TOMORROW’S CAPITALISMSocial, Lean, Integrated, Circular—And Exponential

(Sozial, Ressourceneffizient, Integriert, Zirkulär und Exponentiell)

Austria Glas Recycling, Vienna, 21-11-2018

• Chairman & Chief Pollinator, Volans

• Co-founded 4 companies since 1978

• Authored or co-authored 19 books

• Member of 70+ Boards and Advisory Boards

Introductions

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The Age of Consequences

Source: New Yorker

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Sources: House of Marbles

Disclaimer/1

Nordic Investment Forum, Copenhagen 18 June 2018

Source: Climate Central

Shanghai: Building China’s Atlantis?

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‘Politicians Discussing Global Warming’, Berlin. Source: Isaac Cordal/PRI

Austria Glas Recycling, Vienna, 21-11-2018

Climate’s off the scaleInternational-Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)

For example, by 2030:

• No Poverty (#1)

• Zero Hunger (#2)

SDGs: ‘Purchase Order From The Future’

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Source: Business & Sustainable Development Commission; Volans

• Global Goals open up 60 “hot spots”

• In just 4 areas: Cities, Energy & Materials, Food & Agriculture; Health & Wellbeing

• $12 trillion a year by 2030 in savings & revenues + >380m jobs

• Economic prize could be 2-3 times larger

Anyone Want 380 Million Jobs?

Austria Glas Recycling, Vienna, 21-11-2018

Sources: House of Marbles

• Social• Lean• Integrated• Circular• Exponential

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Sources: House of Marbles

SOCIAL

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Sources: House of Marbles; Novo Nordisk; Harvard Business Review

SOCIAL: Serving People

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Source: Social Stock Exchange; Unilever

Valuing Impact

Company’s most sustainable brands growing 46% faster—and

contributing 70% of profits.

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Source: The Economist; CNBC

March of the Populists

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Source: Wikipedia; ProjectBreakthrough.io;

Midgley Syndrome: Unintended Consequences

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Sources: House of Marbles

LEAN

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Sources: Kaer; Ellen MacArthur Foundation

LEAN: Everything-As-A Service

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Paul Hawken: Project Drawdown

Image source: Project DrawdownSources: Penguin Books; Project Drawdown

Image sources: XXXImage source: Carbon Productivity Consortium; Covestro

Carbon Productivity/1

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Image sources: XXXImage source: Carbon Productivity Consortium

Carbon Productivity/2

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Image sources: XXXImage source: Carbon Productivity Consortium; Volans

Carbon Productivity/3

Austria Glas Recycling, Vienna, 21-11-2018

Sources: Volans; Innovate UK

Nordic Investment Forum, Copenhagen 18 June 2018

Source: Generation Foundation

The New Growth Engine

‘The Sustainability Revolution

appears to have the scale of the

Industrial Revolution and the

Agricultural Revolution — and the

speed of the Information

Revolution.

- The Generation Foundation, 2017

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Sources: House of Marbles

INTEGRATED

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Source: Ingram Pinn/SustainAbility/Volans, 1991-92

Bringing Tomorrow On Board

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Sources: John Wiley/Capstone Publishing; HBR

Recalling The Triple Bottom Line

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… companies must describe their

strategy for long-term growth.

… must also understand societal impact

of your business as well as the ways that

broad, structural trends — from slow

wage growth to rising automation to

climate change — affect your potential

for growth ...

Larry Fink’s Letter To Shareholders, 2018

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Sources: IIRC; Ashlee Vance

INTEGRATED: Bringing It All Together

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Sources: VW

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Source: Ingram Pinn/SustainAbility/Volans, 1991-92; World Economic Forum

SD, Meet AI

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Sources: House of Marbles

CIRCULAR

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Sources: Plastics Technology

CIRCULAR: Closing Loops

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Sources: XPRIZE Foundation; Circle Economy – The Circularity Gap Report

Closing The Carbon Cycle

Breakthrough business models will deliver cradle-to-cradle value.

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Sources: House of Marbles

EXPONENTIAL

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Image sources: ABS-CBN News

Image source: RethinkX

• Passenger miles will

increase by 50%, from 4

trillion passenger miles in

2015 to 6 trillion passenger

miles in 2030.

• However, revenues

generated will shrink

sharply, from around $1.5

trillion in 2015 to $393 billion

in 2030—a decrease of over

70%

Exponential Disruption: Transportation & Oil

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Image sources: Salim Ismail/Evolution Partners

Exponential Thinking Is Tough

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Sources: _DJ_; OrangeTree Global

Is Our Brain Fit For Purpose?

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Sources: Volans/UNGC/Atlas of the Future/Project Breakthrough

Project Breakthrough: 10X, Not 10%

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Source: SolarImpulse.com

Make-Or-Break Decade

• Email: john@volans.com• Twitter: @volansjohn

Tomorrow’s Capitalism will be Socially Engaged, Leaner, Integrated horizontally, vertically and longitudinally, increasingly Circular—and, above all, Exponential.

Which calls for a new form of Politics.

Austria Glas Recycling, Vienna, 21-11-2018