Topic 1.5 Numerical Model GuidanceIWTC-V (Cairns, Australia, 2002)

Shuyi S. Chen1 and Naomi Surgi2

1University of Miami/RSMAS (USA)2NOAA/NCEP/EMC (USA)

Working Group: S. Braun, I. Ginis, C.-S. Liu, K.Walsh

• Model physics

• Air-sea and air-land coupling

• Vortex initialization (inner-core data assimilations)

• Environmental effects

• Model configuration

Operational Modeling Efforts

• High-resolution atmospheric modeling (impact on intensity and quantitative precipitation forecasting)

• Environmental effects on tropical cyclones• Moist convective processes• Atmospheric boundary layer• Air-sea interface (atmosphere-wave-ocean

coupling)

Research Modeling Efforts

• Structure and Intensity Changes (e.g., eyewall replacement cycle)

• Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting

Special Focus

Uncoupled

Hurricane Floyd (1999)

Sensitivity to Model Resolution

15 km 1.67 km

1.67 km 5 km

Sensitivity to Physical Parameterizations

Braun and Tao (2000)

Braun and Tao (2000)

Hurricane Bonnie

(Simple Ice)(GSFC)