Weight reduction (with downsizing)
・・・・Reduction of air drag, tire’s RRC, etc
・・・・Energy management
Bio-fuel Vehicles Ethanol capable (E10, E20, E85)Bio diesel
Regional application of vehicles CNG Vehicles
PHV, EV & FCHV’s
Reduction in Vehicle Road Load
・・・・Cost reduction
・・・・Reduction of engine emission・・・・Optimization of HV system
Expand HV applic.
Response to ZEV compliance, move toward full scale application
Fle
et F
ue
l Effic
ien
cy Im
pro
ve
me
nts
Saving Oil
Reducing OilDependency
62017-21MY Toyota Compliance Approach
▼▼▼▼ Technology Deployment Priority▼▼▼▼ Technology Deployment Priority
High priority
1. Advances in ICE Technology
2. Improvements in Drive-train Technology
3. Hybridization: Expand application and improve technology
4. Mass Reduction
5. Improvements in Aerodynamics/Rolling Resistance
6. ATV Introducing
72017-21MY Toyota Compliance Approach
▼▼▼▼ Technology Deployment Priority▼▼▼▼ Technology Deployment Priority
High priority
1. Advances in ICE Technology
2. Improvements in Drive-train Technology
3. Hybridization: Expand application and improve technology
4. Mass Reduction
5. Improvements in Aerodynamics/Rolling Resistance
6. ATV Introducing
8ICE & Drivetrain Technologies
▼ Approach is to improve ICE efficiency in concert with an optimum drivetrain configuration that will enable frequent
operation in the engine’s highly efficient area.
▼ Approach is to improve ICE efficiency in concert with an optimum drivetrain configuration that will enable frequent
operation in the engine’s highly efficient area.
9ICE Improvement Concept
▼ Two distinct approaches for improving the thermal efficiency.▼ Two distinct approaches for improving the thermal efficiency.
Increase CR and/or Lean A/F
Downside: Reduced Peak Power Downside: Increased Knocking Risk
Reduce Energy Losses (friction, heat, etc.)
E.g. Atkinson Cycle E.g. Boosting & Downsizing
10ICE Improvement Concept
Small class conventional engine already operates in high efficiency zone,
so the effect of TDS (expanding efficiency zone) is smaller than large class.
Ne(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)
TR
Q(( ((N
m)) ))
Ne(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)
TR
Q(( ((N
m)) ))
Operating areaOperating area
High efficiency
Zone (original)
High efficiency
Zone (TDS)
High efficiency
Zone (TDS)
Small engine displacement
Large engine displacement
High efficiency
Zone (original)
Small size car Large size car
Downsizing effect
11ICE Improvement Concept
Ne(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)
TR
Q(( ((N
m)) ))
Operating area
High efficiency
Zone (original)
Small engine displacement
Small size car
Improve thermal efficiency of ICE
(Atkinson)
Adapt CVT / THS Synergy for drivetrain application
Increasing maximum thermal efficiency combined with CVT or THS offers
the best approach for small car applications.
Since peak efficiency occurs at lower speed and high torque operation, it is beneficial for CVT or synergy w/THS type application
12ICE Improvement Concept
Ne(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)(rpm)
TR
Q(( ((N
m)) ))
Operating area
High efficiency
Zone (TDS)
Large engine displacement
High efficiency
Zone (original)
Large size car
Incorporate Downsizing
Adapting multi speed A/T, drivetrain enables better use of middle torque area.
Broadening high thermal efficiency area combined with A/T, DCT, offers the
best approach for large size car applications.
Expanding the usable, middle torque area of the ICE can benefit these types of drivetrain applications .
13ICE Technology Penetration
2016MY 2021MY
EPA estimation
Toyota estimation
GDI
Others
Others
GDI
TDS TDS(+GDI)
GDI
TDS(+GDI)
Others
Others
▼ Toyota balance of GDI, TDS and other technologies is predicated on development resources, cost, and required
compliance contribution.
14Drive-train Technology Penetration
2016MY 2021MY
EPA estimation
Toyota estimation
others
6 A/T
DCT
others 6 A/T
8 A/T
DCT
others
6 A/T
8 A/T
CVT
6 A/T
8 A/T
CVT
▼ Rationale for advanced A/T is that performance is comparable to that of DCT while considerable development and manufacturing experience currently exists with this technology.
▼ Rationale for advanced A/T is that performance is comparable to that of DCT while considerable development and manufacturing experience currently exists with this technology.
152017-21MY Toyota Compliance Approach
▼▼▼▼ Technology Deployment Priority▼▼▼▼ Technology Deployment Priority
High priority
1. Advances in ICE Technology
2. Improvements in Drive-train Technology
3. Hybridization: Expand application and improve technology
4. Mass Reduction
5. Improvements in Aerodynamics/Rolling Resistance
6. ATV Introducing
16Toyota Hybrid Technology Improvement
▼ Focus on measures that increase maximum thermal efficiency, as compared to conventional ICE, will offer improved HV F/E.
▼ Focus on measures that increase maximum thermal efficiency, as compared to conventional ICE, will offer improved HV F/E.
17Toyota Hybrid Technology Improvement
▼ Toyota is planning to develop higher thermal efficiency engines to use in future Hybrid Vehicle applications.
▼ Toyota is planning to develop higher thermal efficiency engines to use in future Hybrid Vehicle applications.
18Expansion of Hybrid Vehicle
▼▼▼▼ Why will Toyota focus on hybridization ?▼▼▼▼ Why will Toyota focus on hybridization ?
CO
2 (
g/k
m)
Good
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 Year
20
EV、FCV
Improved Conventional ICE
HV
PHV
Achieving 21MY compliance with only conventional ICE presents a significant challenge.
Mid-size Sedan
19Expansion of Hybrid Vehicle
▼ In short-term, world wide introduction:
▼ In short-term, world wide introduction:
Worldwide
20Strong Hybrid Penetration
▼Toyota believes strong hybrid penetration will be significantly more than what EPA has estimated in the 2021MY timeframe.
▼Toyota believes strong hybrid penetration will be significantly more than what EPA has estimated in the 2021MY timeframe.
EPA estimation
Toyota estimation
Str
ong h
ybrid
penetr
ation r
ate
0%
10%
20%
2021MY2016MY
0%
10%
20%
2016MY* 2021MY *from ONP1 final rule
Str
ong h
ybrid
penetr
ation r
ate
(include mild-HV)
Toyota Only
212017-21MY Toyota Compliance Approach
▼▼▼▼ Technology Deployment Priority▼▼▼▼ Technology Deployment Priority
High priority
1. Advances in ICE Technology
2. Improvements in Drive-train Technology
3. Hybridization: Expand application and improve technology
4. Mass Reduction
5. Improvements in Aerodynamics/Rolling Resistance
6. ATV Introducing
Mass Reduction
Improvement of Fuel economy for 100lb down-weighting
Same ETW
Class
With ETW
rank down
about 0.5%
about 1.5%
(1) Effect of vehicle Down-weighting on fuel economy
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
Base
▲100 lb
Fu
el
Ec
on
om
y I
mp
rove
me
nt
rati
o(%
)
-125lbs
about +0.5%
▲100 lb
+125lbs
Vehicle Test Weight Class (lb)
ETW: Equivalent vehicle Test Weight
about +1.5%
22
2021 Average2016 Average
Ve
hic
le w
eig
ht
Down-weighting
(2) Efforts toward Down-weighting
Increase of customer needs
Safety Reg.etc.
0
Mass Reduction
・Safety Equipment(Around Traffic DetectorAnti Corrision Brake etc)・Comfort Equipment(Power Back Door etc)・Tire Inch Up(w/ wheel, brake) etc.
Improve Fuel Effi.
VVT,VCM
HV/PHV
23
• Increase the rate of high-tension steel
• Low density Plastics
• Adopt Al/Mg/CFRP
• Optimization of structure and Engine displacement and so on (for long-term challenge)
etc.
Down-weighting will need to be increased as the application of ATV expands.
24Mass Reduction
▼▼▼▼Toyota Estimation of Actual Mass Reduction Level▼▼▼▼Toyota Estimation of Actual Mass Reduction Level
2021MY
(EPA estimation)
2016MY
(Toyota estimation)
2021MY
(Toyota estimation)
about -3% -3%
25
Summary of Prospects for 2021MY Compliance
▼ Incorporation of “ICE technology improvement”, “Hybrid vehicle expansion”, “Mass reduction efforts”, among others, will all be
considered in order to meet compliance.
▼ Incorporation of “ICE technology improvement”, “Hybrid vehicle expansion”, “Mass reduction efforts”, among others, will all be
considered in order to meet compliance.
Sto
ich
iom
etric
GD
I
Tu
rbo
/Do
wn
sis
ed
(
18BM
EP
)
Tu
rbo
/Do
wn
siz
ed
(
24BM
EP
)
Tu
rbo
/Do
wn
siz
ed
(
27BM
EP
)
Co
ole
d E
GR
6+ S
pe
ed
AT
6+ S
pe
ed
DC
T
Mild
Hyb
rid (IS
G)
Stro
ng
Hyb
rid
Plu
g-in
HE
V
Ba
ttery
Ele
ctric
Ve
h.
Die
se
l
Ave
rag
e M
as
s
Re
du
ctio
n p
er V
eh
.
2021(EPA) 41% 38% 1% 1% 1% 35% 48% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0% 3%
2021(Toyota) + - + + - = + =~+ =~+ = =
EffectCost
26
Summary of Prospects for 2021MY Compliance
VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY ICM COSTS PER VEHICLE / FUEL CONSUMPTION REDUCTION
(for MY 2017 in 2010 dollars) BY VEHICLE SUBCLASS
MidsizeCar
Manufac.Estimate
LargeLt. Truck
Manufac.Estimate
MidsizeCar
Manufac.Estimate
LargeLt. Truck
Manufac.Estimate
Nominal Baseline Engine (For Cost Basis)
I4 (+,−,=) V8 (+,−,=) I4 (+,−,=) V8 (+,−,=)
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI)
SGDI $268.45 ==== $536.91 ==== 1.5% ==== 1.5% ====
Turbocharging and Downsizing -Level 1 (18 bar BMEP) TRBDS1
$493.60
++++
$620.79
++++
8.3%
−−−− ∼ =∼ =∼ =∼ =
7.3%
====Turbocharging and Downsizing -
Level 2 (24 bar BMEP) TRBDS2 $26.06 $442.27 3.5% 3.4%
▼ With regards to the effect of TDS on fuel consumption, we can agree with EPA’s assumptions. However, EPA’s cost estimate
appears to be too conservative.
▼ With regards to the effect of TDS on fuel consumption, we can agree with EPA’s assumptions. However, EPA’s cost estimate
appears to be too conservative.
27Presentation Category
I. Toyota’s technical roadmap to comply with
FE/GHG standards through 21MY.
II. Prospects beyond 2021MY.
28Prospects beyond 2021MYC
O2
(g
/km
)
Good
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 Year
EV、FCV
ICE
HV
PHV
Continuous improvement of ICE technologies
Further expansion of Hybridization
• Continuous technology development;
• Market acceptance
Required 4.5 percent FE improvement per yearMid-size Sedan
29Improvement of ICE technologyC
O2
(g
/km
)
Good
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
0
2010 2020 2030
20
EV、FCV
HV
PHV
• High thermal efficiency
� High compression ratio
� Boosted engine
� Lean burn, EGR
� Low friction
• Pumping loss reduction
• Engine operation range
Required 4.5 percent FE improvement per yearMid-size Sedan
ICE
Continuous improvement of ICE technologies
30High Compression Ratio
0
5
10
15
0 20 40
Compression Ratio
To
rqu
e (
Nm
)
90RON
100RON
95RON
With Lower RON, knocking
decreases fuel efficiency
▼ (NA Engine) Higher efficiency for all operating conditions with higher compression ratio.
▼ (Downsizing with Boost) Downsizing improve fuel consumption.
▼ (NA Engine) Higher efficiency for all operating conditions with higher compression ratio.
▼ (Downsizing with Boost) Downsizing improve fuel consumption.
Downsizing (%)
(Boosting)
Fuel consum
ption im
pro
vem
ent(
%) + 95 RON Needed: High octane fuel
will secure effective fuel consumption
improvement for boosting downsizing
Ideal(same Pme and SFC)
31Lean Burn Engine
((((AAAAvvvv.... ffffuuuueeeellll ccccoooonnnnssssuuuummmmppppttttiiiioooonnnn wwwwiiiitttthhhh ppppeeeerrrriiiiooooddddiiiiccccaaaallll rrrreeeeccccoooovvvveeeerrrryyyy ccccoooonnnnttttrrrroooollll wwwwhhhheeeennnn ssssuuuullllffffuuuurrrr aaaaccccccccuuuummmmuuuullllaaaattttiiiioooonnnn rrrreeeeaaaacccchhhheeeessss iiiittttssss ccccrrrriiiitttteeeerrrriiiiaaaa aaaatttt rrrreeeeppppeeeeaaaatttteeeedddd FFFFTTTTPPPP))))
((((Fuel consumption without recovery controlFuel consumption without recovery controlFuel consumption without recovery controlFuel consumption without recovery control))))
1111----
Fuel consumption degrading ratio=Fuel consumption degrading ratio=Fuel consumption degrading ratio=Fuel consumption degrading ratio=
S=10ppmS=30ppmS=50ppm
3
4
2
1
0
5
7
6
8
9
10
about 2% improvementabout 2% improvementabout 2% improvementabout 2% improvement
by Sulfur :30→10ppmby Sulfur :30→10ppmby Sulfur :30→10ppmby Sulfur :30→10ppm
Fuel consum
ption
Fuel consum
ption
Fuel consum
ption
Fuel consum
ption
degrading ratio
degrading ratio
degrading ratio
degrading ratio (%
)(%
)(%
)(%
)
Impacts on Fuel Consumption with Sulfur Contents
▼ Lean Burn Engine incurs a fuel penalty for SOx control.
▼ Reducing sulfur from 30 ppm to 10 ppm improves fuel consumption about 2% by lessening need for recovery control.
▼ Lean Burn Engine incurs a fuel penalty for SOx control.
▼ Reducing sulfur from 30 ppm to 10 ppm improves fuel consumption about 2% by lessening need for recovery control.
Lean burn engine needs cyclical
SOx, which is stored at catalyst,
and reduction strategy will incur
a fuel penalty.
Ultra low sulfur gasoline fuel
allows a decrease in fuel penalty
because of the reduced SOx
storage.
32Expand HybridizationC
O2
(g
/km
)
Good
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
0
2010 2020 2030 2040 Year
20
EV、FCV
HV
PHV
Further Expansion of Hybridization
• Continuous ICE development to increase thermal efficiency
• Continuous cost reduction to secure market acceptance
• Continuous ICE development to increase thermal efficiency
• Continuous cost reduction to secure market acceptance
Mid-size Sedan
ICE
Required 4.5 percent FE improvement per year
33Prospects beyond 2021MY - Challenges
Category Approaches Challenge
ICE
Improvements
• High Compression
Ratio
• Lean Burn
� Higher Octane
gasoline is needed
� Low Sulfur (10ppm)
fuel is required
HV Expansion • Additional models
• System for Truck
application
� Fuel Price
� Utility requirements
PHV
Development
• Battery
Improvements
• Range
� Technology
� Infrastructure
accessibility
34Post 2021MY Challenges – Methodology
Credit balance and ability to comply must be monitored in addition to technology
improvement and consumer acceptance.
▼ 2016 MY baseline fleet average less than 35.5 mpg standard. Compliance achieved with credits increasingly consumed in year
generated.
▼ 2016 MY baseline fleet average less than 35.5 mpg standard. Compliance achieved with credits increasingly consumed in year
generated. General Industry Issue
35
▼ Smaller vehicles face higher technology cost up in price sensitive market segment.
▼ Smaller vehicles face higher technology cost up in price sensitive market segment.
FE savings meaningless to consumers if can’t afford purchase price. Economic Payback = affordability, and additional feasibility metrics should be considered.
Post 2021MY Challenges – Methodology
36
▼ Standards set 13 years into future require assumptions critical to technology deployment and compliance with standards.
▼ Standards set 13 years into future require assumptions critical to technology deployment and compliance with standards.
Agency assumptions must be periodically reviewed and feasibility of standards
reconsidered based on new information.
• Preference
• Affordability
• Attitude/Knowledge
• Acceptance of Technologies
• Investment payback
Vehicle Technology
Consumers
Fuels
Economic ConditionsGovernment Policies
• Cost/benefit improvements
• Deployment rates
• Fleet sales mix
• Flexibilities
• Incentives
• Other regulations (safety, fuels, etc.)
• State mandates
• GDP
• Unemployment
• Income levels
• Health of Auto Industry
• Price
• Availability
• Quality/Specs
• Infrastructure
Examples of Uncertainty
Post 2021MY Challenges – Methodology
37
Request
• 10 ppm sulfur and 95 RON octane are necessary for TDS
pathway
• Affordability must be considered in addition to economic
payback and cost/benefit when determining appropriate
standard level
• Agency projections based on uncertain assumptions
(technology cost, performance, fuel price, etc.)
necessitate mid-term review
• More information will become available after NRC report
is published, therefore need additional periodic review
before end of mid-term review
38
Summary
Toyota’s Technology Roadmap to meet 2021MY CAFE standards incorporates ICE improvements, HV expansion, and Drive-train as priority deployment technologies.
Toyota differs from EPA’s technology assessment in the following areas:
• Toyota does not see adoption of TDS as EPA projects for 2021• Toyota differs on drivetrain application from EPA’s projections• Toyota views strong hybrid application will need to be increased
beyond what EPA has estimated for 2021
Beyond 2021MY, prospects to meet compliance goals are difficult to predict with confidence but fuel quality/specifications, technology cost, and market acceptance present major challenges to achieving these standards.
39
End